Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SmokyPeat]

The stock may be underperforming the NASDAQ today, but I'm quite relieved that there hasn't been a significant slump. Looks like we weathered the storm.

 

[tslagreen]

You can't make this stuff up. Nearly spit up my coffee because I laughed so hard!

Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois said:

Canceling Cybertruck Would Be A 'Positive' For Tesla Stock, Analyst Says​

Canceling Cybertruck Would Be A 'Positive' For Tesla Stock, Analyst Says

Cybertruck deliveries are set to begin on Nov. 30, but one analyst wrote Monday it might be better for Tesla stock if the new vehicle was canceled.

finance.yahoo.com

Not listening to Philippe would be a positive for his clients (if he has any).

 

[cliff harris]

You can't make this stuff up. Nearly spit up my coffee because I laughed so hard!

Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois said:

Canceling Cybertruck Would Be A 'Positive' For Tesla Stock, Analyst Says​

Canceling Cybertruck Would Be A 'Positive' For Tesla Stock, Analyst Says

Cybertruck deliveries are set to begin on Nov. 30, but one analyst wrote Monday it might be better for Tesla stock if the new vehicle was canceled.

finance.yahoo.com

The interweb is awash with people who have super negative views about the cybertruck. It is indeed a very polarizing design, much like the ford Ka was, and also TBH the iphone, and the ipad.
When a very succesful company with a very good track record launches a polarizing product, there is HUGE opportunity to profit from the situation. Humans are all still apes, and very emotional, and there will be a LOT of stock traders and analysts who personally hate the look of the CT, so cannot possibly imagine other people liking it.
This is magnified by the internet and social media. Surround yourself with people who think JUST like you, and you will be incapable of understanding other people's decisions. IMHO this phenomena occured with Trump and Brexit. People who hated those things never spoke to people who liked them, so an information-gap appeared.

We are all very lucky to have this forum, where we can cut through the clickbaity assumptions that EVERYONE hates the CT. TBH All I need, as investor is for 500,000 people on the planet to love the CT, and it will be a massive success. If the other 6,499,500,000 all hate it, it simply does not matter. It does mean those people miss out on a stock price jump though .
HODL.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Reading an editorial in this morning’s Globe and Mail brought my attention to a proposal, being made by a candidate running for an elected (American) office at some future time:



Can a subject matter expert provide an opinion on the legitimacy of the actions proposed on private university endowments?

If a case for legal legitimacy can be made for the proposed actions, as a (foreign) share holder in a publicly traded American company (Tesla), should I worry about my shares (or their value) somehow being taken from me.

Government can set taxes however it wants, and there's no broader implication.

A significant reason that these private colleges are a target of some politicians are that they are _non-profits_ but have have very high tuition fees. I don't think it's the endowments themselves that are the issue.

The three major private universities in Maine had the following endowment values at the end of 2022:
Bates College end 2021-2022 FY: $419 million (down from $466 million)
Bowdoin College: end 2022-2023 FY: $2.4 billion
Colby College: end 2022 FY: $1,115,645,000 down 11%
Small fry, though.

Harvard's endowment was $50.9 billion at the end of FY 2022.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

You can't make this stuff up. Nearly spit up my coffee because I laughed so hard!

Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois said:

Canceling Cybertruck Would Be A 'Positive' For Tesla Stock, Analyst Says​

Canceling Cybertruck Would Be A 'Positive' For Tesla Stock, Analyst Says

Cybertruck deliveries are set to begin on Nov. 30, but one analyst wrote Monday it might be better for Tesla stock if the new vehicle was canceled.

finance.yahoo.com

Fascinating they would choose to publish this today 11/20 when CT deliveries are 10 days away. You would think they had some ulterior motive or something

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Guess this would qualify as advertising?

 

[Knightshade]

Government can set taxes however it wants, and there's no broader implication.

FWIW there ARE a few specific rules on how they can set taxes in the constitution but you're getting super far afield of the topic here

I thought the payload capacity is 3,500 lbs.

You're forgetting passengers.

2500 bed payload plus 1000 lbs for 5 passengers gets you to 3500.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Guess this would qualify as advertising?
View attachment 992334

Is it actually a Tesla Ad though?

 

[Webeevdrivers]

FWIW there ARE a few specific rules on how they can set taxes in the constitution but you're getting super far afield of the topic here




You're forgetting passengers.

2500 bed payload plus 1000 lbs for 5 passengers gets you to 3500.

I don’t think that’s how it works. It’s GVWR minus curb weight.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

And still no range specs. Weird.

 

[Knightshade]

I don’t think that’s how it works. It’s GVWR minus curb weight.

What you describe is payload capacity (GVWR minus curb weight.) since GVWR is curb weight plus total capacity.


What Tesla has listed at 2500 is BED capacity. Passengers generally ride in seats, not the bed. But have weight and also contribute to GVWR math in addition to what the bed can hold.


Now it's possible Tesla IS listing total capacity but for some reason slapped the figure onto the back half of a sentence specifically about the bed- but that'd be a pretty weird way to express it.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Is it actually a Tesla Ad though?

It's displayed outside a Tesla store so good chance it is actually a Tesla Ad.

 

[Electroman]

And still no range specs. Weird.

Yes that is weird. Hoping that won't be a downer when it is revealed in 10 days

 

[Electroman]

It's displayed outside a Tesla store so good chance it is actually a Tesla Ad.

I saw an electronic billboard with Tesla Ad yesterday on the side of freeway. It lasted a few seconds before rotating to a different product Ad. Will take a picture next time.

 

[Mengy]

And still no range specs. Weird.

The lack of any range specs whatsoever has worried me a bit. Tesla is either going for a huge positive surprise or they are trying to delay some kind of backlash. We'll finally know the release range spec in two weeks at least.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

Yes, let's just overlook the fact that 50% of those surveyed didn't offer an opinion either way about Tesla. Wouldn't this factor significantly reduce the actual impact of the unfavorable upon the total number surveyed? Should we ignore this two to one ratio of the majority when compared to either of the favorable or unfavorable choices?

Perhaps you may also be overlooking that uptick in the most recent, far right-hand part of the chart where favorable has overtaken unfavorable.

Lastly, the chart shows a pattern of change that has become narrower between the two, not greater. Is this trend not our friend?

But, please, cherry pick the data to best suit your narrative. Everybody else does.

For some unfathomable reason many people have unquestioned faith in the accuracy and methodology of brand ratings, and even more when viewing metrics such as 'intention to buy'. Along with the vaunted 'unaided recall' core metric these all have several major problems.
-first, selection bias. During the last two decades every polling category from political voting intentions to favorability ratings and intentions has suffered large declines in correlation to actual observed behavior. More and more people decline to respond to surveys and those who do are increasingly likely to represent outliers.
-second, survey design flaws. As more surveys are conducted by people who have no background or qualifications in survey design and control, sampling errors grow even more than they already have due to selection bias because there is so little effort to design surveys to limit the errors.

Favorability ratings are immensely popular for the same reasons that political polls are so popular. Quoting some poll always is tittilating. Often they really have minimal value.

In our present TMC investor dilemmas many of us are compelled to evaluate personal behavior of a given CEO because if we listen to neighbors and ask if they've changed their view due to an obnoxious post somewhere, surprise!, they've often say they have done that. Such events are the third bane of survey research, Confirmation Bias. Here on TMC the purveyors of confirmation bias often become banished to ply their rumors elsewhere.

I decided to post this three part description because we are at great risk in this thread of losing sight of actual facts. In the present day ephemeral 24 hour news cycle we seek stimulation continuously. After the 24 hour continuous steaming news was invited by Ted Turner the world has devolved towards continuous exacerbation of controversy. We have, in this thread, fallen victim to that habit. Otherwise intelligent people are preoccupied with the latest tweet, even those that have a half-life of a few minutes.

If we are to be useful to each other we need to work hard to 'sort the wheat from the chaff'. We need to learn what data is real, what is imaginary and what is real but irrelevant. Gratuitous political commentary, personal revulsion or admiration of a given CEO is really not very helpful.

Actual business decisions and actual facts are always helpful. Actual buyer and driver performance is also relevant, as is everything financially demonstrated.

History is plentifully supplied with highly accomplished people who were deeply flawed. After all, as people become more and more successful their flaws become more visible. In my own life I have been lucky enough to meet and deal with a large number of highly accomplished people. I have tried to recall one such person who displayed conventionally conforming behavior. I cannot find one. We all here are involved deeply with one such individual.

Please stop trying to find relevance in odd behavior that is not directly tied to performance of our investments in TSLA. Please stop quoting ill-designed surveys, polls and anecdotes all of which exacerbate perceived risks.

We have many real risks, real opportunities and factual issues. Those are hard work to find, understand and explain. For me personally, I benefit enormously when someone corrects me when I make a factual error. Several people regularly do that; I owe them a debt of gratitude because that helps me learn. I hope we can enhance the exchange of solid information exchange, from which we can learn. That is why I've been here since 2014.

Hey guys, I didn't post that chart. Nor did I respond to it directly. Maybe the results mean nothing, but I'm just pointing out that rationalizing the results of that chart to be "good" for Tesla is absurd.

 

[Tenable]

They will check IDs

I was not hoping to go in their stead, but as their +1.

 

[wipster]

The

The strip is a DRL, the lower inset above the bumper is the headlights.

View attachment 992281

Man, that matte black looks wicked!!!

 

[GOVA]

And still no range specs. Weird.

Franky, I am getting sick of range bullsugar. No ICE shows its range because of many reasons.

Now, range is affected by everything and they should just stop. If they say 300 units, Gordo will complain he got 294, etc.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Franky, I am getting sick of range bullsugar. No ICE shows its range because of many reasons.

Now, range is affected by everything and they should just stop. If they say 300 units, Gordo will complain he got 294, etc.

Sure. But it’s a reference. For example. A new model Y in Canada has less range (EPA) than our almost 2 year old model Y. And I know this because they actually give an EPA number. Numbers like this help people in the decision process of buying a car. Nothing wrong with listing range numbers in my opinion.