Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JupiterMan]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1715376198795059591

Sounds like we might need to increase our kWh estimates!

FYI in the replies on X there's a note that those weights are the heaviest operating weights when fully loaded, not the actual empty vehicle weight.

 

[mongo]

Cybertruck is similar. Sure...they could have had it to market in, say, 2020, if they went with a ladder frame design and figured out how to wedge almost as many battery cells into it...

In 2020, there were no factories (just construction) at Austin nor Berlin. Shanghai was only just starting production on 3. It was also the first year for the Y.
So Tesla would wedge a new truck line into Fremont while dealing with C19 shutdowns?
2020 also saw Tesla raise $12 Billion through three share issuances. Risking 3/Y ramp and cash flows with another new product launch would have been very not conservative.

(Assuming the cell capacity existed somewhere).

 

[Cosmacelf]

Considering Tesla has a China factory, would this restriction on Graphite export allow them to manufacture locally and then export finished products (parts) to their other factories?

Yes.

If so, this ban wouldn't be much of a deterrent for the Big T.
For everyone else planning on China as a Graphite source the ban could be painful.

It might not be a big deterrent to some others too since Chinese battery cell manufacturers would be able to access Chinese graphite and then just export Chinese batteries. Iy could impact the Korean and Japanese battery manufacturers though.

Good thing Tesla has battery sourcing agreements with CATL and BYD!

 

[GhostSkater]

That's max gross vehicle weight rating GVWR, not curb weight.

Yep, just edited my post, if it still 3500 lbs payload this is amazing

 

[mongo]

Yep, just edited my post, if it still 3500 lbs payload this is amazing

Deleted mine, but here's the addendum

Yeah, reveal payload was 3,500, if we say 3,000 instead, curb is under 6,000 for one version and just over 6,000 for the other accounting for additional drive unit mass. [Edit: as @DarthPierce reminds me, there will be additional pack mass also]
3,500 for both puts curb over/under at 5,500.

For reference:
Rivian GVWR is 8,532 , payload 1,760
F-150 Lightning is 8,500 ish GVWR, 1,650 to 2,200 max
F-150 ICE is 6,200 to 7,300 GVWR, 2,455 max payload for 2024

Sub 10k GVWR means CHMSL which worries me based on release candidate rear lights and FMVSS 108 (topic for a different theead).

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Bought some more at $211.50, this is the last of my spare change, i mean it this time!

 

[JupiterMan]

Bought some more at $211.50, this is the last of my spare change, i mean it this time!

i said that yesterday.

and bought more today !

 

[jerry33]

For those that didn't buy a new Tesla in Q3 for the FSD transfer, you can now buy a new Tesla [S/X/Y, not 3] and get your unlimited lifetime superchargering transfered.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1715288371528966541

$TSLA just has to get high enough so I can without selling too many shares.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

i said that yesterday.

and bought more today !

Hopefully you and i will not have to say it again

 

[GhostSkater]

Sub 10k GVWR means CHMSL which worries me based on release candidate rear lights and FMVSS 108 (topic for a different theead).

I think it's relevant here since it's related to what customer base can buy it

What are the implications? Google didn't help me, that the average Joe with his regular license can't drive it without additional qualifications?

 

[Unpilot]

Sub 10k GVWR means CHMSL which worries me based on release candidate rear lights and FMVSS 108 (topic for a different theead).

MONGO decoder broke....please decode....;thank you.

 

[AudubonB]

It’s between rates, cost of items and wages. Something has to give.
I’d prefer rates and cost of items drop rather than wages increase. Many people will not have access to higher wages but everyone has access to lower rates/prices.

The Fed’s goal of 2% does not have, in the aggregate, the cost of items dropping.
Nor does 1%.
Nor even 0%.

An economy must be deflationary for that to occur and to the best my memory can recall, no nation in history ever has been able to navigate happily that event. And especially not the lower 90%+ of its population.

 

[SOULPEDL]

i said that yesterday.

and bought more today !

Bought some more at $211.50, this is the last of my spare change, i mean it this time!

Squeaked it in... 25 chairs at 210.88. Fingers crossed.

 

[MountainRatMat]

The Fed’s goal of 2% does not have, in the aggregate, the cost of items drop.
Nor does 1%.
Nor even 0%.

An economy must be deflationary for that to occur and to the best my memory can recall, no nation in history ever has been able to navigate happily that event. And especially not the lower 90%+ of its population.

This is exactly right. Once inflation has happened and is brought back under control prices don't drop, they just don't rise as quickly anymore.

If prices were to drop then you are in a deflationary period which most people agree is less than ideal.

 

[insaneoctane]

thumbs up if you will buy more TSLA share when it drops to 200 per share?

I already deployed some at $220. Looking for 2-3 more opportunities if they present. Trying to decide what my personal thresholds will be. I only accumulate these days. Haven't sold TSLA since 2014. That still stings

 

[thx1139]

The Fed’s goal of 2% does not have, in the aggregate, the cost of items dropping.
Nor does 1%.
Nor even 0%.

An economy must be deflationary for that to occur and to the best my memory can recall, no nation in history ever has been able to navigate happily that event. And especially not the lower 90%+ of its population.

Deflation destroys economies. People start waiting for purchases that arent 100% needed waiting for price decreases. Maybe someone should tell Elon.

 

[willow_hiller]

Well measured note from Jonas. Important to focus on the long term:

"We see Tesla’s incrementally negative outlook as a sign the company wants to err on the side of caution to ‘protect the House’ at a time of elevated macro, consumer and geopolitical risk. At various times in Tesla’s history the company’s strategy has swung from offensive to defensive. The current tone has clearly shifted to the latter. While the reset may hurt shares near term, we believe this may prove to be the right strategy for the company and its stakeholders over the long term."

 

[mongo]

I think it's relevant here since it's related to what customer base can buy it

What are the implications? Google didn't help me, that the average Joe with his regular license can't drive it without additional qualifications?

MONGO decoder broke....please decode....;thank you.

Well, since you asked...

FMVSS 108 does not permit the center high-mounted brake lamp (CHMSL) to be combined with any other lamps/ reflectors other than the cargo lamp (which it cannot be optically combined with).

The RC Cybertrucks with the single piece full width tailgate taillamp that toggles to the brake lamp violates this requirement.

If Cybertruck were over 10k GCWR, the CHMSL would not be required equipment so one could overlook it, maybe. Similarly, the toggling taillamp is iffy on its own, but it's auxiliary, not primary, so might squeak through as a non-taillamp taillamp.
My guess is Tesla will need to disable the tailgate taillamp or else replace the assembly with two separate pieces.

More topical thread:
Investor Engineering Discussions

Example of behavior:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1691312460869902336

 

[DarthPierce]

People are thinking the split in GVWR is due to the extra motor.... based on the initial info, it's pretty likely that the difference in GVWR between the dual and tri is actually because of the bigger pack(many pounds) not the 3rd motor(150lbs?).

 

[InTheMiddle]

Picked up two 10k blocks of TSLA this AM - should be an interesting Q4.