Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Christine69420]

Now that Elon is fully aware, perhaps he’ll be flying to Sweden at some point and talking to someone higher up the food chain.

The Swedish Prime Minister came from IF Metall - the union currently making all the noise.

 

[winfield100]

This is a terrible video lol

People need to learn how to read a 13F before putting out misinformation.

@DarkandStormy
seriously, how is the video misinformation?

https://fintel.io/so/us/tsla/sessa-capital-im

they seem to be _temporarily_ realizing the value of the puts, that could go in _either_ direction, and with luck will be their financial petard

6/30/2022
Sessa worth $1.8 Billion with $336 Million in TSLA Puts 18.4% of their net worth (500,000 shares)
(actually $1.5 Billion when back out puts)

3/30/2023
worth $2.6 Billion with $172 Million TSLA Puts, 6,5% net worth (830,000 shares)(post 3:1 split)
(actually $2.46 Billion back out puts

6/30/2023
worth $ 7.1 Billion, with $5.049 Billion TSLA Puts 71.5% of their net worth, (19,290,100 shares)!!
(actually worth $2 Billion after back out putz, a decrease of $450 Million net worth )

9/30/2023
worth $3.75 Billion with $1.5 Billion TSLA Puts 39.1% of their net worth
(actually worth $2.283 Billion after back out puts so only down ~$200 million from 3/30.2023)


THEY Still have 5,858,000 puts hanging over their heads, that, if I understand correctly, this needs to be dealt with prior to expiry
(and what % of shares are "virtual" or hypothecated and re-hypothecated)

the video was a very nice to me, example of why there were a few massive FTD's when houses went down the oubliette getting their fingers burnt

i more than welcome an explanation of my errors as I am but a beginner

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Yeah. I always thought Teslas would be similar to airplanes. Every so often, the electronics and interior would be refreshed.

What can go wrong with that. Fisker (FSR) has outsourced all their manufacturing of their only current model, Ocean, also to Magna Steyr. Fisker's stock price is trending down 92% from their ATH.

Going to Magna worked out really well for the Jaguar iPACE

 

[Baumisch]

As there is a lot of Videos (and aricles) posted on here - just a heads-up that bard.google.com can now summarize youtube videos quite well (and articles of course too) - i.e. for the Shorts Video - and the best part, it's free I just hope it doesn't hallucinate too much white at it

 

[Mengy]

This is a terrible video lol

People need to learn how to read a 13F before putting out misinformation.

I just watched it and I thought it was very informative. Why do you feel it's a terrible video?

 

[Artful Dodger]

So to celebrate the CT launch, instead of just announcing a GREAT price for CT, why not also announce an UNHEARD-OF Extended Warranty, too?

Imma call it right now: if Tesla announces a MILLION-MILE Powertrain Warranty for Cybertruck on Thursday, TSLA moons on Friday.

If Tesla wants to really spike the ball, they could also announce warranty extensions for S3XY cars... but that'd be crazy, amirite? So maybe just for deliveries by Dec 31?

Of course, the Holy Grail would be retroactive warrantee extentions...

ADS aren't FREE! Neither are new customers! Warrantee FOMO!

Cheers to the Newbees!

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Tesla Model Y Is Sweden’s Best-Selling Car in September & 2023

Tesla Model Y sales rose 607% in Sweden in September, making it the country's best-selling car. Overall sales data shows that the electric compact crossover has become the best-selling vehicle in the country for the first nine months of 2023.

www.tesmanian.com

More than 10% of all new cars sold in Sweden in September were Model Ys. Model 3 was also in the top 10 best sellers.

Seems like new car buyers might care.

Tesla will probably sell around 20k cars here in 2023. That is 0,2 percent of the population. Even if you double or triple that in the new year or two that would be maybe 1 percent. That number of cars would be easily covered by other manufacturers. I hear they have a surplus.

 

[Mengy]

Imma call it right now: if Tesla announces a MILLION-MILE Powertrain Warranty for Cybertruck on Thursday, TSLA moons on Friday.

If Tesla wants to really spike the ball, they could also announce warranty extensions for S3XY cars... but that'd be crazy, amirite? So maybe just for deliveries by Dec 31?

Of course, the Holy Grail would be retroactive warrantee extentions...

ADS aren't FREE! Neither are new customers! Warrantee FOMO!

Cheers to the Newbees!

I'm expecting to be underwhelmed on Thursday by the reveal.

I only say this because normally I am underwhelmed by Tesla events with regards to them presenting new info or supplying surprising new stuff. We are all very informed and up to date here at TMC, these events are usually more oriented towards people who don't know a lot about Tesla or their products. I do think we'll get pricing and range because honestly they have to reveal these specs in order for people to begin buying CT's, but I'm not expecting much more than that and some marketing presentations about stuff we already know here.

I'd love to be incorrect though and have them surprise us with crazy positive new warranties or some other megaton bombshells!

 

[mongo]

Imma call it right now: if Tesla announces a MILLION-MILE Powertrain Warranty for Cybertruck on Thursday, TSLA moons on Friday.

If Tesla wants to really spike the ball, they could also announce warranty extensions for S3XY cars... but that'd be crazy, amirite? So maybe just for deliveries by Dec 31?

Of course, the Holy Grail would be retroactive warrantee extentions...

ADS aren't FREE! Neither are new customers! Warrantee FOMO!

Cheers to the Newbees!

In which case kiss gross margins goodbye since the auditor estimated warranty reserves for this brand new vehicle's one million mile warranty are added to cost of automotive sales...

Cost of automotive sales revenue includes direct and indirect materials, labor costs, manufacturing overhead, including depreciation costs of tooling and machinery, shipping and logistic costs, vehicle connectivity costs, allocations of electricity and infrastructure costs related to our Supercharger network and reserves for estimated warranty expenses. Cost of automotive sales revenues also includes adjustments to warranty expense and charges to write down the carrying value of our inventory when it exceeds its estimated net realizable value and to provide for obsolete and on-hand inventory in excess of forecasted demand.

Automotive Warranty Reserve
As described in Note 2 to the consolidated financial statements, total accrued warranty, which primarily relates to the automotive segment, was $2,101 million as of December 31, 2021. The Company provides a manufacturer’s warranty on all new and used Tesla vehicles. A warranty reserve is accrued for these products sold, which includes management’s best estimate of the projected costs to repair or replace items under warranty, including recalls if identified. These estimates are based on actual claims incurred to date and an estimate of the nature, frequency and costs of future claims.
The principal considerations for our determination that performing procedures relating to the automotive warranty reserve is a critical audit matter are the significant judgment by management in determining the automotive warranty reserve; this in turn led to significant auditor judgment, subjectivity, and effort in performing procedures to evaluate the estimate of the nature, frequency and costs of future claims, and the audit effort involved the use of professionals with specialized skill and knowledge. Addressing the matter involved performing procedures and evaluating audit evidence in connection with forming our overall opinion on the consolidated financial statements. These procedures included testing the effectiveness of controls relating to management’s estimate of the automotive warranty reserve, including controls over management’s estimate of the nature, frequency and costs of future claims as well as the completeness and accuracy of actual claims incurred to date. These procedures also included, among others, testing management’s process for determining the automotive warranty reserve. This included evaluating the appropriateness of the model applied and the reasonableness of significant assumptions related to the nature and frequency of future claims and the related costs to repair or replace items under warranty. Evaluating the assumptions related to the nature and frequency of future claims and the related costs to repair or replace items under warranty involved evaluating whether the assumptions used were reasonable considering current and past performance, including a lookback analysis comparing prior period forecasted claims to actual claims incurred. These procedures also included developing an independent estimate of a portion of the automotive warranty reserve and comparing the independent estimate to management’s estimate to evaluate the reasonableness of the estimate, and testing the completeness and accuracy of historical vehicle claims processed and that such claims were appropriately used by management in the estimation of future claims. Professionals with specialized skill and knowledge were used to assist in developing an independent estimate of a portion of the automotive warranty reserve and in evaluating the appropriateness of certain aspects of management’s model for estimating the nature and frequency of future claims. /s/ PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP

 

[lascavarian]

How about lifetime free touch up paint service on the CT.

Probably a lower impact on the margins.

 

[Artful Dodger]

In which case kiss gross margins goodbye since the auditor estimated warranty reserves for this brand new vehicle's one million mile warranty are added to cost of automotive sales

Of course the warranty would be the result of an estimate of its cost. The point being that Tesla may now be able to justify a Million Mile Warranty with DATA. Tesla has consistently been over-estimating warranty costs and holding excessive amounts in warranty reserves.

The reality with Cybertruck may be that the powertrain (and rust-proof body) are likely to far surpass 1M miles. For example, if they use Dr. Jeff Dahn's latest NMC 6-2-2 chemistry, the battery pack might be good for 10K cycles and 3M miles.

Cheers!

 

[DarkandStormy]

@DarkandStormy
seriously, how is the video misinformation?

https://fintel.io/so/us/tsla/sessa-capital-im

they seem to be _temporarily_ realizing the value of the puts, that could go in _either_ direction, and with luck will be their financial petard

6/30/2022
Sessa worth $1.8 Billion with $336 Million in TSLA Puts 18.4% of their net worth (500,000 shares)
(actually $1.5 Billion when back out puts)

3/30/2023
worth $2.6 Billion with $172 Million TSLA Puts, 6,5% net worth (830,000 shares)(post 3:1 split)
(actually $2.46 Billion back out puts

6/30/2023
worth $ 7.1 Billion, with $5.049 Billion TSLA Puts 71.5% of their net worth, (19,290,100 shares)!!
(actually worth $2 Billion after back out putz, a decrease of $450 Million net worth )

9/30/2023
worth $3.75 Billion with $1.5 Billion TSLA Puts 39.1% of their net worth
(actually worth $2.283 Billion after back out puts so only down ~$200 million from 3/30.2023)


THEY Still have 5,858,000 puts hanging over their heads, that, if I understand correctly, this needs to be dealt with prior to expiry
(and what % of shares are "virtual" or hypothecated and re-hypothecated)

the video was a very nice to me, example of why there were a few massive FTD's when houses went down the oubliette getting their fingers burnt

i more than welcome an explanation of my errors as I am but a beginner

I just watched it and I thought it was very informative. Why do you feel it's a terrible video?

The whole point of buying options is so they don't get squeezed.

Quoting options shares notional as the value of the position is incorrect. Especially with OTM options, the value of the position is the premium.

It does not appear Alexandra knows how to calculate a put premium.

Tesla has one of the lowest SI in the market (by cacluating as a % and not total $ value, as apparently Alexandra is). It's actually near historic lows for Tesla at the moment. Of course, it's harder to drive clicks if you report that.

Put options are not the only way to short a stock. So I don't know why there was a fascination with holders of put options?

I'm not saying the data presented is incorrect, but certainly there is missing context and reason. I'm also not really sure what a retail investor is supposed to do with the information? Some people are short the stock. That's true of every company. It's not illegal. You could make a video the other way - all those with the largest call positions. What's the point?

 

[Unpilot]

The whole point of buying options is so they don't get squeezed.

Quoting options shares notional as the value of the position is incorrect. Especially with OTM options, the value of the position is the premium.

It does not appear Alexandra knows how to calculate a put premium.

Tesla has one of the lowest SI in the market (by cacluating as a % and not total $ value, as apparently Alexandra is). It's actually near historic lows for Tesla at the moment. Of course, it's harder to drive clicks if you report that.

Put options are not the only way to short a stock. So I don't know why there was a fascination with holders of put options?

I'm not saying the data presented is incorrect, but certainly there is missing context and reason. I'm also not really sure what a retail investor is supposed to do with the information? Some people are short the stock. That's true of every company. It's not illegal. You could make a video the other way - all those with the largest call positions. What's the point?

The point is one position is hoping for the SP to fall. One is hoping the SP will rise.

When large amounts are involved, the incentive to "help" the SP move in your desired direction can and do get creative.

 

[mongo]

Of course the warranty would be the result of an estimate of its cost. The point being that Tesla may now be able to justify a Million Mile Warranty with DATA. Tesla has consistently been over-estimating warranty costs and holding excessive amounts in warranty reserves.

The reality with Cybertruck may be that the powertrain (and rust-proof body) are likely to far surpass 1M miles. For example, if they use Dr. Jeff Dahn's latest NMC 6-2-2 chemistry, the battery pack might be good for 10K cycles and 3M miles.

Cheers!

Unless they have a bad coolant seal, umbrella vent, or some other pliable sub $10 part that doesn't show as flawed until 3+ years into production and ruins the pack/ drive unit...
Tesla has a warranty reserve, but also has a large in-warranty fleet and isn't slowing down on increasing the reserve.
YoY increase in provision:
2021: 69%
2022: 60%

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Imma call it right now: if Tesla announces a MILLION-MILE Powertrain Warranty for Cybertruck on Thursday, TSLA moons on Friday.

If Tesla wants to really spike the ball, they could also announce warranty extensions for S3XY cars... but that'd be crazy, amirite? So maybe just for deliveries by Dec 31?

Of course, the Holy Grail would be retroactive warrantee extentions...

ADS aren't FREE! Neither are new customers! Warrantee FOMO!

Cheers to the Newbees!

Anticipate Elon's moves by considering what will most effectively advance the mission. A million mile warranty would lead to a lot of enthusiasm and confidence in Tesla cars but only advance the mission only by improving margins. Tesla is already selling cars as fast as they can make them so, this move would only enable them to increase the sale price.

On the other hand, such a move would certainly drive the share price up significantly. Elon doesn't want to lose valuable talent to retirement which he sees as hurting the mission. At this point in the life cycle of Tesla, I think Elon will choose talent over public perception and this idea, if even on the table, will not happen.

 

[Christine69420]

The Swedish Prime Minister came from IF Metall - the union currently making all the noise.

I'm sorry but this is not correct. The Swedes have a new Prime Minister since then. The new one is a liberal conservative and probably more aligned with Tesla than IF Metall. I'm not sure how much real power he would have in this situation though.

I shouldn't have stopped reading Swedish newspapers.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla has a warranty reserve, but also has a large in-warranty fleet and isn't slowing down on increasing the reserve.

True. Tesla currently offers a new purchase incentive of 6 mths free supercharging. I wonder how many buyers would be interested in a Million Mile warranty? Probably fleet buyers would perk up, and retail monthly lease types not so much.

Still, there's got to be some marketing in here some place, as the vehicles can clearly do this now. Even as you say, some $10 part could ruin the cake instead of eating it.

Cheers!

 

[cliff harris]

Personal anecdote: I learned something new about the EV transition last night, despite driving a Tesla for 8 years now.
Driving home from London at 9PM-11PM, We stopped twice trying to get a coffee, at petrol/diesel service stations... Both were shut. Closed. No coffee(nooo!) but also no petrol/diesel.We needed a tiny charge, so stopped at a 24 stall tesla supercharger, and charged at 780mph. This was about 10.45pm.

This is what I never REALLY internalized:

Superchargers are ALWAYS OPEN. Like 4am would have been fine, any time would have been fine. But petrol stations are only open when the amount of traffic justifies the employment of a human to operate a till.
MADNESS.
And obviously it will get worse as people transition to EVs. Right now the traffic closes those petrol stations at maybe 9PM. How long until its 7PM? How long until they are only open during rush hour?

I've been trying to talk people into EVs for 8 years, and this difference has passed me by until last night. For people who roadtrip a lot, or do long or unusual hours, its an even stronger point.

HODL. Anyone selling before friday is mad.

 

[hitchhiker]

Why would they do a warranty publicity stunt on the cybertruck? They don't need to increase sales on it yet -- they've got an order backlog of a couple of years. Save that sort of sales booster for when the order book gets to less than a year (and when they have real-world data on thousands of vehicles to back it up)

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

Anyone else getting a starship torch this week? Seems like an odd time for the delivery of them to be planned? I never got short shorts to burn and have no marshmallows
Also, Is star link coming standard on CTs? Seems it would be nice to have on something like this, I must have missed discussion of that? I think this will be an unexpected ‘reveal’ with lots of goodies and a price bump to SP. can dream anyway