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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I was a broker from 1988 to 2007. I ran portfolios of small aggressive growth companies, you know, like the ones that are easily manipulated by media and (naked) short sellers. Reuter was always, even in the early 90's, the go-to medium for the Fud and downright lies that these criminals use in their efforts to devalue companies for profit. They have actually been very successful in thwarting hopeful start-ups, putting many out of business.

Edit: The "naked" component really didn't start until the Madoff Exemption came into existence in 2001-ish.
 
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We don't know how much demand because at the price it was being sold (combined with incentives of course) GM wasn't making enough of them. Try looking for inventory if there was any, it was base or overloaded. Bolt EUV was clearly the #3 EV in the USA. Bolt + Bolt EUV were selling 6k per month earlier this year, then 4k per month (essentially capacity) and that's despite crap DCFC speeds and CCS.

Now imagine it charged like the LFP 3SR, and had Supercharger access.
Yeah... I was more taking at GM "showing the way" for much of anything, given the "You led Mary!" rhetoric...

But certainly believe that a small hatchback platform done The Tesla Way has potential to sell like hotcakes...
 
To the antonymous Mod that didn't sign the message removal : I don't have the source data to get rid of the red line. I've gotten rid of the references to what the red line is about which is as good as I can do.

Also it would have been so much easier to replace if you would have just deleted the attachment instead of the message. I didn't keep a copy of my first message.



To All: I've tried to gather the data to make a chart like this in the past and haven't found any reasonably time effective way to do it to this point. Today I stumbled across this chart. If I had the source data I'd make a different version.


1703717415668.png
 
I was a broker from 1988 to 2007. I ran portfolios of small aggressive growth companies, you know, like the ones that are easily manipulated by media and (naked) short sellers. Reuter was always, even in the early 90's, the go-to medium for the Fud and downright lies that these criminals use in their efforts to devalue companies for profit. They have actually been very successful in thwarting hopeful start-ups, putting many out of business.

Edit: The "naked" component really didn't start until the Madoff Exemption came into existence in 2001-ish.
Around about the same time as that, I worked for a UK company called datastream/ICV. Our competitors were reuters and bloomberg. AFAIK at the time, reuters were basically a financial data services company, even back then. In other words they were very *in* with people working on trading floors.
A few years of that, and extensive research since has taught me that there is a HUGE industry that is deciated to one goal:
Make
People
Trade
Big companies make billions from getting people to buy, then to sell, then buy, then sell. Trade baby! Trade! They make money on the orders regardless which direction it goes. To enable this ludicrously profitable setup you need agitprop clickbait (business insider, cnbc, seeking alpha), a complicit mainstream media (cnn, wall st journal), a host of brokers that offer discounts for frequent trading, and 'live news feed' style services like reuters who will give you second-by-second updates that you should trade on RIGHT NOW, before you even finish the headline.

If Tesla were struggling financially, these same people would run enthusiastic clickbait to drive them up, like they do with Lucid, Rivian, so people would buy stock. They pimp the losers and trash the winners, all part of the constant cycle to get dumb money to keep paying those trading fees...

Yes I am cynical, but also I speak from experience. Buy and HOLD. Consider making a trade every six months at most. Its working well for me :D YMMV
 
I can say with conviction they were at 112784… yesterday so some clever person should be able to project the res clearing rate per day.
Except that they are not going in order as I have two reservations and my latter number got picked and I haven’t received a message yet about my first one. Both were placed asap on announcement night.
 
Is it just me who thinks that both Highland and Juniper are all about reduced manufacturing time and costs, and have zero to do with boosting sales through cosmetics?
I think Highland and Juniper do have some lower manufacturing costs and the GA phase is probably quicker.

I see it as a 3 cornered triangle with all 3 points being hit:-
  • More attractive and efficient product.
  • Lower components costs.
  • Faster build time.

We still don't know what was done, or how it was done, and we will not know until a teardown is completed..

The Highland name did cause some to associate the new Model 3 with "Highland Park" implying that the refresh was all about cost reduction.

However, the Highland is clearly a better product than the previous Model 3 and some of those changes like a rear screen or additional speakers would have cost more.

It is likely that the improved suspension and interiors cost less than the previous version, and this is the strongest clue about what was actually done.

As far as we know many product improvements and cost reductions were not included:-
  • Front and rear castings.
  • Structural battery pack.
  • Etherloop and 48V architecture
  • steer-by-wire
  • 800V architecture and V2H.
  • 4680 battery cells.
  • New motors.
We also know that most of the R&D for Highland was done in China and ruling out the major architectural changes above, changes were probably in the GA phase on construction and probably mostly involved new components - e.g. headlights.

What I expect to find is that a lot of the components that are installed in the GA phase have been reviewed and revised, and any new versions are cheaper and better, as well as being faster and easier to install. So my guess is lots of small changes adding up, but large potential future improvements left on the table for now.

In this context we can view Highland as a precursor to Cybertruck and Gen3, some of the improved components and processes are probably also in those models.

When it is lots of small changes all adding up, it will take a really expert teardown to work out what has changed, what the cost savings are and to sum the overall result in terms of COGS - time and money.
 
The view from the 26th of December:

As of close of market TSLA now is, for the first time in a very long while, in the green for:
* the day +1.6%
* the week +0.6%
* the month +9.6%
* last three months +9.1%
* last six months +2.6%
* year to date +137.4%
* the past year +135.2%

A good way to start the year’s final week.
Day #2 out of 4 in this trade-shortened week:

Well begun is partly done. Here is the view from the 27th:

* the day +1.9%
* the week +2.4%
* the month +10.9%
* last three months +6.1%
* last six months +2.0%
* year to date +141.9%
* the past year +132.0%
 
Let me check my score card...

  • Cybertruck has begun production ramp and deliveries are coming soon to begin to fill a multi-year backlog of reservations in 2024

  • FSD 12 is in limited testing on the road, and, will go out to Beta users once the team have confidence it is ready for prime time. Likely early 2024

  • Shanghai has rumors percolating about a Model Y refresh coming soon, like, say, mid 2024

  • Another rumor mill is turning out speculation on the Gen 3 line in GTex being nearly finished, with the possibility of reservations or maybe even deliveries looming,... in late 2024

  • China has started construction on a new Megapacktory that may begin to crank out Megapacks as early as Q4 2024

  • This latest version of Optimus has us optimistic that it might find gainful employment at Tesla, SpaceX or someplace Boring, maybe in 2024

Would it be over the top for me to be feeling anxious over the fact that
2024 can't get here soon enough?​
 
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Wow, so many incredibly positive long-term announcements, it’s hard to keep up!

Just a matter of time now. The only thing I can see keeping this freight train from demolishing TSLAQ is Elon deciding he needs to keep the stock price in check to maintain incentive for employees. But even that would be temporary/short term. Long term, the story has already been written.
 
Wow, so many incredibly positive long-term announcements, it’s hard to keep up! ... temporary/short term. Long term, the story has already been written.

... and Wall-E wants to pretend that growth is already priced in! Take for example AJ of MorganStanley and his inane $85/share 'Auto-only' price for Tesla. He's assuming HALF the growth rate (22% CAGR) to 7.4M cars produced in 2030, an ASP of $36.5K per car, and a PE multiple of 5.

Five! That's below the Auto Industry average multiple currently of 6.57 and close to GM's multiple of 5.05 as of Dec 2023. Even freakin Ford get's a multiple of 8.08 right now!

The average PE multiple on the S&P 500 is 25. The 'Magnificent-7' is over 50. AJ is a joke, trying to steal from retail with his free 'Notes to Clients'. Worthless!

Tesla's growth rate should be double what AJ gives them (1.44% CAGR). Their 2030 Auto production should be 20M cars @ ASP of $29,250. Net auto profits at 20% should be $117B. Spread over 3.18B shares (no buybacks!) that's an EPS of $36.80

At a 50x multiple the TSLA share price 'sum-of-parts' for AUTO ONLY should be $1,840 Everything else is extra. Like 2x extra for TE, 10x for Robotaxi and 100x-1,000x for Teslabot. Did I mention DOJO-as-a-service? How about 70% of AMZN, or equal to current value of AWS.

AJ is a typical ***-******* B.Sc Phys. Ed graduate who bought a suit, took a wrong turn, and ended up on Wall St.
 
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Let me check my score card...

  • Cybertruck has begun production ramp and deliveries are coming soon to begin to fill a multi-year backlog of reservations in 2024

  • FSD 12 is in limited testing on the road, and, will go out to Beta users once the team have confidence it is ready for prime time. Likely early 2024

  • Shanghai has rumors percolating about a Model Y refresh coming soon, like, say, mid 2024

  • Another rumor mill is turning out speculation on the Gen 3 line in GTex being nearly finished, with the possibility of reservations or maybe even deliveries looming,... in late 2024

  • China has started construction on a new Megapacktory that may begin to crank out Megapacks as early as Q4 2024

  • This latest version of Optimus has us optimistic that it might find gainful employment at Tesla, SpaceX or someplace Boring, maybe in 2024

Would it be over the top for me to be feeling anxious over the fact that
2024 can't get here soon enough?​
The good old days are now. The future might be dystopian.