Don't give SMR "3-D Chess" material.
Seriously, I've been thinking about what kind of master plan might have been behind this conference call. If there was a master plan, this seems like a good candidate. Axium's Razor at play.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Seriously, I've been thinking about what kind of master plan might have been behind this conference call. If there was a master plan, this seems like a good candidate. Axium's Razor at play.
Giga Mexico timing is dependent on funding from Mexican federal or provincial government? Ay…….
It's completed and been brought into production. It's online. Dodger's transcript source had a typo:
"We recently completed a 10,000 GPU cluster of h100s. We think, probably bringing it into operation faster than anyone's ever bought that much compute per unit time into production"
Timestamped audio:
Update on accomplished mission milestones: Biggest importer of VW in Norway will stop importing VW ICE-vehicles starting in a few months.
Translated source: Slutter å selge bensin- og dieselbiler i Norge
Translated source: Slutter å selge bensin- og dieselbiler i Norge
The real question is whether or not Berlin will keep ramping or will it hold near that rate of 375K/yr? Looking at that graph it should ramp well past 375K by the end of next year.
Regarding the decision to make the Cybertruck instead of a conventional truck, we need to reserve judgement until we see the specs of the Cybertruck.
Ford's conventional electric pickup is not winning over conventional pickup buyers. It's not helping the mission.
To replace gas-powered pickup trucks, you need an EV that is actually better than a conventional truck. Ford's version has a huge frunk and an on-board power source that lets you plug in your tools and potentially powers your house. Those are great features but it hasn't made up for the lack of range, lack of towing range, and general "bugginess" of the vehicle. And it's a terrible road trip car, which is a problem that still won't be completely solved by NACS.
Think about how Tesla won over sedan buyers. They offered an EV that was superior to a gas car in every way. This is what has to be done for an EV to win the truck market.
If Tesla went the F-150 Lightning route three years ago they would have been first to market with a disappointing vehicle. And they would have been battery constrained because the only way to give it decent range is to add a huge, expensive battery pack. This is especially true for towing. So Tesla would have been stuck.
I don't think there was any master plan behind the call.
Elon has a lot going on in his personal life. Zack was not there to help keep Elon focused. They will do better next time.
Remember that Norway is banning NEW ICEV sales from 2025. I suspect some sellers want to get out now, while others might anticipate a rush in 2024.
My take is that Tesla is approaching the top of the demand curves for the Y and 3 (sans advertising- which Elon basically doesn’t believe in). Unfortunately Cybertruck production doesn’t look to be really scalable- 3m orders but only 250k annual production - and the next gen car is years away.
So Elon needs to reset investor expectations.
His excuse is interest rates and macro. US auto sales have been fine and have been nowhere near the very temporary dips due to either the pandemic or 2008 banking crisis
Total Vehicle Sales
View data of the total number of new vehicles sold in the U.S. in a given month.fred.stlouisfed.org
US auto sales _had_ been fine, trending back up towards 2019 levels, but July and August dropped.
US Total Vehicle Sales Monthly Trends: Supplemental Estimates | YCharts
In depth view into US Total Vehicle Sales including historical data from 1976 to 2024, charts and stats.
ycharts.com
I agree, Probably not. Elon has clearly been trying to manipulate the Fed, maybe persuade is a better word, for the past year, but the tone and results of that call probably weren't part of that effort. Or any other.
Some politicians wanting to ban <> Banning
Afaik, nothing is decided yet, so this is good news and may actually help the ban coming through.
Nevertheless, hadn’t it been for Tesla…
It is encouraging that other EV’s having trouble indicates demand concerns don’t apply specifically to Tesla.
But if interest rates are the primary demand killer, they should apply just as much to luxury ICE vehicles. Are we seeing this?
Interest rate overall didn't kill demand, but dampens demand generation. Tesla's demand nearly doubled from 2 years ago just to match the double in production. However with such interest rate, it's hard to generate additional 50% more demand than the current demand of 1.8M/year is what Musk is saying.
See, this sort of post is why I made an account. Many likes for this tweet which is obvious trash.
This is becoming obnoxious.
You see, if this source were correct (after posting > 5,000 per week estimates for all of Q3), then Tesla would have produced ~ 75k to 80k cars in Berlin.
@Troy estimates Berlin produced 45,000.
45k, not 75k
3500 per week, not 6000 / week. Not 5000 / week. Not even 4000 / week.
The cognitive dissonance is amazing.
I’ve been around for a few rodeos. The first home loan I had was at 6.5%. I never had one under 6%. That never stopped me from buying a house, but it did influence what I bought. Car loans were more than that and terms were 3years with rule of 78s interest calcs. Didn’t stop me from buying cars. It did mean I bought manuals, no power anything cars. Interest rates are within the “normal “ range now. Zero interest rates helped put us in the mess we’re in, and I hope we never see them again. I agree with Mr. Musk’s feelings about where we( and Tesla) are at the moment. Also, all the easy conversions have been made in Tesla’s current markets. The hard slog against entrenched brands begins. My guesstimate is that Tesla needs to get another $5000 out of 3andY prices to make the argument compelling and the monthly payment figure reasonable. All indications are that Tesla is hard at work at getting that$5000 out of the cost of both models. I’m encouraged somewhat by the negativity Of the call. He gets it.
China is imposing some limits to graphite export.
They will require "special export permits".
Anyone have any insight if this would practically affect Tesla's ability to import graphite?
www.ft.com
They will require "special export permits".
Anyone have any insight if this would practically affect Tesla's ability to import graphite?
China imposes export curbs on graphite
Restrictions on critical electric vehicle battery material set to escalate trade tensions with US
www.ft.com
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
CT has a lower Cd - good for range including towing
Won't be buggy because s/w will be almost identical to other Teslas
Supercharger network
I don't think we need to reserve judgement. 250k won't be nearly enough but that is okay.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
FSLR down 2%
Not sure if 1% of TSLA being down 2% is due to this news
Solar Roof is the right product and Elon is holding back ramp until you can install quickly.
Not sure if 1% of TSLA being down 2% is due to this news
Solar Roof is the right product and Elon is holding back ramp until you can install quickly.
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