Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

You mean most are dumping bonds since that's the only way for the interest rate for treasures to go higher. I believe cash on the sideline is at ATH currently. People are not buying stocks or bonds due to risk free money market giving out great rates without the risk of bond and stock value dropping in a rate increase environment.

My cash was at an ATH, till i started buying this $TSLA dip

 

[Buckminster]

From the big picture stuff I have read, @replicant is correct. To a first-order estimation, globally, our energy use has been rising fast enough to gobble up all the amazing renewable generation we have created. Therefore, the only thing that matters to global warming (amount of GHG in the atmosphere) has still been increasing. We have run faster, but the treadmill under our feet has sped up.
Therefore what? Do we need to run even faster on renewables? Do we need to ban fossils? Change our habits?

All this being only most in the most broad since applicable to investing per se, I have a feeling the ever reliable @Buckminster has a thread for us...

Project Dojo - the SaaS Product? Dojo uses half the energy. AI is inevitable even if Tesla don't enable it. AI might assist solving climate issues.

 

[Snerruc]

You mean most are dumping bonds since that's the only way for the interest rate for treasures to go higher. I believe cash on the sideline is at ATH currently. People are not buying stocks or bonds due to risk free money market giving out great rates without the risk of bond and stock value dropping in a rate increase environment.

Yep, the collapse in bond prices is what is beginning to make bonds interesting again. It’s what is keeping part of that money out of stocks. Not a bond trader myself, but a friend of mine once made a 500% killing on Chrysler Financial bonds in a somewhat similar situation.

 

[DaveG_NJ]

Just a heads up, 100 day moving average is 219.94/share...if it doesn't hold, I expect a quick drop to the 200 day which is 197/share.

TSLA continues to underperform it's beta. How many days is that since earnings? At least 90% of the days have been underperforming. Sometimes by huge amounts. Seems like today will be the day the 100 day gets tested.

That's how I'm playing it. Bought a truckload of ATM puts that I'll ride down to the 200 day. Get through the last of August any maybe get a Cybertruck bounce in September.

 

[AndrewZ]

From the big picture stuff I have read, @replicant is correct. To a first-order estimation, globally, our energy use has been rising fast enough to gobble up all the amazing renewable generation we have created. Therefore, the only thing that matters to global warming (amount of GHG in the atmosphere) has still been increasing. We have run faster, but the treadmill under our feet has sped up.
Therefore what? Do we need to run even faster on renewables? Do we need to ban fossils? Change our habits?

All this being only most in the most broad since applicable to investing per se, I have a feeling the ever reliable @Buckminster has a thread for us...

This was brought up in the IEA Net Zero by 2050 roadmap. I recall posting it on here shortly after the report hit and to not great reception because of the implications.

But according to the IEA there is no scenario where we merely continue replacing fossil fuel energy with renewables and achieve net zero by 2050, the world actually needs to consume less power as a whole for it to be achieved.

And as you mentioned, efficiencies tend to be gobbled up and expanded upon. LED lighting is a good example where we’ve brought out this new lighting technology that consumes far less energy per lumen than incandescent bulbs so you’d expect energy usage would decrease right? No, we just end up lighting more and more things and to greater extents, and overall energy usage continues increasing regardless.


If we came out with technology today that let us half our energy usage per mile driven, would energy usage actually decrease or would miles driven just double?

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Sigh. It has always been like this at Tesla since, oh, 2008 or so. Would you rather have a car company that has an otherwise great series of features, but lousy tech since the tech package is on a 5 year refresh cycle, and won’t be ready until next year? A lot of current cars being sold fall into that camp, just for one example.

Look, Tesla isn’t perfect!!! It has never been, and never will be. It is just less imperfect than all other car companies. If that isn’t good enough for you, look elsewhere.

And FWIW, I immediately put in an order for a new Model X on the day of the announcement solely because of that steering wheel. Sure there are plenty of stick in the muds like you that didn’t like it, in fact you are probably a majority (since Tesla has now reversed their standard/optional steering wheel, they, oh my gosh, learned!), but Tesla does amazing things because of that mentality.

The Cybertruck is a good example of the positives of that mentality. Only a company that would gamble on a yoke would also gamble on the Cybertruck, which all indications are, will be a hit.

Conflating the uniqueness of the Cybertruck with the absurdity of a "boy racer" steering yoke is silly.

At the end of the day, from an investor's point of view, the Palladium refresh of the S and X has been a disaster with stunningly long period (over a year IIRC?) with ZERO cars to sell, to ever-increasing discounts to move the metal, and a promised fix of its most egregious safety defect (no usable horn) over a year ago--yet NOTHING happened to fix it:

Elon Musk confirms yoke steering wheel airbag horn will be turned on through OTA software update

In January we reported that Tesla was getting ready to add a new airbag horn to the Model S yoke steering wheel. The new feature was spotted on a yoke steering wheel with the sticker “AIRBAG […]

driveteslacanada.ca

And:

Tesla appears to be finally adding a regular horn to its yoke steering wheel

Tesla appears to have finally agreed to walk back one feature of its controversial yoke steering wheel, as it will...

electrek.co

Did Elon lie, or was he just misinformed?

Elon is brilliant, but the biography will likely reveal he also has many self-induced defects that others at Tesla/SpaceX see, but cannot/will not speak out loud for real fear of being fired (because it happens often). As a Human Factors engineer (by education), with thousands of miles behind Palladium stalkless yokes, it is, frankly, an incomprehensibly stupid safety hazard. We don't see ourselves buying another, this after over a dozen MS's since 2013.

Prospective buyers have grown to learn this and sales are likely suffering as a result. I fear the Highland update may encounter the same future if someone doesn't sit Elon down for a talk . . . it's LONG overdue and failure to do so will further damage our TSLA investment, AND the mission.

It can be possible to be too smart for one's own good.

 

[jerry33]

This was brought up in the IEA Net Zero by 2050 roadmap. I recall posting it on here shortly after the report hit and to not great reception because of the implications.

But according to the IEA there is no scenario where we merely continue replacing fossil fuel energy with renewables and achieve net zero by 2050, the world actually needs to consume less power as a whole for it to be achieved.

And as you mentioned, efficiencies tend to be gobbled up and expanded upon. LED lighting is a good example where we’ve brought out this new lighting technology that consumes far less energy per lumen than incandescent bulbs so you’d expect energy usage would decrease right? No, we just end up lighting more and more things and to greater extents, and overall energy usage continues increasing regardless.


If we came out with technology today that let us half our energy usage per mile driven, would energy usage actually decrease or would miles driven just double?

I don't know about the world, but I certainly use less energy than I did when I bought the house in '98. When I moved in the electric bills were $400 month. Now they are max $270 and that includes replacing every gas appliance with electric and having two electric cars. (Yes, they are both charged at home, trips excepted).

 

[JoRoMo]

Not going to do it this time... need cash for the Great-Great Depression (or 215, which ever comes first).

Did you do 215? That was my plan, 100@215, but not as an order.

I await what happens downwards, and buy 100 if it approaches upwards towards 235 (assuming that should give me time to react) - wise?

Without giving investment advice, which seems imperative for folks to say…

 

[TSLA Pilot]

This was brought up in the IEA Net Zero by 2050 roadmap. I recall posting it on here shortly after the report hit and to not great reception because of the implications.

But according to the IEA there is no scenario where we merely continue replacing fossil fuel energy with renewables and achieve net zero by 2050, the world actually needs to consume less power as a whole for it to be achieved.

And as you mentioned, efficiencies tend to be gobbled up and expanded upon. LED lighting is a good example where we’ve brought out this new lighting technology that consumes far less energy per lumen than incandescent bulbs so you’d expect energy usage would decrease right? No, we just end up lighting more and more things and to greater extents, and overall energy usage continues increasing regardless.


If we came out with technology today that let us half our energy usage per mile driven, would energy usage actually decrease or would miles driven just double?

A VERY powerful flowchart that should suggest that, in the LONG-TERM, we have more than enough energy to convert given that about 2/3rds is of what we currently used is flat-out wasted:

Flowcharts

flowcharts.llnl.gov

Yes, this has major implications for Tesla and especially Tesla Energy (and TSLA).

Other countries here:

Energy Flow Charts

A single energy flow chart depicting resources and their use represents vast quantities of data. Energy resources included solar, nuclear, hydroelectric, wind, geothermal, natural gas, coal, biomass, and petroleum. Energy flow diagrams change over time as new technologies are developed and as...

flowcharts.llnl.gov

 

[Drumheller]

Not everyone has an issue with the new Model S controls. I'd like another Model S but it's my financial situation that keeps me from buying one at this time. I know others that are in similar points of view and situations. Inflation has been worse than reported. Wages have not increased as reported. The economy is not great for the working class.

If the new controls are horrible to someone, it may be a matter of taste, and it may (seriously) be a matter of getting older. Would you have felt that way trying it as a teenager? I'm not a fan of every Tesla change and decision but I like that they are trying new things instead of the same 100 year old technology

 

[unk45]

You mean most are dumping bonds since that's the only way for the interest rate for treasures to go higher. I believe cash on the sideline is at ATH currently. People are not buying stocks or bonds due to risk free money market giving out great rates without the risk of bond and stock value dropping in a rate increase environment.

Whenever real interest rates exceed inflation expectations money moves towards higher yields. Some moves from lower yield equities, some from lower yield debt instruments, but that movement is inexorable. Those measures for both interest rates and yields are sensitive to specific investor cases so generalities can be deceptive, though inevitable for overall market views.

in such situations non-interest yielding investments carry higher discounts simply because carrying costs rise. TSLA is a case in point. One of the little-noted effects is that shareholding with secure dividend history and prospects tends to perform well. AAPL is a case in point, for long term shareholders whose yields can be in excess of current high yield debt choices. (FWIW, I'm in that case, now effectively a 'coupon clipper' for living expenses).

TSLA temporarily suffers since most companies competing with Tesla are themselves leveraged enough that rising rates increases their operating costs. TSLA, as we know, experiences some buyer pressures, but not the effects of rising rates on operating expenses, except on securitized customer financing.

In such circumstances as we have today it is crucial to understand that Tesla's extreme efforts to reduce costs will be even more important as competitors suffer from increased OPEX as well as marginal financing costs. Therefore regardless of the present share price decline all will soon be well again. We just do not know how soon 'soon' is.

 

[Mengy]

Prospective buyers have grown to learn this and sales are likely suffering as a result. I fear the Highland update may encounter the same future if someone doesn't sit Elon down for a talk . . . it's LONG overdue and failure to do so will further damage our TSLA investment, AND the mission.

I'm concerned the Highland M3 won't have stalks on it, and if it doesn't then my fear is it will hurt sales of the new M3 and this relaunch might not be the sales boon so many of us hope it will be. While many Tesla fanatics are fine with the removal of stalks, I do not think most casual consumers would be allright with this deviation from a standard which works well.

I know Tesla is working towards Robotaxi's with no steering wheels at all, but IMHO removing stalks from cars today is premature.

 

[cab]

Something good needs to come from this dip to 216. Either buyback, Buffett purchase or funds buying. All three would make a lot of sense in my simple world.

It means we are finally halfway there!

 

[Buckminster]

Threads of the day:
TSLA buyback Pressure is building on the board
Need for Tesla Advertising / PR Elon thinks they should advertise bioweapon defence more...
Dogecoin SpaceX (will Tesla follow?) have sold Bitcoin. 2023 the year of the Doge?

For those that believe in manifesting, I suggest you believe that Robotaxis are coming next year. Elon is trying his hardest but needs a bit of help from the universe. That way you won't have to worry about stalks...

X on X (in Tokyo ahead of Grimes' set):

 

[Zero CO2]

in for another 35 shares @ $213.83 at open ... placed this limit order right after earnings ... thinking there was very little chance of getting any more shares ... oh well ... probably could have held for even better price next week today

 

[Singuy]

I'm concerned the Highland M3 won't have stalks on it, and if it doesn't then my fear is it will hurt sales of the new M3 and this relaunch might not be the sales boon so many of us hope it will be. While many Tesla fanatics are fine with the removal of stalks, I do not think most casual consumers would be allright with this deviation from a standard which works well.

I know Tesla is working towards Robotaxi's with no steering wheels at all, but IMHO removing stalks from cars today is premature.

Depending on S/X survey results will determine if people are okay with the stalk removed or not.

 

[Zero CO2]

Fully concur.

Someone needed to reign Elon in with his juvenile "yoke" and lack of shift lever/turn signal stalks ideas. A car in 2023 is NOT a video game, yet Elon persists in creating an environment where his authority is questioned only if you wish to be fired . . . so we end up with a potentially great car that was handicapped by boy-racer silliness. (We should know: we've purchased five Palladium MS's. The novelty quickly becomes a pain, and intermittently an actual danger, in the real world of parallel parking and roundabouts and errant drivers that need a short horn "toot.")

Now we see "Standard Range" versions with an identical COGS? Really Elon? How about just adding a proper horn button (where it belongs, in the center of the steering wheel!), turn signals, and a shift lever? Driving these cars often feels like it's a "New Coke" moment, but Tesla can't go back to a better idea because it's a firing offense to counter Elon perhaps?

Instead, they just reduce the price (again), this time by $10k and handicap the car with software while installing the same, massive, and expensive battery pack . . . .

We remain heavily invested in TSLA but are growing concerned with the increasing number of self-induced problems and easily foreseen missteps, seemingly all directed by Elon, all of which are very concerning. The upcoming biography may help shed some light on both the utter brilliance, and remarkable hubris and folly, of Tesla's leader.

Tesla willingness to fail fast is one of the key reasons why I am invested in this company ... they are not afraid to innovate and when they make a mistake they pivot relatively quickly ... they will upset some customers along the way ...

as an example i hated the idea of using the app to communicate with service center, my recent issue with my Model S was perfectly resolved without ever needing to see anyone in the service center or any phone calls ... i dropped car off... and picked it up upon repair just through the app and the chat window .... zero hassles ...no need to give them my FOB, or get it back ... removal of small irritations in the repair process are very valuable

 

[Drumheller]

Depending on S/X survey results will determine if people are okay with the stalk removed or not.

I disagree. I think most younger people are ok with the new controls. I think Model S / X buyers, on average, are older than Model 3 / Y buyers as most younger people cannot afford the S or X. I don't have data to back this up; it's my perception from talking to people. I think a Highland Model 3 without stalks will sell well.

 

[Drumheller]

It's coming

 

[MartinAustin]

Wait... m-my $212 buy order! Come back here!!!