Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Well, line capacity != line production. If they can't make use of the cells, they'll just idle the line. Not to mention that the cell line needs perfect supply chain inputs of its own and as a new cell manufacturer, Tesla may very well go through teething issues just on that.

My estimate is literally based on what they've already done (did you read the Jun to Oct part?). The don't need to improve anything, but it's extremely likely that they will.

And can't the cells also be used in Model Y?

Tesla removed the Made-in-Texas Model Y from the website about a month ago. Right now the only batteries available in Model Y are 2170s from Giga Nevada or LFP from CATL.

Tesla is clearly all-in on Cybertruck production. The battery supply is the bottle neck. Of course other issues may arise in the supply chain, but you don't plan your production volume assuming that will occur, or it will (because you under-ordered parts).

Brian White of My Tesla Weekend channel says he has a inside source at a supplier who claimed 89K volume planned for 2024. I highly doubt Tesla is ordering specific volomes of parts 14 mths in advance. 4 months sure, that's a firm order, and take-or-pay applies to lock it in. But if Tesla decides to double their orders and give their suppliers 6 mths notice, they'd better be ready to ramp up fast (or get rolled over by their competitors).

Tesla doesn't single-source parts anymore. They'll even bring parts production in house if they need to. They literally have the designs and CAD files for everything they buy, and can make it themselves if needed.

The only exception is the 4680 cell. There are no 3rd-party suppliers ready to deliver cells yet. Cells must come from Giga Texas, that makes it the bottleneck. Everything else will be noise, and will be handled. That said, Tesla has already done huge work in de-risking the 4680 ramp, from development at Fremont to interations at Austin, and now with a very conservative v2 cell design in production on Line 1. The line itself maybe in the sixth or seventh revision as Tesla learned by doing smaller production runs, then pausing to retool.

It's most likely that it now all works, and the ramp goes as planned. What Morgan Stanley doesn't know is the plan. Again:

I estimate 80K - 120K CTs produced in 2024.​

#predict

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Did you watch the interview the interview with Lars about the 9mm test? He literally said it was a lower mv than a std 9mm

Ot but it is the weekend. Muzzle velocity is +/- 10-50 feet per second affected by a suppressor which is negligible. The penetration power has more to do with the type of ammunition used (ie. Low grain full metal jacket practice ammo that's subsonic vs +p armor piercing supersonic rounds). Experience from vehicle interdiction and ammo testing with a large city special weapons team.

Anecdotally several of us are patiently waiting in line for our personal reservations of cybertrucks.

 

[Buckminster]

What is the most important up and coming product for Tesla? A pitch for each:

• Cybertruck
  • Investment complete and the only sizeable TAM increase in the next 2 years
• Highland
  • Looks sell
• Juniper
  • What could be more important than a refresh of the world's number 1
• Optimus
  • Production ramp was due to start last month!
• M2
  • Launch event in 2024?
• Robotaxi
  • Elon didn't even want the M2
• Van
  • Could leverage CT tech and launch in 2024 ahead of gen 3? Huge TAM.
• Roadster
  • Will it fly?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Ot but it is the weekend. Muzzle velocity is +/- 10-50 feet per second affected by a suppressor which is negligible. The penetration power has more to do with the type of ammunition used (ie. Low grain full metal jacket practice ammo that's subsonic vs +p armor piercing supersonic rounds). Experience from vehicle interdiction and ammo testing with a large city special weapons team.

Anecdotally several of us are patiently waiting in line for our personal reservations of cybertrucks.

Yes that's right. Pretty much exactly what Lars said here:

Top Gear | Interview w. Lars Moravi + Franz von Holtzhausen | Bulletproofing

"We can stop pretty much any handgun, and you know anything that is subsonic. But you know, if you get armored-piercing rounds, or if you have a bullet that's going faster than the speed of sound, that energy is going to hit it you know with velocity squared, and in that tiny area it's gonna go through. So yeah you can definately empty a whole clip from a tommy gun, 9 mm subsonic, but I wouldn't go around uh you know claiming that its fully bullet uh proof."​

Cheers!

 

[jamaatta]

What is the most important up and coming product for Tesla? A pitch for each:

• Cybertruck
  • Investment complete and the only sizeable TAM increase in the next 2 years
• Highland
  • Looks sell
• Juniper
  • What could be more important than a refresh of the world's number 1
• Optimus
  • Production ramp was due to start last month!
• M2
  • Launch event in 2024?
• Robotaxi
  • Elon didn't even want the M2
• Van
  • Could leverage CT tech and launch in 2024 ahead of gen 3? Huge TAM.
• Roadster
  • Will it fly?

More Megapack factories..?

 

[samn]

What is the most important up and coming product for Tesla? A pitch for each:

• Cybertruck
  • Investment complete and the only sizeable TAM increase in the next 2 years
• Highland
  • Looks sell
• Juniper
  • What could be more important than a refresh of the world's number 1
• Optimus
  • Production ramp was due to start last month!
• M2
  • Launch event in 2024?
• Robotaxi
  • Elon didn't even want the M2
• Van
  • Could leverage CT tech and launch in 2024 ahead of gen 3? Huge TAM.
• Roadster
  • Will it fly?

M2 and eventually robotaxi (and FSD) will probably be the most important in my view in the next 5 years or so. M2 can become huge even if robotaxi continues to take longer to come to fruition. That will likely be key to continuing massive growth to reach 2030 goals and beyond.

I hope Tesla Energy will also be massive although it wasn't on this list, and that outcome is harder for me to predict/imagine.

Cybertruck and the others on the list are critical to developing the tech and platforms for the future. I love the Cybertruck for many reasons. Not only is it beautiful and bold in an incredible futuristic sense, it is an astounding example of continued evolution in vehicle design/manufacturing tech (48V, steer/brake by wire, Ethernet, 4680 dry cell platform, etc). It's important for those reasons and for others such as brand and reach. Cybertruck will be a new halo car that regular folks will actually buy, and it's the new proving ground for platform tech innovations. These steps forward are what will enable "the future should look like the future".

Tesla really leaped ahead with Cybertruck. I hope it will lead to more "Cyber" products, but whether it does or not I think M2 (world car platform), FSD (Robotaxi), and Optimus look like they could be the pillars (with AI as an underlying foundation) of a massive global company that Tesla can become over the next 10 years.

 

[Sunlight]

What is the most important up and coming product for Tesla? A pitch for each:

• Cybertruck
  • Investment complete and the only sizeable TAM increase in the next 2 years
• Highland
  • Looks sell
• Juniper
  • What could be more important than a refresh of the world's number 1
• Optimus
  • Production ramp was due to start last month!
• M2
  • Launch event in 2024?
• Robotaxi
  • Elon didn't even want the M2
• Van
  • Could leverage CT tech and launch in 2024 ahead of gen 3? Huge TAM.
• Roadster
  • Will it fly?

I think the Highland upgrade was great but a bit 'disappointing' technically.

I feel the Cybertruck is a technical tour--de-force

I just hope that the Juniper upgrade for the MY has brake and steer by wire; 48/800v; 4WS(?); Highland looks (or better/changed); better perceived quality
That should assure its future for quite a few years.....Another Highland type upgrade now would be disappointing

Cybertruck is the new Tesla North Star. Let's be realistic - the other Teslas are 'dated' now!

 

[WarpedOne]

800V is useless in a lowweight car like MY.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Folks should be aware the 'beast mode' tri-motor CT likely has detuned performance as of now (that is to say, max power is software-limited).

We can infer this based on Hagerty's drag strip testing, shown in their Dec 1st Youtube video. They said the tri-motor Cybertruck ran 2.6 sec 0-60 mph times all the way from 75% state-of-charge (SOC), down to 35% SOC.

Performance was consistent whether run on a sticky prepared drag strip, or on a regular paved surface road. Further, quarter-mile times also came in at a consistent 11.0 sec all the way from the highest down to the lowest SOC.

Even when nearly deplete, the 'beast' did a 11.2 sec qtr mile but still did 0-60 mph in 2.6 s (indicating the bty pack was finally becoming the limiting factor).

No matter how hard the testers abused the tri-motor CT, it never overheated or slowed in the slightest in spite of repeated floggings (take that, PORCH). CT is truly a 'beast', and this debut means there's still lots left where that came from (for OTA power upgrades). Looking forward to the ride!

SCHAWEET!

 

[Buckminster]

Cybertruck is the new Tesla North Star. Let's be realistic - the other Teslas are 'dated' now!

Only a small percentage of buyers will be put off by this or even know that MY and M3 are behind technically. I expect both to get a sizeable bump in orders partly due to CT and partly Highland.

 

[Christine69420]

I hear people say the Cybertruck will not matter much on the bottom line compared to the volume seller "Model 2". That does not sound right for me. Did some napkin math on the Cybertruck vs the Model 2. Please rip my logic apart:

Assuming CT sells 250k at 80k per car. Assuming high ASP since many will go for tents, FSD and other addons. Many CT buyers will be affluent. So 25% margin.

Assuming M2 sells 1 mill at 25k per car. Much less addons since many customers stretch to afford this car. So 10% margin. Then I get

CT: 250.000 * 80.000 * 0.25 = 5.000.000.000

M2: 1.000.000 * 25.000 * 0.1 = 2.500.000.000

For comparison: in 2022 Tesla had around 14B in net income.

Pro Tip: Try searching your browser history.

Only use the app on my phone for X

 

[jerry33]

Only a small percentage of buyers will be put off by this or even know that MY and M3 are behind technically. I expect both to get a sizeable bump in orders partly due to CT and partly Highland.

And even if they do know, they might want some other Tesla for various reasons (size, ease of entry, etc.)

 

[Artful Dodger]

I hear people say the Cybertruck will not matter much on the bottom line compared to the volume seller "Model 2".

CT will ship perhaps 0.5M units per year. At $80K each and 30% g.m. that's $12B gross profit, or about +$4/yr EPS. Not too shabby at all.

Now let's do Gen 3: 10.0M units/yr @ $25K and 20% g.m. That's $50B or about $16/share EPS. This is (already) 4x the CT business. Schaweet!

Now, let's do robotaxi: 1st Pass +1M unit each year over year, so 2M in year 2, 10M by yr 10, etc... $17K COGS, and 200% g.m. which is $36K/yr/unit for the lifetime which is perhaps 3-5 years? (lots of assumptions needed for this one, let us know what you got)

Cheers!

 

[Tony73]

My estimate is literally based on what they've already done (did you read the Jun to Oct part?). The don't need to improve anything, but it's extremely likely that they will.


Tesla removed the Made-in-Texas Model Y from the website about a month ago. Right now the only batteries available in Model Y are 2170s from Giga Nevada or LFP from CATL.

Tesla is clearly all-in on Cybertruck production. The battery supply is the bottle neck. Of course other issues may arise in the supply chain, but you don't plan your production volume assuming that will occur, or it will (because you under-ordered parts).

Brian White of My Tesla Weekend channel says he has a inside source at a supplier who claimed 89K volume planned for 2024. I highly doubt Tesla is ordering specific volomes of parts 14 mths in advance. 4 months sure, that's a firm order, and take-or-pay applies to lock it in. But if Tesla decides to double their orders and give their suppliers 6 mths notice, they'd better be ready to ramp up fast (or get rolled over by their competitors).

Tesla doesn't single-source parts anymore. They'll even bring parts production in house if they need to. They literally have the designs and CAD files for everything they buy, and can make it themselves if needed.

The only exception is the 4680 cell. There are no 3rd-party suppliers ready to deliver cells yet. Cells must come from Giga Texas, that makes it the bottleneck. Everything else will be noise, and will be handled. That said, Tesla has already done huge work in de-risking the 4680 ramp, from development at Fremont to interations at Austin, and now with a very conservative v2 cell design in production on Line 1. The line itself maybe in the sixth or seventh revision as Tesla learned by doing smaller production runs, then pausing to retool.

It's most likely that it now all works, and the ramp goes as planned. What Morgan Stanley doesn't know is the plan. Again:

I estimate 80K - 120K CTs produced in 2024.​

#predict

You think 150K CTs built in 2024??? Based on what?

I would say we should all be very concerned if Tesla does not exit q4 2024 with at least a 125k rate. That would mean something
has gone very wrong.

 

[jkirkwood001]

When calculating Cyber reservations - how many do you think were made from other regions? Regions that will likely never ship.

The reservation system was open in UK initially - many people placed deposits -did this happen in other countries? How many do we think can be subtracted from the total?

6% are from outside NA, although to be strict, the Canadian website still doesn't have CT pricing, so "only" 87% in scope from USA.

Tesla Reservation Tracker - Geographical Distribution

The Reservation Tracker has collected statistics on over 44000 Cybertruck reservations. We have used those statistics, along with adjustment assumptions, to estimate total outstanding Cybertruck reservations. We then scale our data to arrive at an estimate of total reservations per Region. Our

sites.google.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

I sincerely hope that Joe Tegtmayer posts a picture on X today of the Outbound Logistics lot at Giga Texas absolutely choked with 60+ Cybertrucks...

Cheers to the Dizzying Heights of Hope!

 

[Usain]

I sincerely hope that Joe Tegtmayer posts a picture on X today of the Outbound Logistics lot at Giga Texas absolutely choked with 60+ Cybertrucks...

Cheers to the Dizzying Heights of Hope!

Yeah, I've never been that interested in Joe's videos before, but now it's must-see-TV.

Hey Joe, where you goin' with that drone of yours?
Hey Joe, where you goin' with that drone in your hand?

I'm goin' out to shoot some new footage.
Gotta make sure the Cybertruck ramp goes according to plan.

 

[Sunlight]

And even if they do know, they might want some other Tesla for various reasons (size, ease of entry, etc.)

I’m not concerned about the ‘ignorant’ public, I’m looking at ease of manufacture, cost of materials, efficiency and so on…….

I’m a shareholder after all!

 

[madodel]

Now that the cat is out of the bag, where does TSLA go today and by the end of the year? Will the media keep churning out the "Too expensive, too ugly" nonsense?

 

[Opus BC fan]

Now that the cat is out of the bag, where does TSLA go today and by the end of the year? Will the media keep churning out the "Too expensive, too ugly" nonsense?

SOSDD until it isn't...I think there is far too much upside to ignore much longer (for those paying attention)