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First, by the end of the year, the top performing computer should break 2 EF.Quick newbie question, I don't understand the Tesla graph below. From wikipedia, the top computer in the world is 1.6 ExaFlops. In 2024, Is Tesla aiming to be 100x more powerful with 100 Exa-Flops? And if you have 1/3rd of GPus in early2024, are you at 33Exaflops? It doesn't match the top 5 in the world (approx. 1Exa-flop).
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I forgot another revenue source that Tesla will likely have by 2030. This has NOT been announced, so this is speculation.So, assuming Jordan’s deep dive into lithium mining is correct, Tesla has a constraint against growing 50% YoY, right?
Not so fast. If you look at Tesla 50% YoY revenue growth (which is what matters for stock price) as opposed to unit vehicle growth, Tesla has quite a few revenue options even with lithium supply constraints.
First, the $25K car will use less lithium (smaller battery), but that decreases revenue, but then see below.
Second, Teslabot. IF Tesla pulls off humanoid robot use cases, Teslabot is a $500K value machine which uses a tiny amount of lithium (it’s battery pack will be on the order of 10 kWh). Tesla will rent these out for $10/hr and make tons of revenue using very little lithium per revenue dollar.
Third, of course, is robotaxi. The same amount of lithium per vehicle will now generate 2x or 5x or whatever revenue since Tesla will get taxi revenue.
If I’m correct, this is all classic Elon. He sees an unavoidable bottleneck in 3-5 years and comes up with a way to keep growing even with that unavoidable constraint. He did it brilliantly with SpaceX (he was going to hit a revenue ceiling with launches, so he created Starlink which uses tons more launch and pays for itself).
So, while Jordan’s lithium forecast may very well be right, Tesla will keep growing fast despite it.
I suspect Tesla will be consuming all of it's production for a long time.Tesla is moving to a 48V architecture and I suspect will be building many of these components in house as the suppliers just haven’t been moving fast enough in that direction. I suspect that Gigafactory Mexico will be manufacturing a lot of these 48v components, and I suspect Tesla will sell these to the industry.
I think we have talked about that possibility before. But one issue with that is that the Cybertruck is supposed to be 48v and going into production as we speak. Obviously, they aren't getting the parts from Giga Mexico right now... Where are they coming from? Has Tesla spun up initial pilot lines somewhere, or did they find suppliers to make the parts for them?I forgot another revenue source that Tesla will likely have by 2030. This has NOT been announced, so this is speculation.
Tesla is moving to a 48V architecture and I suspect will be building many of these components in house as the suppliers just haven’t been moving fast enough in that direction. I suspect that Gigafactory Mexico will be manufacturing a lot of these 48v components, and I suspect Tesla will sell these to the industry.
That’s quite a speculation chain, but … you heard it here first
GURU MEDITATION ERRORGave you a for the Amiga mention. I managed an Amiga (only) dealership, and we were also a Newtek dealer, so I attended the Amiga Expos and Video Toaster unveiling in Cali.
Still have one of the T-Shirts I made for my staff!
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I would imagine the tier 1s had no problem going to 48V. It has always been the auto guys that were the block.I think we have talked about that possibility before. But one issue with that is that the Cybertruck is supposed to be 48v and going into production as we speak. Obviously, they aren't getting the parts from Giga Mexico right now... Where are they coming from? Has Tesla spun up initial pilot lines somewhere, or did they find suppliers to make the parts for them?
Possibly related to an announced rebalancing of Nasdaq100, which reduces the weight of the top 7?Speculative small cap stocks doing exceptionally well today while large cap stocks are red. Russel is on fire today. Very interesting as this doesn't look like the sign of a bear market incoming....
Article is behind a paywall so bit hard give any thoughtsOil&gas utilities will be gone by then (please lmk if y'all think differently) and 30-40% of carbon emissions should, hopefully, be gone in 2025. I think its probably why inflation will reduce so much and they expect the economy to go towards growth. Thoughts?
Morningstar makes a bold call that housing market affordability will be restored by 2025. Here's how
Morningstar expects mortgage rates to plunge to 4.00% by 2025.fortune.com
Article is behind a paywall so bit hard give any thoughts
Really the solutions are quite simple and specific IMHO.There is a sales tax on the U.S. equity trades, in the form of an SEC fee (currently $8 per $1M sold).
Market Makers are exempt from this 'per-transaction' fee for their own proprietary trading. Instead, MMs have negotiated fixed monthly SEC fees which allows MMs and Hedge funds to conduct high-frequency trading w/o any additional financial cost (legalizing manipulation).
so to get this straight once and for all- i am not a "content provider" and i couldn't care less whether you "like" my content or not. i post here purely for my pleasure and do not suffer fools gladly.I generally like your content but this ^^ kind of stuff is just packing foam. No?
As with other major technological moves, once critical mass with suppliers exists the entire auto industry usually is very sudden in adoption. Electric starters and lights quickly became ubiquitous once practical mass -produced batteries appeared. Moving from 6v to 12v was equally fast. From radios, air-conditioning and power steering to radial tires and automative transmissions, seat belts and backup cameras some took longer than others, some were mandated by regulators.I forgot another revenue source that Tesla will likely have by 2030. This has NOT been announced, so this is speculation.
Tesla is moving to a 48V architecture and I suspect will be building many of these components in house as the suppliers just haven’t been moving fast enough in that direction. I suspect that Gigafactory Mexico will be manufacturing a lot of these 48v components, and I suspect Tesla will sell these to the industry.
That’s quite a speculation chain, but … you heard it here first
Really? This argument implies we all should be happy to be serving your pleasure. This is a cooperative venture, so by definition we are intending to help each other learn.so to get this straight once and for all- i am not a "content provider" and i couldn't care less whether you "like" my content or not. i post here purely for my pleasure and do not suffer fools gladly.
OK. Just come right out and Say My Name!so to get this straight once and for all- i am not a "content provider" and i couldn't care less whether you "like" my content or not. i post here purely for my pleasure and do not suffer fools gladly.