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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Can I just say, haven't we learnt by now that the bane of every options investor is when they say to themselves "In all probability, x will happen"?

Every time you say to yourself, "I believe x will happen", realize you're taking a chance, there's risk, that x will not happen, at least, not when you predict it.

But go ahead: invest in options if you dare. Just don't make it sound obvious that it will be the best choice. I think that's a mistake.

Exactly.

Ergo, 18 months longer before expiration is that much more time for the stock price, and therefore the option premium, to happen to go your way.
 
Aside from talk here, and the VERY limited number of Magic Doc stations, has Tesla shown any serious interest in this federal funding?

It almost seems that the juice isn't worth the squeeze.
Correct, I don't expect Tesla to apply for NEVI funding. (They haven't started the process in Oregon, for which they only have two more weeks to express interest. But they did have a meeting with Ohio people on their NEVI program...)

But this announcement is the opposite of that. It forces anyone using NEVI funds in Texas to install both CCS and NACS. That would be potentially EA, Loves, Pilot, EVgo, ChargePoint, FreeWire, Blink, Flo, etc. (Tesla already would have had to put in CCS as well as NACS, well I guess they wouldn't have had to put NACS in.)
 
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Investing in TSLA is
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again.
 
I did the same. Loaded up on 2025 LEAPS with strike prices in the 150-180 range. These LEAPS were bought with the intention to exercise come 2025. So I have no intention of selling them.

A Jan 2025 LEAP with a $150 strike price is up today by 6.25% while the stock price closed up 5.54%. So this LEAP is not rising much more quickly than the stock price (albeit with the additional number of shares of the call option). Presumably the difference in gains continues to get smaller as a stock price rises. Why not convert these to shares as the difference in gains becomes small and eliminate the downside risk and the time element?

However, if I had been bolder and bought a ton of 2025 300-400 strike price LEAPS back in Jan, I absolutely would be cashing those in and either buying shares with the proceeds or buying ATM 2025 LEAPS.
The Jan 2025 LEAPs with strike prices $310 and $400 are up 15.19% and 20.64% respectively today.

Why would you keep the $150’s and close the higher strike prices when the higher strike prices rise faster? I put the probability of the share price staying below $400 until Jan 17, 2025 as very low.

I am curious as my reasoning was somewhat different. FYI, I bought all of the above I mentioned though mostly by far $150’s, plus some with $195 strike prices, when the stock price was ~$112 (beginner’s luck 🤷‍♂️).
 
Imagine a Supercharger site where the stalls didn't say "TESLA" like they currently do. They said "NACS". Would you still use it? Would you feel wounded or hurt somehow? It's just a label.

But the large number of other manufacturers jumping in, who will necessarily have to pay for/donate money into Supercharger site installation... face the possibility of paying for "TESLA" to be slapped on every stall... which they won't like or want.

I don't think the car-using public cares or really sees value in "FORD," "VOLVO" or "VW" being at the top of the stall either... it's kinda confusing. If EVGO, Blink, Shell, Exxon or Chevron etc. want to get into this business, are we all going to see different brands? Is that confusing?

The U.S. government, devoting public tax money to Supercharger site installation, won't want one company's name on the stalls. They will want something that is nobody. NACS is that nobody.

My suggestion is that "NACS" gets put onto the Superchargers from now on. The question of whether to go back to the thousands of stalls already deployed and change the names is... up to Tesla and I would expect them to not do that.

To the question "should Tesla spin off the Superchargers into their own company" - do not discount Elon's altruistic bent. He could navigate through this by making a separate company, that government taxmoney would go to, so that the optics are not "hey, Tesla is getting free money from the government!!!" People on all sides of this will have to figure out how to be comfortable with the accounting. Perhaps the company can be structured so that Tesla is the head of the standards body and responsible for channeling new innovations and technologies into NACS - while the rest of the company is simply devoted to installing, permitting, manufacturing and government outreach.

I stretched my photoshopping skills to change a photo of a Supercharger to say NACS on it. But for some reason TMC isn't accepting it :rolleyes:

(Aside: I wish the name of the standard was not NACS. It would be a lot easier to deploy it globally without the geographic reference. I fear that chance has passed... perhaps NACS can simply have another name for non-North American deployments... e.g. "Electric Vehicle Charging System" / EVCS)
Chevron is already involved. And they have vacuums and window washer equipment at every stall. 😊. Used one today. Oh and they are trailer friendly for smaller trailers. (Pull in, back out). These are getting pretty common at chevron sites here in BC. Oh, and they are also co-located with white spot restaurant and town and country convenience stores. On the downside they max out at 150 kw. Meh. They are our go to when hauling the trailer.

Just sayin.

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A Jan 2025 LEAP with a $150 strike price is up today by 6.25% while the stock price closed up 5.54%. So this LEAP is not rising much more quickly than the stock price (albeit with the additional number of shares of the call option). Presumably the difference in gains continues to get smaller as a stock price rises. Why not convert these to shares and eliminate the downside risk and the time element?
I’m in a situation where I’m cash flow positive on a monthly basis and expect a couple significant influxes of cash in the next 1-2 year timeframe. So the intent was to buy the leaps and exercise with the additional cash in 2025. If I just sold the leaps and bought shares, I would have significantly fewer shares in 2 years if the stock price continues higher and I was just buying shares on an ongoing basis on the open market
 
A while (weeks or months, don't remember) ago I said on response to someone here on post showing Omar SF drives that I would be impressed when someone like Rocco starts to get no disengagements drives and it stops doing dumb mistakes on a region that should be really easy

For those that don't follow, his drivers used to be a mess, even on 10.X and even worse before, and his scenario is quite simple for us but totally different than what FSD usually encounters in cities

11.4.4 is impressing me so far, and V11 overall

 
What's "opprobrium"? I have 19 years of formal education, and I have no idea what you mean, what you want, or even what you think is the problem. Zero communication achieved.

This is worse than rampant use of acronyms. Plain language please, as is appropriate for an international audience.
You should be embarrassed rather than indignant.
 
What's "opprobrium"? I have 19 years of formal education, and I have no idea what you mean, what you want, or even what you think is the problem. Zero communication achieved.

This is worse than rampant use of acronyms. Plain language please, as is appropriate for an international audience.
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/di...ste time helping them learn basic vocabulary.
 
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