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Sadly I have. From the Moody's Pre-Sale (TALT 2023-A) (for others on this site - everyone with a business email can sign up for this for free btw)
  • W.A. FICO is 773
  • W.A. Original Tenor is 35 months
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Compared to a range of other auto securitisations:
  • FICO is better that the other Americans but worse than the Germans
  • Loan/lease tenor is shorter than average (a good sign in terms of risk)
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Tesla isn't doing great on the RV performance - but the difference only seems to kick in after 2 years. Maybe it is EV cost decline curve causing this or something else. BMW sucks.
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Thanks for looking up the data. To truly make apples-apples we would need to adjust for model mix and relative concentrations. However, for years you generalizations have largely been valid, since the 2019 issues that including the first Model 3 concentrations. Other things remaining equal the higher MSRP vehicles tend towards lower LTV, shorter tenors and lmuch higher average FICO. Again, generalizing, with higher MSRP especially, longer tenors correlate with higher losses partly because LTV is higher. OTOH, early terminations are more common of longer tenors too, with accidents dominating for more complex models such as Models S and X, BMW 7 series etc.
Your exhibit 12 is brilliant for near equivalencies.
FWIW, recent revision of generic FICO has made it much more volalitile and ultra-sensitive to revolving credit. People with high expenditures and no actual revolving balances often have near weekly shifts of 50 points or more. Tesla owners disproportionately fit that type, which brings down reported FICO withoutncommensurate probability of default.

All this is immediately relevant to us as TSLA holders since Tesla is now ‘mainstream’.
Further the disproportionate California concentration for Tesla does tend to depress overall nominal FICO values. Ideally we could view relative performance by SMSA, which makes Tesla even better. That, however, is the stuff of internal analytics, but has less value from a TSLA-holder perspective.

Thatnks again for posting this. I’m in Greece now, testing a pseudo-competitors newest offering. Tesla has nothing to fear from the North Asian front!
 
Papa put the max pain at 245, however this guy's app says 247.5. Looking like 247.5 is the winner.

That's because the Reddit post was from Thursday... Friday also showed 245 on that web page

Here's the link for those that are interested: Stocksera | Options

1694247985297.png
 
Thanks for looking up the data. To truly make apples-apples we would need to adjust for model mix and relative concentrations. However, for years you generalizations have largely been valid, since the 2019 issues that including the first Model 3 concentrations. Other things remaining equal the higher MSRP vehicles tend towards lower LTV, shorter tenors and much higher average FICO. Again, generalizing, with higher MSRP especially, longer tenors correlate with higher losses partly because LTV is higher. OTOH, early terminations are more common of longer tenors too, with accidents dominating for more complex models such as Models S and X, BMW 7 series etc.
Your exhibit 12 is brilliant for near equivalencies.
FWIW, recent revision of generic FICO has made it much more volatile and ultra-sensitive to revolving credit. People with high expenditures and no actual revolving balances often have near weekly shifts of 50 points or more. Tesla owners disproportionately fit that type, which brings down reported FICO without commensurate probability of default.

All this is immediately relevant to us as TSLA holders since Tesla is now ‘mainstream’.
Further the disproportionate California concentration for Tesla does tend to depress overall nominal FICO values. Ideally we could view relative performance by SMSA, which makes Tesla even better. That, however, is the stuff of internal analytics, but has less value from a TSLA-holder perspective.

Thanks again for posting this. I’m in Greece now, testing a pseudo-competitors newest offering. Tesla has nothing to fear from the North Asian front!
Agreed on the limitations of the Moody's analysis, but I don't have the time to go through loan tapes for something that is unlikely to change my investment position (nearly all in) on Tesla - and therefore rely on the work of the ratings agencies as a reasonable proxy. Perhaps if something particularly strange shows up in future pre-sales I'll make the time for further work. My history with securitisation focuses more on the structuring and execution side and only tend to delve into the credit side when it can't be structured around. It's great to get more nuance from someone who focuses on that area.

Interesting insight regarding the FICO scores - The reducing FICO is reflected over time in Tesla's previous issuances - dropping c.20 points between the 2019 issuance and the 2023 issuances. This also broadly correlates with reducing S/X concentrations over time. That said, 2021-B had very little S/X models yet its FICO is higher than the two more recent issuances - so not sure what to make of the MSRP<>FICO relationship. Perhaps Tesla's portfolio of borrowers is becoming more mainstream as they scale or Tesla is carefully selecting the profile of leases they wish to securitise for pricing/structuring reasons.

There's some other interesting info in the time series comparison:
  • Excluding 2023-A due to additional seasoning, the average lease size appears relatively flat while the 3/Y concentration is increasing which reflects your comments around higher MSRP vehicles having lower LTVs
  • Tenor is flat at 35 months across time. Again suggesting Tesla is carefully selecting its portfolio
  • California appears to be holding steady as a portfolio concentration but Florida is on the rise
  • RVs as a percentage of lease values for 3/Y appear to be larger than S/X if we again use 2021-B as a proxy for 3/Y (as it has the shortest seasoning yet largest RV%)
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Yes, Sawyer was confused Tesla is still giving ride and drives. The implication that they ever had a booth was likely a wording error.
BMW, Cadillac, Chevrolet, Ford, GMC, Tesla and Volkswagen will be showing off their EVs on the new Powering Michigan EV Experience indoor track ride-along activation, sponsored by the Powering Michigan team of International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW) Local 58 and the National Electrical Contractors Association (NECA).
Outside of Huntington Place, Ford and Tesla will offer street course ride-and-drives. There, show visitors will get a chance to get behind the wheel and take products for a spin along the Detroit riverfront over portions of the Chevrolet Detroit Grand Prix downtown race circuit.
Detroit Auto Show Announces Exciting Lineup of 35 Vehicle Brands, Featuring Mainstream Nameplates, Luxury Marques and Exotic Supercars – North American International Detroit Auto Show
 
Did Tesla actually pull out or did the Dealer Association decide they didn't want the competition?
Possibly neither.
The since changed wording was "Show-goers can expect to see Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, Chrysler, Dodge, Fiat, Ford, GMC, Jeep, Kia, Lexus, Lincoln, Ram, Tesla, Toyota, and Volkswagen as part of corporate/region-supported vehicle displays."

However, Tesla may never have been part of the main show, only the ride and drive events.
 
Possibly neither.
The since changed wording was "Show-goers can expect to see Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, Chrysler, Dodge, Fiat, Ford, GMC, Jeep, Kia, Lexus, Lincoln, Ram, Tesla, Toyota, and Volkswagen as part of corporate/region-supported vehicle displays."

However, Tesla may never have been part of the main show, only the ride and drive events.
So you are saying that the only way I can see a Tesla at the show is to join a mile long queue for a ride? That seems like a terrible way to advertise Tesla. Won't the OEMs just point out that this is unfair so that the crowds dissipate to checkout the 2024 Chevy Bolt?
 
Current new UK EV price reductions. Shows marketplace (competitors) & the effect Tesla pricing may be having.

Summary:-
  1. Wide supply of models (many from Stellantis are clones under the skin & badge).
  2. Greater supply of Electric Vehicles
  3. Some big discounts vs list prices
  4. Buyers should haggle
  5. Tesla & MG4 driving lower prices of other models.
  6. Tesla prices at end of video for comparison (seem reduced to me, inventory/discounts?)
  7. No comparison to ICE new prices in video, but some comments saying low prices for used EVs compared to ICE (Eg Zoe vs Clio which it's based on).
  8. September is a huge sales month - sell now or dealer might have to keep the car over the winter - limited space, cleaning & high interest rates
Note that some of these prices might not be available for cash. Canny buyers (not many) buy on credit & then pay it off within cooling-off period (14 days?) to get the deal price for cash/cheaper (bank) finance.

I like the following site for comparisons, but these will be list or similar prices, not discounted ones - EV Database

So EVs vs ICE new prices in UK... I don't know for sure but the discount on cars email I get from nearly a month ago had plenty of 15+% discounts on 60 ICE cars/models and not a single EV reduced. I might get another email soon. I suspect with even bigger discounts for ICE.

Electricity prices are still high in UK, Superchargers have come down with cheaper rates at quiet/low-energy-demand times and petrol/diesel prices are higher.

September 2023 new car deals (mainstream, available at all/many dealers) - some EVs - https://www.honestjohn.co.uk/deals/

 
"Fairly significant"? Huge, I would say.

Austin is going to be expanded for the "new platform". No GigaMexico, at least not until the assembly line can be cut-and-pasted. The expected worldwide demand for the cheap non-robo EV is off the hook (Port of Houston is going to be a busy place).
Just to expand on speculation a bit:
it will be interesting to see whether Austin, for “Model 2” will be
A) Prototype assembly only, with main production shifted to Mexico ASAP
B) Prototype plus production for US market, with exports mainly from GigaMexico
C) Prototype plus production for US market plus exports (shared with GigaMexico)

If C) I will just point out that the Austin-Port of Houston round-trip is 350-400 miles. Well within Tesla Semi range. Should be an easy run with Megacharging only needed at GigaTexas.
 
Just to expand on speculation a bit:
it will be interesting to see whether Austin, for “Model 2” will be
A) Prototype assembly only, with main production shifted to Mexico ASAP
B) Prototype plus production for US market, with exports mainly from GigaMexico
C) Prototype plus production for US market plus exports (shared with GigaMexico)

If C) I will just point out that the Austin-Port of Houston round-trip is 350-400 miles. Well within Tesla Semi range. Should be an easy run with Megacharging only needed at GigaTexas.
I doubt A), because it doesn't accomplish what I think is the objective of successful mass production to be copied elsewhere.
 
Just to expand on speculation a bit:
it will be interesting to see whether Austin, for “Model 2” will be
A) Prototype assembly only, with main production shifted to Mexico ASAP
B) Prototype plus production for US market, with exports mainly from GigaMexico
C) Prototype plus production for US market plus exports (shared with GigaMexico)

If C) I will just point out that the Austin-Port of Houston round-trip is 350-400 miles. Well within Tesla Semi range. Should be an easy run with Megacharging only needed at GigaTexas.

C.1) By rail from the Hippoplex* to Port of Houston may be another option. (*Tesla's railyard between Hutto and Taylor)
 
CATL announced their new battery, Shenxing, in Europe.

Tesla will use it for the new model or the roadster?

Lots of marketing words and very little of substance. Basically next gen LFP fast charging 4C, 0-80% in 30min(is this a brag?!):
Screenshot 2023-09-09 at 21.08.47.png


Other things which were a bit more unclear:
700km range(given that it's a battery and not a car, that's a weird metric)
Price unknown
Mass production 2023Q4, in vehicles 2024Q1(which vehicles?)

Not sure impressed, but great with more batteries and looking forward to more hard figures.
 
My guess is it's a single occupancy vehicle made with a single casting.
I think the economics means two occupants (at least). If there was a business case for taxis to transport one person, then we would see a lot of 2 seat taxis around the world. Granted, many people would prefer to not seat alongside a strange driver, and the high wages of the driver might be a factor, but roads are designed for multi-seat vehicles, and its going to be chaos if every-time 3 people hail a cab they end up in 3 vehicles in a line...
My guess is 4 seats, but low performance, low top speed. The model 3 is ludicrously over-specced for a vehicle that will mostly ferry people to and from work in commuter traffic. I suspect most taxis do 95% of trips below 50mph?