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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Separately from this industry standard 'days of inventory' articulation of vehicles in inventory/transit:
As long as we all remember that TSLA numbers are NOT , repeat NOT industry standard. No TSLA calculation of "days of inventory" is industry standard. Many fo us keep repeating this even though it is absolutely untrue.
First, sales: from General Motors 2022 10K
"For the majority of vehicle and accessories sales, our customers obtain control and we recognize revenue when the vehicle transfers to the dealer, which typically occurs either when the vehicle is released to the carrier responsible for transporting it to a dealer or upon delivery to a dealer."

Second, inventory:
In theory the reported numbers aggregate both GM owned new vehicles, ones in transit and in dealer lots. However these numbers are not governed by the same rules as are GAAP reports and depend on manipulable data. Dealers and OEM's can manage this process and reporting in multiple ways. Unlike sales, which are as shown above the inventory classification is another matter. Sources of manipulation include;
- completing vehicles but for one essential part, thus remaining in work in process.
- removing from new inventory vehicles used as demonstrators or corporate vehicles.
-Not condoned exactly, and in GM's case officially discouraged, dealers can count as sold vehicles that have not been delivered or even received. There are multiple permutations o that one.
- although inventory under GM includes shipping, once in a dealer hands shipping to relocate can sometimes be records as a sold vehicle. That, too, is not quite as the GM dealer accounting book instructs, but would YOU believe a given dealer would not cut a corner from time to time? Floor plan audits are a bit less 'flexible' but those depend on captive fiancee company doing the financing and sharing the data. That distinctly does not always happen.

The reporting 'quality' between corporate entities, dealers and dealer individual outlets, leasing subsidiaries and others is inconsistent even with the best intentions, which cannot always be assumed. Since there are giant public companies with multiple units and often multiple entities within each point reported inventory cannot even be reconciled within dealer organizations.

Compare all that with TSLA. One company, no dealers, instant inventory calculations mapped exactly to production, shipping, and delivery. TSLA sales recognition policy is NOT GAAP, despite appearances because it is much more conservative, as we say, title must transfer, 100% payment made before a sale is recorded for TSLA.

So what about inventory DOH. At TSLA everything being shipped is always counted. The numbers are always correct.
 
Below are a couple of charts to help illuminate Tesla's 'inventory/transit' position as of end Q2.

Separately from this industry standard 'days of inventory' articulation of vehicles in inventory/transit, the raw numbers that I am estimating based on historic production/delivery reports are:
3/Y: 90,188 at end of Q2, up from 76,892 at end of Q1
S/X: 14,991 at end of Q2, up from 14,727 at end of Q1

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I don't read too much into these as I'm sure many factors such as distribution channels to new markets and localized vehicle factories affect these values. However, I think it is useful to have a factual sense of the current inventory picture in raw and relative terms, as there is always so much spin/FUD to try to spin them to paint a certain narrative.

I'd like to see a graph of Inventory as a Percent of Production, by Quarter. That seems like more useful data to track when following Tesla.

When a company has ever growing production the standard days-of model doesn't seem relevant. Particularly in comparison to OEMs that count actual inventory on dealer's lots as having been sold.
 
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How much TSLA should I sell to cash in on this AMAZING breakthrough?

Since TSLA is at ~279.82 and the The Stephenson IndicatorTM is at $490.52 I'd say you should sell only what you need to keep your electricity on and your stomach fed. Maybe even consider selling -x (read as: buy a few shares).

Since my post wasn't fully serious I hope you'll excuse me for answering more seriously than you intended. ;)
 
I'd like to see a graph of Inventory as a Percent of Production, by Quarter. That seems like more useful data to track when following Tesla.

When a company has ever growing production the standard days-of model doesn't seem relevant. Particularly in comparison to OEMs that count actual inventory on dealer's lots as having been sold.
Comparing to the standard days-of model would likely also come with huge financial implications in terms of production costs versus revenue and quarterly earnings -- automakers were averaging ~95 days of inventory prior to the pandemic. Latest data in the US have automakers sitting on ~55 days of inventory.


A move from 16 or 17 days of inventory to 55 much less 95 would mean booking a huge amount of cost versus revenue likely for quite a few quarters.
 
I'd like to see a graph of Inventory as a Percent of Production, by Quarter. That seems like more useful data to track when following Tesla.

When a company has ever growing production the standard days-of model doesn't seem relevant. Particularly in comparison to OEMs that count actual inventory on dealer's lots as having been sold.
I'm glad you mentioned this - I also find percentage more meaningful.

Note the missing quarter on the S/X chart is from the when production was paused for refresh (division by zero).

3Y Percentage.png



SX percentage.png
 
I'm glad you mentioned this - I also find percentage more meaningful.

Note the missing quarter on the S/X chart is from the when production was paused for refresh (division by zero).

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Averaging out the 3/Y percentage, with or without the high (23.2%) and low (4.2%), it yields ~13.2% to use as a baseline for reference.

It will be interesting to see how this tracks Post-Wave.
 
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I'd like to see a graph of Inventory as a Percent of Production, by Quarter. That seems like more useful data to track when following Tesla.

When a company has ever growing production the standard days-of model doesn't seem relevant. Particularly in comparison to OEMs that count actual inventory on dealer's lots as having been sold.
Averaging out the 3/Y percentage, with or without the high (23.2%) and low (4.2%), it yields ~13.2% to use as a baseline for reference.

It will be interesting to see how this tracks Post-Wave.
There are three clear effects on Inventory levels for Tesla that are definitely coming:
1. As we near post-wave DOH will increase because the sales will be more nearly even on reporting periods.
2. As production levels rise we tend towards more deliveries from inventory and less build-to-order. That is already happening so DOH will readily rise during the coming questers.
3. As Tesla grows the accessibility of fast shipping will reduce, not least because Tesla is consciously trying to avoid expedited shipping for multiple reasons, among them expedited shipping costs, staff quarterly burnout, and lack of enough shipping capacity for a quarterly rush.

The effect of these three is still emerging but I expect to see inventory DOH to steadily rise during the next few quarters, probably settling around 50 days or so, possibly taking until Monterrey and other production facilities start delivering much less expensive vehicles, and sales momentum shifts towards inventory rather than custom orders.

These developments should be welcomed because they will increase margins, decrease buyer reluctance and improve workforce stability. Of course there are other factors, chief among them that the cash conversion cycle will slow its blistering pace. Given everything that last is not a hard price to pay.
 
Short day and most of the chatter on CNBC is about... Tesla record deliveries. CNBC just had a segment talking about TSLA SP with Craig Irwin of Roth MKM and Ray Wong of Constellation Research. Craig has a Hold and an $85 price target on TSLA but doesn't remember when he set that, but Ford has dozens of EV models coming out soon and some will be wildly successful. And you can buy Toyota for 1/3 the market cap of Tesla and they make over 9 million of direct competition models a year. Ray has a $320 and he's not factoring in robo-taxi. So who's delusional here? Who here is buying F and TM? I do agree with Craig on the HODL.

Now a new segment talking about production numbers. Is Tesla a car company that goes up on a successful quarter after price cuts to spur demand? Or is it a "magical AI" company that needs to be valued on that? Obviously can't be both can it?
All I want to know is, what did GoJo the 🤡say?

My quarter is not done until I hear "demand problems" and "Competition is coming" from him
 
How much TSLA should I sell to cash in on this AMAZING breakthrough?

“The company expects to be able to manufacture solid-state batteries for use in electric vehicles as soon as 2027”.

So, as soon as, 4 years away! And people complain about Elon’s “2 weeks”.

And you know, with that kind of qualifier, 4 years will stretch into 5, 6 or 7 years.

Anything that has an expected manufacturing date 4 years from now is not worth the brain cells to even remember, let alone worry about.
 
But....according to a smooth talking English accent CEO of a "Tesla Killer", there will be no need for a 500 mile EV in the future, 250 miles will suffice 🤡 🤡 🤡 🤡
Yeah, I couldn't believe it when I saw that. Talk about blowing up a major selling point of your one and only product. The Lucid doesn’t have a lot of things going for it, but the one undeniable positive was its range. And now Peter says, “Nevermind, that’s a useless feature”.
 
Yeah, I couldn't believe it when I saw that. Talk about blowing up a major selling point of your one and only product. The Lucid doesn’t have a lot of things going for it, but the one undeniable positive was its range. And now Peter says, “Nevermind, that’s a useless feature”.
In fairness, Rawlinson was referring to sub-$25k mass market EVs which the Lucid Air most decidedly is not.

 
“The company expects to be able to manufacture solid-state batteries for use in electric vehicles as soon as 2027”.

So, as soon as, 4 years away! And people complain about Elon’s “2 weeks”.

And you know, with that kind of qualifier, 4 years will stretch into 5, 6 or 7 years.
They just keep moving the goalposts to keep their investors happy. In 2020 they claimed they would have a running prototype in 2021 and "limited production by 2025".
Toyota has developed solid-state batteries that charge in less than 15 minutes - Autoblog