Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

Yes, ‘investors’ sell shares *when they have to* (for various reasons - retirement/living funds, paying off debt, buying luxury items, donating to charity, paying taxes etc…) and not based on ‘oh, there’s a demand issue’ according to some random guy on the Internet or because the SP might be temporarily negatively affected by some made up consensus number that’s, well, just made up.

And @Unpilot is selling share’s because ^ he’s retired (and has fat feet and is lazy so needs to pay for his therapy sessions).

I'll have you know I identify as "small footed"

Lazy...yes, I will take that one. TSLA has allowed me to sit on my wooden crate (no couches anymore since I shook them so hard they fell apart) and read drivel and post drivel in return.

Thanks to folks like you, I have ton's of drivel to work with.

 

[Electroman]

Remember the Austin, TX ice storm of Feb 2022? The factory was shutdown w/o power for 5 days during that event. Let's estimate what 5 days of unplanned downtime would cost at present productions levels:

1. 5K/week Models Y = 3.57K cars
2. Selling price per car = $47,740 (assuming no options)
3. Gross Margin auto ~20% (WAG; YMMV)
4. Doing the math, that's $34M lost profit

Of course there's other losses too, but that's makes a bty farm w. 64 megapacks pay for itself in about 2 ice storms...

Cheers!

I think that is a very naïve way of looking at it. This is a loss only if those consumers decided to buy a competitors cars. Moreover during an incident like that employees cannot commute to factory either. Roads were impassable for three days and many homes had no heat and water damage with burst pipes and so on.

So production would have been severely hampered even if they had their own power supply.

 

[Electroman]

Since early Friday morning, Twitter.com has required log-in before displaying content, including visiting links to individual tweets:

Twitter down or not working? Current status and problems | Downdetector​

Could you kindly post the text of the tweet that you linked earlier? TIA. Your content was "Ruh-roh": (not informative w/o the context of the tweet)



Folks, I've been warning you for months (if not years) that posting links to tweets w/o also posting the content here is fraught with risks of data disappearance. Now this has happened, globally, to all tweets ever posted here.

IMO this situation is an escalation to the Dowd 0'Clown attack on the safety of FDS. Ironic that he's now PAYING twitter.com to promote his lies. Well, I guess 'freedom of speech' doesn't include 'freedom of reach'...

TL;dr Please post the text of tweets not just the link to the tweet, so that people not logged into twitter.com can view the content, and so that content is preserved offsite.

THANKS!

Sometimes it is an image, so perhaps a screen shot is better than just the text content.

But again, I would strongly recommend everyone to create an account. It is worth it. You definitely don't get any spam emails like in FaceBook.

 

[mongo]

I think that is a very naïve way of looking at it. This is a loss only if those consumers decided to buy a competitors cars. Moreover during an incident like that employees cannot commute to factory either. Roads were impassable for three days and many homes had no heat and water damage with burst pipes and so on.

Accepting labor may not have been available, you can't sell cars you didn't build. Until the lines would have had surplus capacity, a shutdown is lost production and sales.

Beyond the inital loss of power, you really don't want your casting machines and presses losing power mid-cycle (nor any of the other processes). Molten aluminum solidifying where it shouldn't is bad.

 

[AndrewZ]

Speaking of materials, I haven't been spending as much time here lately but haven't seen lithium mentioned in a while as spot futures prices have almost doubled from the (recent) low in April

 

[AMN]

It comes as standard on cars way cheaper than a base model 3. The idea of paying extra for such a common feature would not be popular. Its embarrassing Tesla do not already have it.

Here is Ferrari price list for a couple random things:
- Apple Car Play -- $4219
- Back Radar -- $2767
- HomeLink Garage Opener -- $1350
- Electrochromic Rear View Mirror -- $1350
- Parking Camera -- $2700
- Front and Rear Parking Sensors -- $1519
- Wireless Phone Charger -- $1687

And... drumroll, please...

- Surround View -- $6075

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Here is Ferrari price list for a couple random things:
- Apple Car Play -- $4219
- Back Radar -- $2767
- HomeLink Garage Opener -- $1350
- Electrochromic Rear View Mirror -- $1350
- Parking Camera -- $2700
- Front and Rear Parking Sensors -- $1519
- Wireless Phone Charger -- $1687

And... drumroll, please...

- Surround View -- $6075

FWIW....you can't compare a Ferrari to a Tesla JMHO of course.

 

[hobbes]

FSD Technicians Training to Start 1st July in New Zealand

Same position offered in Germany. Not limited in duration, hope that doesn´t mean we´ll havet to wait forever here ..

There were AP testing position offered before (like a year ago), but these were for software engineers so test driving combined with development. The new positions require less of a qualification, just driving what you´re told and reporting on that.

Autopilot Data Collection Operator / Driver (m/w/d) - Munich | Tesla Karriere

Bewerben Sie sich für die Position als Autopilot Data Collection Operator / Driver (m/w/d) - Munich in Munich, Bavaria.

www.tesla.com

 

[insaneoctane]

Interesting, now we have some Nvidia's H100 performance review vs the A100.

Nvidia H100
700W TDP
BF16 performance compared to A100: 3.2X

Dojo D1 Chip
400W TDP
BF16 performance compared to A100(with Tesla compiler): 3.2X-4X

Looks like D1 Chip has similar performance as Nvidia's latest but using almost half the power. Performance going off chip will be magnitude greater with Dojo's chip on wafer design. This is actually pretty incredible!

Benchmarking Large Language Models on NVIDIA H100 GPUs with CoreWeave (Part 1) | Databricks

The research and engineering teams here at MosaicML collaborated with CoreWeave, one of the leading cloud providers for NVIDIA GPU-accelerated server platforms, to provide a preview of the performance that can be achieved when training large language models (LLMs) with NVIDIA H100 GPUs on the...

www.mosaicml.com

I think seeing Tesla monthly (and yearly) energy consumption (in kWh or MWh) would be fascinating. Between their factories, charging of new battery packs, and compute.....it would be a Wow! number....

 

[cliff harris]

Here is Ferrari price list for a couple random things:
- Apple Car Play -- $4219
- Back Radar -- $2767
- HomeLink Garage Opener -- $1350
- Electrochromic Rear View Mirror -- $1350
- Parking Camera -- $2700
- Front and Rear Parking Sensors -- $1519
- Wireless Phone Charger -- $1687

And... drumroll, please...

- Surround View -- $6075

Yup, people who buy a ferrari get ripped off like crazy on options. This is not news. The fact that pretty basic, cheap mass produced cars have ultrasonic sensors and top down camera views and Teslas do not, at any price, should be concerning to investors.
What exactly would you say, as a Tesla sales person to a potential buyer who asked about park assist features? Tesla's are inferior to almost all other car in that area. The fact that it seem heresy to point this out doesn't change reality.

Even the MG 4 trophy has this feature included at £32,495.

All-New MG4 EV | Fully Electric Hatchback

MG4 EV is an affordable electric hatchback packed with innovation, style and an impressive 281 miles of driving range. Learn more now.

www.mg.co.uk

Model 3 here starts at £42,990.

I make no apology for bringing it up. As an investor, I care if there are competing products with better features at a lower price. I'd still choose the model 3, but it seems like such as easy win for Tesla to just include proper park assist functionality. Its clearly not expensive to include.

What ferraris do, or do not have, is irrelevant to someone buying a £32k car.

 

[Krugerrand]

I'll have you know I identify as "small footed"

Lazy...yes, I will take that one. TSLA has allowed me to sit on my wooden crate (no couches anymore since I shook them so hard they fell apart) and read drivel and post drivel in return.

Thanks to folks like you, I have ton's of drivel to work with.

I identify you as a blatherskite.

 

[wipster]

You make an interesting point having a written history of what happened. It’s just too bad it doesn’t get read in its entirety and gets rewritten all the time.

Many, many times people are corrected here and other places on the Internet about what really happened about this or that only to have the incorrect and outright lies gain traction.

LOL... But, but, but whaddabout?
;-)

 

[Prunesquallor]

Since early Friday morning, Twitter.com has required log-in before displaying content, including visiting links to individual tweets:

Twitter down or not working? Current status and problems | Downdetector​

Could you kindly post the text of the tweet that you linked earlier? TIA. Your content was "Ruh-roh": (not informative w/o the context of the tweet)



Folks, I've been warning you for months (if not years) that posting links to tweets w/o also posting the content here is fraught with risks of data disappearance. Now this has happened, globally, to all tweets ever posted here.

IMO this situation is an escalation to the Dowd 0'Clown attack on the safety of FDS. Ironic that he's now PAYING twitter.com to promote his lies. Well, I guess 'freedom of speech' doesn't include 'freedom of reach'...

TL;dr Please post the text of tweets not just the link to the tweet, so that people not logged into twitter.com can view the content, and so that content is preserved offsite.

THANKS!

Elon, June 30, 2023:
Please advise people to be wary of margin loans. Tesla has always been a high variability stock, often with no obvious rhyme or reason. We are confident about long-term value creation, but cannot control the manic-depressive nature of the stock market.

 

[Baumisch]

Have you signed up?

Isn't that the same for a lot of platforms I. E. Facebook or LinkedIn?
I mean you can't see much content without being a login use (free or paid)

 

[FireMedic]

No, I'm not paying for Twitter.

My ignore button has gone into Plaid mode today

I sometimes get the feeling that certain members here get sad/mad/triggered when the stock price rises

Surely it’s nothing.

 

[2daMoon]

What do you want me to say when they call me for a reference? A consistent story always helps.

I'll let you know. We can burn that bridge when we come to it.

 

[unk45]

Here is Ferrari price list for a couple random things:
- Apple Car Play -- $4219
- Back Radar -- $2767
- HomeLink Garage Opener -- $1350
- Electrochromic Rear View Mirror -- $1350
- Parking Camera -- $2700
- Front and Rear Parking Sensors -- $1519
- Wireless Phone Charger -- $1687

And... drumroll, please...

- Surround View -- $6075

Just compare with the Porsche Tacan I speculated about:

Taycan Turbo S | Porsche Car Configurator

configurator.porsche.com

None of us should ever complain about Tesla S/X Plaid pricing. They're really the 'daily value priced' product with all the 'mod cons' built in.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Speaking of materials, I haven't been spending as much time here lately but haven't seen lithium mentioned in a while as spot futures prices have almost doubled from the (recent) low in April

Probably because it doesn't matter that much. Real-time lithium prices aren't what Tesla pays. From all that I've gathered, they pay an average over X number of months. Not sure if it's 3 months or 6 months, or even longer. You can literally see that in their COGS and from comments directly from management, especially Zach. There's a delay on when Tesla actually realizes the change in price of commodities.

From what management has said, Tesla hasn't even yet realized the massive 60%+ drop in Lithium prices yet.

 

[ggr]

Here's what's going on with Twitter. This is a screen shot.
View attachment 952413

"Verified accounts" ($8/mo) limited to reading 6000 posts/day.
Legacy "unverified" (free) accounts limited to 600 posts/day
New "unverified" (free) accounts limited to 300 posts/day.

Mod: Appreciate the attempt to clarify for people what is going on. However Twitter isn't Tesla, and even though it's a sort-of long weekend the Mods don't want to go down the Elon and Twitter rathole again. A few follow-up posts have been deleted, please don't continue to discuss it here.

Summary: you often need to be logged in to twitter (in another tab or window) to have the cookie that allows you to see tweets that are referenced in a post. And now with rate limiting in effect, it's likely that even then you will get blocked and not see them for a while. So if you do want to reference a tweet, please also copy the text into the post, so that people can read the content if they can't see the tweet.

Personal comment: about 2/3rds of content I see on twitter is ads and promoted crap, so the limit (just raised to 8000/800/400) really doesn't go very far.

--ggr

 

[growler23]

Accepting labor may not have been available, you can't sell cars you didn't build. Until the lines would have had surplus capacity, a shutdown is lost production and sales.

Beyond the inital loss of power, you really don't want your casting machines and presses losing power mid-cycle (nor any of the other processes). Molten aluminum solidifying where it shouldn't is bad.

It seems unlikely that even these Megapacks would keep continuous plant operation through another Feb 2021 style Snowpocalypse like we experienced here. But most of our grid outages occur on smaller timescales than days, and Megapacks would cover many of those.
 I have personally experienced 4 blackouts in the house in Austin that I entered in September 2022. The last one was only seconds, most are hours long. Our grid is really that bad. 38th out of 50 according to US News last year. https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/rankings/infrastructure/energy/power-grid-reliability

Regardless, plant equipment does NOT like outages, and while I cannot speak to Tesla's factories specifically, I know that in general, startup of a plant is the most mishap prone, error inducing, energy inefficient process in its operating regime. Avoid that sh*t whenever possible.