Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Usain]

What you describe is Darwin award worthy (see bold above)

Not really. It's the same as for Tesla. Once the comma.ai software is proven to be 10x safer than a human, it makes sense to let you take a nap.

And the fact that you would be using hacked software does not make it less safe. The hacked version would only remove the eye tracking. The rest of the code is the same, "proven safe" software.

 

[GrandEnigma]

Yep. Just got a 2023 M3 AWD LR last month, no tax.

They don't charge tax on solar panel systems, either.

While I have solar and Powerwalls, the ROI is not quite there due to our electric rates being so low relative to many other states. Currently paying .09c kWh. My system is averaging about 80% of our daily usage, but more importantly to me, my EVs are 100% fusion powered

 

[RHJP]

Yeah, NJ has an awesome EV/ICE feedback loop where ICE vehicles are effectively subsidizing EVs between the no sales tax (new and used) and incentives up to $4,000 (tiered based on MSRP of up to $45k and up to $55k), meanwhile in places like TN my parents got a tax bill for their Tesla at time of registration renewal as some highway tax since they are not contributing to the gas tax.

M3 RWD

View attachment 987276

Very interesting that Tennessee has a highway tax for EV's.

Here's probably a good reason why:

From Google: How many automotive plants are in Tennessee?
Tennessee's automotive manufacturing cluster includes four major assembly plants and automotive operations in 88 of 95 counties. Nissan's North American headquarters is in Franklin, and its plant in Smyrna is regularly the most productive in North America. There's also the Volkswagen Assembly Plant in Chattanooga and Toyota Motor Manufacturing in Jackson Tennessee

And Tennessee is apparently the MASTERS OF AUTOMOTIVE MANUFACTURING. here is the link:

https://tnecd.com/industries/automotive/#:~:text=Tennessee's%20automotive%20manufacturing%20cluster%20includes,most%20productive%20in%20North%20America.

 

[GrandEnigma]

Very interesting that Tennessee has a highway tax for EV's.

Here's probably a good reason why:

From Google: How many automotive plants are in Tennessee?
Tennessee's automotive manufacturing cluster includes four major assembly plants and automotive operations in 88 of 95 counties. Nissan's North American headquarters is in Franklin, and its plant in Smyrna is regularly the most productive in North America. There's also the Volkswagen Assembly Plant in Chattanooga and Toyota Motor Manufacturing in Jackson Tennessee

And Tennessee is apparently the MASTERS OF AUTOMOTIVE MANUFACTURING. here is the link:

https://tnecd.com/industries/automotive/#:~:text=Tennessee's%20automotive%20manufacturing%20cluster%20includes,most%20productive%20in%20North%20America.

Was also this possible pipe dream from 2021

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2021/09/27/ford-to-lead-americas-shift-to-electric-vehicles.html

 

[Tronguy]

Very interesting that Tennessee has a highway tax for EV's.

Here's probably a good reason why:

From Google: How many automotive plants are in Tennessee?
Tennessee's automotive manufacturing cluster includes four major assembly plants and automotive operations in 88 of 95 counties. Nissan's North American headquarters is in Franklin, and its plant in Smyrna is regularly the most productive in North America. There's also the Volkswagen Assembly Plant in Chattanooga and Toyota Motor Manufacturing in Jackson Tennessee

And Tennessee is apparently the MASTERS OF AUTOMOTIVE MANUFACTURING. here is the link:

https://tnecd.com/industries/automotive/#:~:text=Tennessee's%20automotive%20manufacturing%20cluster%20includes,most%20productive%20in%20North%20America.

There's been multiple runs at How To Fund All Those Roads When There's No Gas-Powered Vehicles Any more. Charging an average fee (possibly based upon weight) at once-a-year registration time is one of those ideas. There's also a pay-as-you-go mileage tax approach. The Eastern Coalition MBUF (Mileage Based User Fee) trials took a lot of data and surveys, but it means getting accurate vehicle miles to do it. I think Virginia has gone that route.

 

[30seconds]

I think it depends on your position. Most employees will get RSUs and can utilize the employee stock purchase program.

First purchase with ESPP is Sept 1.
15% discount to lowest closing price on Feb 26th or Sept 1st.
Feb 27th closing price $207
Sept 1st closing price $245
So in the latest round employees purchased at $207 ×.85= $175.95

Next purchase is March 1st.
Aug 31st closing price $258
If March is higher than $258 then employees will purchase at $258 ×.85= $219.30

I’m just saying if an employee can get, purely as an example, 40% more money in straight regular income from a union offer, they can buy stock themselves and the increase in regular pay could be worth more than the benefit of locking in a low price for the period and a 15% discount on that price — the former being a bit harder to quantify but there can also be perceived benefits to getting cold hard cash rather than stock options when it comes to immediate expenses etc.

Thats what I imagine the argument would be. Tesla has surely already been working on what numbers would be necessary to combat that sort of argument.

ESPP plans typically have limitations on how much can be purchased.

 

[SOULPEDL]

My wife just saw a driverless Waymo pull a U-turn at a traffic light up the street. I didn't know they could do that... new? Jealous!!!

 

[Opus BC fan]

Hopefully, this has some meaning for the TSLA share price...

 

[SOULPEDL]

Hopefully, this has some meaning for the TSLA share price...
View attachment 987299

Sold out in case anyone else was curious.
Jealous again!

 

[Drumheller]

As much meaning as Burnt Hair? I could spray some in here, if that helps.

 

[cab]

So, some recent posts here that mentioned the Chevy Bolt reminded me of a question I wanted to ask. So much of the "auto" future (ignoring FSD, robots, etc. for a moment) seems to be tied to the $25K EV. In general, the belief seems to be that folks will gobble them up at that price point, but....the Chevy Bolt EV is dang near already there at $27,500 (before rebates!). Now, I don't think GM is making any money on them (and is likely losing money at an unpleasant rate so maybe they don't push them too hard) and sure the fast-charging situation is pretty abysmal in 2023 for the Bolt (hopefully addressed with the partial Ultium changes to come next year), but I don't get the impression the general public is gobbling them up as fast as they can even at that price point. Sure a $25K Tesla will likely have more of the Tesla "it" factor, but it may not be that different (practically) than the Bolt (save for the future FSD possibility). Elon continues to push the "price" rules over all thesis, and while I know that is largely true...it still doesn't strike me as the whole story. I am, of course, hopeful, that the $25K Tesla will be viewed as "$25K!!!!...for a TESLA!!!??? Holy cow!!!!" by the general public, but TBD I suppose. Any concerns the $25K thesis may not play out quite as hoped?

 

[jerry33]

So, some recent posts here that mentioned the Chevy Bolt reminded me of a question I wanted to ask. So much of the "auto" future (ignoring FSD, robots, etc. for a moment) seems to be tied to the $25K EV. In general, the belief seems to be that folks will gobble them up at that price point, but....the Chevy Bolt EV is dang near already there at $27,500 (before rebates!). Now, I don't think GM is making any money on them (and is likely losing money at an unpleasant rate and sure the fast-charging situation is pretty abysmal in 2023 for the Bolt (hopefully addressed with the partial Ultium changes to come next year), but I don't get the impression the general public is gobbling them up as fast as they can even at that price point. Sure a $25K Tesla will likely have more of the Tesla "it" factor, but it may not be that different (practically) than the Bolt (save for the future FSD possibility). Elon continues to push the "price" rules over all thesis, and while I know that is largely true...it still doesn't strike me as the whole story. I am, of course, hopeful, that the $25K Tesla will be viewed as "$25K!!!!...for a TESLA!!!??? Holy cow!!!!" by the general public, but TBD I suppose. Any concerns the $25K thesis may not play out quite as hoped?

The $25K will make it more affordable for more folks. Also it won't be $25K when the subsidies are included. I don't believe the Bolt example is particularly relevant because the Bolt has been plagued with battery issues. (People who purchase $25K cars do so because they don't want to pay more, so they want something with a good reputation for being trouble free.) Also good luck in getting a Bolt (or any car for that matter) from a dealer without dealer add-ons.

 

[SOULPEDL]

So, some recent posts here that mentioned the Chevy Bolt reminded me of a question I wanted to ask. So much of the "auto" future (ignoring FSD, robots, etc. for a moment) seems to be tied to the $25K EV. In general, the belief seems to be that folks will gobble them up at that price point, but....the Chevy Bolt EV is dang near already there at $27,500 (before rebates!). Now, I don't think GM is making any money on them (and is likely losing money at an unpleasant rate so maybe they don't push them too hard) and sure the fast-charging situation is pretty abysmal in 2023 for the Bolt (hopefully addressed with the partial Ultium changes to come next year), but I don't get the impression the general public is gobbling them up as fast as they can even at that price point. Sure a $25K Tesla will likely have more of the Tesla "it" factor, but it may not be that different (practically) than the Bolt (save for the future FSD possibility). Elon continues to push the "price" rules over all thesis, and while I know that is largely true...it still doesn't strike me as the whole story. I am, of course, hopeful, that the $25K Tesla will be viewed as "$25K!!!!...for a TESLA!!!??? Holy cow!!!!" by the general public, but TBD I suppose. Any concerns the $25K thesis may not play out quite as hoped?

Interesting point. The price I'm finding online is more like $32.5K, but after the -7.5K this is a possible solution for some. But it's not far behind the Model 3 with 20 more miles range, $39K, and it's a Tesla (along with all that tasty software, efficiency, acceleration, safety, quality, fun-ness, etc...). The Bolt also involves a Dealership. So the drive-away price might be even be more than the 32k...

Spoiler: Sales are reflecting a growing interest in the Bolt.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

So, some recent posts here that mentioned the Chevy Bolt reminded me of a question I wanted to ask. So much of the "auto" future (ignoring FSD, robots, etc. for a moment) seems to be tied to the $25K EV. In general, the belief seems to be that folks will gobble them up at that price point, but....the Chevy Bolt EV is dang near already there at $27,500 (before rebates!). Now, I don't think GM is making any money on them (and is likely losing money at an unpleasant rate so maybe they don't push them too hard) and sure the fast-charging situation is pretty abysmal in 2023 for the Bolt (hopefully addressed with the partial Ultium changes to come next year), but I don't get the impression the general public is gobbling them up as fast as they can even at that price point. Sure a $25K Tesla will likely have more of the Tesla "it" factor, but it may not be that different (practically) than the Bolt (save for the future FSD possibility). Elon continues to push the "price" rules over all thesis, and while I know that is largely true...it still doesn't strike me as the whole story. I am, of course, hopeful, that the $25K Tesla will be viewed as "$25K!!!!...for a TESLA!!!??? Holy cow!!!!" by the general public, but TBD I suppose. Any concerns the $25K thesis may not play out quite as hoped?

I too have heard of many of these same question for the Chevy Bolt. Its near the magical "$25K" mark after incentives so why isn't GM selling more of them?

My feeling is the general public isn't dumb and have some desire to want a 'nice' car. The Bolt is a horrible looking midget car that only a mother will love. The proportions are bad and zero presence on the road. Yes I know beauty is in the eye of the beholder - NO only to a certain ugliness does that apply. The only thing it got going for it is the 'cheap' price of entry. And you get exactly that cheap ego box looking car. You still have to buy one from the stealership that wants to upsell you to a nice high margin Chevy Tahoe. If the general public isn't already sold on EVs then the salesman will for sure undersell the Bolt once you are there.

Now how about that elephant in the room that is Tesla or the Bolt that combust in your garage. Why would anyone want to buy a Bolt over a Tesla Model 3? How does one forgo OTA, SC, Dog mode?

After all this you are left with a very small total addressable market.

 

[Usain]

My wife just saw a driverless Waymo pull a U-turn at a traffic light up the street. I didn't know they could do that... new? Jealous!!!

Is she sure it was in driverless mode?

 

[Usain]

So, some recent posts here that mentioned the Chevy Bolt reminded me of a question I wanted to ask. So much of the "auto" future (ignoring FSD, robots, etc. for a moment) seems to be tied to the $25K EV. In general, the belief seems to be that folks will gobble them up at that price point, but....the Chevy Bolt EV is dang near already there at $27,500 (before rebates!). Now, I don't think GM is making any money on them (and is likely losing money at an unpleasant rate so maybe they don't push them too hard) and sure the fast-charging situation is pretty abysmal in 2023 for the Bolt (hopefully addressed with the partial Ultium changes to come next year), but I don't get the impression the general public is gobbling them up as fast as they can even at that price point. Sure a $25K Tesla will likely have more of the Tesla "it" factor, but it may not be that different (practically) than the Bolt (save for the future FSD possibility). Elon continues to push the "price" rules over all thesis, and while I know that is largely true...it still doesn't strike me as the whole story. I am, of course, hopeful, that the $25K Tesla will be viewed as "$25K!!!!...for a TESLA!!!??? Holy cow!!!!" by the general public, but TBD I suppose. Any concerns the $25K thesis may not play out quite as hoped?

I think next year when the $7500 rebate becomes point-of-sale then Bolts could be much more popular. Buyers at that price point are extremely sensitive to monthly payment.

But it looks like GM won't make that many Bolts next year because of the refresh. Even after the refresh they might hold back if they can't get costs down.

 

[insaneoctane]

Great news!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1720109469474882024

 

[EverettRuess]

There's been multiple runs at How To Fund All Those Roads When There's No Gas-Powered Vehicles Any more. Charging an average fee (possibly based upon weight) at once-a-year registration time is one of those ideas. There's also a pay-as-you-go mileage tax approach. The Eastern Coalition MBUF (Mileage Based User Fee) trials took a lot of data and surveys, but it means getting accurate vehicle miles to do it. I think Virginia has gone that route.

That is how Utah works. I pay a once a year fee.

 

[tmoz]

About to buy a MY LR in the phoenix area. there is very little inventory. I'm taking this as a positive sign. We will have to order one. 5 seater, White ext/ White Interior 19" wheels

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Great news!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1720109469474882024

Tell me you are sponsored by Ford without telling me you are sponsored by Ford....Cramer has officially reached Gordo status in my book.