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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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They just keep moving the goalposts to keep their investors happy. In 2020 they claimed they would have a running prototype in 2021 and "limited production by 2025".
Toyota has developed solid-state batteries that charge in less than 15 minutes - Autoblog

Haha, it gets even worse than that for Toyoda. Imagine how well off you'd be right now if you'd have put $50M USD into TSLA when Toyota sold out on June 02, 2017... ;)


Yeah, that's right, that $50M would be worth $617.5M as of Friday's Close, with a gobsmacking 51.2% CAGR (them's some Ron Baron level returns right there, except his fund put $300M USD into TSLA at the start). Indeed, anybody* could get in near the bottom until Tesla became profitable in Q3 2019. Here's the Chart:

sc.TSLA.Chart.2017-06-02-2023-07-03+MyShares.png


Cheers to the *Bottom Feeders!
 
It seems like the short sellers have paid their go-to guy to write another, his third, paper purporting to have found the reason for SUA events in Teslas.

Anyone think they have a media blitz planned to try to take advantage of this?
Five years ago I would have said yes, but the media is a lot better now about investigating allegations before reporting on them. They'll ask NHTSA about this, and NHTSA will inform them that pressing the brake on a Tesla overrides any signal from the accelerator, so the scenario described is not possible.
 
Haha, it gets even worse than that for Toyoda. Imagine how well off you'd be right now if you'd have put $50M USD into TSLA when Toyota sold out on June 02, 2017... ;)


Yeah, that's right, that $50M would be worth $617.5M as of Friday's Close, with a gobsmacking 51.2% CAGR (them's some Ron Baron level returns right there, except his fund put $300M USD into TSLA at the start). Indeed, anybody* could get in near the bottom until Tesla became profitable in Q3 2019. Here's the Chart:

View attachment 953304

Cheers to the *Bottom Feeders!

Toyota put $50 million into Tesla at IPO just after the sale of the Fremont factory. They did alright on their investment but would have done a lot better if they’d held.
 
Hundreds of microseconds would likely not cause any visible change, 1 second = 1,000,000 microseconds. I'm not seeing BS.
And likely why I don't see it flicker as well, lol. (Ya... I was thinking ms.)

No matter, I just don't see how a 12V car battery supply drops to "near zero volts" for ANY time. That would be nearly 100% dropout you'd typically see from a solid short (even for a nanosec). The sample for "calibration" would likely be during a charging night-time wake cycle or system reset, not while in Drive. The story is both creative and complex, therefor it might be believable. That was the goal I believe.
 
It seems like the short sellers have paid their go-to guy to write another, his third, paper purporting to have found the reason for SUA events in Teslas.


Anyone think they have a media blitz planned to try to take advantage of this?
ummm....

The accelerator pedal uses dual poistion sensors that vary in opposite directions. If the ADC calibration were off, the two values would not be valid and the inverter would not accept the input (or would, but in a limp home level, not full throttle).

Second, the voltage rails are all buffered.

Third, power steering would not pull the 12 rail to near zero, that's what the 12V battery is there for. The Model 3 size 51R battery has a rating of 500 cold cranking amps. That means that after supplying 500 amps for 30 seconds at 0F (-18C) the battery voltage is at or above 7.2V (new, of course)

Fourth, a near 0 (dhould that somehow exist) vs 12V calibration value should be so outside the nominal value that it itself throws a fault.

@wk057, what did I miss?
 
The Model 3 size 51R battery has a rating of 500 cold cranking amps. That means that after supplying 500 amps for 30 seconds at 0F (-18C) the battery voltage is at or above 7.2V (new, of course)
But but he said the battery can only supply 100A. And the DC-DC can only add 200A. And his graph shows 0v on an ICE vehicle with lots of steering use... 😂
 
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ummm....

The accelerator pedal uses dual poistion sensors that vary in opposite directions. If the ADC calibration were off, the two values would not be valid and the inverter would not accept the input (or would, but in a limp home level, not full throttle).

Second, the voltage rails are all buffered.

Third, power steering would not pull the 12 rail to near zero, that's what the 12V battery is there for. The Model 3 size 51R battery has a rating of 500 cold cranking amps. That means that after supplying 500 amps for 30 seconds at 0F (-18C) the battery voltage is at or above 7.2V (new, of course)

Fourth, a near 0 (dhould that somehow exist) vs 12V calibration value should be so outside the nominal value that it itself throws a fault.

@wk057, what did I miss?
Wk057 replied in a deterrent thread:

This is once again not how any of this actually works, nor is it how it's even implemented on the inverter. I don't have time to dive into all of the details this evening, but suffice it to say I skimmed the document linked and it looks to be basically the same bogus claims about voltage drops with much more fluff than the last paper.

I love how a scope graph of 12V drops on an ICE car with EPAS is used to try prove a point. :rolleyes: lol. Something tells me an ICE alternator isn't going to be able to respond to large loads as quickly as a digitally controlled DC-DC converter with ~20 kHz+ switching. Oh, right, there's never any such voltage drop on a Tesla for that reason. At worst the DC-DC will allow the 12V rail to hit about 11.5V when purposely cycling the lead acid battery... which isn't even a thing on newer cars anymore, so the rail is kept pretty constant on those.

Oh, and something like 10-15 other modules on the car send 12V readings to the gateway for logging, and 3 or 4 of those will latch any dips < 10.8V and ensure that makes it to the log regardless of polling rate. (The only time I've ever seen dips like that were with a failed DC-DC, or on a car not supported by HV... clearly not the case if you're speeding away.) I've never seen any 12V dips in any of the logs I've examined from "SUA" claim vehicles from any module. In fact, I explicitly looked at these datapoints when debunking the previous "paper" that claimed the same nonsense.

Happy 4th.

Edit: Addressing this specific:



The EPAS maxes out at about 40A draw, and only in short bursts. The DC-DC is rated for 200A continuous, but can do WAY more than that in short bursts (I've pulled 400A from one for several seconds).

Most vehicles don't see more than ~100-150A load even in the worst possible situations (EPAS going, fans maxed out, seat heaters on, radio blasting, etc).
As suspected another bad theory...
 
Following are my non-evidence based, highly biased personal opinions and NOT intended as any form of financial or speculation or trading or investment advice and certainly NOT any type of encouragement to take any risk in TSLA or stock market . i am simply stating my personal investment hypotheses. So, here it is:


As far as i am concerned, Several extremely positive fundamental plus technical developments recently in TSLA:
#1 AI revolution is just beginning- we are probably somewhere in 1995 when Netscape came public and ignited a 5 year long bull market in internet stocks.
NVDA reminds me of AOL while TSLA is probably a combination of AMZN+NSOL+QCOM+MSFT+CSCO+AAPL+ORCL etc
therefore i have exactly zero investment in NVDA and 150+% in TSLA

#2 another perfect storm of gamma squeeze plus short squeeze similar to late 2019 through early 2020 or April 2013 timeframe is likely to occur which could possibly cause TSLA to hit anywhere from $400 to $600+ within next few months. if that happens then it would be a phenomenal trading opportunity.


#3 Long term TSLA will probably hit $1600 by mid to late 2025. of course, i could be wrong and it might go down to $85 as per Roth Capital analyst. entirely possible. (another stock split like 20:1 just might do the trick)

#4 long term downtrend line dating November 2021 through June 2023 is decisively broken

#5 5 month SMA crossed over 10 month SMA yesterday

#6 weekly bollinger breakout

#7 50 day sma crossed over 200 day sma and 21 day EMA, 10 day EMA all pointing straight up . daily bollinger breakout as well

lots more to be happy about.

rest of week will be great for longs and next several weeks as well


Please note Disclaimers above. by the way, many here seem to find my posts outlandish/entertaining. i am super thrilled that i am not taken seriously at all. after all, investing/trading is a zero sum game and for me to make money, someone else on the other side of my trade is losing money. the least they deserve is some levity in exchange for their losses /missed opportunity.

Happy 5th of July. let the games begin
 
Even assuming the voltage calibration assumption is correct,
If, as an example, it's calibrated at 0.12V and due to wear the go pedal rests at 1% compression it would then measure 100% pedal compression on 12V.
But there is an opposite sensor with is at 99% compression, which would then read 9900% pedal compression.
 
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Gary Black predicting 18% auto gross margin (Q1 was 19.3%). 20% required to break SP of $400.

Earnings is just 2 weeks from today.

The Accountant will restart forecasting in Q3:

Please note Disclaimers above. by the way, many here seem to find my posts outlandish/entertaining. i am super thrilled that i am not taken seriously at all. after all, investing/trading is a zero sum game and for me to make money, someone else on the other side of my trade is losing money. the least they deserve is some levity in exchange for their losses /missed opportunity.
Outlandish..? You're just getting started. Try posting a $375T 2030 forecast and then we can talk about being taken seriously.
 
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Totally OT... Welcome to page 21000. This is the furthest in the future than any of us have ever been.
21
In my early $TSLA days, we had a new investor topic every year.
I'm feeling old 😆

One advantage of keeping it all in the same thread: my bookmark to this thread, is linked to page 555555.
So it immediately goes to the last page. Saves a click :D