Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1712197316290220283

 

[Prunesquallor]

200-300 nukes-worth* of power each year? Whhooof! Sooner or later (sooner, that is), that adds up to a dramatically large number, both in terms of realized production and realized diminution of fossil-fuel consumption.

* We used to think of a gig as being an average-sized nuke; I decreased that number because most new-ish plants are quite a bit larger.

I seem to remember years ago reading that to decarbonize fast enough to head off catastrophic climate change, one nuclear reactor a day would need to be commissioned.

well…

 

[Carl Raymond]

I seem to remember years ago reading that to decarbonize fast enough to head off catastrophic climate change, one nuclear reactor a day would need to be commissioned.

well…

s curves, disruption, 4680, megapacks, EVs, robotaxis, Optimus, solar

I could try to put those things into a coherent response, but Adam Dorr does it so much better. Nuclear can’t save us because it has a negative learning curve.

 

[GhostSkater]

General question for those who track Tesla's progress against their statements from battery day. It's my "gut" that tells me that Tesla is somewhat behind their optimistic goals for the 4860 ramp. I think Tesla set incredibly aggressive develop, transition to production, and production time lines on the 4860 ramp. I think they decided that the physics was mostly solved with DBE and chemistries and it was just engineering the scaling (aggressive assumption). Believe it or not, I would stipulate that Elon felt if everything went well, they might even exceed the plans revealed on battery day. It feels like Tesla is probably behind those internal expectations- maybe even a little behind on the public expectations too, but not significantly. I offer the statement to not have a 2170 "backup plan" for 4860s in Berlin (or something like that) as my evidence. Am I misremembering anything here? Are we still on plan per public statements? I think the Tesla team is amazing and moving at light speed, so no knock against crazy aggressive goals...I just think I (and most in this thread) would benefit from a solid recap of Tesla's progress to put the 20M 4860 cell tweet in context.

Battery day target was in a 6 years period, so we are still good, right now, the 4680s V2 are on par with 2170s and 18650s in energy density at 260 to 270 Wh/kg, while if you tried to extrapolate with everything they presented there the peak should be around 330 Wh/kg

For all the other metrics we simply don't have info on what Tesla has in mind, specially charging speed

 

[heltok]

Even though 20%/month growth is great, I think the 4680 delays highlight what a massive success Giga Nevada was getting to 35GWh/year for 3/Y. Doing the collaboration with Panasonic at the time was a very good strategy. Since then China has been growing like crazy while Japan has been stagnating so now it's collaboration with China and Korea that seems to be the name of the game.

My main question is when we can expect LFP production in NA and if Tesla intends to start making their own LFP.

 

[skybluecgreen]

Even though 20%/month growth is great, I think the 4680 delays highlight what a massive success Giga Nevada was getting to 35GWh/year for 3/Y. Doing the collaboration with Panasonic at the time was a very good strategy. Since then China has been growing like crazy while Japan has been stagnating so now it's collaboration with China and Korea that seems to be the name of the game.

My main question is when we can expect LFP production in NA and if Tesla intends to start making their own LFP.

That was my Say question but it is unfortunately already far down the list.

 

[MC3OZ]

Even though 20%/month growth is great, I think the 4680 delays highlight what a massive success Giga Nevada was getting to 35GWh/year for 3/Y. Doing the collaboration with Panasonic at the time was a very good strategy. Since then China has been growing like crazy while Japan has been stagnating so now it's collaboration with China and Korea that seems to be the name of the game.

My main question is when we can expect LFP production in NA and if Tesla intends to start making their own LFP.

I'm pleased with 4680 progress so far, things are more or less where I expected them to be.

There were delays, and they did seem to be behind schedule 12 months ago, IMO they are now eating into the 6-12 month lag, and could catch up.

IMO the cathode plant at Austin and the Texas Lithium refinery are required to reach peak production at Austin. They are still spooling up and installing a lot of 4680 production equipment at Austin.

Fremont is being rebuilt with the latest production equipment, and when fully ramped, I expect high production volumes..

The Nevada installation should essentially be a cut-and-paste of Austin.

The IRA does provides some incentives to produce LFP cells in NA, Nevada might be a good place to do that.

 

[SOULPEDL]

UAW hits Ford Truck lines with 8,300 walkout a couple hours ago.

“Kentucky Truck Plant produces Ford's Super Duty trucks and a pair of large SUVs, the Ford Expedition and the Lincoln Navigator. It generates about $25 billion a year — about one-sixth of the Dearborn automaker's annual revenue, according to the company.”

UAW orders surprise walkout of 8,700 workers at lucrative Ford truck plant

The move marked the first time the union had expanded the strike without publicly stating a deadline for a new walkout.

www.detroitnews.com

 

[betstarship]

New page, six global partners (so far).
Home - Starlink - Direct to Cell

why is this a big deal? why post to this thread? worldwide internet connectivity everywhere with no dead zones in just a few years for all countries (even 3rd world).

Probably going to add a ton to GDP everywhere in a few short years.

e.g. Can internet access lead to improved economic outcomes?

Edit: TMUS, on the stock market, is certainly worth looking at.

 

[mongo]

why is this a big deal? why post to this thread? worldwide internet connectivity everywhere with no dead zones in just a few years for all countries (even 3rd world).

Probably going to add a ton to GDP everywhere in a few short years.

e.g. Can internet access lead to improved economic outcomes?

Edit: TMUS, on the stock market, is certainly worth looking at.

Just for clarity, my post is on a different thread. betstarship is using rhetorical questions referencing their quoting of the informationon on this thread.

 

[betstarship]

Just for clarity, my post is on a different thread. betstarship is using rhetorical questions referencing their quoting of the informationon on this thread.

sigh, I had to look up rhetorical. If I must, it's a set of questions prefacing or priming the reader to understand why I posted on this particular thread (as mods have asked for that in the past).

 

[loquitur]

So, basically the same thing they did with Maxwell, buy the company, transfer the patents and IP for dry electrode to Tesla, and then sell the company back to the original owners for a bargain. This time they probably got some wireless charging IP and a few really sharp engineers in the deal. Very smart, IMO. Tesla really doesn't need another company to manage, especially if most of their product isn't in the automotive or robotics fields.

Ah, ye olde "acquihire", which AAPL also has been wont to do. Cf. google search "acquihire"

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1712340671145640353

https://twitter.com/x/status/1712330776585351478

 

[jamaatta]

A good sign:

"Tesla posted a job opening for a Proto Production Supervisor to manage and execute the company’s actuator prototype production line for the Optimus humanoid robot."

Tesla bot job opening hints at progress toward production

A Tesla bot job opening hints that the company is making steady progress toward production. Optimus is coming.

www.teslarati.com

 

[EQC_]

...

Fremont is being rebuilt with the latest production equipment, and when fully ramped, I expect high production volumes.

...

Do we know the details or progress of Fremont upgrades?

I remember seeing a huge new foundation being built near the gigapresses, and I think we saw permits to take down and upgrade parts of the model 3 lines. But haven't seen recent updates or timeline predictions....

 

[SPadival]

This seems to have gone unnoticed

https://twitter.com/x/status/1711842500258975788

 

[SPadival]

I forgot to add.. let a thousand YouTube videos bloom, speculating about what “Tesla's Virtual Machine Mode” means and how it is a “moat” adding $10 trillion to the valuation

 

[Christine69420]

I forgot to add.. let a thousand YouTube videos bloom, speculating about what “Tesla's Virtual Machine Mode” means and how it is a “moat” adding $10 trillion to the valuation

Not really necessary:

Virtual Machine Mode​

As more wind and solar power replace fossil fuel generation, less mechanical inertia is available on the grid, removing a natural stability buffer in the case of a grid disturbance. Tesla’s Virtual Machine Mode is designed to address these stability challenges by virtually emulating mechanical inertia. Megapack’s built-in inverters with Virtual Machine Mode create grid-forming dynamics that provide grid strength, respond to added and rejected loads and maintain quality voltage at the point of interconnection. In South Australia, the Hornsdale Power Reserve alone can provide up to 3,000 megawatt-seconds of inertia by using Virtual Machine Mode — roughly half of the state’s entire inertia needs.

https://www.tesla.com/support/energy/tesla-software#virtual-machine-mode

 

[NicoV]

Tesla has published it’s fleet API: Tesla Fleet API
It seems all those third party apps will be able to get official support.

 

[Knightshade]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1712340671145640353

https://twitter.com/x/status/1712330776585351478

I think most expected the credit to drop to $3750 for LFP cars (and likely the LR AWD 3 since it's using chinese 2170s) but why would it drop in half on all the other models using japanese or US cells?