Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TN Mtn Man]

Speaking of Cory, any word on Lucid according to Cory? Doing simple math, unit sales come to an ASP of $94,600. Maybe they have revenue from other sources, IDK.

Lucid reported Q3 revenue of $137.8 million on deliveries of 1,457 vehicles and produced 1,550 vehicles. The company is also adjusting its production outlook for 2023 to 8,000 – 8,500 vehicles to prudently align with deliveries. (Nov 7, 2023)​

I follow him on X, nothing new, only 2 posts all of November and nothing informative.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Future press release: Tesla announced partnership with Earl Scheib

My uncle grew up in Youngstown, OH and has some funny stories about getting $60 Earl Scheib paint jobs in the early 70's. Apparently there were 2 shops in town and one had all women painters. He preferred that one because the women would actually mask off the trim, windows, wheels, etc. before spraying down the vehicle.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Just watched the trailer. Movie is about a mysterious blackout/cyberattack of some sort. There's a scene of I guess the cyberattack took control of the Teslas and were used as ramming/suicide cars without a driver against the protagonist.

The Film Director first tried the scene using Volkswagen ID.5s and then Ford F150 Lightnings, but the test audience fell asleep both times. The test audience only perked up to watch Teslas.

 

[The Accountant]

And another day without a peep from any new owner getting a Cybertruck. Have deliveries really started or is that it until next year? And one seen any car carriers loaded with cyber trucks. Factory drone footage? Weird.

Joe Tegtmeyer reported seeing several trailers with 5 CT each departing GigaTexas.
It's possible these CTs are going to delivery centers as a marketing attraction tool.

 

[ggr]

Just watched the trailer. Movie is about a mysterious blackout/cyberattack of some sort. There's a scene of I guess the cyberattack took control of the Teslas and were used as ramming/suicide cars without a driver against the protagonist.

Ramming in reverse? Reverse is software speed limited, would be much more effective going forward. /S

 

[Singuy]

Ramming in reverse? Reverse is software speed limited, would be much more effective going forward. /S

No the cars were ramming going forward. In the screenshot posted by Fred, the protagonist saw all the broken Teslas, realizes something and then screamed for everyone to get back into the car. Next scene we have working Teslas trying to run into her car at extremely high speed.

 

[GOVA]

Silver MY at Giga Texas???

Looks like it to me. Brad Sloan's video:

 

[2daMoon]

Silver MY at Giga Texas???

Looks like it to me. Brad Sloan's video:

View attachment 996846

Maybe they just used the same paint they use on the Cybertruck.

 

[larmor]

The Film Director first tried the scene using Volkswagen ID.5s and then Ford F150 Lightnings, but the test audience fell asleep both times. The test audience only perked up to watch Teslas.

They used Teslas because no one would believe that Volkswagen or Ford cars could be updated by OTA…

 

[Cobbler]

This is a warning from Elon:
Tsunami of hurt coming to shortsellers, edition 2024!!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tsunami of hurt coming to shortsellers, edition 2024!!

Tesla Inc TSLA:NASDAQ​

RT Quote | Last NASDAQ LS, VOL From CTA | USD
After Hours: Last | 4:26 AM EST
241.10 +2.38 (+1.00%)

'Watch ye, therefore, since you know not when the Master cometh."​

-- The Book of Eli (Alcatraz Edition)​

 

[JupiterMan]

Silver MY at Giga Texas???

They had a midnight cherry red and silver one from Berlin on display at investor day earlier in the year.

It could be that one.

 

[Sunlight]

GA3 at Giga Texas has no paint shop. Gen 3 will not have conventional autopaint (Tom Zhu, Mar 3, 2023: "Paint is expensive"). Optional body colors will most likely be provided via a wrap, and most likely as an add-on, after-the-sale purchase.

We drive a 6 year old BWM i3. It has thermo-plastic body panels which clean up as new still.

Surely Tesla must have looked at this? I believe the primary problem with the i3 was the time and complication of the carbon-fibre and body panels

Any thoughts on this?

 

[MikeAtkinson]

We drive a 6 year old BWM i3. It has thermo-plastic body panels which clean up as new still.

Surely Tesla must have looked at this? I believe the primary problem with the i3 was the time and complication of the carbon-fibre and body panels

Any thoughts on this?

Emplace wiring harness, sensors, actuators, etc. within the mould, then inject the plastic. Snap fit the panels together and glue onto frame. This can all possibly be fully automated.

They may not do it that way.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Comparing to ICE truck is not fair because the battery mass makes a big difference. This is evidenced by the F-150 Lightning weighing about 35% more than the ICE equivalent.

Also, the weight efficiency of a stressed-skin design does not necessarily result in overall weight savings, because there are so many variables. It is an exercise in futility to estimate without more information. What it does for sure is free up mass budget for making design trades. Tesla included several CT design features that should save mass, but then added other features that add mass.

Here are some examples of trades Tesla engineers chose for CT that cost extra mass vs the Lightning and Rivian:

1) At the delivery event, it was revealed that the CT has more torsional rigidity than a McLaren P1. Traditional ladder-frame trucks are nowhere close to this. Combined with air suspension, this should majorly improve handling both on and off road, and especially while towing and hauling heavy loads.​

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2) Almost double the motor power (vs Lightning, but matches top-trim quadmotor Rivian)​

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3) Rated to tow, haul and pull substantially more​

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4) Rear-wheel steering and all the accompanying hardware​

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5) Sturdy (heavy) glass​

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6) Superior crash safety (I speculate)​

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7) 5 inches more bed length​

Tesla could have saved mass by reducing these key performance metrics. Instead, they apparently decided to design a tough, high-performing beast that comes in line with the competition on mass and length/width/height. Only a teardown and system analysis like Munro & Associates will do can give us a clear picture of how much the design overall was mass-efficient.


What numbers are you looking at?

Cybertruck is rated to tow 11000 lbs and haul 2500 lbs. It's not as good as the original plan, but still market-leading in its class.

Below are the specs for F-150 Lightning. Even the maxed-out trim for towing only does 10000 and the maxed trim for hauling is 2235, and you can't get both in the same truck.

View attachment 996678

The Rivian tows up to 11000, but hauls only 1764, despite weighing more than CT and being smaller.

Please don't confuse rating with capability. The sled pull showed the CT has the capacity to out pull a F350 that is rated at 22,000lbs.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Brembo's web site says it supports 48V already.
Looks like a cost up due to dual front pumps, dual control modules, and other parts.
Plus, it's 3rd party with its own software and wire harness requirements. Might be a pain to integrate into Tesla's ecosystem and stability control.

Direct input into Tier 1 integration is wot Tesla does best. This is the way.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

I think what the Cybertruck has shown us is that Tesla "cool" is less and less about adding cool things. It's about eliminating uncool (unnecessary) things. This is, of course, both cool and cost-effective (repeat after me: "the best part is no part at all")

• No door handles (keys are long gone)
• No steering column (stalks are long gone, drive-by-wire)
• No 12 V battery
• No spaghetti-wiring (Ethernet)
• No fixed rear axel
• No uncovered bed
• No testo-grill (clean slope with 1 wiper)
• (What'd I miss?)

We should have a poll about what they'll remove (to save costs) on the M2!

• No steering wheel (optional hide)
• No mirrors
• No pedals (optional hide)
• No "rear seat" (back-to-back for compact aerodynamics)
• ???

I would love the M2 to have a steering wheel that electronically appears from the dashboard after you activate the brake button and have automatically activated drive. Just when your driver profile activates now. So you can sit in the drivers seat and work/eat sandwiches while in neutral without the wheel in the way. Also being away while getting in and out would be great.

 

[unk45]

I think this would be a mistake. As myself and other european posters on here often mention, part of the appeal of a model 2 will be size. I would pay MORE for my model Y to be smaller. That makes it much more drivable in the UK. Large meaning premium is more of a North American thing.
Someone like me is happy to pay £71k for a Tesla, but would prefer a small one. Its leaving money on the table if they don't make a sporty, upmarket trim for the model 2.

Here we go again! From the original VW Golf to GTI, Fiat Uno to Turbo I.e., Ford Escort RS and even the amazing RS Cosworth we have dozens of ‘pocket rockets’. Then there were BMW 3-series and the M3, although those a. Bit too big to be ‘pocket rockets’.
There is a cost accounting consequence of all of these that is crucial to understanding TSLA P&L even though there is not any official disclosure for either TSLA or others of sub-model breakdowns.

The basic principle has been consistent for nearly all OEM’s. That is that the ‘base’ model, of small cars, normally is priced to have 100% marginal cost absorption plus some absorption of fixed costs, the percentage of fixed costs to be absorbed varies with specific models. Classic examples easily understood by nearly everyone are the BMW 3-series and Toyota Corolla.
BMW 330i German price: €44200. M3 sedan €73900. (Note: in some countries BMW 318 still sold, even cheaper but not precisely comparable)
Toyota Corolla is rather different, because it is produced in variants that are sold as luxury cars (eg Brazil) and as very base, Belgian price Suzuki Swift GLX CVT €15880 while the GR Corolla Morizo is roughly €70,000 ( limited edition), but the less exotic Core edition goes for about €50,000 typically equipped.
Without belaboring this point, TSLA has been moving gradually towards the Corolla-esque model by introducing Plaid, then adding brake, track and wheel-tire options. Clear thinking suggests that the plethora of Cybertruck options is setting the stage for future models to allow a large variety of options, with wraps sure to be very high margin examples.
As we think of the new not-to-be-called-model-2 is there any logical reason not to expect similar choices? I think logic dictates that we are just beginning.… Explicitly including Premium Connectivity, Supercharging and Infotainment choices.

By late 2024, in the worst case, all these things will be material contributions to margins, almost certainly aggregated to ‘services’ and/or other handy aggregation accounts.

 

[SO16]

Jason from the Hagerty CT review on CNBC for a few minutes. Still pretty positive.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The hits just keep on a'comin'...

Tesla Cybertruck v Lamborghini Urus: DRAG RACE | carwow (2 hrs ago)

Cheers!