Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[nativewolf]

If there is a labor shortage affecting Giga Nevada, I wonder why Tesla would decide to expand that plant with Semi and 4680 lines?

Reno has grown a lot since 2014, lots of other companies have moved in, at the same time people are more open to leaving CA.

 

[Mike Smith]

Kudos to Cruise for safely dragging an injured pedestrian to the side of the road, out of harm's way. Tesla FSD does not currently have this feature.

 

[CaliBear1]

Agreed. The model 3 automation fails is exactly where I see Tesla leveraging the bot on the line. I think they may well use the FSD chip from the bot, and the actuators from the bot, and even the bot arms, but for a fixed location on the line, its inefficient (and elon hates that) to build a bipedal robot that will just stand at a fixed spot on the line. You might as well do away with any variability in stance etc and just weld a bot torso to that point on the line .

Flexibiltiy is great, but I'm sure there are some locations where they know exactly what needs doing, and don't expect it to vary. Maybe a pair of bot arms is attaching the windscreen wipers all day, or fitting tal-lights. No need for legs there. (I guess if things go well, me might see companies like Kuka or ABB or Fanuc start to struggle, or even get bought by tesla if they want a quick way to scale bot production. KUKA has a $3bn market cap. Fanuc 24bn)

But I DO expect Tesla, like any company would, to focus in their marketing materials on bots with 2 legs walking around and appearing human. Thats what people expect to see.

All prelude to deploying robots on asteroids and planets for mining and terraforming.

 

[ggr]

Do we know why?

Everyone expected them to beat, but they didn't beat as much as everyone expected. /s

 

[SOULPEDL]

Lol, the shortzes plan to chop the SP before they hear the results; they don't care about the actual results. Sound familiar?

$ECdueurjob

Google down 4.5% at the close. Wow, a month erased before earnings even released. Ya… BS!

 

[SOULPEDL]

Which is why I wish Tesla would push for L3 on controlled access highways first, then city/streets then move to L4/L5. The average owner doesn’t care much for robotaxi they want to read/text and view videos.

Will be interesting to see how far down this path V12 gets us and if Tesla will ever phase in FSD as outlined above or will they hold out for robotaxi functionality? Elon appears to be pretty stubborn over full robotaxi.

Or focus on a specific city, like Chandler. I’m literally just applying the same logic that Elon stated last Earnings. That was to focus on one Country at a time due to the large volume of data. So break it down further until perfect, and release the beast!

Like you mentioned, Freeways first, following how they rolled out FSD features, in baby steps. My favorite is initially when there is no one in the car.

 

[CaliBear1]

Not disappointing at all. Not in the least. Hopefully this means that there really is healthy demand for this vehicle, and that Tesla will sell every CT they can make over the next couple years at this price. Speaking only for myself, the reason I never put down a deposit for CT is because I didn't want money tied up for who knows how long for a vehicle that I might have to wait 5 years for. And maybe Tesla "loses" my deposit, or my place in line or something, so I don't bother with the whole deposit game.

The CT is such a radically different vehicle than anyone has ever seen that even yahoos like myself, who have never owned a pickup in their lives and never planned to, will buy a 100K CT. Even my partner, as pathologically cheap as she is wants a stupid CT. We hate spending money especially on frivolous things like vehicles, but we are getting a CT just for the cool novelty of it. She's not even a car person and thinks fancy cars are dumb, but she's excited for the CT.

We're excited for first deliveries, and will gladly pony up 100K for a CT when we can get one within two months.

I gave a funny emoji for "pathologically cheap." If I had been drinking coffee as I read that it would have been a disaster for my phone.

 

[Todd Burch]

Lol, the shortzes plan to chop the SP before they hear the results; they don't care about the actual results. Sound familiar?

$ECdueurjob

No way. I mean, there are protections put in place to support investors, right? Like for example, there's no way these shortzes you speak of could manufacture imaginary shares out of thin air in order to sell short, right? That would be crazy if one could do that and get away with it. Phooey. I'm going to go back and continue to read my trusty reliable New York Times.

 

[Bouboule]

My wife is from Thailand, so we are here on our annual visit. Interesting to see the EV landscape develop quickly since we last visited in early 2022. When we were here last year almost no EV's and the Tesla's were gray market imports. EV's quickly became 8% of the market.

BYD is everywhere with about 50% of the EV market. We got to ride in a BYD Dolphin for a taxi ride using Grab which is an Uber like service. It was quite nice for an inexpensive compact in the $25K price range. You could tell the interior was some what inexpensive but it was still a well built car. The screen did not quite have the resolution of a Tesla and the UI looked quite simple. It had a large glass roof with an automated cover which was impressive for the cost of the car.

The driver told us he only paid 1 Thai BHT per Kwh which is only about $0.03 US. My guess is there is some subsidy for the Taxi drivers as electricity is not that cheap here. Also Taxi's make up a large portion of the fleet here as many people do without a car especially in Bangkok. I expect there will be quick uptake by the Taxi fleet for the economics.

My guess is the Chinese makers and Tesla will take most of the market. The Japanese car companies will be the biggest losers here during the transition. They have typically dominated here with 80-90% of the market. I understand BYD is building a factory in Thailand as well. I understand they are working on a small pickup as well which a large portion (45% or so) of the Thai market. Lots of small pickups outside of the cities.

Not to leave out advertising, BYD billboards everywhere. Lots of Tesla's on the road here as well but did not see any advertising.

It's not the first time I see posts on Electrek that are very close to posts in the forum. And unless I missed something, Thailand is not a huge subject at the moment. So I believe your post is the source of this article and you should get some recognition. So I want to say, congrats! your post made it to Electrek!

BYD is stealing Toyota's limelight in this key auto market with low-priced EVs

China’s largest EV maker, BYD, is quickly making a name for itself in overseas markets. Despite recently entering the Thai...

electrek.co

 

[Todd Burch]

Everyone expected them to beat, but they didn't beat as much as everyone expected. /s

Sounds familiar.

 

[GhostSkater]

Just some more thoughts on Cybertruck pack size and how it stacks with the competition

Rivian recently released their Max Pack and in house dual motor drivetrain, in which they switched cells and have a total of 149 kWh and 410 miles of range.
363 Wh/mi or 2.75 mi/kWh

My previous estimation for Cybertruck based of upscaling a Model X was right at 350 Wh/mi or 2.85 mi/kWh, maybe that isn't that far fetched or they can even beat it, considering everything points to Cybertruck being considerably lighter

One of my first estimations long ago was comparing the most efficient EVs from legacy OEMs in each class and seeing how much more efficient the Tesla equivalent was. The result was 8% more efficient without much variation

Let's say Tesla has been working all this time on it and they managed to make it 8% more efficient even than Rivian, which again, with all the talent and obsession they have isn't that hard to believe

This would mean 322 Wh/mi or 3.1 mi/kWh. 161 kWh pack for 500 miles of range, and with IRA manufacturing credits could mean a $8855 cell cost now and with the guidance for costs in the near future, $4025, absolutely mind-blowing if they get anywhere close to that. Even now that is cheaper than a Model S/X pack, which gives us hope for pricing

Can we start the "Cybertruck will be the margin leader vehicle once ramped" hype?

 

[uscbucsfan]

The owner of the Model 3 Highland says he noticed a red shimmer on the cameras and concludes it must be HW4. The latest news I read was that "HW3.5" would be installed on the Highland, whatever that means. How to find out which HW version actually is installed in Highland? If it's HW3.5, would it be retrofittable to HW4?

HW 3.5 isn't real. It's made up by people assuming or hoping there will be additonal cameras added.

 

[Xepa777]

Just some more thoughts on Cybertruck pack size and how it stacks with the competition

Rivian recently released their Max Pack and in house dual motor drivetrain, in which they switched cells and have a total of 149 kWh and 410 miles of range.
363 Wh/mi or 2.75 mi/kWh

My previous estimation for Cybertruck based of upscaling a Model X was right at 350 Wh/mi or 2.85 mi/kWh, maybe that isn't that far fetched or they can even beat it, considering everything points to Cybertruck being considerably lighter

One of my first estimations long ago was comparing the most efficient EVs from legacy OEMs in each class and seeing how much more efficient the Tesla equivalent was. The result was 8% more efficient without much variation

Let's say Tesla has been working all this time on it and they managed to make it 8% more efficient even than Rivian, which again, with all the talent and obsession they have isn't that hard to believe

This would mean 322 Wh/mi or 3.1 mi/kWh. 161 kWh pack for 500 miles of range, and with IRA manufacturing credits could mean a $8855 cell cost now and with the guidance for costs in the near future, $4025, absolutely mind-blowing if they get anywhere close to that. Even now that is cheaper than a Model S/X pack, which gives us hope for pricing

Can we start the "Cybertruck will be the margin leader vehicle once ramped" hype?

I remember reading this same type of extrapolation logic for battery day and tesla 2030 deliveries with 25%+ margin lol.

I’m gonna save you the effort and say “no” because of (1) what Elon has said multiple times publicly preparing investors for a horrific margin, (2) clear, regular evidence of the 4680 cells not meeting battery day expectations so far, and (3) Tesla continued delays with the truck coming out (if you’ve been following Tesla for any reasonable amount of time you see it’s clear that whatever narrative reason Elon says for something doesn’t match up a lot with probable/actual factors). It wasn’t due to “unlimited demand” for model y, there’s clearly problems with the cybertruck that happens when you announce a price before fleshing out manufacturing details.

 

[Thekiwi]

It's not the first time I see posts on Electrek that are very close to posts in the forum. And unless I missed something, Thailand is not a huge subject at the moment. So I believe your post is the source of this article and you should get some recognition. So I want to say, congrats! your post made it to Electrek!
View attachment 985051

BYD is stealing Toyota's limelight in this key auto market with low-priced EVs

China’s largest EV maker, BYD, is quickly making a name for itself in overseas markets. Despite recently entering the Thai...

electrek.co

I walked passed a BYD restaurant on Singapores river walk today. WTF Bizarre.

 

[Thekiwi]

Thekiwi noted not exactly the stock price as Elon's obsession, but the size/value of Tesla. Tightly related, I know...but there's a broader Tesla and TSLA related issue, so bear with me.

Thekiwi said:

"...being the most valuable company in the world, which for some reason Elon seems obsessed with now. The primary focus should be the mission, not the stock price..."

And I suspect the use of the word "obsession" is the media twist talking. I think Elon has said two or three times now that he can possibly see Tesla growing to be the biggest company in the world...bigger than Apple and Saudi Aramco combined, right?

Now...saying something two or three times isn't an obsession. And Elon doesn't even state it as a goal, but more as a possible result if Tesla is successful with all the things that they are working on....which is even less of an obsession toward that valuation, and more of an indication that he is indeed obsessed with trying to achieve many mission-related and tangential goals for Tesla, and believes that will drive huge value for the world, the company, and as a result the stock.

But, obsession, and especially obsession with money, is the kind of wording the media will use to get clicks...and it sticks in people's minds if they hear/read it enough.

"Obsession"..."Promised"..."Refused"... Any article, blog, or comment using these words related to Tesla and Elon can probably be seen as either trying to drive clicks via emotion-inducing wording, or has been tainted by reading these words elsewhere again and again.

Elon isn't "obsessed" with something...he has just said it a few times...weeks or months apart.

Elon didn't "promise" anything (and then break that promise). He predicted something. Or just said it. How do journalists get away with acting like crying toddlers, saying mommy promised them a cookie?

Tesla didn't "refuse" to comment on some article...they just didn't comment. Elon didn't "refuse" to put a bunch of buttons all over the dashboard (or whatever complaint of the day somebody is pushing). He and the Tesla team just made a different decision.

Inflammatory words though...they're memorable and contagious and help feed the FUD that the media relentlessly pushes on Tesla.

Fair retort.

 

[Max Plaid]

Hmm, interesting... Could this also include broadcasting other info like speed limit signs (not working in Europe right now) to the fleet?!

Tesla to Add Waze-like Reporting, Supercharger Congestion Fees, Better Alternate Routes, Autodial 911

Explore Tesla's 2023.38 update: Supercharger congestion fees, dynamic road alerts, enhanced safety, and real-time alternate routes.

www.notateslaapp.com

How about adding speed cameras, like every other GPS out there on the planet?

 

[JusRelax]

LK Machinery is introducing their 16k ton Die-casting machine either today or tomorrow (unsure of what timezone Edward Tse is in). What could a 16k ton be used for? Who do you think would make use of it?

LK 16,000T Die Casting Showcase | Edward Tse posted on the topic | LinkedIn

Seeing is Believing! ð Tomorrow, we're taking the wraps off the LK 16,000T Die Casting Machine, and you won't believe your eyes! Witness the future ofâ¦

www.linkedin.com

 

[Huskyf]

How about adding speed cameras, like every other GPS out there on the planet?

Because soon like Europe in 2024 your car is not permitted to go upper speed limit the car need to follow speed limit sign by vision or GPS by slowing or increase force of accelerator pedal of the driver it's mandatory for all new vehicle ....How you need a speed cameras map after that ????

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Because soon like Europe in 2024 your car is not permitted to go upper speed limit the car need to follow speed limit sign by vision or GPS by slowing or increase force of accelerator pedal of the driver it's mandatory for all new vehicle ....How you need a speed cameras map after that ????

This is only partialy true. From July 2024 all new cars sold in Europe must have a built-in anti-speeding system. The system does not limit the speed but can give visual, acoustic and haptic warnings when speeding. There is however no law yet about it being mandatory to activate the system.

More information can be found on the site of the European Commission.

 

[Huskyf]

This is only partialy true. From July 2024 all new cars sold in Europe must have a built-in anti-speeding system. The system does not limit the speed but can give visual, acoustic and haptic warnings when speeding. There is however no law yet about it being mandatory to activate the system.

More information can be found on the site of the European Commission.

1. Speed control function
   The other possible feedback relies on the pedal restoring force - it will push the driver’s foot gently back to make the driver aware and help to slow down. The driver can ignore this feedback and override the system by pushing slightly harder on the acceleration pedal. Even in the case of speed control function, where the car speed will be automatically gently reduced, the system can be smoothly overridden by the driver by pressing the accelerator pedal a little bit deeper.