bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
With "friends" like that, who needs enemies?
$5 says they were funded by the local auto industry, erm, I mean "green" team.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
With "friends" like that, who needs enemies?
$5 says they were funded by the local auto industry, erm, I mean "green" team.
India plans to draft and push out a EV policy after meeting with Tesla executives in August.
From the article:
"Minister Goyal said that Tesla aims to source components worth between $1.7 billion and $1.9 billion from India this year, having bought $1 billion of components last year."
"Tesla plans to produce a low-cost EV priced at $24,000 - about 25% cheaper than its existing entry-level model - for both the Indian market and export."
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/QHPC6G3VIBPEDGH3E7UF5A2KGI.jpg)
www.reuters.com
From the article:
"Minister Goyal said that Tesla aims to source components worth between $1.7 billion and $1.9 billion from India this year, having bought $1 billion of components last year."
"Tesla plans to produce a low-cost EV priced at $24,000 - about 25% cheaper than its existing entry-level model - for both the Indian market and export."
India to draft new policy in push for EV investment, minister says
India will come up with new policy to attract electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers and encourage greater investment in the sector, the commerce minister said on Wednesday.
www.reuters.com
I spent a fruitless one hour two days ago trying to run down the meat of Benchmark Li’s comment, partly because at that time it was paired with a remark like “Key price barrier finally shattered”.
Why my search?
1. Which was it? Has the world for the first time finally reached the sub-$100 level,
or
2. Do BenchmarkLi’s data reach back only to Sept 2021,
or
3. Do journalists, or BL employees, not know how to express themselves,
or
4. Had there been some bizarre post-Covid market glitch that temporarily collapsed cell prices?
$<$100/kWh is a big deal, one worthy of celebration. Too bad the acknowledged leader of amassing these data cannot present them clearly.
I think a bit over 1.8 million for 2023 is mostly a lock. Q1 produced 440,808, Q2 made 479,909, Tesla has guided for Q3 to be a bit under Q2 due to upgrades but I think it will be very close to equaling Q2, and Q4 should be the highest production of the year. So the math predicts 1.9 million as an easy target for 2023, but very likely closer to 2 million cars produced. This would likely equate to about 1.85 million delivered, which would be a bit over 40% YoY growth over 2022 for cars delivered.
2024 is looking more to me like a 20%-30% year though. Fremont and Shanghai probably won't increase production much in 2024 so most of the growth will come from Berlin and Austin, which are both nearing the end of their Phase 1 ramps (and Berlin seems to be stagnating a bit for some reason) . CT will add some volume but it's reasonable to assume the CT ramp will be a slow one (4680's alone could hold it up), so I'd expect 2024 production to be lower than usual, a regrouping year while Giga Mexico gets built and the "Model 2" line gets built in Austin. Maybe like 2.3 million units for 2024?
2025 is where the new growth should come in again, as Austin will likely start Model 2 production sometime in 2025 (possibly Shanghai too), CT should be ramped into high numbers, volume Semi production should begin. We'll also likely have another new factory underway somewhere by then.
In short, I'm expecting a production growth slowdown for the next year or two until the compact production begins, and then we'll probably see it explode out of the gate.
I do like the name Tango. The "Tesla Tango". Nice. People love alliteration.If it takes 2, and is sold in the Latin America market, it could be called the Tango.
Offer a yellow-red color and you can have a Mango Tango.
But there is already an automobile called the Tango.
To get to work, 75% of people drive solo (as opposed to trains, carpool, working at home, etc). If you discount non-personal vehicles, it is closer to 88%.
For all vehicle miles traveled, the average car occupancy is 1.5.
Best info I found, with further references, at Personal Transportation Factsheet
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
I think a bit over 1.8 million for 2023 is mostly a lock. Q1 produced 440,808, Q2 made 479,909, Tesla has guided for Q3 to be a bit under Q2 due to upgrades but I think it will be very close to equaling Q2, and Q4 should be the highest production of the year. So the math predicts 1.9 million as an easy target for 2023, but very likely closer to 2 million cars produced. This would likely equate to about 1.85 million delivered, which would be a bit over 40% YoY growth over 2022 for cars delivered.
2024 is looking more to me like a 20%-30% year though. Fremont and Shanghai probably won't increase production much in 2024 so most of the growth will come from Berlin and Austin, which are both nearing the end of their Phase 1 ramps (and Berlin seems to be stagnating a bit for some reason) . CT will add some volume but it's reasonable to assume the CT ramp will be a slow one (4680's alone could hold it up), so I'd expect 2024 production to be lower than usual, a regrouping year while Giga Mexico gets built and the "Model 2" line gets built in Austin. Maybe like 2.3 million units for 2024?
2025 is where the new growth should come in again, as Austin will likely start Model 2 production sometime in 2025 (possibly Shanghai too), CT should be ramped into high numbers, volume Semi production should begin. We'll also likely have another new factory underway somewhere by then.
In short, I'm expecting a production growth slowdown for the next year or two until the compact production begins, and then we'll probably see it explode out of the gate.
Considering we now know Tesla committed to Austin as the site of the new vehicle production early this year, and has been under construction since shortly thereafter, it might be worth considering just how long it will take to bring this online.
From the additions already seen in place; expanding the stamping capacity, significant production line work, robots delivered, some double top secret work in casting (where they covered the windows for months), every indication is that significant progress could have been made already this year.
Could there be a possibility that this new line may be ramping just behind and in parallel with the CT ramp over the course of 2024? Particularly, after consideration of just how much the "unboxed" process may simplify assembly line construction.
Joe Tegtmeyer was puzzling over a big load of flat carts that looked to me like they might be the bases to carry the major sub-assemblies for the Unboxed process.
Austin, being the design pilot, is certainly slated to precede Shanghai by however much time is needed to finalize the processes before duplicating them at other factories.
How would next year's estimates be affected if the production of the Next-gen in Austin were to begin as early as mid to late 2024?
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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Ok, but I'm in the camp robotaxis aren't replacing hardly ANY of those cars in the next couple of years- so designing a vehicle today with those people in mind is a bad plan.
People really like owning a personal vehicle-- to the point that even in arguably the worst city in the US to do so- NYC- very roughly half the households still choose to own a car. This is a trend that is likely to change at RTs become more common-- but generationally, not overnight or even over just a few years.
Hence why I'm asking about replacing actual taxis (and uber/lyft) which seems the easiest first market for RTs.
I know personally when I travel most of the time there's at LEAST 2 people (and sometimes luggage) involved in such rides, and a pretty decent % of the time more than 2 (plus any bags). And I don't even have kids. For those that do you're talking minimum 3 people EVERY such trip.
Is a 2-seater a reasonable fit for THAT market?
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
I do like the name Tango. The "Tesla Tango". Nice. People love alliteration.
But there is already an automobile called the Tango.
After reading the Wiki, Tesla could likely buy the rights to the name out of petty cash.
Dang the glass house that was never being considered sounds much less cool than the glass house that Elon was apparently considering according to his biography lol
www.businessinsider.com
Seriously sounds cool
Elon Musk wanted to build a house that looked like it 'fell out of space,' new book reveals
Elon Musk has said he owns a prefabricated home, but his biographer said he has discussed plans to build a new mega house on a horse farm in Texas.
www.businessinsider.com
Seriously sounds cool
I just don't see why people are predicting a reduced production growth. Tesla have demonstrated the willingness and profit margin room to "goose" deliveries as they like. Plus, that Elon guy, from every single bit of anecdote ever related anywhere, does not pause, reflect, and then decide "Well, let's take a break here and see how it goes".
There are so many markets under-served and regions not yet opened, production pressure will flow to where there is room.
"Life uhhhh..... finds a way"
There are so many markets under-served and regions not yet opened, production pressure will flow to where there is room.
"Life uhhhh..... finds a way"
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
M2 will be a capable taxi. RT will come when Tesla network is up and running and built on the same platform.
GhostSkater
Member
Most interesting data we are getting on the Semi for me is it's charge times and power.
So far, 10-80% in around an hour, charging power holds flat to 80% and it is somewhere between 550 and 650 kW
Finally the 750 kW chargers Pepsi has been talking about lines up
And the fact it holds that charging power flat, means there is likely room for much higher peaks, if we just scale this up from a Model 3 pack and it's charge curve, it would mean the Semi could peak as high as 2.7 MW, and charge times with that would be 10-80% in 27 minutes
So far, 10-80% in around an hour, charging power holds flat to 80% and it is somewhere between 550 and 650 kW
Finally the 750 kW chargers Pepsi has been talking about lines up
And the fact it holds that charging power flat, means there is likely room for much higher peaks, if we just scale this up from a Model 3 pack and it's charge curve, it would mean the Semi could peak as high as 2.7 MW, and charge times with that would be 10-80% in 27 minutes
Dang the glass house that was never being considered sounds much less cool than the glass house that Elon was apparently considering according to his biography lol
Elon Musk wanted to build a house that looked like it 'fell out of space,' new book reveals
Elon Musk has said he owns a prefabricated home, but his biographer said he has discussed plans to build a new mega house on a horse farm in Texas.
Seriously sounds cool
Evil geniuses do not build houses. They build bases.
Well we really need to see how many cars can they squeeze out of a gigafactory. But to keep his 50% production growth going, we should have 2 more gigafactories right now that should have already broken ground like 6 months ago. So as they move to gen 3, it wouldn't be surprising if there's a year worth of stagnation before rocketing again.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I think it's unclear to folks where another 600,000 more cars in 2024 compared to 2023 come from physically when there's no new factories having even begun construction yet.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Along this line of thought, would it be likely that Pepsi rarely charges higher than 80%? If so, this would be a good counter argument for all the "Tesla Semi is not making 500 mile runs" rhetoric that will abound.
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