Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AZRI11]

(Market = closed) the frunklid looks very questionable

It's taped down for whatever reason. Looks like they possibly have some missing parts for a powered frunk?

 

[Singuy]

H100 cluster is 3x the speed of their A100 cluster. I believe their H100 cluster is also like 1.7x the size of the old A100 cluster (around 6k GPU from the old cluster but they may have added more).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1696673197347774955

 

[Gigapress]

Aren't you the guy who was predicting absurd margins and earnings mid-2022 that came nowhere close to happening?

This is an irrelevant ad hominem argument. I presented the relevant math and assumptions.

For automotive margins, the cost-side projections were pretty accurate but I did not anticipate an unprecedentedly rapid increase in interest rates and credit tightening that resulted in plummeting car prices throughout the entire global market. Sorry. I did my best. In any case, I’m banking on long-term gross profit of $5-10k per car (excluding software), which is pretty conservative in my opinion considering Tesla’s extreme lead on cost control that Gen 3 technology will provide. Most of the money will come in the 30s and beyond when Tesla Automotive is making tens of millions of vehicles per year.

And you've already screwed up assumptions on the IRA credits. It's safer to assume prices will keep coming down to say $300 / kWh.

It's safer to simply trust Musk that margins will be like Automotive and be in the 20-30% range. Assuming 50% margins is reckless...again.

To be clear, I’m specifically talking about potential 50% margins for Megapacks:

• Produced and sold in the USA and getting the $45/kWh IRA credits, some amount of critical mineral credits, as well as the 30% subsidy for the customers
• At current prices
• Including the net present value of service and software profits

This is obviously a best-case scenario that is going to apply to a minority of overall Megapack sales, and I do not expect it will last long. 20-30% gross margin off of $200-300/kWh average global price sounds about right if we’re looking out a few years from now. The main point is was trying to make was that people thought the 50% margin projections were outlandish earlier this year, yet Tesla just cut prices by a whopping 22%. This move strongly suggests that margins were actually very high at the previous prices.

That being said, like with cars, this is heavily influenced by the cost of capital (i.e. interest rates) and a variety of other market factors beyond Tesla’s control and well beyond my own ability to predict. What I am confident in is that Tesla has the best product, the strongest market position, and what will soon be the lowest cost, and this will make the Megapack business very profitable when at TWh scale.

 

[Artful Dodger]

As time goes on, a financial incentive will be less and less important for consumers to choose an EV over an ICE. But for now, it still helps with the up-front sticker shock.

Nawh, it's not that. My local Tesla Delivery Centre was empty of inventory for nearly 6 weeks after the Fremont deliveries dried up, but before the (strike-delayed) Shanghai cars arrived.

They're here in force now. Delivery lot teeming with Teslas again. Q3 will be a good Qtr.

 

[BriansBucketList]

Lol this is peak LAME. I don't even know how much more lame a "news" organization can get by contacting the police on Musk...lol.

Isn't almost running a red light the same as the extremely serious crime of driving through a yellow light ? Quite newsworthy, if you're desperate, or motivated by short interest

 

[Electroman]

Lol this is peak LAME. I don't even know how much more lame a "news" organization can get by contacting the police on Musk...lol.

The desperation for media to throw anything at Musk to see if it sticks, and the desperation for clicks.

 

[SPadival]

In other news, I will be sharing supercharger sites with my BYD friends .

It's good to see that Tesla is not relying on "moats" to keep the competition at bay. Pace of innovation, baby!

Tesla opens up nearly half of its Supercharger sites in Australia to non-Tesla EVs

EV charging just got a whole lot better as Tesla opens up almost half of its Australia Supercharger sites to non-Tesla drivers.

thedriven.io

 

[Artful Dodger]

It's taped down for whatever reason. Looks like they possibly have some missing parts for a powered frunk?

As were the windows taped closed on a batch of Highland Models 3 undergoing testing in rural China. You don't send out cars that need rework; they stay at the factory until ready. This tape is more likely to keep unauthorized staff from opening the frunk/cabin/whatever to take pictures and posting them on social media.

 

[2daMoon]

Isn't almost running a red light the same as the extremely serious crime of driving through a yellow light ? Quite newsworthy, if you're desperate, or motivated by short interest

FWIW, I did get pulled over once for "stopping too quickly" at a desolate intersection, twenty miles from any town. Though, the deputy was smart enough not to cite me for it.

The same sort of logic prevails for almost running a red light,... or being almost pregnant.

This is the sort of thing that puts the nothing in a nothing-burger.

The only question left for the journalist is, "Would you like fries with that?" after they migrate to a job better suited for their skill-set.

 

[Atomsla]

Car sales in Europe up 15.2% in July


article:

New car registrations: +15.2% in July, battery electric 13.6% market share

In July 2023, the EU car market continued its growth trajectory, expanding by 15.2% – the twelfth consecutive month of growth. New car registrations reached 851,156 units as the bloc recovers from last year's component shortages. Most markets posted solid growth, including the four largest...

www.acea.auto

Interesting bit:

Electric cars​

In July, new EU battery-electric car registrations substantially increased by 60.6%, reaching 115,971 units while accounting for 13.6% of the market. Most EU markets grew significantly by double- and triple-digit percentage gains, including the two largest, Germany (+68.9%) and France (+32.4%). Notably, Belgium recorded the highest sales with an impressive 235.9% growth. Cumulatively, battery-electric car sales recorded a significant 54.7% increase from January to July, with 819,725 units registered.

New hybrid-electric car registrations surged by 31.6% in July, primarily fuelled by solid growth in the region’s largest markets: Germany (+46.6%), France (+32.8%), Spain (+30.8%), and Italy (+16.7%). This led to a cumulative 28.5% increase, with almost 1.6 million units sold between January and July, equivalent to one-quarter of the market share.

Last month, new EU plug-in hybrid car registrations increased by 14.5%, reaching 67,060 units. Strong performance in major markets like the Netherlands (+107.6%), France (+80%), and Spain (+42.7%) was offset by a decline in Germany (-39.5%), the largest market for this fuel type. Despite this growth, the market share of plug-in hybrid cars remained stable at 7.9% in July.

 

[Artful Dodger]

10 Years of Supercharging in Europe Tesla (12 hrs ago)

BTW, when I checked yesterday evening, Munich had 3 out 36 Supercharger stalls available. That's a whole lotta cheap advertising...

Cheers to the Chargers!

 

[scaesare]

For starters everyone should have to try and bend/fold big sheets of stainless steel and not crack it.

Perzactly. And the traditional manufacturing method for body panels is stamping. Can't do that with SS, so it's not just a matter of it being harder to do the traditional way and hence needing to be careful, but rather entirely new production methods. The initial prototype needing to be laser cut before bent/folded. Not sure what the ultimate mass production approach ended up being... but it was new.

 

[GhostSkater]

Nice interview with one professor about what goes in Jeff Danh lab and the partnership with Tesla

EXCLUSIVE: Inside the Tesla-funded Jeff Dahn Research Group

Electric Autonomy finds out what makes the Jeff Dahn Research Group so appealing to Tesla in their goal to build to world's best batteries

electricautonomy.ca

 

[Artful Dodger]

Perzactly. And the traditional manufacturing method for body panels is stamping. Can't do that with SS, so it's not just a matter of it being harder to do the traditional way and hence needing to be careful, but rather entirely new production methods. The initial prototype needing to be laser cut before bent/folded. Not sure what the ultimate mass production approach ended up being... but it was new.

Telsa has installed this automated/robotic metal brake to bend the stainless steel for Cybertruck: (Trumpf TruBend 5320)

Joe Tegtmeyer on Twitter: "Today at Giga Texas, a large delivery with a Trumpf Truebend 5320 machine was delivered. Here are a few images of the delivery and a link to the company website showing this exact machine in action! https://t.co/3Y9wSJkhkI https://t.co/dau5cUd2ZC" / Twitter | June 09, 2023​

Here is this machine in action: (Robots building Robots...)

TRUMPF Automation: BendMaster with TruBend 5320 - Demo

Cheers!

 

[Singuy]

Job growth and PCE below expectations. Bears probably continue to get F-ed today

 

[SOULPEDL]

H100 cluster is 3x the speed of their A100 cluster. I believe their H100 cluster is also like 1.7x the size of the old A100 cluster (around 6k GPU from the old cluster but they may have added more).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1696673197347774955

Sorry if this is a lame question... I thought Dojo used Tesla AI Chips with custom boards and amazing cooling designs.
Is this recent H100 cluster a separate computer? Then what's up with Dojo - or am I confusing one them?

 

[Snerruc]

Perzactly. And the traditional manufacturing method for body panels is stamping. Can't do that with SS, so it's not just a matter of it being harder to do the traditional way and hence needing to be careful, but rather entirely new production methods. The initial prototype needing to be laser cut before bent/folded. Not sure what the ultimate mass production approach ended up being... but it was new.

Actually, large pieces of stainless are bent routinely. Ever look at most elevator doors? Bent perfectly with no ripple, etc. probably Elon got the idea for the cybertruck in an elevator.

 

[scaesare]

Telsa has installed this automated/robotic metal brake to bend the stainless steel for Cybertruck: (Trumpf TruBend 5320)

Joe Tegtmeyer on Twitter: "Today at Giga Texas, a large delivery with a Trumpf Truebend 5320 machine was delivered. Here are a few images of the delivery and a link to the company website showing this exact machine in action! https://t.co/3Y9wSJkhkI https://t.co/dau5cUd2ZC" / Twitter | June 09, 2023​

Here is this machine in action: (Robots building Robots...)

TRUMPF Automation: BendMaster with TruBend 5320 - Demo

Cheers!

Ah thanks for reposting that...I remember seeing it initially but forgot.

I wonder if they still have to score the sheets as they originally described.

 

[scaesare]

Actually, large pieces of stainless are bent routinely. Ever look at most elevator doors? Bent perfectly with no ripple, etc. probably Elon got the idea for the cybertruck in an elevator.

Sure, but to the best of my knowledge, that's a new production method for vehicle body panels.

 

[MP3Mike]

I thought Dojo used Tesla AI Chips with custom boards and amazing cooling designs.

Yep.

Is this recent H100 cluster a separate computer?

Yep.

Then what's up with Dojo - or am I confusing one them?

It is online and scaling up.

Tesla needs as much compute as they can get, so they are building out both Dojo and Nvidia clusters. (And sounds like they may build out some AMD based clusters as well, if the cost on them works out.)

I think Elon mentioned that they were spending about $2B/year on compute for AI training. (I don't know if that is all hardware costs, or if that includes energy use as well.)