Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Not really necessary:



https://www.tesla.com/support/energy/tesla-software#virtual-machine-mode

Naming is clearly engineering humor.

 

[juanmedina]

The best question on Say

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I think most expected the credit to drop to $3750 for LFP cars (and likely the LR AWD 3 since it's using chinese 2170s) but why would it drop in half on all the other models using japanese or US cells?

It is odd. But it must be true, since Tesla has absolutely no incentive to mislead people into thinking they can't wait until the beginning of next quarter when they'd receive a $7,500 rebate at point of sale without concern about liability, instead of buying now and receiving a net $7,500 refund at an indeterminate time no earlier than the middle of next quarter, only if they have sufficient liability.

 

[mongo]

I think most expected the credit to drop to $3750 for LFP cars (and likely the LR AWD 3 since it's using chinese 2170s) but why would it drop in half on all the other models using japanese or US cells?

I expect China sourced LFP to lose all (non-commercial) Clean Vehicle Credit:

(7) Excluded entities. For purposes of this section, the term "new clean vehicle" shall not include --
(B) any vehicle placed in service after December 31, 2023, with respect to which any of the components contained in the battery of such vehicle (as described in subsection (e)(2)(A)) were manufactured or assembled by a foreign entity of concern (as so defined).

Unless Treasury guidance says that only applies to the component credit.

Otherwise, yeah it's only a 10% increase in both mineral and component content, but that may be enough of a shift to not get the mineral credit?

 

[NicoV]

Tesla has published it’s fleet API: Tesla Fleet API
It seems all those third party apps will be able to get official support.

This API is a lot more elaborate than what I’ve seen in the reverse engineered API docs. The focus is on fleet management. Notable additions are calls to let Tesla accounts bring their account settings and app usage to a car they don’t own (e.g. rental cars).

 

[2daMoon]

The best question on Say

View attachment 981598

This leaves me thinking those wanting this answered are looking for print ads, billboards, radio, and TV exposure, and, are unaware of the Google ads (which Tesla have been doing because it offers more value for the buck).

The fact is that Tesla has been advertising since then. Just not on TV, etc. where so many people want the ads to play.

This brings up a consideration about whether what these people want is for Tesla's benefit, or, their own. Over decades of traditional advertising the buying public has been programmed to relate to the ads when they already own the product. Seeing their product in an ad reinforces their purchase decision. The feel-good aspect of this is noteworthy in that it bolsters the advertising industry's numbers and make it another way to show their customers, the advertisers, how spending their hard-earned dollars on essentially rah-rah cheer leading to keep owners in the fold by bolstering the idea that they made a good choice.

Granted, to some extent this is a valid method to achieve this, but I don't think it is needed for the auto company that already has the highest percentage of returning customers.

Until Tesla is producing significantly more vehicles than the current demand is able to absorb, there is no advantage to promote advertising just to help existing owners feel better, and, for them to have the knowledge that what they have been sharing with non-owners can also be substantiated in the advertising.

The time for mass-market advertising of Tesla will come, but, to do so too soon will result in frustrated potential buyers who will face long lead times for a product that was advertised before production had ramped enough to service the increased demand.

Perhaps Tesla should put out an ad explaining this to their customers and stockholders who keep demanding more advertising.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1712451035338256678

 

[Knightshade]

It is odd. But it must be true, since Tesla has absolutely no incentive to mislead people into thinking they can't wait until the beginning of next quarter when they'd receive a $7,500 rebate at point of sale without concern about liability, instead of buying now and receiving a net $7,500 refund at an indeterminate time no earlier than the middle of next quarter, only if they have sufficient liability.

I mean, the incentive would be to drive Q4 sales to hit the 1.8M guidance for this year and to encourage folks who were otherwise waiting on the rebate to become POS to act now... somewhat like last Q4 when they offered actual-discounts-on-cars of $7500 to discourage people from waiting for January and the IRA to kick in.

If you lack the liability to use the credit now, threats of losing half the credit don't move you anyway- those folks will wait in either case... but if you DO have enough liability the threat of losing half of it Jan 1 might well motivate you to "sacrifice" getting it at POS Jan 1 rather on your tax return in mid-late Jan in exchange for getting an extra $3750 in your pocket net.

 

[mongo]

I mean, the inventive would be to drive Q4 sales to hit the 1.8M guidance for this year and to encourage folks who were otherwise waiting on the rebate to become POS to act now... somewhat like last Q4 when they offered actual-discounts-on-cars of $7500 to discourage people from waiting for January and the IRA to kick in.

If you lack the liability to use the credit now, threats of losing half the credit don't move you anyway- those folks will wait in either case... but if you DO have enough liability the threat of losing half of it Jan 1 might well motivate you to "sacrifice" getting it at POS Jan 1 rather on your tax return in mid-late Jan in exchange for getting an extra $3750 in your pocket net.

Indeed, someone with $4k of tax liability who wants to buy a Tesla has quite a choice on their hands.
Hopefully, Treasury either releases the new guidance soon, or gives a date that it will not be effective until (similar to how they punted a quarter last time).

 

[betstarship]

why is this a big deal? why post to this thread? worldwide internet connectivity everywhere with no dead zones in just a few years for all countries (even 3rd world).

Probably going to add a ton to GDP everywhere in a few short years.

e.g. Can internet access lead to improved economic outcomes?

Edit: TMUS, on the stock market, is certainly worth looking at.

This is really worth reading:

500 Rise Report

The 500 Global Rise Report is available now. If you're in venture capital or simply want a roadmap for the future of tech, you won't want to miss this original report: 500.co/RiseReport

500.co

There's some slides about SpaceX, Tesla, and a global perspective on the next 3B internet users (and the tech stacks [HW, Connectivity, SW] needed to support them - e.g. cars), etc.

 

[Speedr117]

This is really worth reading:

500 Rise Report

The 500 Global Rise Report is available now. If you're in venture capital or simply want a roadmap for the future of tech, you won't want to miss this original report: 500.co/RiseReport

500.co

There's some slides about SpaceX, Tesla, and a global perspective on the next 3B internet users (and the tech stacks [HW, Connectivity, SW] needed to support them - e.g. cars), etc.

Where's my TL;DR @betstarship? Just kidding. Seriously though, can you post a screenshot of the Tesla/SpaceX slides?

 

[Drumheller]

I've been seeing advertising for Tesla online for a while now. Below is an example seen on Facebook a few minutes ago.

I think too many people are stuck believing advertising means TV and radio. I haven't had cable TV since 2011. I haven't been a radio listener in my car since 2015. Tesla may be targeting a demographic younger than the people that still watch TV ads

 

[Big Time]

What a performance. Hoping this is the mmd

 

[betstarship]

Where's my TL;DR @betstarship? Just kidding. Seriously though, can you post a screenshot of the Tesla/SpaceX slides?

Busy, sorry

 

[DarthPierce]

I've been seeing advertising for Tesla online for a while now. Below is an example seen on Facebook a few minutes ago.

I think too many people are stuck believing advertising means TV and radio. I haven't had cable TV since 2011. I haven't been a radio listener in my car since 2015. Tesla may be targeting a demographic younger than the people that still watch TV ads

View attachment 981627

An add for a car they don't make? why a picture of a ~2019?

 

[Drumheller]

An add for a car they don't make? why a picture of a ~2019?

I had the same thought and then wondered if it's actually Tesla creating the ad or some interested 3rd party. Also, the front end looks like an AI mashup of two different Era Model S to me.

So I could be incorrect about it being Tesla doing the advertising on Facebook.

 

[SOULPEDL]

What's with the roller coaster openings lately? It's like a Day-Trading frenzy (or is it actually?).
I wish people would just buy and hold!

 

[alhounos]

Sorry, I have never seen a Tesla ad anywhere and I’m in a prime demographic in a west coast city. I’ve also never met anyone who is not a total nerd like me who is aware of the value argument for Tesla.

And I don’t buy the “they’re already selling every car they make” argument either. If that was true, why have prices dropped so much?

We can table this tired debate, but us pro-consumer education folks are not conceding the point.

 

[FreqFlyer]

This leaves me thinking those wanting this answered are looking for print ads, billboards, radio, and TV exposure, and, are unaware of the Google ads (which Tesla have been doing because it offers more value for the buck).

The fact is that Tesla has been advertising since then. Just not on TV, etc. where so many people want the ads to play.

This brings up a consideration about whether what these people want is for Tesla's benefit, or, their own. Over decades of traditional advertising the buying public has been programmed to relate to the ads when they already own the product. Seeing their product in an ad reinforces their purchase decision. The feel-good aspect of this is noteworthy in that it bolsters the advertising industry's numbers and make it another way to show their customers, the advertisers, how spending their hard-earned dollars on essentially rah-rah cheer leading to keep owners in the fold by bolstering the idea that they made a good choice.

Granted, to some extent this is a valid method to achieve this, but I don't think it is needed for the auto company that already has the highest percentage of returning customers.

Until Tesla is producing significantly more vehicles than the current demand is able to absorb, there is no advantage to promote advertising just to help existing owners feel better, and, for them to have the knowledge that what they have been sharing with non-owners can also be substantiated in the advertising.

The time for mass-market advertising of Tesla will come, but, to do so too soon will result in frustrated potential buyers who will face long lead times for a product that was advertised before production had ramped enough to service the increased demand.

Perhaps Tesla should put out an ad explaining this to their customers and stockholders who keep demanding more advertising.

When Tesla is having to resort to price reductions to move product is Tesla at that point?

 

[unk45]

This API is a lot more elaborate than what I’ve seen in the reverse engineered API docs. The focus is on fleet management. Notable additions are calls to let Tesla accounts bring their account settings and app usage to a car they don’t own (e.g. rental cars).

Thanks for posting this.

Considering that Hertz has just begun allowing Tesla owners to use their own Tesla app in a Hertz car for individual settings, vehicle access and Supercharging it seems probable that much of this effort was directly for renal car support, maybe driven by some ancillary interest from Turo and other intermediaries.

I am not an expert but this does seem to portend much increased support for fleet support for every case, including municipal and commercial ones. That seems very significant.

Am I overstating the potential? Is there a plausible way to estimate the probable financial impact?