Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[heltok]

Today something happened that I didn't think it was possible

Found one of those that spew every single FUD point about EVs in real life, and as it happens, it's one of my best friend that we know each other close to 15 years now and we see each other almost weekly

Every, single, one.

That EVs haven't proven that they can replace ICE yet

That the grid won't handle EVs if everybody has one, didn't matter that I showed him on the spot the grid demand curve and that at night when most people would be charging there is tons of spare demand

That he couldn't charge one in his house because it takes too much power. When I asked how much he drives daily and calculate how much power/energy it would take to charge that back, and that he could do in a regular outlet, still didn't accept

That he knows that EVs are worse than ICE for the environment, no matter what he wouldn't believe, that the data Tesla shows can't be trusted because he saw people saying it so

That once the batteries dies, it gets send to South East Asia for it to be disposed, completely ignoring that a dead battery is the most valuable ore for someone making new batteries

That the life of a EV is short and the battery dies soon, much quicker than ICE, by this point I stopped refuting and just nodded

Shame, because I though he was a smart guy knowing him all this time

Imo these people are not smart, they are just intelligent. When you are intelligent you can be good at winning debates even if you are wrong and good at convincing yourself that you are right even when you are wrong. Smart people have feedback mechanism, they adjust their beliefs by making internal predictions and when things happen different they update their beliefs. When more people change their beliefs they lower their confidence levels and get curious. Intelligent people will convince themselves that everyone else is wrong and they with their superior intelligence were correct all along. They will do mental acrobatics all the way until they hit what their intelligence can handle before they finally give in, but they will resent everyone for it as their image of themselves has been shattered.

Everyone is victim to this in different degrees. Some good resources that helped me:
Superforecasting
Laws of Human Nature
How to live in a world we don't understand

 

[lascavarian]

Actually, this makes the fight more likely, as he said previously that his neck problem would disappear if he got the vertebrae fused together.

Sort of a worthless thing as I see it. Nothing personal on the line. They should have pink slips on the line. Whoever leaves the cage takes the all the social media equity of the other.

Then there would be some motivation otherwise it is just juvenile name calling.

 

[2daMoon]

EM has already had surgery for his neck. Another one? I have seen that slippery slope unfortunately.

Not that my opinion matters, but I definitely prefer no cage match regardless.

Maybe they could arm wrestle?

Or, have an epic Rock, Paper, Scissors battle instead.

 

[scaesare]

I mean, they COULD change any hardware in the car at any time.

It wouldn't make any SENSE to be constantly changing the specs of the infotainment system every few months of course, apart from causing a ton of churn on expensive supply chain stuff they'd also be adding complexity to the software side of things if the specs keep changing since they'd either need different versions based on a bunch of HW configs, or write everything for the lowest-specs, in which case why bother with higher ones?

On the contrary- the fact they decided the cost savings of cutting the RAM and local storage in half for the Y (and likely refresh 3) infotainment suggests they see no need for the higher specs and they might as well save the money... so adding a fraction of the RAM back in 6 months would be a pretty weird decision
in that light.

Sure, they can change configuration of various components at any time. Not disputing that. And in fact, Telsa often DOES... perhaps more so than anybody else in the automotive industry, they slipstream changes into the product line without introducing a new model.

All of which actually supports my point: tying the configuration of one part (infotainment), to another (FSD), with a term like "Model Y HW4 Infotainment" not only doesn't make sense, it could end up ambiguous.

My S had MCU v1 initially. I upgraded to MCU v2. Pretty straight forward. I wouldn't call it "RWD MCU", or "On-board charger V1 MCU"....

(mods, I'll drop this come the opening of trading hours )

 

[Skryll]

Actually, this makes the fight more likely, as he said previously that his neck problem would disappear if he got the vertebrae fused together.

Doesn't make sense to me. Wouldn't you have to heal after such surgery for a month at least before putting strain on it like in a fight ? This episode gets more bizarre by the week

 

[scaesare]

What you describe clearly shows the effectiveness of the desinformation that is being directed to us all through many information channels.
All the above arguments of your friend can simply be categorised in fear, uncertainty and doubt.

A company like Cambridge Analytica (but there are many more) has proven how easy and effective this is.
I advise to watch the Netflix documentary “The Great Hack”; it is as entertaining as it is downright frightening how easy it is to manipulate people.

Maybe worth recommending Merchants of Doubt to folks like that. Maybe followed by Who Killed the Electric Car?

I actually should watch them again.

 

[Dig deeper]

8K just filed. We are getting a new CFO.

 

[Tachyon]

Sort of a worthless thing as I see it. Nothing personal on the line. They should have pink slips on the line. Whoever leaves the cage takes the all the social media equity of the other.

Then there would be some motivation otherwise it is just juvenile name calling.

If there is a scenario where both can lose and their respective social
Media empires disappear? I am all for it .

 

[Singuy]

Tesla (TSLA) names Vaibhav Taneja CFO, succeeding Zachary Kirkhorn - EV EDITION

Advertisements Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has announced the appointment of Vaibhav Taneja as Chief Financial Officer, effective August 4, 2023. He will also continue to hold his current role as Chief Accounting Officer. Mr. Taneja succeeds Zachary Kirkhorn, who stepped down from his position after...

ev-edition.com

 

[Paul_SF]

All them talking about Master of Coin to become CEO will be so pissed!

 

[EVWatcher]

All them talking about Master of Coin to become CEO will be so pissed!

Premarket deeply unhappy with this news

 

[Max Plaid]

All them talking about Master of Coin to become CEO will be so pissed!

Unless he stepped-down as CFO to become CEO...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Premarket deeply unhappy with this news

The stock just can’t catch a break since earnings.

Seems to me that it’s a near certainty that it’s going to test the uptrend line set from the low back in Jan. So depending on how fast Wall St drops it, could go all the way down to 215 area in the very short term

 

[Electroman]

Where is Zach going? Lucid?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Unless he stepped-down as CFO to become CEO...

He’s only staying with the company until the end of the year

 

[Singuy]

Premarket deeply unhappy with this news

Market is always unhappy whenever there's a CFO change. Since they have access to all the financials, the market usually price in "possible accounting fraud?, sinking ship?" every time there's a change. Always end up being a nothing burger. When Zach got the gig market punished Tesla hard even after a stellar earnings.

"When CFO Deepak Ahuja left Tesla in 2019, it sent shares down as much as 4.5%."

 

[SmokyPeat]

Premarket can be flighty. Let's see if a nice green day for tech can buoy the stock.

 

[X Fan]

Well respected CFO...this is a loss.

btw: 13 years is a long time to be in key roles in frenzied Tesla.

 

[Knightshade]

Sure, they can change configuration of various components at any time. Not disputing that. And in fact, Telsa often DOES... perhaps more so than anybody else in the automotive industry, they slipstream changes into the product line without introducing a new model.

All of which actually supports my point: tying the configuration of one part (infotainment), to another (FSD), with a term like "Model Y HW4 Infotainment" not only doesn't make sense, it could end up ambiguous.

I can't recall any examples of Tesla initially downgrading a part, then just months later upgrading it back though-- generally if they REMOVE something (ram and NVME space in the this case) they had good reasons for removing it and tend to leave it removed.

Can you think of any examples where they reversed themselves on something like that?

With market open feel free to reply elsewhere if you prefer, I dunno here maybe?

Investor Engineering Discussions

You're mushing different things together. Aero drag and rolling resistance are both part of what auto engineers call "road load". Obviously if you increase aero 10% and hold RR constant, road load will increase by less than 10%. But it's the same for EVs and ICE, thus has no bearing on this...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Premarket can be flighty. Let's see if a nice green day for tech can buoy the stock.

Yeah....no

TSLA is gonna be punished for at least the rest of this quarter and Q3's earnings are going to heavily scrutinized. If you thought the FUD since earnings was high gear, it's about to enter a whole new level. This kind of announcement can keep investors on the sidelines for a least a couple quarters to make sure there's nothing to the CFO's departed when it comes to Tesla's finances.

There will be a real test of the uptrend line set back in Jan and man if it breaks, at least chart-wise, it's not pretty for the stock.