Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lascavarian]

Lex is not a writer, if I'm not mistaken, and Urban wanted to write a long blogpost and it took him 6+ years to write a fairly short book.
As someone who dabbles in writing myself don't underestimate the absolute distance there is between these two and Isaacson. He is a seasoned biographer, and has done it several times. He's a master of his craft, he can write 600+ pages book in a year and probably has a good writing/researching process with a lot of people who help him. You remember the story about the prototype and the manufacture? It's the same but with written pages. I only read The Innovators and at the time I was in awe about the bunch of stories he could weave together, the structure of the book and the underlying motives of competition VS collaboration. It's hard stuff to write a very good book.
He also is an international established name in publishing, and has very good reputation. Very good choice, IMHO.

Good comment, Isaacson just did a segment on CBS Sunday Morning show focused on how Musk can seem difficult to easily understand. For those so inclined…

 

[2daMoon]

Thanks for your detailed comments. Generally, I don't see these statutes going away unless there is a price to keeping them. I would be happy to be wrong. Some states have liquor control boards even though there are breweries on every corner. There is no cost to keeping the antiquated LCB laws in place.

I think Tesla can extract a cost to the dealership protective laws but only if they are willing to do it. Probably not. It would be nice if some of the others directly affected kept the issue active focusing on dealerships as opposed to states. YMMV

I don't see them going away either. The most optimistic path will be that those most interested in enforcing those statutes go out of business. At that point the association will become most vulnerable to opposition gaining the legislative votes needed to revoke the statutes.

Granted, a coordinated campaign of informative and persuasive media highlighting the burden which these laws pose to car buyers would go a long way towards raising awareness. But I don't think it will be worth the effort for Tesla to pursue. Third parties could have some fun with making satire of the traditional dealer experience.

In the greater scheme of things this "problem" has proven to be an insignificant obstacle toward achieving the mission. Much less hassle would be involved to simply work within the constraints and wait for the inevitable that will come by market force. (people voting with their wallets)

With Jim Farley already bucking the system with their BEV division's intention to offer direct sales, the ball Tesla has tossed is rolling along quite nicely. Sorta like the NACS has done.

Bottom line for the OEMs will come down to "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em" and the dealers will have to fend for themselves behind the safety of the castle walls they have built between themselves and their customers.

 

[navguy12]

My tendency is to acknowledge correction and learn from it. Generally, I'll show appreciation for those who point it out.

Thanks for the feedback.

As for legislators owning dealerships everywhere, that was the point being made. This isn't unique to any particular state.

The Auto Dealers have formed associations in many states to protect their cartel from being swept aside by direct sales from manufacturers. They now exist primarily to keep these laws on the books. Laws that were originally designed to protect them and now have been exposed by Tesla's direct sales in such a way that those avoiding the traditional experience rave about the alternative.

The customer has already been provided a choice to own a Tesla in these states, regardless of these laws. Thankfully, the dealership cartels have no such foothold in federal lawmaking and cannot prohibit sales through interstate commerce.

It seems clear that the days are numbered for the power of these state statutes, and for the traditional dealership experience itself. This won't change tomorrow, but it will change once the old model wears thin enough that it can no longer support itself.

At best these statutes will be abolished by the legislature. At worse, they will become Blue Laws because there won't be anyone left who cares enough to enforce them. Time will wound all heels who use this tactic to perpetrate this elaborate dance designed to lever profit from their victims, the customers.

Those archaic laws aren't enough of a deterrent to represent a real problem that prohibits Tesla's sales from keeping pace with production in those states where these laws exist. The Dealership Cartels create FUD by bringing up the topic and publishing misinformation that leads people to the idea that Tesla cars can't be bought in certain states.

Whining about this over and over in a forum where many/most participants already know this probably won't make much difference to the timeline of change. However, doing so can further propagate the FUD the cartels want to spread when posted repeatedly, with such unnecessary drama. Anyone who does this has clearly bought into the FUD and is doing the work for the cartel to help spread misinformation.

This is the fact of the matter, these laws have no significant effect on the growth of Tesla and of TSLA, regardless of the color of either the pot or the kettle.

Some say this is bullish.

Speaking of FUD generated by an entrenched (fossil) cartel, another example where the current player says anything to prevent consumers from making a better choice (non-fossil):

Toronto Star ePaper

Toronto Star ePaper

torontostarreplica.pressreader.com

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1700909365518037279

Bill Gates and Elon Musk: An excerpt from Walter Isaacson's new biography of Musk

 

[alhounos]

Here's your robotaxi. 2 seats, 3 wheels:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1700880759656214582

 

[Knightshade]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1700909365518037279

Bill Gates and Elon Musk: An excerpt from Walter Isaacson's new biography of Musk

Gates thesis was that EV supply would get ahead of demand-- which I suppose if you took all the new-model-via-only-press-release stuff from legacy seriously IS a theory that you could get to with a mere surface glance.

To me the weirder part is a dude who is already worth north of 100 BillionWithAB making individual-stock-level profit play investing decisions AT ALL at this point in his life, and then also only doing them based on a surface level glance.

 

[mars_or_bust]

Apologies if this was mentioned in this thread before, but it seems the new Isaacson revelations explain why Giga Mexico is delayed - initially the 25 K model/robotaxi was meant to be built there. But Elon wanted the design team to be in the same place as the initial production, which will be in Austin. Only once all the production kinks are worked out will the production move to Mexico.

So the Mexico delay is not due to permit problems, but is a Tesla business decisions.

 

[Knightshade]

Here's your robotaxi. 2 seats, 3 wheels:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1700880759656214582

0 chance of that.

Elon has explicitly said no 3-wheel vehicles- impossible to make them safe enough for his standards.

 

[mars_or_bust]

Here's your robotaxi. 2 seats, 3 wheels:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1700880759656214582

This is consistent with 4 wheels.

 

[2daMoon]

Here's your robotaxi. 2 seats, 3 wheels:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1700880759656214582

It's the Tesla version of the Aptera.

 

[alhounos]

True, could just be the way the image looks. Regardless it confirms that the robotaxi likely only seats 2 or 3 people. It does look like there is a dash for human driver controls, but a 2-seat compact doesn't seem like it would have a lot of takers.

 

[mars_or_bust]

True, could just be the way the image looks. Regardless it confirms that the robotaxi likely only seats 2 or 3 people. It does look like there is a dash for human driver controls, but a 2-seat compact doesn't seem like it would have a lot of takers.

I think the inspiration could have come from the car in Minority Report.

 

[2daMoon]

True, could just be the way the image looks. Regardless it confirms that the robotaxi likely only seats 2 or 3 people. It does look like there is a dash for human driver controls, but a 2-seat compact doesn't seem like it would have a lot of takers.

I'd buy one just to keep in the back of the Cybertruck, as a spare.

Might have another at home for grocery runs and such.

And, it isn't only a Compact, it is a Hatchback. (queue the feline ire of @Krugerrand in 3-2-1 )

 

[jerry33]

Here's your robotaxi. 2 seats, 3 wheels:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1700880759656214582

I guess no families will be using Robotaxi. Kind of limits the clientele.

 

[hitchhiker]

I guess no families will be using Robotaxi. Kind of limits the clientele.

Yeah -- I keep thinking the model Y is the perfect car design to become a robotaxi. 4 spacious seats, and room for luggage in the back. The profit on the robotaxi operation has plenty of margin -- it doesn't need an ultra-cheap car. But it needs to be able to do airport to hotel runs.

 

[Nrkl]

I guess no families will be using Robotaxi. Kind of limits the clientele.

There would be plenty of other Teslas in the network, but as someone else mentioned most of all rides are with 1-2ppl onboard. Makes sense to focus the scale on a small vehicle imo. I personally would have my own family car regardless, to have child seats, comic books etc in at all times. Also to be able to have a generally untidy car.

 

[jerry33]

There would be plenty of other Teslas in the network, but as someone else mentioned most of all rides are with 1-2ppl onboard. Makes sense to focus the scale on a small vehicle imo. I personally would have my own family car regardless, to have child seats, comic books etc in at all times. Also to be able to have a generally untidy car.

Most rides are one person so make the car that size sounds good on paper, but if there are several different sizes in the fleet there's a big logistics problem with the right size car in the right place at the right time. Works for vans because you either order a taxi or a van, and they are often different companies.

 

[2daMoon]

Yeah -- I keep thinking the model Y is the perfect car design to become a robotaxi. 4 spacious seats, and room for luggage in the back. The profit on the robotaxi operation has plenty of margin -- it doesn't need an ultra-cheap car. But it needs to be able to do airport to hotel runs.

Choice Is Better Than No Choice
Having the ability to summon a Next-Gen, or MY, M3, CT, MX, MS, Van, Semi, etc. to fit the job will make Robotaxi a huge success.

Robotaxi Service App - the Swiss Army Knife of transport!

Robotaxi - the 2nd Car you don't have to own​

 

[Krugerrand]

…but is a Tesla business decisions.

 

[Usain]

As far as advertising goes…

Lots of “normal” folks are not even aware of the CyberTruck’s existence. I’ll mention our order for one and people ask, “What’s that?”. Also that report of police officers having no idea what they were seeing on the car hauler. Advertising will enhance awareness for those not already Tesla fans, which I think will be a net positive.

I'm not against Tesla advertising, but ads for CyberTruck would be a waste of money. Upon release, it will make an enormous splash with gargantuan free media coverage. Heck, every time someone sees it on the road for the first time they will do a double-take and want to find out more. Each CyberTruck will be its own mobile billboard.