Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

I think it's way too early to say that

I don't think everyone here ever pickup up a steel plate on their lives to have a feel for it, but steel is heavy, a 3 mm plate is really heavy, having them hanging around a vehicle for only cosmetic purposes (ignoring the whole dent proof thingy, but you don't need 3 mm for that) is really bad engineering, and Tesla doesn't do bad engineering, even more on such a fundamental concept

I'm sure the skin is a stressed member, at least in some parts, and in turn reduces the amount of load the castings have to take, so the castings are smaller than what they needed to be if it were to be manufactured with a thin outer skin

Just a rough calculation, Cybertruck on the visible outer panels has around 14 m² (150 ft^2) of stainless steel sheet, in 3 mm, that is 327 kg (721 pounds) or in 1/8" (3,18mm), 347 kg (760 lbs)

It would be absolute insanity to add that amount of weight for no reason, I don't think even Mary would approve that

I know it isn't fair to consider all the weight, but with the data we have, this is somewhere 10 to 20 miles of range lost due to the additional mass at highway speeds and more at slow speed in city driving

Thanks, you made my case and what I was thinking as well. I thought it was obvious why, but you definitely put some numbers on it.

Despite the potentially thinner skin, I think they can sell it as a range and cost tradeoff and this doesn’t change my purchasing decision. However range will.

Maybe a smaller hammer is still OK now. Include some marbles for the glass and we have a new accessory kit!

 

[Usain]

In challenge to Tesla, automakers launch US EV charging network

(Reuters) -Seven major automakers on Wednesday said they were forming a new company to provide electric vehicle charging in the U.S., in a challenge to Tesla and a bid to take advantage of Biden administration subsidies. The group includes General Motors, Stellantis, Hyundai Motor and its Kia...

finance.yahoo.com

Let's see how long this is gonna take to come to fruition.

View attachment 959761

A charging network designed by committee. What could go wrong?

 

[hobbes]

I think that will shift to full castings front and back, and they will have found sufficient body stiffness to insert a hatchback thereby increasing product appeal to many important markets.

Would love a hatchback 3 - do you have any reason for your speculation?
IMHO would make sense because of all the secrecy (GPS jammers against drones in Giga Shanghai).. Just a refresh and introducing giga castings (which would not cause any osborning) wouldn´t justify that much effort.

 

[2daMoon]

Would love a hatchback 3 - do you have any reason for your speculation?
IMHO would make sense because of all the secrecy (GPS jammers against drones in Giga Shanghai).. Just a refresh and introducing giga castings (which would not cause any osborning) wouldn´t justify that much effort.

The spy photos of the Highland do not support speculation of it becoming a hatch. The trunk hinge points are not inclusive of the rear glass.

Look at where the stealth cover ends and where the non-hatch Model 3 trunk hinges.

 

[thx1139]

Fix batch of chargers or Semis?

Any links on what the issues are?

I believe he jumped to conclusion that since they had some recalls that Tesla totally shut all production down. Where it seems to others that Tesla is just in limited production (basically hand made) until new factory is ready.

 

[Captkerosene]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1683997914778030083

Tesla Energy revenues are approx $1.5bn/qtr for Q2-2023at a deployment rate of 3.6 GWh/qtr. For simplicity assume all this is Megapack out of Lathrop.

By Q4-2024 Lathrop needs to be at 10 GWh/qtr (i.e. 40 GWh/yr which is equivalent to 500,000 cars/yr) and revenues of $4.8bn/qtr, which is 18-months away and may represent steady state for a fully built-out phase 1 at Lathrop. At least that is my modelling.

Since Megapack lead times appear to be approx 24-months away then Megapack should as a minimum be booking orders in now at a rate of $4.8b/3 = $1.3bn per month. This is exactly what the tweet says is happening and it matches my ramp modelling.

So what that tweet is telling us is that phase 1 Lathrop is now fully booked at max rate production. So the full ramp should be done with in approx 18-24 months from now, and Tesla has confidence in that ramp rate if it is accepting orders at that rate.

I'm actually slightly more optimistic than that, and think they might achieve the full ramp in 12-months from now.

The interesting part is trying to figure out when/how Tesla can lay their hands on sufficient excess LFP to press the go button on the next Megapack facility. Whether that would be a Lathrop phase 2, or a Europe or Asia facility is another interesting question. And would they be able to do two simultaneously ?

View attachment 959706



Interesting points, thank you.

I do not understand if there is any added value in putting LFP in a 4680 can vs putting it in a prismatic format.

And isn't prismatic LFP sufficiently structural as to be effectively interchangeable with a 4680 pack in mechanical terms (though really that question is only really an issue for the automotive applications).

If 4680 has no particular advantage for LFP, then why would Tesla split its 4680 effort across two chemistries ? It seems to me that Tesla's 4680 effort is going to be fully occupied in trying to ramp 4680 as the high-end automotive solution. Leaving LFP as the low-end auto solution and the stationary solution (until such time as sodium/etc arrive one day maybe).

Can you or anyone else answer those question ? For example @GhostSkater or @M3PMike any of the other battery afficionados ?

I suspect that Tesla and CATL have an unspoken agreement that Tesla will not produce LFP and that CATL will give us a good supply and price.

 

[jabloomf1230]

A charging network designed by committee. What could go wrong?

The charging unit will be shaped like an elephant. CCS1 for the tail and NACS for the trunk.

 

[EQC_]

In challenge to Tesla, automakers launch US EV charging network

(Reuters) -Seven major automakers on Wednesday said they were forming a new company to provide electric vehicle charging in the U.S., in a challenge to Tesla and a bid to take advantage of Biden administration subsidies. The group includes General Motors, Stellantis, Hyundai Motor and its Kia...

finance.yahoo.com

Let's see how long this is gonna take to come to fruition.

View attachment 959761

Interesting quote from the article:
"The unusual coalition of competitors said the new joint-venture company would aim to become the leading provider of fast charging in North America with a target of rolling out 30,000 chargers, starting along major highways and in cities.
...
Tesla, which accounted for more than 60% of U.S. EV sales last year, has the largest current network of fast-chargers with almost 18,000 Superchargers in the United States."

Of course the author didn't compare apples-to-apples, using a target for North American chargers (30,000) by some unknown future date, compared to Tesla's current status of almost 18,000 superchargers in just the US. I'm pretty sure Tesla will have 30,000 North American superchargers long before this coalition reaches that achievement.

But either way: This is good for all EV's, including Teslas and Tesla .

 

[2daMoon]

Interesting quote from the article:
"The unusual coalition of competitors said the new joint-venture company would aim to become the leading provider of fast charging in North America with a target of rolling out 30,000 chargers, starting along major highways and in cities.
...
Tesla, which accounted for more than 60% of U.S. EV sales last year, has the largest current network of fast-chargers with almost 18,000 Superchargers in the United States."

Of course the author didn't compare apples-to-apples, using a target for North American chargers (30,000) by some unknown future date, compared to Tesla's current status of almost 18,000 superchargers in just the US. I'm pretty sure Tesla will have 30,000 North American superchargers long before this coalition reaches that achievement.

But either way: This is good for all EV's, including Teslas and Tesla .

I'll believe them when they can tell us how many hours before the next of their charging stations open, like Tesla does.

Last I heard Tesla opens a new station every 11 hours, down from 13, and averages ~10 chargers per station IIRC.

 

[stef]

As we all know, the best way to solve a problem is to form a committee first! Lol

Especially a non-problem, given the solution exist already.
Wasn’t Elon saying that one of the biggest inefficiencies on the industry was to focus on solving the wrong problems and optimizing things that should not be there in the first place?
Fate loves irony

 

[petit_bateau]

Would love a hatchback 3 - do you have any reason for your speculation?
IMHO would make sense because of all the secrecy (GPS jammers against drones in Giga Shanghai).. Just a refresh and introducing giga castings (which would not cause any osborning) wouldn´t justify that much effort.

The spy photos of the Highland do not support speculation of it becoming a hatch. The trunk hinge points are not inclusive of the rear glass.

Look at where the stealth cover ends and where the non-hatch Model 3 trunk hinges.

I thought I had seen photos that were consistent with hinge points. That combined with the market desire for such a model, and the engineering potential in the structural alignment towards all-factories becoming all-castings for the 3 caused me to assemble that corner of the jigsaw in that manner.

However @2daMoon has much better pictures that sadly are not consistent with a hatch. So we will just have to wait in hope.

 

[AndrewZ]

Interesting quote from the article:
"The unusual coalition of competitors said the new joint-venture company would aim to become the leading provider of fast charging in North America with a target of rolling out 30,000 chargers, starting along major highways and in cities.
...
Tesla, which accounted for more than 60% of U.S. EV sales last year, has the largest current network of fast-chargers with almost 18,000 Superchargers in the United States."

Of course the author didn't compare apples-to-apples, using a target for North American chargers (30,000) by some unknown future date, compared to Tesla's current status of almost 18,000 superchargers in just the US. I'm pretty sure Tesla will have 30,000 North American superchargers long before this coalition reaches that achievement.

But either way: This is good for all EV's, including Teslas and Tesla .

Interesting that Stellantis and Honda are in on this when I'm pretty sure they currently sell approximately zero EVs in North America

 

[bkp_duke]

I thought I had seen photos that were consistent with hinge points. That combined with the market desire for such a model, and the engineering potential in the structural alignment towards all-factories becoming all-castings for the 3 caused me to assemble that corner of the jigsaw in that manner.

However @2daMoon has much better pictures that sadly are not consistent with a hatch. So we will just have to wait in hope.

These could be just test mules. I.e. use the structural frame of an existing 3 with the add-on parts from Highland to test functionality of those specific parts (camera placement for calibration, headlights, etc. etc.). The mules would likely change as production nears (i.e. true front+rear cast mules with the proper hinge points, etc.).

Just my speculation here, but while we have no official word of a hatchback for Highland 3, I would not write it off this early in the pre-production process either.

 

[cab]

1/4 point hike from Fed as expected...Powell's comments are the key

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Having owned a 1953, a 1972, and then several later model pickups and 4x4s over the decades, I have seen the trend to thinner panels and the ease of denting they have provided to the body of a truck that used to be sturdy. (that '53 Ford was built stout)

Over the years I have pined for a truly rugged truck (while seeing the OEMs outright lie about their products being "tough") and was enthralled by the Cybertruck reveal. I don't care that it weighs a little more. I want that truck to last for decades and truly be able to "buff that out" when something mars the finish.

I want to drive on a tight forest jeep road and be able to rub against brush without concern that it may damage the paint or the panel itself.

The fact that the exterior surface must weigh more to accommodate this functionality is a small price to pay. Particularly, if they can integrate the strength of the exterior panels into the overall vehicle strength. Perhaps this would allow for the stamped parts being made from thinner Boron steel to offset the extra weight.

There are plenty of pretty trucks out there that bruise easily. They are posers, with misleading ads touting their being rugged when they are in fact quite fragile.

Long live the Cybertruck!

The truck itself will be great, but it's a disappointment for investors. We had an expectation it would outdo the F-150 and become a million vehicle product. If that was going to be the case it had the potential to move the share price. Now we know it's only going to be a niche product and that tells me it will be more expensive, have lower range, lower margins, and slower production rate then anticipated. I don't think the CT can have an upside impact on the share price but a rough launch and ramping may hurt the SP. The nearest catalyst I see for my retirement is a licensing agreement for FSD with Ford or BYD. Cybertruck will not contribute to our riches, imo.

 

[SOULPEDL]

+1/4% it is. Feds on now.

Edit, as to why the stock and market is up - IDK.

Edit 2, because it was expected?

 

[UkNorthampton]

The truck itself will be great, but it's a disappointment for investors. We had an expectation it would outdo the F-150 and become a million vehicle product. If that was going to be the case it had the potential to move the share price. Now we know it's only going to be a niche product and that tells me it will be more expensive, have lower range, lower margins, and slower production rate then anticipated. I don't think the CT can have an upside impact on the share price but a rough launch and ramping may hurt the SP. The nearest catalyst I see for my retirement is a licensing agreement for FSD with Ford or BYD. Cybertruck will not contribute to our riches, imo.

Your statement seems to have no basis.

Munro discussion mentioned how a wide variety of people with various cars currently all wanted a Cybertruck, the opposite of a niche product. Cost is unknown, but Elon mentioned F150 Lightning was expensive. Range of 350+ miles - we don't know whether mid or long range versions. Built to be made quickly, plenty of castings seem to exist. Shanghai have a sub 40 second cadence, as opposed to 60 seconds in Legacy OEMs. This might be coming to the Cybertruck line

 

[AndrewZ]

+1/4% it is. Feds on now.

Edit, as to why the stock and market is up - IDK.

Buy the news, it's a tale as old as time!

The market currently believes this is the final rate hike and that rate cuts will be coming as early as March next year with a cut almost every single meeting after that.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Buy the news, it's a tale as old as time!

The market currently believes this is the final rate hike and that rate cuts will be coming as early as March next year with a cut almost every single meeting after that.

That’s not what Powell just spoke, although he has to say this. “Based on data”

 

[hobbes]

The spy photos of the Highland do not support speculation of it becoming a hatch. The trunk hinge points are not inclusive of the rear glass.

Look at where the stealth cover ends and where the non-hatch Model 3 trunk hinges.

Did Tesla ever confirm those are Highlands ?