Thanks for looking up the data. To truly make apples-apples we would need to adjust for model mix and relative concentrations. However, for years you generalizations have largely been valid, since the 2019 issues that including the first Model 3 concentrations. Other things remaining equal the higher MSRP vehicles tend towards lower LTV, shorter tenors and lmuch higher average FICO. Again, generalizing, with higher MSRP especially, longer tenors correlate with higher losses partly because LTV is higher. OTOH, early terminations are more common of longer tenors too, with accidents dominating for more complex models such as Models S and X, BMW 7 series etc.Sadly I have. From the Moody's Pre-Sale (TALT 2023-A) (for others on this site - everyone with a business email can sign up for this for free btw)
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- W.A. FICO is 773
- W.A. Original Tenor is 35 months
Compared to a range of other auto securitisations:
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- FICO is better that the other Americans but worse than the Germans
- Loan/lease tenor is shorter than average (a good sign in terms of risk)
Tesla isn't doing great on the RV performance - but the difference only seems to kick in after 2 years. Maybe it is EV cost decline curve causing this or something else. BMW sucks.
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Your exhibit 12 is brilliant for near equivalencies.
FWIW, recent revision of generic FICO has made it much more volalitile and ultra-sensitive to revolving credit. People with high expenditures and no actual revolving balances often have near weekly shifts of 50 points or more. Tesla owners disproportionately fit that type, which brings down reported FICO withoutncommensurate probability of default.
All this is immediately relevant to us as TSLA holders since Tesla is now ‘mainstream’.
Further the disproportionate California concentration for Tesla does tend to depress overall nominal FICO values. Ideally we could view relative performance by SMSA, which makes Tesla even better. That, however, is the stuff of internal analytics, but has less value from a TSLA-holder perspective.
Thatnks again for posting this. I’m in Greece now, testing a pseudo-competitors newest offering. Tesla has nothing to fear from the North Asian front!