Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Max Plaid]

Disagree. CAN stands for Controller Area Network and has its own standards. (Used to program PLC's that communicate with frequency controllers & I/O using CANbus)

CAN bus - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Actually stands for both, and also Campus Area Network...

I had always thought CAN referred to CAN bus, which is a standardized automotive communications network that accessories plug into (and which people use with analyzers). I have never heard of anything called a Car Area Network. In fact if you search for “car area network” on Google, you will be pointed to articles talking about CAN bus. Which, by the way, is an acronym for Controller Area Network.

CAN bus - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Yeah, I think I'm a bit behind the times on this from when I had training back in 2000

 

[dhanson865]

I wonder how they are doing trailer lights with the 48 volt system. Do they have a DC to DC converter for the trailer plug?

Does the truck have a built in brake controller?

In the Top Gear video you see a screen with variable settings for the trailer brakes.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

In the Top Gear video you see a screen with variable settings for the trailer brakes.

View attachment 996050

Nice

 

[Skryll]

Garage door contractor came over for a fix, mentioned cybertruck, was astonished its $80k instead of 'several 100k'. Is now seriously considering as he plans to replace his truck next year. Told him to get refundable reservation right away for a chance 2024

 

[2daMoon]

Garage door contractor came over for a fix, mentioned cybertruck, was astonished its $80k instead of 'several 100k'. Is now seriously considering as he plans to replace his truck next year. Told him to get refundable reservation right away for a chance 2028

FTFY

 

[Electroman]

 

[SO16]

View attachment 996099

Yes this was lame. Does this change my opinion of the vehicle? Not even a little. To have bulletproof glass, it would need to be much thicker and wouldn’t roll down.

 

[Captkerosene]

A pleasant surprise over the last week: Rather than feeling that the CT was somewhat homely, I now think that the CT is actually quite refined and dare I say even sophisticated. Looking at other pickup trucks, I realize that they only look OK because my eyes have become accustomed to them - kind of like an aged mother-in-law.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

So is Cybertruck really a good free advertisement for Tesla? Let's check out the numbers.

As of Sunday afternoon, here is the viewership of the 3 early Cybertruck review videos:
Top Gear: 2,000,000 views
Hagerty: 2,800,000 views
Marques Brownlee: 9,700,000 views

How much would GM or Ford have to pay for such exposure? And Tesla paid nothing. I'll also add that these are not 30 second TV spots that people tune out. These are 40 minute videos that people actually sit and watch.

While your point is correct, comparing to others paying for 30 second ads, this doesn't mean most viewers are watching the full length (40 minutes or whatever) of online videos.

You only need 30 seconds to get a view counted. Pretty much everyone else, Ticktok, Instagram, the one I can't name, Facebook etc ONLY NEED 3 SECONDS to count as a view. Many scrollers don't even have enough time to skip the video in 3 seconds. So their statistics are even more inflated than youtube.

On youtube it´s considered pretty good if you still have 50% watching halfway through. The longer the videos, the harder to get viewers to stay.

Not trying to be mean to these specific channels. They are all probably above average youtube watchtimes.

But anytime you see social media "views" take them with a grain of salt.

 

[The Accountant]

Have they already delivered to non-employees?
I see sandy has one but he could be a contractor somehow?

I think the thing many are looking at is whether or not the COGs for cybertruck get added to balance sheet in Q4 vs Q1. Was reading here I believe a note by @The Accountant that if the deliveries in TX and CA in December are at all to non-employees that it would trigger the COGs to be added for the R&D Q4 vs sometime in Q1.
I’m curious if employee deliveries payments and units sold are counted to the bottom line?
Where are we at with all of that and how might it effect EPS?

I have not discussed this topic (I believe it was Troy) but I will share my thoughts hoping it will add some value.

I believe the Cybertruck (CT) launch will not have a significant drag on the financials. Tesla may call out the negative impact in the earnings release but it should not be material. Here is why:
- All CT costs to this date have been charged to R&D costs as pre-production costs. So we have been incurring much of these costs already in prior qtrs.
- Once CT moves to production, costs get capitalized to Inventory and only charged to Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) when the truck is sold.
- Tesla has to capitalize the cost of the CT to inventory at the 'Lower of Cost or Market'. That means if it cost $100k to build a truck but sales price is $80k, then the inventory item is set at $80k and Tesla charges the remaining $20k immediately to COGS.
- Once they sell the car, they record $80k in sales and $80k to COGS for 0% margin.
- We will see cost move from R&D to COGS in Q4 but I do not expect the impact of CT deliveries to be more than a $0.02 drag on eps and likely less.

I could be incorrect as I do not know what the running costs are currently on CT but I would be surprised to see anything more than the $0.02.

 

[EQC_]

That was the off road tyres. He did not criticise the truck as that was obvious.

I would also imagine that most of YOUR OWN tire noise gets into the passenger compartment via the wheel wells and vibrating through the body structure. That can be dampened or otherwise reduced in various ways, but I would imagine that acoustic glass won't make *much* difference (but some difference is reasonably possible).

On the other hand...I would imagine that acoustic glass would be great for eliminating the intrusion of OTHER CARS' tire noise, and other sounds not coming from your own vehicle.

 

[Gigapress]

The tonneau cover has to be a big contributor to the good numbers as it prevents air over the roof from backfilling into eddies in the low pressure truck bed area. But the tonneau cover is still ribbed, so will induce some turbulent airflow over it.

My guess is that the ribbing on the tonneau cover is actually reducing total aero drag. For an electric car or pickup truck, pressure drag is usually 80-90% of total drag, because vehicles are shaped like blunt objects and don’t have a teardrop taper on the aft end. Although inducing some turbulence on the downslope does increase skin friction drag, it probably reduces pressure drag even more by keeping the boundary layer attached to the surface longer. It’s hard to say for sure though, and CFD simulations people have published on the internet showed that the truck’s gentle slope angle wasn’t going to have much problem with flow separation at highway speeds.

This is the same reason why golf balls have dimples and why many airplane wings have vortex generators. The turbulence disrupts the boundary layer which makes it stick better as the surface slopes away from the airflow. Airflow separation (like an airplane wing that’s starting to stall at too steep of an angle of attack) results in a low-pressure wake zone and vortices.

The Cybertruck vs R1T aero comparison also needs to account for the huge difference in the wheels. CT comes with 35-inch tires, while the R1T has options for 20, 21 or 22 inches. CT’s wheel choice substantially sacrifices aerodynamic efficiency to improve off-road performance and aesthetics (most people prefer the look of big wheels, especially on a truck or SUV).

 

[mongo]

The Cybertruck vs R1T aero comparison also needs to account for the huge difference in the wheels. CT comes with 35-inch tires, while the R1T has options for 20, 21 or 22 inches. CT’s wheel choice substantially sacrifices aerodynamic efficiency to improve off-road performance and aesthetics (most people prefer the look of big wheels, especially on a truck or SUV).

I think you're conflating rim size with tire diameter.
R1T: 275/65R20 tires, 275/55R21 tires and 275/50R22
34.1, 32.9, 32.8

Cybertruck: 285/65R20: 34.6"

 

[EQC_]

Sorry I forgot who posted suggestion: With tonneau rolled up (as in open) it may take 4-6" of bed length, tucked in by Cabin rear window

I am pretty sure the tonneau slides down inside a hidden gap between the passenger compartment and the bed...and probably ends up partially under the forward section of the bed, and partially vertical within that gap, below the rear window.

I have never seen any indication that it is visible (or taking up space) in the bed when stowed.

 

[EQC_]

I was thinking the same until I watched Joe T's video:

There was a clip showing bulkhead between cab and bed where he highlighted a couple of 6x6" vents, with no exact explanation (will the Cabin be able to control air/temperature in bed?), and postulated fixed window.

I have seen vents like that on sedans, when the rear bumper cover is removed...they are usually under the bumper cover, just behind the rear wheels. I believe they are to relieve/equalize pressure so that, for example, your ears don't pop when you close the doors. And probably as an air outlet so that the AC can run in a non-recirculating mode.

Those vents in the Cybertruck, being of similar size, similarly hidden, and having similar flappy "blinds" for lack of a better word, are probably the same.

 

[Gigapress]

As an investor I really don't see that stainless was worth the added manufacturing weight, cost and ramp issues. It isn't clear to me of how much is gained by having the exterior shell provide crash impact vs. larger body with more traditional stamped steel / aluminum.

It’s not just crash safety though. The stainless has the durability and corrosion resistance benefits, and no paint shop.

Putting the strength in the skin makes the structure more rigid, holding mass constant. Cybertruck is structurally designed like a boat, airplane or rocket, all of which use stressed-skin designs primarily in order to save weight. As a result, Cybertruck can haul more than similarly sized and configured trucks with similar mass, despite the penalty from carrying a heavy battery and from stainless steel having worse specific strength than aluminum or high-strength steel. Body on frame trucks have inefficient structural design, especially for resisting torsional loads. Cybertruck’s stiff structure combined with the air suspension should make for much better handling performance both on and off road. I think stainless steel is the only decent material for an exoskeleton structure for this application, because aluminum and regular steel need (easily damageable) paint for corrosion protection and they suffer surface damage more easily that can gradually develop over time into more serious structural weak points.

The stainless also makes it attract attention which is, in itself, marketing at zero additional cost.

Based on the 3 mm thickness and approximate surface area, I estimate Cybertruck has roughly 250 kg of stainless steel in the exoskeleton. This should cost approximately $1k for the material, and the delta between that cost and equivalent conventional materials is less, since those aren’t free themselves. The material cost itself is not very much. It remains to be seen how total net cost will balance out.

Stainless steel exterior is the cornerstone of this whole design.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Edit: Tried to search for this post. But Google did not show me anything X. And on X I could not search for images with in a time period.

Pro Tip: Try searching your browser history.

 

[Artful Dodger]

As of Sunday afternoon, here is the viewership of the 3 early Cybertruck review videos: [2.0 M, 2.8M, 9.7M ]

Lol, when I heard Elon say there would be a 'beast mode' version of the CT, my mind immediately went to a Marshawn Lynch demo in Oakland. Then I heard "The Rock" tell Joe Rogan he'd never even heard of the Cybertruck, and I was transported reluctantly back to Earth. But even at late as Sunday morning, I was still hoping we'd get a Mr. Beast Youtube video at least...

 

[Artful Dodger]

The ones that want color can add a wrap. I am sure there is a lot Tesla can do to lower the cost of wraps with precutting and body design that makes it easy to apply.

Plus, you can wrap your CT in bacon.

10 bux says this happens!

Cheers!

 

[Surfer of Life]

Garage door contractor came over for a fix, mentioned cybertruck, was astonished its $80k instead of 'several 100k'. Is now seriously considering as he plans to replace his truck next year. Told him to get refundable reservation right away for a chance 2024

Next year??!?? What happened to all the reservations ahead of him?