Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

They stopped the 4680 MY AWD. Not sure if/when they will start again.

They stopped taking orders for them, but have they fulfilled all of the orders already placed? (They likely have.)

 

[uscbucsfan]

There is a big chance that Model Y 4680 hasn't stopped, just that now it's on par with the LR, so they are the same. The 10% higher energy density of the 4680 V2 puts the Model Y AWD 4680 pack 1 kWh bigger than the 2170

Now they might have one line dedicated to 2170 and another to 4680, they have to put 4680s somewhere, Cybertruck will eat cells yes, but not until it ramps, and it's way too many cells to keep storing, you can't just put them outside in containers or on the floor like the castings lol

But isn't that 1kWh bigger than a 2170 at almost twice the size per battery? Maybe I've read this wrong.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Honest question, is there any evidence that Musk pushed for the removal of the stalks against advice of the design/engineering team?

None AFAIK, but I've not read the latest biography.

But come on now. Given the history here, and the chronic video game play noted in the bio, is there really any questions whose idea it was . . . .

Really?

 

[betstarship]

Hm...I did some analysis and found something interesting:

Q4/2019 Min IC: 550k
2020 Deliveries: 498,920
Error Rate (Min IC vs. Deliveries): 9.3%

Next material change:

Q4/2020 Min IC: 950k
2021 Deliveries: 935,950
Error Rate (Min IC vs. Deliveries): 1.48%

Next material change:

Q2/2022 Min IC: 1.9M
Q3/2022 to Q3/2023 Deliveries: 1,638,123
Error Rate (Min IC vs. Deliveries): 13.8%

So, going off of the consistent 1.5-15% error rate in the year after a material change in the minimum installed capacity...the latest one is this quarter by adding the Cybertruck and Shanghai improvements in IC. For the sake of consistency, let's say they have a 14% error rate (to the lower) again from Q3 / 2023 to Q3 / 2024.

Q3/2023 Min IC: 2.35M
Error Rate (Min IC vs. Deliveries): 14%

Q3/2023 to Q3/2024 Estimated Deliveries: 2.021M

 

[MP3Mike]

There is a big chance that Model Y 4680 hasn't stopped, just that now it's on par with the LR, so they are the same. The 10% higher energy density of the 4680 V2 puts the Model Y AWD 4680 pack 1 kWh bigger than the 2170

Is that accurate? 10% more range, which you wouldn't likely get, would be ~296 miles. While the LR is rated for 330 miles. So, you would still be ~12% below the 2170 LR range.

 

[2daMoon]

Maybe in context of audio/streaming. I'd argue that Tesla is giving away access to NACS and, apparently, access to Superchargers. I won't pretend to know the details, but the rate of NACS adoption and Supercharger deals inked in the last few months make me question just how savvy Tesla was on this vs what they could have been. But, to be fair, I seem to sit here in my chair, analyze and question most everything Tesla does as if I'm some expert. I'm not.

When something looks wonky to me I do a self-check to make sure I've taken the perspective of how it jives with "accelerate the transition," rather than how does that "increase profits/share price/etc."

After making that mental correction things like that are usually more understandable.

For example: Anything that makes it easier for more EVs from any brand using the Superchargers a better experience for consumers will accelerate the transition.

 

[thx1139]

There is a big chance that Model Y 4680 hasn't stopped, just that now it's on par with the LR, so they are the same. The 10% higher energy density of the 4680 V2 puts the Model Y AWD 4680 pack 1 kWh bigger than the 2170

Now they might have one line dedicated to 2170 and another to 4680, they have to put 4680s somewhere, Cybertruck will eat cells yes, but not until it ramps, and it's way too many cells to keep storing, you can't just put them outside in containers or on the floor like the castings lol

Are you saying they arent selling the Model Y 4680 version and just storing them somewhere.

With as large as Texas why not move more production of Model Y to Texas so Fremont can get Model 3 Highland lines done and get Model 3 Highland launched in USA.

 

[unk45]

Maybe in context of audio/streaming. I'd argue that Tesla is giving away access to NACS and, apparently, access to Superchargers. I won't pretend to know the details, but the rate of NACS adoption and Supercharger deals inked in the last few months make me question just how savvy Tesla was on this vs what they could have been. But, to be fair, I seem to sit here in my chair, analyze and question most everything Tesla does as if I'm some expert. I'm not.

FWIW, it seems to me that they might have extracted something more on the surface. We do not know the pricing for the adapters that Tesla is providing, but many of them might be provided by others too, after all the code is now open source, is it not? My speculation is simply the profit margin from increased Supercharger revenue, which has been rising quickly anyway, but probably will grow most in Europe where it's already widely available them in the US in 2025 mostly, probably.

Anyway we're now about the hear the disappointing third quarter results.

 

[GhostSkater]

But isn't that 1kWh bigger than a 2170 at almost twice the size per battery? Maybe I've read this wrong.

Is that accurate? 10% more range, which you wouldn't likely get, would be ~296 miles. While the LR is rated for 330 miles. So, you would still be ~12% below the 2170 LR range.

I'm talking at pack level gross energy, Model Y 2170 packs are 82 kWh, Model Y AWD 4680 V1 was 71.6 kWh, new one with 4680s V2 would be 78.6 kWh, you guys are right, not the same

Maybe Cybertruck ramp will be quicker to use all those cells

 

[unk45]

I'm not a developer, but I deal with the financials from the applications and know what is being paid (sometimes nothing at all depending on the type of app or agreement) and what is not being paid. Do you understand the complexity of something like Youtube TV to be on every single device? They aren't paying all of those companies a portion of their ads. It's ridiculous to think otherwise, but this is the last I'll post on it. Thinking Tesla gets a cut of all YT ads, Tune-in ads, Spotify ads, simply because Tesla allows the application in their cars is not reality.

I clearly posted misleading statements. I meant to be referring to the placement of those apps in the cars, not the ads placed directly in the apps generically. It's probably too obscure to trey to parse all the text. I'm sorry that I made unclear details. Some placements of apps with third parties does provide for profit sharing, but that sharing does not take place at individual ad level, as has been noted by more than one person.

Regardless, we all agree that this topic will not generate material revenue in an accounting sense by itself anytime at all.

 

[Hock1]

I'm talking at pack level gross energy, Model Y 2170 packs are 82 kWh, Model Y AWD 4680 V1 was 71.6 kWh, new one with 4680s V2 would be 78.6 kWh, you guys are right, not the same

Maybe Cybertruck ramp will be quicker to use all those cells

I clearly posted misleading statements. I meant to be referring to the placement of those apps in the cars, not the ads placed directly in the apps generically. It's probably too obscure to trey to parse all the text. I'm sorry that I made unclear details. Some placements of apps with third parties does provide for profit sharing, but that sharing does not take place at individual ad level, as has been noted by more than one person.

Regardless, we all agree that this topic will not generate material revenue in an accounting sense by itself anytime at all.

Speaking of things looking up: Is This The End Of Naked Short Selling? | ZeroHedge. This could be the start of something BIG.

 

[mongo]

I'm talking at pack level gross energy, Model Y 2170 packs are 82 kWh, Model Y AWD 4680 V1 was 71.6 kWh, new one with 4680s V2 would be 78.6 kWh, you guys are right, not the same

Maybe Cybertruck ramp will be quicker to use all those cells

It's not that many cells...

10 million cells in 4 months
100Wh/cell = 1,000,000 kWh / 4 months = 60,000kWh/wk /150kWh pack (rough number) = 400 trucks per week
Versus factory 125,000/yr = 2,500/wk

My guess is the Y was using Kato cells.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

For once...for once, $TSLA finally reacts the RIGHT way like other stocks....Post a miss and go up AH!!!

 

[cliff harris]

Finances are not as good as we would like, but its important to have perspective:

• Ford is closing down shifts because nobody will buy their truck
• Rivian is still bleeding money
• Lucid is bleeding so much they are swimming
• GM are at war with their own employees
• Toyota are still nowhere...

The only big player in the west for EVs is still growing, building 1 new huge factory, a megapack factory AND a lithium refinery, all while pushing the boundaries with optimus and FSD, oh and still ramping Berlin and Texas.Cybertruck is imminent, and we now have a delivery date. 6 weeks, at 3 trucks/day, surely 100+ delivered that day?

Ford, GM, Toyota, VW... they would all give their right arm to be where Tesla is now. I'm a long term investor. I'd like to see $300 soon, but that didn't take into account Ukraine & now Gaza. There is uncertainty in geopolitics AND we still have the post-covid recession worries. Its a tough time for everything in the market right now.

But long term, it still looks hilariously good. Cybertruck deliveries will be a great catalyst. 6 weeks to go. I suspect Q4 will be much better, Q1 2024 much much better.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Hm...I did some analysis and found something interesting:

Q4/2019 Min IC: 550k
2020 Deliveries: 498,920
Error Rate (Min IC vs. Deliveries): 9.3%

Next material change:

Q4/2020 Min IC: 950k
2021 Deliveries: 935,950
Error Rate (Min IC vs. Deliveries): 14.8%

Next material change:

Q2/2022 Min IC: 1.9M
Q3/2022 to Q3/2023 Deliveries: 1,638,123
Error Rate (Min IC vs. Deliveries): 13.8%

So, going off of the consistent 9-15% error rate in the year after a material change in the minimum installed capacity...the latest one is this quarter by adding the Cybertruck and Shanghai improvements in IC. For the sake of consistency, let's say they have a 14% error rate (to the lower) again from Q3 / 2023 to Q3 / 2024.

Q3/2023 Min IC: 2.35M
Error Rate (Min IC vs. Deliveries): 14%

Q3/2023 to Q3/2024 Estimated Deliveries: 2.021M

A small but not trivial correction: 2021 deliveries were 1.48% below installed capacity, not 14.8%.

Not sure how much that affects your analysis.

 

[Open Interest]

For once...for once, $TSLA finally reacts the RIGHT way like other stocks....Post a miss and go up AH!!!

Please don’t jinx!!

 

[unk45]

Speaking of things looking up: Is This The End Of Naked Short Selling? | ZeroHedge. This could be the start of something BIG.

This one we can all hope works out well for the real investors. Given history we really need to wait until all the appeals run out and when penalized, the entails are more than a few minutes profits. Until they hit custodians and large brokers as well as only a symbolic few nothing will really change. Still, that is good news!

 

[Max Plaid]

For once...for once, $TSLA finally reacts the RIGHT way like other stocks....Post a miss and go up AH!!!

Same with P&D, was way below expectations and up we went

It's only fair given all the beats we've had over the years that ended up -10% the next day...

Of course we have the earnings call to come and will depend which version of Elon turns up

 

[jerry33]

Maybe in context of audio/streaming. I'd argue that Tesla is giving away access to NACS and, apparently, access to Superchargers. I won't pretend to know the details, but the rate of NACS adoption and Supercharger deals inked in the last few months make me question just how savvy Tesla was on this vs what they could have been. But, to be fair, I seem to sit here in my chair, analyze and question most everything Tesla does as if I'm some expert. I'm not.

NACS is a case of give away the razor, sell the blades.

 

[Kenypowa]

Hm...I did some analysis and found something interesting:

Q4/2019 Min IC: 550k
2020 Deliveries: 498,920
Error Rate (Min IC vs. Deliveries): 9.3%

Next material change:

Q4/2020 Min IC: 950k
2021 Deliveries: 935,950
Error Rate (Min IC vs. Deliveries): 14.8%

Next material change:

Q2/2022 Min IC: 1.9M
Q3/2022 to Q3/2023 Deliveries: 1,638,123
Error Rate (Min IC vs. Deliveries): 13.8%

So, going off of the consistent 9-15% error rate in the year after a material change in the minimum installed capacity...the latest one is this quarter by adding the Cybertruck and Shanghai improvements in IC. For the sake of consistency, let's say they have a 14% error rate (to the lower) again from Q3 / 2023 to Q3 / 2024.

Q3/2023 Min IC: 2.35M
Error Rate (Min IC vs. Deliveries): 14%

Q3/2023 to Q3/2024 Estimated Deliveries: 2.021M

Your 2020/2021 number is off. It is 1.48% not 14.8%.