Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

Thanks for the refresher. The battery day slide does suggest the next gen vehicle will use LFP.

With that vehicle likely to outsell all the other Tesla vehicles combined and the seeming unlimited demand for LFP megapacks, should not Tesla consider making their own LFPs or at least partnering with a LFP maker for US production? Especially if the IRA incentives remain intact following next year's election.

Considering the US battery projects the Legacy OEMs have recently put on hold, Tesla could have those projects ramped back up to provide them a beaucoup battery bonus with discounted domestic delivery once the IRA bucks being bandied about for batteries and packs have been applied.

Now, say that ten times quickly,

​

that ten times quickly​

that ten times quickly​

that ten times quickly​

that ten times quickly​

...​

 

[2daMoon]

More Tesla advertising...

EPA holds EV video competition to promote electric transportation

The United States Environmental Protection Agency launched an electric vehicle video challenge to promote electrified transportation.

www.teslarati.com

 

[JupiterMan]

even those who have amazing imaginations, who read Iain M Banks, Asimov and a lot more Science Fiction will still be amazed.

I've not read any Banks... any recommendation on which book to start relative to this conversation?

 

[Max Plaid]

I've not read any Banks... any recommendation on which book to start relative to this conversation?

Just go through the Culture series in the order they were written, I started with Consider Phlebas, picked it up by pure chance because I liked the cover art, it's a great introduction. A lot of folks consider Use of Weapons and Excession to be the best

Banks' imagination is vast, but his writing is very dark, perverse, gruesome, and most of the characters are psychopaths

1. Consider Phlebas (1987)
2. The Player of Games (1988)
3. Use of Weapons (1990)
4. The State of the Art (1991)
5. Excession (1996)
6. Inversions (1998)
7. Look to Windward (2000)
8. Matter (2008)
9. Surface Detail (2010)
10. The Hydrogen Sonata (2012)

The non-Culture books are great too: Surface Detail, The Algebraist, while Feersum Endjinn is a tough one and Transition received mixed reviews, although I enjoyed it

 

[AudubonB]

As much as I love and also highly recommend Banks’s works, we cannot let this continue here. So @Max Plaid has the last…okay, penultimate…word on the subject.
Thank you.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Hammer time:

View attachment 987239

@Artful Dodger (or anyone), I tried to match your indicators above but can never get it the same. Close? Always 20 days?
Upper BB hit, but are we also headed to the 200 day? Or is that next week?

This is probably OT (technical) so I'll tread lightly. Likely a basic question, but I've noticed the BB changes depending on the time frame chosen. So how can anyone say we hit an upper band - which one? Seems the shorter the time frame, the more it just follows the actual price.

Hopefully this is a simple answer. Up for grabs really, you probably all know this. Thanks!

 

[TN Mtn Man]

So, some recent posts here that mentioned the Chevy Bolt reminded me of a question I wanted to ask. So much of the "auto" future (ignoring FSD, robots, etc. for a moment) seems to be tied to the $25K EV. In general, the belief seems to be that folks will gobble them up at that price point, but....the Chevy Bolt EV is dang near already there at $27,500 (before rebates!). Now, I don't think GM is making any money on them (and is likely losing money at an unpleasant rate so maybe they don't push them too hard) and sure the fast-charging situation is pretty abysmal in 2023 for the Bolt (hopefully addressed with the partial Ultium changes to come next year), but I don't get the impression the general public is gobbling them up as fast as they can even at that price point. Sure a $25K Tesla will likely have more of the Tesla "it" factor, but it may not be that different (practically) than the Bolt (save for the future FSD possibility). Elon continues to push the "price" rules over all thesis, and while I know that is largely true...it still doesn't strike me as the whole story. I am, of course, hopeful, that the $25K Tesla will be viewed as "$25K!!!!...for a TESLA!!!??? Holy cow!!!!" by the general public, but TBD I suppose. Any concerns the $25K thesis may not play out quite as hoped?

$25k is still not a low price for a subcompact CUV, if you include ICE vehicles in the mix. The Bolt is saddled with pathetical slow DC fast charging capability, seriously hampering it's ability to ever complete a "road trip", at least in anything approaching a reasonable time. The same can be said of the Lightning, given the capacity of it's battery pack. It's almost like legacy auto makers deliberately build bad EVs to steer buyers away from EVs and sour them of the whole experience.

 

[Two-rocks]

It's almost like legacy auto makers deliberately build bad EVs to steer buyers away from EVs and sour them of the whole experience.

If you were legacy auto, had an MBA, you would certainly do exactly that.
This is why legacy must die, and fast.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

If you were legacy auto, had an MBA, you would certainly do exactly that.
This is why legacy must die, and fast.

I'm reminded of the old saying that goes something like: Never attribute to malice what can be attributed to incompetence.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1720351103240269914

 

[SOULPEDL]

If you were legacy auto, had an MBA, you would certainly do exactly that.
This is why legacy must die, and fast.

This crossed my mind on Autopilot (Cruise for example). Hoping to create Fear and Frustration (FnF) with the newcomers. And they succeeded when booted out of the city for all the mishaps.

 

[Zero CO2]

If you were legacy auto, had an MBA, you would certainly do exactly that.
This is why legacy must die, and fast.

This has been OEM strategy on EV for years ... but something happened on the way to the forum ... Tesla, BYD, etc...
the strategy is past its useful life ... innovators dilemma has a firm grip and OEM strategic responses are following the dilemma to the T ... they will be left high priced trucks and SUVs that very few consumers will want .. then they will die ..... maybe some brands will be saved by EV players .. but i am not sure that makes any sense

 

[Artful Dodger]

About two(ish) years ago, using Exxon’s own information of how much grid electricity is used to refine a barrel of oil, I figured 30% of all the electricity generated in Texas is used to refine oil and posted all of my math, with the USEIA and Exxon data used for same, on this thread.

IIRC, it was @mongo who originally found and posted the obscure Exxon data.

Some collected links:

Electricity used to refine 1 gal of gasoline:​

• [PDF] Updated Estimation of Energy Efficiencies of US Petroleum Refineries | publications.anl.gov › anlpubs › 2011/01
• So: Exactly How Much Electricity Does it Take To Produce A Gallon of Gasoline? | LinkedIn > Paul Martin > 2017/07/27
• The definitive 'how many kWh does it take to make a gallon of petrol' thread. | Speak EV - Electric Car Forums > 2018/02/18

TL;dr it takes 6 KWh of energy to refine a gal of gasoline (some in the form of process heat from combustion of part of the input hydrocarbon stream). But there's also a portion which is the electricity used to operated the pumps, compressors, instrumentation, and controls at the refinery.

Cheers!

 

[insaneoctane]

Right on cue, the SP is hammered down to be kept around 220. You can set your watch by these forces...

 

[Two-rocks]

Added 330 more today, cash was having FOMO MOFO.

 

[unk45]

As much as I love and also highly recommend Banks’s works, we cannot let this continue here. So @Max Plaid has the last…okay, penultimate…word on the subject.
Thank you.

Apropos of post-penultimate commentary, a proposal for Mod-ular consideration,
1. Given the direct relevance of Douglas Adams (e.g. Milliways, the new Tesla restaurant), Mel Brooks (e.g. Plaid), as well as the two mentioned here...
2. Given the credit given to sundry writers of Science Fiction and Fantasy for inspiration of Mr. Musk and numerous other technologically oriented entrepreneurs:
Might we have a thread dedicated to sources of inspiration, specifically for Tesla, SpaceX and other Musk companies?
Might it not be out of place to consider also the dystopian, even including the prototypical George Orwell 1984, or even Stanley Kubrick and A Clockwork Orange?

These subjects are certainly off-topic in the main thread, even though in many respects it is these writers who have successfully inspired innovation. We could even offer a Susan Calvin award for a seriously successful Optimus when it happens.

The AI thread is informative but considers mostly technology rather than implications of technology.

Is it not time for us to evaluate such issues? For the record I think this 'origin story' sort of question has plagued Elon strongly since the OpenAI challenges. He makes these TSLA issues, whether causing positive or negative impact. Most likely a mixture, not unlike Hari Seldon and Susan Calvin.

Note: I just reread this post and observe I'm a trifle Asimov-centric in comments. So be it. Only he and Douglas Adams are hard-wired for me, given my advanced age, perhaps because I feel like Ford Prefect from time to time. (True: my first newish car was a Ford Cortina GT with Lotus aspirations. At the time I often Hitchhiked.)

Mod edit: Asimov-centric or not, that is a terrific idea. So let it be done.

 

[Drumheller]

Right on cue, the SP is hammered down to be kept around 220. You can set your watch by these forces...

This highlights a thought I've had for over a year now. It seems clear to me that the market makers control TSLA and can close it wherever they like. They can issue virtual shares at will and have unlimited shorting ability. So what reason is there to think this will ever not be the case and TSLA will approach a value that some of us belive represents actual fair value? I haven't lost confidence in Tesla but I have lost confidence in the claim that stocks eventually reach "fair value".

This is the thought that leads me to question whether there is a point I may sell and move on, which of course helps those that are shorting, but what's the point in holding if the stock price can be set to anywhere those institutions desire?

 

[insaneoctane]

This highlights a thought I've had for over a year now. It seems clear to me that the market makers control TSLA and can close it wherever they like. They can issue virtual shares at will and have unlimited shorting ability. So what reason is there to think this will ever not be the case and TSLA will approach a value that some of us belive represents actual fair value? I haven't lost confidence in Tesla but I have lost confidence in the claim that stocks eventually reach "fair value".

This is the thought that leads me to question whether there is a point I may sell and move on, which of course helps those that are shorting, but what's the point in holding if the stock price can be set to anywhere those institutions desire?

I think that the manipulation has limits dictated by the macro. We're in a volatile time with pandemics, wars, inflation, and forced monetary tightening. This macro environment has significantly impacted TSLA's margins and EPS and allows manipulators many narratives to conceal their ~legal corrupt actions. The manipulation can be harder during a bull market. I'm truly tired of the high manipulations with TSLA too, but I don't personally see a better low risk long term investment...

 

[SOULPEDL]

This highlights a thought I've had for over a year now. It seems clear to me that the market makers control TSLA and can close it wherever they like. They can issue virtual shares at will and have unlimited shorting ability. So what reason is there to think this will ever not be the case and TSLA will approach a value that some of us believe represents actual fair value? I haven't lost confidence in Tesla but I have lost confidence in the claim that stocks eventually reach "fair value".

This is the thought that leads me to question whether there is a point I may sell and move on, which of course helps those that are shorting, but what's the point in holding if the stock price can be set to anywhere those institutions desire?

We hear ya. But where would you invest instead?

To me, any other investment would be supporting a lesser cause, but please share if you have a better option. Like you, my expectations for a pop are pretty low, hence why I resort to some side trades on these cycles. This is working for me so far, but YMMV. Beyond Meat might be a good cause, I've actually made out these past few days there, but could lose it all based on Nov 11th earnings. TSLA has such low risk for me, but we'd need another Robinhood light-up event that may never occur again.

To your point, IMO even if FSD driverless use cases begin, followed by a new revenue stream, media would be posting all the freaked out stories of robots taking over, and every single close call would be in the headlines... guaranteed. So I expect the returns on FSD to come years after it's obvious (to us only). I'm almost there, just need to know that FSD isn't capable of inventing false truths like ChatGPT.

However, Tesla Energy would be less of a challenge socially to push up the stock. Maybe just project Tesla Energy (growth/margins) into the future, and then decide if it's worth it. Slow but steady, big carrots out there somewhere.

Hang in there!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

This highlights a thought I've had for over a year now. It seems clear to me that the market makers control TSLA and can close it wherever they like. They can issue virtual shares at will and have unlimited shorting ability. So what reason is there to think this will ever not be the case and TSLA will approach a value that some of us belive represents actual fair value? I haven't lost confidence in Tesla but I have lost confidence in the claim that stocks eventually reach "fair value".

This is the thought that leads me to question whether there is a point I may sell and move on, which of course helps those that are shorting, but what's the point in holding if the stock price can be set to anywhere those institutions desire?

It can only be held down for so long as we witnessed $TSLA's incredible run up after years of languishing with little or no movement. It is only natural for anyone to feel like this, however, $TSLA can only be held down for so long, the next run up will be just as epic, if not even more epic than the last one. Be patient and we will all be rewarded with more multiples!

Of course, this is NFA, because YMMV and i do not know your investment timeline