Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

WSJ has a reasonably neutral article on deliveries.

Tesla Deliveries Rose 83% in the Latest Quarter

An interesting comment at the end. Good to have more confirmation that even as buyers know the new vehicle price is dropping compared to what they paid they still prefer the situation to the dealership method.

Some buyers have been frustrated by Tesla’s recent price cuts, which are more visible than the discounts and sales promotions other car companies heap on.

Paul Gassman paid $60,240 for his Model Y in December, after a $3,750 discount and before taxes and fees. Six months later, that same vehicle would have cost $51,490.

“That is the cost of transparency: You know whether you got a good deal or not,” said Gassman, who owns an enterprise-software company and lives outside Jacksonville, Fla. Still, he said, “I think I’d prefer that than being in the dark and feeling good because I really don’t know what the going rate is.”

 

[Unpilot]

So I read the Al Root article.

Tesla Deliveries Are a Record. The Stock Is Rising.

Tesla delivered 466,140 vehicles in the second quarter of 2023. Wall Street was looking for roughly 445,000 to 447,000 units.

www.marketwatch.com

Not so subtle use of information to spin the results negative.

First use a graph showing estimates of production that shows a reduction in growth...not the actual number which would have continued the rise in the graph.

Then show a graph showing the increase in inventory using the actual numbers.

This sort of negative slant that passes for " reporting" continues all the time. Non stop merchant's of doubt.

I hope they find a way to sleep

 

[mongo]

Outside of a Q4/2019 (19450 deliveries), this is the biggest amount of Model S/X delivered in a single quarter for Tesla.

Not so, this may be the highest since Q4/2019, but the deliveries were higher before 2019 (refresh hell)

2018: 99,394 S/X delivered
2017: 101,312
2016 Q4: 22,252
2016 Q3: 24,821

 

[Artful Dodger]

I don't know why Tesla doesn't just publish analysts expectations in the same press release. Control the narrative before the wordsmiths try and do math.

Because they wrap you in pig*sugar*, then beat you with fragrance experience?

 

[kbM3]

Off 3.9% deliveries, though only 1.7% on production.

His production estimates have historically been much closer than his delivery ones... going back 12 quarters he's never been off by more than 2.1% on production (and under 2% all but one of those 12).... same 12 quarters his delivery estimates have been as bad as 5.6% off (in the other direction BTW- this quarter is his worst miss in that period in this direction.

It was pretty interesting how bunched up EVERYONES delivery estimates were though- making just about everyone wrong by roughly that 3.9% or so.... it'll be even more interesting to see if everyone was wrong for the same reason(s) or for different ones.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1675549693810548738

Troy believes more of the analysts are using his predictions and that’s why there is a clumping.

 

[kbM3]

You don't think it was off / wrong for Troy to say


That sounds dangerously close to saying Tesla is demand limited (while avoiding the word demand).

Those "mainly two models" are pumping out the big numbers and show Troy was out of touch on demand (to the negative side).

And that seems to be his trend, negative comments at beginning of the quarter, and constant adjustments towards the consensus as the quarter develops and denial that he was ever off to begin with. His tone is always like the prior prediction never existed.

Why shouldn't we complain if he repeats that pattern?

Troy has flatly stated he believes Tesla is demand limited in some regions.

 

[petit_bateau]

So, they will >10x production in a year in GigaTexas...

Can they 10x cell production though ?

These are the reported numbers

and this is what I had been expecting (based on Troy) , so I'd say that is OK, and nice to see S/X stable vs concerns

 

[InDaClub]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1675561595613720590

Tesla Vehicle Production & Deliveries and Date for Financial Results & Webcast for Second Quarter 2023​

Business Wire

Jul 2, 2023

AUSTIN, Texas, July 2, 2023 – In the second quarter, we produced nearly 480,000 vehicles and delivered over 466,000 vehicles.

 

[CHGolferJim]

I just received this message from a Moderator who chose not to be identified:
"...This is a pretty blatant attempt to spin up a troll thread so I am deleting it. Dont (sic) do this again or I will take action against your account."
I cannot respond to the Moderator in question because I cannot identify who it was. I wish to say that if said Moderator wants me to leave please advise me directly with identification. I will delete my account and cease posting if that is your wish.

I apologize for posting this in this location, especially on such a stellar day for Tesla and Tesla investors. I know not where better to post this.
I do respect Moderator decisions even if they are in the form above. So, to be compliant, this will be my last post until I have received clarification.

I wonder what would result if readers were polled whether they would prefer future participation from you or this moderator?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

So I read the Al Root article.

Tesla Deliveries Are a Record. The Stock Is Rising.

Tesla delivered 466,140 vehicles in the second quarter of 2023. Wall Street was looking for roughly 445,000 to 447,000 units.

www.marketwatch.com

Not so subtle use of information to spin the results negative.

First use a graph showing estimates of production that shows a reduction in growth...not the actual number which would have continued the rise in the graph.

Then show a graph showing the increase in inventory using the actual numbers.

This sort of negative slant that passes for " reporting" continues all the time. Non stop merchant's of doubt.

I hope they find a way to sleep

Prolly cause 420 new "Tesla Killers" are on the way to kill the already increasing 'demand problem'

 

[wipster]

So I read the Al Root article.

Tesla Deliveries Are a Record. The Stock Is Rising.

Tesla delivered 466,140 vehicles in the second quarter of 2023. Wall Street was looking for roughly 445,000 to 447,000 units.

www.marketwatch.com

Not so subtle use of information to spin the results negative.

First use a graph showing estimates of production that shows a reduction in growth...not the actual number which would have continued the rise in the graph.

Then show a graph showing the increase in inventory using the actual numbers.

This sort of negative slant that passes for " reporting" continues all the time. Non stop merchant's of doubt.

I hope they find a way to sleep

Plus this quote from the article: "Tesla has produced about 99,000 more cars than it has sold over the past few years" which seems to insinuate that Tesla is currently sitting on almost 100k of unsold cars! Granted it depends how you read it, but the uninitiated might actually believe the above.

Not only is a substantial portion of the "inventory" vehicles in transit that will be delivered and sold but the that figure itself is a snapshot and the actual amount of unsold vehicles is a very small portion of the total... it is not cumulative. Mr. Root should delete that sentence imho.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Plus this quote from the article: "Tesla has produced about 99,000 more cars than it has sold over the past few years" which seems to insinuate that Tesla is currently sitting on almost 100k of unsold cars! Granted it depends how you read it, but the uninitiated might actually believe the above.

Not only is a substantial portion of the "inventory" vehicles in transit that will be delivered and sold but the that figure itself is a snapshot and the actual amount of unsold vehicles is a very small portion of the total... it is not cumulative. Mr. Root should delete that sentence imho.

Nah, he should use more "Tesla Killers" in this article. It's just not the same without them!

 

[Pezpunk]

I just received this message from a Moderator who chose not to be identified:
"...This is a pretty blatant attempt to spin up a troll thread so I am deleting it. Dont (sic) do this again or I will take action against your account."
I cannot respond to the Moderator in question because I cannot identify who it was. I wish to say that if said Moderator wants me to leave please advise me directly with identification. I will delete my account and cease posting if that is your wish

i could tell you who it was, but they'd probably ban me.

 

[LodiEVFan]

I wonder what would result if readers were polled whether they would prefer future participation from you or this moderator?

No contest! unk45 by a landslide. And that does not imply disrespect for the moderators.

 

[Stretch2727]

Not only is a substantial portion of the "inventory" vehicles in transit that will be delivered and sold but the that figure itself is a snapshot and the actual amount of unsold vehicles is a very small portion of the total... it is not cumulative. Mr. Root should delete that sentence imho.

The inventory number is cumulative. A car produced in Q2 will be delivered Q3 and counted as delivered then. The gap accumulates as financial inventory but they are not all "unsold" cars as some are ordered.

When you account for the cars ordered but not delivered the number is way less than 99K in "unsold" inventory. I am sure Tesla is always putting some extra unsold cars on ships when the transit time is long. It only make sense to try to anticipate the future orders to lower shipping costs and wait times when you have 6-8 weeks of transit times in some cases.

 

[wipster]

The inventory number is cumulative. A car produced in Q2 will be delivered Q3 and counted as delivered then. The gap accumulates as financial inventory but they are not all "unsold" cars as some are ordered.

When you account for the cars ordered but not delivered the number is way less than 99K in "unsold" inventory. I am sure Tesla is always putting some extra unsold cars on ships when the transit time is long. It only make sense to try to anticipate the future orders to lower shipping costs and wait times when you have 6-8 weeks of transit times in some cases.

I think you missed my point... the unsold vehicles (which are what I call actual inventory) don't just keep adding up, they eventually get sold. If they didn't get sold it would stick out like a sore thumb on the balance sheet.

While inventory is a calculated number (production minus deliveries) for this release, I wish it included a separate column for inventory showing the amount in transit vs. the cars currently on the lot. It might help clear up some misconceptions.

 

[Curt Renz]

"Tesla's Record-Breaking Q2 is a BIG Deal."​

Mesbahi - this afternoon:

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm not as I think many of their projected COGS reductions will be coming to fruition in the 2nd quarter, much more than the first. Would have to research to see how any 1st qtr. price reductions have impacted 2nd qtr. revenue though. People don't take into consideration how price reductions/increases don't immediately move the needle, since vehicles sold won't hit the books until the next quarter at the earliest. Then again, that means we may see the impact of the massive price reductions in Q1 in Q2 financials so I understand your concern Krug, just thinking lower COGS will more than offset it.

Guess we'll know in a couple weeks eh?

I’m not concerned about margins. You’ll pretty much notice everyone ‘laughed’ on the original post. Those peeps get me.

I was being sarcastic as usual. Since P&D numbers can no longer be attacked, and demand up a crick without a paddle can’t be leaned into, the go to ‘issue’ is now going to be - but, but, but margins. I was just preparing everyone for that.

I’ll start getting concerned about margins if they go negative. At this point I’m fully prepared to watch them tick down to zero, all the while Tesla sells 10’s of millions of cars.

 

[Christine69420]

I’ll start getting concerned about margins if they go negative. At this point I’m fully prepared to watch them tick down to zero, all the while Tesla sells 10’s of millions of cars.

So all margins will be 8.3% this quarter. Got it.

 

[wipster]

I’m not concerned about margins. You’ll pretty much notice everyone ‘laughed’ on the original post. Those peeps get me.

I was being sarcastic as usual. Since P&D numbers can no longer be attacked, and demand up a crick without a paddle can’t be leaned into, the go to ‘issue’ is now going to be - but, but, but margins. I was just preparing everyone for that.

I’ll start getting concerned about margins if they go negative. At this point I’m fully prepared to watch them tick down to zero, all the while Tesla sells 10’s of millions of cars.

I normally "get you" but that one went past me.

But, but, but whaddaout?

Ha, CyberTruck, Highland refresh, Gen 3... I see big things in Tesla's future and hopefully the SP!