Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Bet TSLA]

It seems you have a possibly irrational hatred of somebody because of a biased picture that has been painted for you.

It is rather bizarre to think that anybody needs to rely on anybody other than Elon to paint a picture of what Elon thinks. He posts constantly on X. And developing a hatred for what he says isn't hard at all.

 

[Tronguy]

How about sinking it?

Yeah, well, the general idea with ships is to have the water on the outside and the sailors on the inside, not the other way around .

(FWIW, I used to be assigned to a damage control party on an aircraft carrier. Lots of running around and drills but, thankfully, no actual fires that needed to be fought. The school that trained one up on the Techniques was Other, though.)

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Hello sports fans, the 2023 season has come to a close, and it was a very good year for Team Tesla. The final closing price was 83% of the 52 week high, but still a ways from the all time high. Last season, Tesla was 6 games below 0.500, and this year they were 24 games above 0.500, for a 30 win improvement. One of the highlights of the season was a 13 game winning streak that started on May 25

The scouting report for 2024 is looking pretty good, so hopefully coach Elon can keep the team performing at a high level.

Here are the final stats for 2023.

Record:	137-113	0.548
Total margin of wins:	736.98
Total margin of losses:	-611.68
YTD gain/loss:	125.30	101.7%
Best Win:	25.08	Sep 11
Worst Loss:	-28.36	Jul 20
Last 10:	5-5
Streak:	L2
Avg margin of victory:	5.38
Avg margin of defeat:	-5.41
Avg Volume:	117,421,980
Avg Volume of Last 10:	107,653,541
Avg High - Low:	8.96
Avg H - L of Last 10:	7.75

 

[mongo]

Yeah, well, the general idea with ships is to have the water on the outside and the sailors on the inside, not the other way around .

(FWIW, I used to be assigned to a damage control party on an aircraft carrier. Lots of running around and drills but, thankfully, no actual fires that needed to be fought. The school that trained one up on the Techniques was Other, though.)

Dump the warp core...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Musk messes up. Musk makes mistakes. Musk says horrible stupid things. I don’t need to read an article about Musk I can see in writing the sometimes inappropriate and sometimes terrible things he says, and does. There’s a middle ground.

People that repeat the lies (whether knowingly, or not) are the problem. That's the goal of negative PR campaigns, to manipulate the audience. The financial backers remain safe from scrutiny while false headlines repeat a drumbeat of lies.

That's the "tiring" you referred to, when lies are constantly debunked but then repeated endlessly (because PR operatives don't care about truth, they only care about their paychecks).

Sorry, no middle ground. We can agree to disagree. Let's talk again after the lawsuit against Media Matters for attacking Ad. revenue on X is resolved.

 

[Surfer of Life]

Good video

TL;DR:
Optimus will have insane demand and profit margins for Tesla. This basically sounds reasonable to me.

Very worth watching IMHO; why so few likes?

 

[SmokyPeat]

It was charging at the full 250 KW rate near the beginning but ramps down.

View attachment 1004320

It's quite possible that Tesla has temporarily throttled the charging curve on the new to market "Cybercells" until they have collected some more real world data. I wouldn't be surprised if an OTA update allows for faster charging in the near future.

 

[wipster]

Yeah, well, the general idea with ships is to have the water on the outside and the sailors on the inside, not the other way around .

(FWIW, I used to be assigned to a damage control party on an aircraft carrier. Lots of running around and drills but, thankfully, no actual fires that needed to be fought. The school that trained one up on the Techniques was Other, though.)

I meant after they evacuated the crew obviously. Unless they're GM execs or certain Democratic Senators...

 

[Krugerrand]

I have tremendous respect for you. The reason I disagreed with this is that there’s a third option. Some people think everything Musk is bad. Some people, especially here, think everything Musk is good, genius, 4D chess, etc etc. it’s exhausting. The reality is Musk is absolutely a net benefit to the planet and our wallets. However, it’s disappointing that many think he can do no wrong. Musk messes up. Musk makes mistakes. Musk says horrible stupid things. I don’t need to read an article about Musk I can see in writing the sometimes inappropriate and sometimes terrible things he says, and does. There’s a middle ground. Let’s all be a little more open to the idea this genius isn’t perfect in 2024 while continuing to support his companies and his mostly great actions.

That’s not true. Nobody here has ever thought Musk can do no wrong, hasn’t made mistakes etc…. Ever. We all know he’s human and thus suffers from the same afflictions as all of us.

Carry on feeling the need to point out his errors, but have a little respect for the rest of us who don’t feel the need to do that, and take this tired line of bs to the other thread/s where all the vultures thrive on his mistakes.

 

[AudubonB]

Yeah, well, the general idea with ships is to have the water on the outside and the sailors on the inside, not the other way around .

(FWIW, I used to be assigned to a damage control party on an aircraft carrier. Lots of running around and drills but, …

Hmmm… confused. Lots of energetic young men on a ship running around with drills…..doesn’t that suggest risking a bunch of holes in the hull?

 

[InTheMiddle]

Sorry, no middle ground. We can agree to disagree. Let's talk again after the lawsuit against Media Matters for attacking Ad. revenue on X is resolved.

Just a thought - yes, happy to have this put on hold for now and revisited after that lawsuit is resolved, exactly as you ask.

Question for everyone to contemplate in the meantime...since you brought up this lawsuit, it's fair to ask, "If the lawsuit is resolved in favor of Media Matters and *not* in X's favor, would you (@Artful Dodger) reconsider your view? Or is it only 'If X wins then everyone else should reconsider their view?'"???

 

[2daMoon]

I do think that the point of sale tax credit on Model Y will more than make up for the loss of the credit on Model 3. Austin has a lot of extra capacity for producing Model Y. I expect a huge increase in US sales of Model Y.

This ^^^^^

Zaddy Daddy may not be a bear, but they are a pessimist. Seeming to most often look at how things Tesla does can further empty the glass rather than fill it. (Because Tesla has always struggled with filling that glass?)

So, ZD considering something like how Model 3 volume compares to Model Y volume isn't taken into account. Or, how switching to Chinese batteries on the Model 3 will have a limited impact, and could be a strategic move.

Further considering how Tesla might want to use those IRA qualifying US batteries from the Model 3 for Megapacks, or something else that will make a better return for Tesla from clean energy incentives over the coming year wouldn't be the sort of thing ZD would do.

Clearly, ZD believes that whatever comes into their analysis outweighs the information they haven't considered, and which those managing Tesla actually use to make decisions.

So, rather than take the next logical step and try to work out how one of the most successful businesses in the history of the world might be doing things another way, simply because it will serve the company better, ZD will unload here with their (non-bearish) soft doom and gloom side of things without any attempt to figure out what other possibilities might bear fruit because of those choices Tesla has made.

I have more faith in Tesla's analysis in regard to running their business than I do ZD's half-baked attempt at seeing the future.

ZD doesn't strike me as what some might call a "possibility thinker" and because of this their analysis sees with crystal clarity the ever-emptying glass.

 

[Krugerrand]

Just a thought - yes, happy to have this put on hold for now and revisited after that lawsuit is resolved, exactly as you ask.

Question for everyone to contemplate in the meantime...since you brought up this lawsuit, it's fair to ask, "If the lawsuit is resolved in favor of Media Matters and *not* in X's favor, would you (@Artful Dodger) reconsider your view? Or is it only 'If X wins then everyone else should reconsider their view?'"???

As long as you’re contemplating the question too.

 

[spacerfc]

Just a thought - yes, happy to have this put on hold for now and revisited after that lawsuit is resolved, exactly as you ask.

Question for everyone to contemplate in the meantime...since you brought up this lawsuit, it's fair to ask, "If the lawsuit is resolved in favor of Media Matters and *not* in X's favor, would you (@Artful Dodger) reconsider your view? Or is it only 'If X wins then everyone else should reconsider their view?'"???

There're plenty - and I mean PLENTY - of instances where Musk is eventually proven to be either entirely correct or more likely to be correct (for example political issues like BS, U, LL and WMV, or technical projects like Semi, Cybertruck, Starlink, Starship), yet none of his detractors admit they were wrong, instead they just double down and work harder to campaign against him, how about you contemplate this first?

 

[InTheMiddle]

That’s not true. Nobody here has ever thought Musk can do no wrong, hasn’t made mistakes etc…. Ever. We all know he’s human and thus suffers from the same afflictions as all of us.

Carry on feeling the need to point out his errors, but have a little respect for the rest of us who don’t feel the need to do that, and take this tired line of bs to the other thread/s where all the vultures thrive on his mistakes.

Absolutes are problematic, as it only takes one counterexample to disprove absolutes. I optimistically assume you meant to convey that only a few people here think Musk can do no wrong, and that most know he's human and occasionally makes mistakes like other humans do. This non-absolutist version I can agree with.

<I only post this because, at a certain in-person meeting, a formerly-prolific poster on here who, by all accounts was fairly well regarded in this community, was directly asked if there was *anything* Mr. Musk had ever said or done that he disagreed with or felt shouldn't have been said or done. The answer was a firm "No, absolutely not." Taken aback somewhat by the ferventness of the 'no', I pressed to confirm, including mentioning the tweet that had just been made that morning which was abhorrent (IMHO) to say and which objectively has since been proven factually false, and again, the answer was a zealous "No" followed by statements to the effect that 'he (Mr. Musk) probably knows something about it I just didn't know yet". Mr. Musk himself has acknowledged his errors at times, to his credit, and I respect Mr. Musk more when he has done so, as I respect anyone more when they acknowledge their errors, and I try to acknowledge my own as well. But it shook me to see such absoluteness in his follower, however...someone whom seemed to be highly regarded in this community at the time (but has since migrated primarly to X, I believe). It was enough to make me reconsider this entire thread to some degree. So, at least one person here has (does still?) thought Musk can do no wrong, hasn't made mistakes, etc...>

 

[InTheMiddle]

As long as you’re contemplating the question too.

Yes, I am 100% contemplating it as well, no eye rolling at all. I'm quite interested to see how that develops, with an open mind, and with a concerted effort to realize my own biases so that they can be set aside, and let the facts as they are revealed dictate what happens next and how I think next. One of my favorite sayings is "When the facts change, I change my mind - what do you do, sir?" (exact phrasing and attribution to either Keynes or Samuelson or others I leave to the reader to research). I try to adhere to this guidance; hopefully I succeed in my efforts more often than I fail in them.

There're plenty - and I mean PLENTY - of instances where Musk is eventually proven to be either entirely correct or more likely to be correct (for example political issues like BS, U, LL and WMV, or technical projects like Semi, Cybertruck, Starlink, Starship), yet none of his detractors admit they were wrong, instead they just double down and work harder to campaign against him, how about you contemplate this first?

See above. I see areas / issues where I believe Mr. Musk is correct and causing benefit to the world. I also see areas / issues where I believe Mr. Musk is incorrect and causing harm to the world. I would say the same about myself and every other real human being I have encountered. I can name a few things I like or agree with even in those I care for the least; I can think of a few things I dislike or disagree with in even in those I care for the most. It does not have to be all or nothing.

 

[Musskiah]

Tony Seba on the money. Given this cost decline curve: Are the ASPs in most of these TSLA Auto models people are posting all over the interwebs far too high for Tesla later this decade and into 2030? No one seems to have long term ASPs below $30k, let alone $40k. Does anyone think it could be sub-$20k? I wonder what Seba would predict for TSLA? Just some ponderables I hope to channel in my REM sleep. I figured I would bounce them off the Tesla Geek Squad...err....Motors...Club....Forum

 

[MP3Mike]

It's quite possible that Tesla has temporarily throttled the charging curve on the new to market "Cybercells" until they have collected some more real world data. I wouldn't be surprised if an OTA update allows for faster charging in the near future.

People keep saying the same thing about the charging curve on the 4680 Model Y AWD. They have never made it better even after getting lots of data...

 

[Krugerrand]

Absolutes are problematic, as it only takes one counterexample to disprove absolutes. I optimistically assume you meant to convey that only a few people here think Musk can do no wrong, and that most know he's human and occasionally makes mistakes like other humans do. This non-absolutist version I can agree with.

<I only post this because, at a certain in-person meeting, a formerly-prolific poster on here who, by all accounts was fairly well regarded in this community, was directly asked if there was *anything* Mr. Musk had ever said or done that he disagreed with or felt shouldn't have been said or done. The answer was a firm "No, absolutely not." Taken aback somewhat by the ferventness of the 'no', I pressed to confirm, including mentioning the tweet that had just been made that morning which was abhorrent (IMHO) to say and which objectively has since been proven factually false, and again, the answer was a zealous "No" followed by statements to the effect that 'he (Mr. Musk) probably knows something about it I just didn't know yet". Mr. Musk himself has acknowledged his errors at times, to his credit, and I respect Mr. Musk more when he has done so, as I respect anyone more when they acknowledge their errors, and I try to acknowledge my own as well. But it shook me to see such absoluteness in his follower, however...someone whom seemed to be highly regarded in this community at the time (but has since migrated primarly to X, I believe). It was enough to make me reconsider this entire thread to some degree. So, at least one person here has (does still?) thought Musk can do no wrong, hasn't made mistakes, etc...>

Here’s what’s being missed by anyone who thinks they have to find fault in Elon, in anyone for that matter, and point it out to the rest of us so they can be perceived as having a balanced, middle of the road view of said person; it’s bs.

Ask me that question and I’ll answer exactly the same way and here’s why. I understand that everyone has their own path to walk, their own mistakes to make, their own experiences to learn from. It’s not for me to question how they walk their path, as it’s not for them to question how I walk mine. I’ve made mistakes in my life, even a few doozies, yet I’d not take one of them back. Those mistakes as well as the not-mistakes got me ‘here’, right where I’m supposed to be. The same is true of Elon.

So no, there’s not a single thing Elon has done that I wish he hadn’t, that I disagree with in this specific context. Every single thing he’s done serves a purpose to him and his path, including all the mistakes glorious or otherwise. None of that means I think he’s perfect. None of that means I don’t sometimes wrongly wish he was a bit less himself so life could be easier for him and my mountain fortress account. But such is life. If nothing else, it’s exciting as all get out.

 

[jabloomf1230]

I agree that Tesla might at present, want to use FIRA-eligible batteries in cars other than the M3, at least until the inventory of non-Highland cars is exhausted and the initial rush to buy Highlands fades. That situation might last until 24Q3 and then Highlands will get FIRA-eligible batteries again.