if Elon stepped away from the CEO role and into Chief Executive Architect (or whatever), would the drama be meaningfully reduced? Does anyone genuinely think it would meaningfully affect stock price?
Let History be your guide: read how
Henry Ford maneuvered to take his company back from shareholders in 1919. Reminder, Ford Motor (F) never became a publicly traded company until 1956. Here's an article from 2018 that drew some parallels to Henry Ford's gambit:
Idea to take automaker private echoes the passion of Henry Ford.
www.autoblog.com
Now today's situation isn't exactly comparible, ie: Elon no longer intends to take Tesla private ('
we've crossed that bridge'), but what we do have in the next 5 years is Elon's looming 2018 CEO comp. plan payout. Elon has over 300M shares of TSLA vested now via stock options. When and how he chooses to execute them will have a major affect on shareholders.
If he simply executes them, sells enough to cover the cost of the options and pay all the relevant payroll taxes, that's something like $100B that will be extracted from TSLA. Shortzes will pile in (again, like they did when Elon executed his much smaller 2012 CEO Comp. plan back in Nov 2021).
There is another option: Elon could pay cash for his taxes from Starlink IPO proceeds, including executing the shares at about $23/share (h/t
@mongo). In this scenario, shortzes get Bupkis.
Do I think this is the likely scenario? Honestly, Elon could go either way, and I don't think he's
decided yet. Pro and Cons, if he sells, that could lead to the SP dumping, and Elon would be able to execute most of his shares over a relatively short period with minimal taxes. I think he sees this as a 'pro' given his history.
Or, he could execute enough to initiate a stampede to the exits (shortzes assisted), then pay cash for all his remaining stock options at a very attractive price. This assumes he wants to spend Starlink derived funds on Tesla. I think they are both his babies, so he's likely to balance their needs. Pro: this approach likely keeps more shares in his hands vs. needing to sell half to cover payroll taxes.
But there's also an emotional element which should not be overlooked that will affect Elon's decision regarding his 2018 Stock Options: People (especially in the Media) love to treat him like dirt,
especially when he tries to help (OUTRAGE!). It would only be human for him to be
less empathetic towards those who attack him, when it comes to enriching those people via his future choices.
But thats just me talking. Elon has time-and-again shown that he is a person of great empathy and love for humanity. He may yet choose to spare those who attack him unfairly, although I would understand completely if he did not. I think at the end of the day, the Mission will come first, and other things will be made to work around what's best for accelerating the switch to sustainable energy, making humanity multiplantary, and extending the light of conciousness to the stars.
We should get a good idea how that's going on Saturday at 07:00 CST.
Regards,
Lodger
www.theguardian.com
electrek.co
