Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

"Tesla Crushes Expectations with Record Delivery Report!"​

Tesla Daily - this afternoon:

 

[Hock1]

I see multiple posts referencing tsla rising so much this year, but that is after a 75% decline. Tsla is still quite a bit below its value nearly two years ago so the rise so far is a recovery, not a run, in my opinion.

In my 5 decade experience, there is no logic to the momentary valuation of a very controversial and fast-growing company. I.e., one cannot use past historical performance of seemingly similar companies in their particular trajectory and claim that this (our) company should have a similar MC based on past performance of other companies. This is one of the many reasons HODLing is the only way to build capital. Don't try to guild the lily.

 

[strangethingintheland]

Here is something no one can suggest is snark, and something you might consider an olive branch.

The truth, not an opinion, is that I happen to agree with not your statement with but your position. I detest beyond words (even for me!) this focus on quarterly reports.
More than that being mere wishful thinking, for years I pounded the table on it within my Wall St firm how my colleagues were bozos for gushing over their geniusness or bewailing their fates four times a year because of same. Whatever brickbats are thrown at me on TMC are less than gnats' sneezes compared to what would happen to me there.

Time after time on TMC I have written how I was weaned on the concept of long-term investing and how one-quarter's data are at best only four times less important than a mere year's worth...which itself need be taken in context of the long term.
More than that, however, it was over one decade ago that within these pages I wrote how Tesla, uniquely among industrial firms and most deliciously, amongst other auto manufacturers, could cut off at their knees all those in Wall St who use such data for their maleficent designs; I shall repeat it here.

The DataKing that is Tesla knows within seconds every production datum, every delivery datum, every Final Sales datum throughout the world.
Every. Last. One. There is no squishysquashy about being delivered to a third-party dealer - not an end user - any particular quantum, since part of Tesla's genius, as we all know, is that there are no dealers.

The above being the case, in 2013 I wrote both here and in a long missive to then-IR Director Jeff Evanson that Tesla ought to provide these data every twenty four hours. Day after day after week after month. It was an easy enough task a decade ago; now with Tesla's global presence it is not more but less difficult, as the hiccup caused on a Tuesday because of twelve car carriers leaving Fremont, with Tesla producing tens of thousands of vehicles annually! now is counterbalanced by this Ro-Ro disgorging in Rotterdam even as that one is being loaded in Shanghai, with Tesla producing millions each year.

Summary: end the Quarterly malarkey by dialing it up to 91-92 times as fast. The spinmeisters' heads never would stop spinning.

This. Providing daily transparency would overwhelm the prognosticaters, naysayers, analysts, axe-to-grinders, etc. There would be an initial feeding frenzy and then a gradual die-down to silence, nothing else to say, because the data would say it all. Or at least I would hope so.

Nominate for post of particular merit.

 

[jerry33]

Not so, this may be the highest since Q4/2019, but the deliveries were higher before 2019 (refresh hell)

2018: 99,394 S/X delivered
2017: 101,312
2016 Q4: 22,252
2016 Q3: 24,821

Technically yes, but those earlier numbers included the 75 kWh model which was discontinued when the Model 3 came out as many people bought the 75 kWh model as an inexpensive vehicle. It would have been better if they would have said high capacity battery models S/X.

 

[AMN]

In my 5 decade experience, there is no logic to the momentary valuation of a very controversial and fast-growing company. I.e., one cannot use past historical performance of seemingly similar companies in their particular trajectory and claim that this (our) company should have a similar MC based on past performance of other companies. This is one of the many reasons HODLing is the only way to build capital. Don't try to gild the lily.

Exactly. Also, using GAAP to value a fast growing disruptor is also silly.

 

[FSDtester#1]

The moderator in question has nothing to do with any Investor threads. I might have known that nobody here would have been responsible. I owe apologies for posting here. However, this did result in immediate clarification. I am much relieved.

Now I return to elation with Tesla’s results!

Thanks for supportive comments, which were reciprocated by Moderator here!

Not so sure, not only do the mods here regularly ban me they also put nails in my tires... watch out! 9th new tire in 2 years, thanks mods!

/s

 

[AudubonB]

In my 5 decade experience, there is no logic to the momentary valuation of a very controversial and fast-growing company. I.e., one cannot use past historical performance of seemingly similar companies in their particular trajectory and claim that this (our) company should have a similar MC based on past performance of other companies. This is one of the many reasons HODLing is the only way to build capital. Don't try to gild the lily.

Or paint refined gold?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1675584526305710082

Bears gonna be hanging on to this narrative like it's the last piece of driftwood after the Titanic sank

 

[Unpilot]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1675584526305710082

Bears gonna be hanging on to this narrative like it's the last piece of driftwood after the Titanic sank

The answer of when to load up is ....always and now.

At least for the next few years.

 

[AudubonB]

Oh, yes. Because since Time t=0 Mr Musk has reiterated that the only thing that matters is earnings. Yes, PR, you absolutely nailed it. How could any of us ever have thought otherwise?

Of course, there always is the third of my siglines. Hope those reading on a phone screen can see it....

 

[Carl Raymond]

Please correct me if I’m wrong, but when I look at these numbers I see Tesla in a beautiful position, a production doubling in waiting.
Texas and Berlin are lagging Shanghai by 180k each per qtr.
If project highland boosts model 3 capacity by another 100k per qtr , that’s 460k/qtr of untapped capacity.
The next doubling could happen fast, given no new factories required. Cell supply is back to being the limiting factor, yes?
Hopefully the earnings report will include some good news on 4680 ramp.
Cybertruck for show. FSD capable cars for dough.

 

[SPadival]

So Troy at -3.86% ,well outside his stated goal, now what??

Stop pretending that he’s Nostradamus?

 

[wipster]

<snip>
Bears gonna be hanging on to this narrative like it's the last piece of driftwood after the Titanic sank

Let that sink in...

 

[wipster]

I see multiple posts referencing tsla rising so much this year, but that is after a 75% decline. Tsla is still quite a bit below its value nearly two years ago so the rise so far is a recovery, not a run, in my opinion.

And soon the SP will have risen 200% this year, tripling in value...

My number's bigger, do I win?

/s

 

[EVWatcher]

Robinhood 24 hour markets - which don’t really mean a whole lot - have tesla up 5% since it opened 5 minutes ago.

Edit: 6.57% now

 

[Singuy]

Robinhood 24 hour markets - which don’t really mean a whole lot - have tesla up 5% since it opened 5 minutes ago.

Edit: 6.57% now

My tsla is not moving on RH, anything special you have to do?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Well, we knew something like this was coming:

BYD Beat Tesla in China Again. This Is a Two-Horse Race, Though.

Sunday, BYD 251,685 electrified passenger vehicles sold in June. For the second quarter that means BYD sold more than 700,000 EVs, up almost 100% over last year.

www.barrons.com

Of course it's misleading...but what do we expect from Barrons.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

My tsla is not moving on RH, anything special you have to do?

$TSLA must have been halted so that WS can validate the HUMOUNGOUS BEAT! MM's do not know what to do so they requested trading to be halted before they can come up with a game plan prior to pre-market trading.

 

[EVWatcher]

My tsla is not moving on RH, anything special you have to do?

Robinhood has a weird interface, which is weird considering that’s kinda what they were supposed to be good at, but you have to enable 24 hour market somehow. I don’t remember how I did it

 

[madodel]

Robinhood 24 hour markets - which don’t really mean a whole lot - have tesla up 5% since it opened 5 minutes ago.

Edit: 6.57% now

The Manipulating Felons haven't had the opportunity to manipulate much. Short day tomorrow and then market is closed on Tuesday. All the MFers are on Vacay in the Hamptons for the holiday. Hopefully they'll be away all week and TSLA will just do what TSLA needs to do.