Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TrendTrader007]

FWIW, I both believe that you are making a ton of money with your options trading, and that a lot of your messages are not very useful - but surely entertaining - for investors in this forum.
You've demonstrated multiple times that you're risk tolerance is borderline pathological. You've gone all in and then all out multiple times, changing your mind in a split second. Good for you if this works.
Mind you, I follow you from the very beginning, I remember the waves you made when you arrived in this forum.

I'm sure in the end you are doing 1000x better than I'm doing, but for the average investor you are quite a dangerous example.
I'd make a lot of money betting that random investors following your strategies would lose a gigazillion dollars.
Alex Honnold doesn't rile up people going free solo because he knows his relationship with fear is vastly different from the average people.

M2c.

I have a very good response to this post (some thing that the late billionaire Sheldon Adelson said), but I will take the highroad. I will let you have the satisfaction of having the last word, and the last laugh.

 

[dhanson865]

Worth noting that his forecasts, especially for production of vehicles, tend to be wildly optimistic... he had almost 50k semis coming out of Gigatexas in 2021 in one of his late 2020 "next year of production" estimates for example... and over 25k cybertrucks- plus the new compact selling thousands by Q4 2021 and overall 2021 production up 120% from 2020... even when he revised them in mid 2021 he had semis and CTs still shipping that year and was still significantly too high on production everywhere esp. new factories.

I agree his graphs are very pretty though.

For example here's one from his forecast posted just over 1 month ago.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1655353671486517249

He's projecting about 520,000 deliveries in Q2. The one ending next week- for which Troy is at 441k and analyst consensus is at 448k.

He was definitely over the actual of ~466,140 with his guess of 520,000 (on May 7th) compared to Troy at 441k and troy's earlier go at 429k (from April 9).


If you had taken Troys 441k from June and James' 520k from May and averaged them you would have had 480.5k which is very close to spot on for Production (high for deliveries).

In reality neither of those guesses on their own is good enough to get kudos.

Spoiler: Troy's 429k

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/attachments/screenshot_20230702_094130_twitter-jpg.952640/

fwiw James has some competition to be the most optimistic.

 

[gtrplyr1]

Congrats to TESLA on a fantastic quarter of production and deliveries.

I will echo other's sentiments regarding margins as I'm in the camp that believes those large margins are helping to drive the SP. While Tesla's margins are light years ahead of any of the other traditional automakers, it's multiple is as well and therefore decreased margins could have a dramatic effect on SP.

I'm certainly NOT in the camp that is comfortable with margins in the single digit range and would argue that price increases (to a point) are fine as Tesla can afford to sell fewer cars as long as the profit margins are maintained. I will use Apple as my example here. I'm a longtime AAPL investor, over 20 years, and I've watched as Apple has done a stellar job maintaining their margins, which are also far superior to their counterparts. Apple has NEVER sold more phones than are on the android platform but the phones on that platform are generally commodities and sold with very little profit margin. Apple has repeated time and time again that they are not after that customer. Things get tricker with Tesla as Musk is really not concerned with profits and I'm sure would easily give up those margins (and most profit) in order to further the mission and get the world switched over to EVs. While I love that idea as a human being, I don't love it as an investor and I very much doubt Wall Street will either.

Let's see what the margins are like in a few weeks. I'm hoping that they won't be too far from last quarter's numbers as Tesla stated that they are experiencing lower input costs as well as increased efficiencies in the production process. I do understand that long term, FSD sales to existing cars(sold at lower margins) will help to generate margins that are spectacular and that having this "installed base" is eventually a good thing for Tesla, unfortunately this is probably not going to happen for several years. I'm a regular user of FSD and while it's pretty darn good (great in several cases) it's nowhere near ready for prime time. Needed FSD updates along with the government regulation that is sure to come will mean that we've got a few years left before my Model Y is out there earning some money while I sleep.

BUT ... for now .... we celebrate!

Cheers to the longs

 

[strago13]

They went from 10695 Model S/X delivered last quarter to 19255 this

One of the x’s was us, we couldn’t resist the incentives

 

[FSDtester#1]

One of the x’s was us, we couldn’t resist the incentives

Three new X's came back to Elon per the judge and a recent paternity test....

 

[AMN]

Congrats to TESLA on a fantastic quarter of production and deliveries.

I will echo other's sentiments regarding margins as I'm in the camp that believes those large margins are helping to drive the SP. While Tesla's margins are light years ahead of any of the other traditional automakers, it's multiple is as well and therefore decreased margins could have a dramatic effect on SP.

I'm certainly NOT in the camp that is comfortable with margins in the single digit range and would argue that price increases (to a point) are fine as Tesla can afford to sell fewer cars as long as the profit margins are maintained. I will use Apple as my example here. I'm a longtime AAPL investor, over 20 years, and I've watched as Apple has done a stellar job maintaining their margins, which are also far superior to their counterparts. Apple has NEVER sold more phones than are on the android platform but the phones on that platform are generally commodities and sold with very little profit margin. Apple has repeated time and time again that they are not after that customer. Things get tricker with Tesla as Musk is really not concerned with profits and I'm sure would easily give up those margins (and most profit) in order to further the mission and get the world switched over to EVs. While I love that idea as a human being, I don't love it as an investor and I very much doubt Wall Street will either.

Let's see what the margins are like in a few weeks. I'm hoping that they won't be too far from last quarter's numbers as Tesla stated that they are experiencing lower input costs as well as increased efficiencies in the production process. I do understand that long term, FSD sales to existing cars(sold at lower margins) will help to generate margins that are spectacular and that having this "installed base" is eventually a good thing for Tesla, unfortunately this is probably not going to happen for several years. I'm a regular user of FSD and while it's pretty darn good (great in several cases) it's nowhere near ready for prime time. Needed FSD updates along with the government regulation that is sure to come will mean that we've got a few years left before my Model Y is out there earning some money while I sleep.

BUT ... for now .... we celebrate!

Cheers to the longs

Only growth matters. At least to those concerned with long-term wealth accumulation.

 

[AndrewZ]

I’m not concerned about margins. You’ll pretty much notice everyone ‘laughed’ on the original post. Those peeps get me.

I was being sarcastic as usual. Since P&D numbers can no longer be attacked, and demand up a crick without a paddle can’t be leaned into, the go to ‘issue’ is now going to be - but, but, but margins. I was just preparing everyone for that.

I’ll start getting concerned about margins if they go negative. At this point I’m fully prepared to watch them tick down to zero, all the while Tesla sells 10’s of millions of cars.

Were people attacking P&D numbers? Tesla stock is up like 140% YTD as of Friday's close, and even the optimistic observers had deliveries around that 450,000 number that was blown out of the water.

All of the vehicles will move, the question is at what prices and this is of course something Elon is very cognizant of as he has repeatedly commented about there being plenty of demand but price being the driving factor.

It'll be interesting if we get some insight into what produced this beat that was so massively above almost everyone's estimates, bulls and bears alike.

 

[MartinAustin]

Were people attacking P&D numbers? Tesla stock is up like 140% YTD as of Friday's close, and even the optimistic observers had deliveries around that 450,000 number that was blown out of the water.

All of the vehicles will move, the question is at what prices and this is of course something Elon is very cognizant of as he has repeatedly commented about there being plenty of demand but price being the driving factor.

It'll be interesting if we get some insight into what produced this beat that was so massively above almost everyone's estimates, bulls and bears alike.

Hand-in-hand with the crystal clear improvements at their factories - i.e. manufacturing - was the amazing growth in deliveries, i.e. they were able to harness enough cargo ships, trucks, transporters, delivery center logistics and every other step that prevents a massive clog of vehicles following a 90% increase in manufacturing.

Tesla cannot be accused of "failure to execute" - they are, in fact, striking while the iron is hot and killing it.

 

[AndrewZ]

Hand-in-hand with the crystal clear improvements at their factories - i.e. manufacturing - was the amazing growth in deliveries, i.e. they were able to harness enough cargo ships, trucks, transporters, delivery center logistics and every other step that prevents a massive clog of vehicles following a 90% increase in manufacturing.

Tesla cannot be accused of "failure to execute" - they are, in fact, striking while the iron is hot and killing it.

I'd definitely think that's something of the expectation considering the stock's performance over the last six months, failing companies are not seeing 140% YTD increases while interest rates have shot up around the world.

It's not like 450k was some super bearish estimate though, the actual numbers were way above basically everyone's expectations and I'm sure many are curious what everyone missed

 

[Drumheller]

I'd definitely think that's something of the expectation considering the stock's performance over the last six months, failing companies are not seeing 140% YTD increases while interest rates have shot up around the world.

It's not like 450k was some super bearish estimate though, the actual numbers were way above basically everyone's expectations and I'm sure many are curious what everyone missed

I see multiple posts referencing tsla rising so much this year, but that is after a 75% decline. Tsla is still quite a bit below its value nearly two years ago so the rise so far is a recovery, not a run, in my opinion.

 

[H Mak]

Blimey. Front page of The Telegraph

 

[Stretch2727]

I think you missed my point... the unsold vehicles (which are what I call actual inventory) don't just keep adding up, they eventually get sold. If they didn't get sold it would stick out like a sore thumb on the balance sheet.

While inventory is a calculated number (production minus deliveries) for this release, I wish it included a separate column for inventory showing the amount in transit vs. the cars currently on the lot. It might help clear up some misconceptions.

Got it.

They used to report "intransit" but even then we were not sure if they were inventory or cars ordered by customers.

What I would really like to see the actual backlog of undelivered real orders. Most companies watch this closely. My guess is it is not too far off the 99K "inventory" number with some in transit and some still needing to be produced. My point is even though backlog is not a one to one match of each car produced and not delivered, it shows in total dollars the cars are already spoken for.

 

[unk45]

I wonder what would result if readers were polled whether they would prefer future participation from you or this moderator?

The moderator in question has nothing to do with any Investor threads. I might have known that nobody here would have been responsible. I owe apologies for posting here. However, this did result in immediate clarification. I am much relieved.

Now I return to elation with Tesla’s results!

Thanks for supportive comments, which were reciprocated by Moderator here!

 

[AndrewZ]

I see multiple posts referencing tsla rising so much this year, but that is after a 75% decline. Tsla is still quite a bit below its value nearly two years ago so the rise so far is a recovery, not a run, in my opinion.

Comparing different company stock performance over this period gets tough because it all needs to be taken on context with performance from the start of the pandemic, but the companies that are struggling are still down 80-90% from their highs (and there are plenty of those)

I'm sure people are thinking okay okay but Apple is above its high, Microsoft is above its high, but Apple is up 140% from when the pandemic hit in 2019 and Microsoft is up 85% -- Tesla is up 390% since the start of the pandemic. In terms of performance since the pandemic, Tesla is just like one notch below NVIDIA.

 

[Unpilot]

I see multiple posts referencing tsla rising so much this year, but that is after a 75% decline. Tsla is still quite a bit below its value nearly two years ago so the rise so far is a recovery, not a run, in my opinion.

This is correct.
Any rise in the SP has to be measured against the rather dramatic fall from the recent ATH.

 

[JRP3]

So, down 5% tomorrow?

 

[AndrewZ]

This is correct.
Any rise in the SP has to be measured against the rather dramatic fall from the recent ATH.

Everything fell, lots still haven't recovered. Going through names as of Friday compared to just before the pandemic craziness, I think Tesla is the #2 megacap performer in the NASDAQ second only to NVIDIA.

TSLA is highly volatile in general so you'd expect higher highs and lower lows, but there almost isn't another big name you could have bought in late 2019 to early 2020 that has performed better

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Seems even more impressive to me considering they didn't do the end of quarter delivery frenzy like they used to

 

[AudubonB]

That's the thing about opinions...we all have them.

Your opinion is I have one dimensional thinking and a lack of understanding.
Since I don't know you, I will refrain from such a characterization.

My opinion is the outsized focus on quarterly reports is silly.

You can take the A LOT position....I'll take the not so much opinion.

Here is something no one can suggest is snark, and something you might consider an olive branch.

The truth, not an opinion, is that I happen to agree with not your statement but with your position. I detest beyond words (even for me!) this focus on quarterly reports.
More than that being mere wishful thinking, for years I pounded the table on it within my Wall St firm how my colleagues were bozos for gushing over their geniusness or bewailing their fates four times a year because of same. Whatever brickbats are thrown at me on TMC are less than gnats' sneezes compared to what would happen to me there.

Time after time on TMC I have written how I was weaned on the concept of long-term investing and how one-quarter's data are at best only four times less important than a mere year's worth...which itself need be taken in context of the long term.
More than that, however, it was over one decade ago that within these pages I wrote how Tesla, uniquely among industrial firms and most deliciously, amongst other auto manufacturers, could cut off at their knees all those in Wall St who use such data for their maleficent designs; I shall repeat it here.

The DataKing that is Tesla knows within seconds every production datum, every delivery datum, every Final Sales datum throughout the ENTIRE world.
Every. Last. One. There is no squishysquashy about being delivered to a third-party dealer - not an end user - any particular quantum, since part of Tesla's genius, as we all know, is that there are no dealers.

The above being the case, in 2013 I wrote both here and in a long missive to then-IR Director Jeff Evanson that Tesla ought to provide these data every twenty four hours. Day after day after week after month. It was an easy enough task a decade ago; now with Tesla's global presence it is not more but less difficult, as the hiccup caused on a Tuesday because of twelve car carriers leaving Fremont, with Tesla producing tens of thousands of vehicles annually! now is counterbalanced by this Ro-Ro disgorging in Rotterdam even as that one is being loaded in Shanghai, with Tesla producing millions each year.

Summary: end the Quarterly malarkey by dialing it up to 91-92 times as fast. The spinmeisters' heads never would stop spinning.

 

[woof]

I identify you as a blatherskite.

Holy fluff! Since when does the Golden cat lady have more grandiloquence then the Bird Watcher guy? For snark I have you both at equal, but as I'm often bewildered by the Birding guy, I give the edge to @Krugerrand. And now she pulls off unprecedented eloquence?