Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

The dancing at the end looks near identical to how a human would dance. This has to be trained end to end Havana to South Beach.

FTFY.

Cheers!

 

[Max Plaid]

In slow-mo!

Notice how egg pressure sensing locked on once it had the the egg. Exacting pressure control! Was showing realtime data down to pixel less than 1 mm apart.

Finger movement looked so human! Chilling! Uneven fingers, just because.

This is on a much faster track than FSD IMO just because it is developed and tested in a controlled environment vs in the public. Huge difference.

My money is now on Optimus for serious growth. Guestimating Internal cost savings realized in 2024. That will beheld as the most significant ROI threshold ever recorded in all history. Soon!

That robot will someday cut my hair more consistently than any human. To think that it could learn that skill in say a month of data crunching… when it takes humans longer and they still leave holes or poke me.

The scary part is that it just needs one Optimus to learn how to cut hair, then the skill can propagate to the rest of the hive... same with any skill, one learns it, they all learn it...!!!

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Elon said he will treat Bezos fairly when delivering Kuyper to orbit. So by fair I hope he means a 10% hike in price per hit piece in the WaPo.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

IMO the reason Mexico was sidelined for Texas has more to do with Optimus being ready and not wanting to ship them out of the country.

Optimus is absolutely a national security concern if nvda H100s are.

What will be the point in manufacturing in Mexico post Optimus ?

 

[Artful Dodger]

I imagine the big story with model 2 is that it will be cast in two pieces and then joined by a structural battery, aka the Matchbox car dream. Wouldn't even need Optimus for most of that.

2 castings for Model 2 is the fallback approach if a single large casting from a 12,000T Gigapress turns out to be infeasible.

Tesla working on 'gigacasting' tech to mould underbody in one piece -report | Reuters (2023-09-27)

Matt Pocius also reported this week that LK Machinery (IDRA-press owner based in China) delivered the 1st such large press to NIO in China, who plans to use it to produce a minivan. If NIO can do it, well...

For Tesla, it's all about rapid prototyping the dies for the gigapress. If they can cut costs by 30x and increase turnaround rate from 6 mths per iteration to a few weeks, they can do the likely needed half-dozen iterations of the prototype die. ie: if Tesla can build and test 1 prototype die per month, they could have a working Gen 3 die in Q1 2024.

Recall back in Nov 2023, Ron Baron told his investors it would take 12-18 months until the start of Tesla Model 2 production.

That's big. Like multi-trillion dollar big, at scale.

 

[-=buzz=-]

Camera Crew walking the running production line at Giga Berlin:

Might provide some interesting insights.

 

[UkNorthampton]

What will be the point in manufacturing in Mexico post Optimus ?

Trade deals (Mexico has more/better)
Avoiding various risks in other countries
Still have other humans working in factories and supply chain
Human pay lower on other services/costs eg transport etc

 

[Artful Dodger]

The boxed production line the Model 2 will use seems designed specifically for ease of Optimus access (and/or ease of human access) to the sub assemblies. Optimus bots will almost certainly be on the Model 2 line shortly after production begins, if not on day one even.

Motion capture 1st with Human line-workers. These folks need to be experts, which requires experience and time in the job. Then send a mountain of video to DOJO, and build the NNs required for each task. It'll be a slow, inevitable replacement process.

Keep in mind that Tesla is renowned for rapid updates on its assemblylines. That means humans stepping in to produce new training data for DOJO/Optimus. Think of the 'bot as a labor force multipiler. That's what we really want; steadily increasing productivity for labor, which allows for increasing wages while cutting COGS.

Tesla has this sussed just about right. The future will be good.

 

[Cobbler]

If Spiegel is ultra bearish, you know that Optimus will make Tesla Billions

 

[Artful Dodger]

IMO the reason Mexico was sidelined for Texas has more to do with Optimus being ready and not wanting to ship them out of the country.

Hint: its the data collection opportunity that skilled labor offers that will be the real value in having humans on the production line. Imagine if you could learn all the moves of Pele and Beckham et.al then create the ultimate footballer. Too bad there's no video... oh wait.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Video Crew walking the running production line at Giga Berlin:

Might provide some interesting insights.

The system monitoring of each human mediated fastening for quality is awesome. Wireless integration of the torque wrenches into the central computer. Would this be seen elsewhere ?

 

[Artful Dodger]

To test this, I did go ahead and place another reservation for a CT (in addition to my existing reservation)

Kool experimental design! Was your original reservation for a lower-spec RWD? Else, that reservation might be converted into an Order invite before this newly-placed AWD order.

Kinda throws a kink into your experimental design, unless you are prepared to buy two! (or I guess you can ignore the 2nd invite, but then Tesla AI might flag you...)

Cheers to the Scientists!

 

[stef]

What will be the point in manufacturing in Mexico post Optimus ?

Get away from US government/ union sabotage

 

[Artful Dodger]

Hopefully Tesla has learned some things from the Model 3 ramp

The Model 3 production ramp from Jul 2017 to Jun 2018 was all about the rate at which Tesla Automation (formerly Grohmann Engineering Gmbh) could replace the unsuited-for-task battery assembly tooling that Fremont started with.

On CT Delivery Day (Nov 30, 2023), Tesla's Production Chief Lars Moravi said 'I think we've learned a little about production ramping since then', referring to the Model 3 ramp in Fremont. Just look at the difference in the Model 3 ramp in Shanghai, which was 3 years ago.

 

[JusRelax]

Seriously?? This is why stock dropped from $237 to $234 in premarket today? Guess it really is true that most people never read past the headline. So sick and tired of the manipulative media:

 

[Artful Dodger]

What will be the point in manufacturing in Mexico post Optimus ?

Mexico has Free-Trade Agreements with 50 countries world-wide, even more than China. The U.S. has something like 10, and an adversarial relationship with many others.

Tesla's Giga Mexico will become the Export Hub for the Western Hemisphere.

 

[uscbucsfan]

This sounds like nonsense to me. Sure, Tesla is giving themselves until March to deliver the Foundation series trucks. It might take that long, especially if the Beast is harder to get right or has some part that isn't ready yet. But that doesn't mean that if they're ready to deliver in December or January that they won't deliver them then. I think soonest is obvious. Nobody who knows anything has said any different.

And I've seen nothing indicating that they won't start delivering non-Foundation orders ASAP, which might be January. Tesla doesn't sit around waiting for anything. Why would they?

They are, but they are making a small amount pet day.

We know of 2 that have already been delivered.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The system monitoring of each human mediated fastening for quality is awesome. Wireless integration of the torque wrenches into the central computer. Would this be seen elsewhere ?

Wow! Imagine if those cameras were also collecting training video for DOJO? oj oj!

 

[Fred42]

View attachment 998884

The cat's out of the bag. No more federal tax credit for all Model 3 in 2024 (M3P is not available for ordering at this moment).

I'm guessing Tesla is going to focus more on Model Y sales for the US market next year.

Although you might be correct about the end of the tax credit for the RWD and LR 3, the Tesla statement doesn't say that. Reduction to $3750 would fit their wording.

The M3P is available for ordering.

 

[jerry33]

What will be the point in manufacturing in Mexico post Optimus ?

Mexico's trade agreements with other South and Latin America countries.