Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Hock1]

When does the tax credit become a point of sale deduction? Does that immediately come off the quoted price from Tesla? Not sure how that is going to work.

Dan

The way that it has worked for me, twice, is that it is a credit against taxes owed. It is not an issue of what you paid for the car. It is simply a credit against taxes that you owe or have paid during the year. I.e., If you do not owe taxes equal to or more than the credit, you do not get the full benefit from the credit.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I predict Optimus will be battery flexible. Tesla will create battery packs using each cell type and shuffle between them to balance cell supply. It should be much easier than cars and the usage/charging demands should be less stringent.

Unnecessary complication. Right now, Optimus Gen2 likely uses 4680s from Kato Rd. Tesla plans to manufacture Optimus at Reno, NV. Elon has said they plan to add 4 or 5 4680 cell lines there. Just 1 line will produce enough 4680 cells for 10 million Optimus bots per year.

P.S. 96 Optimus bots can be built with the cells used to make just 1 Cybertruck. Which do you think has a higher ROI?

 

[dhanson865]

Hertz doing a different kind of advertising for Tesla. Check out the odometers on these.

 

[wipster]

So is availability the only real reason Tesla chose not to change the battery configurations on the 3's? As @mongo and others have said many times, they've known about this for quite a while. It just doesn't seem logical for their lowest priced cars not to be able to take advantage of a $7,500 deduction at point of sale, even if the new configuration cost more!

Tesla must have something up their sleeve and I'd bet we'll know soon... in two weeks!

 

[Knightshade]

So is availability the only real reason Tesla chose not to change the battery configurations on the 3's? As @mongo and others have said many times, they've known about this for quite a while. It just doesn't seem logical for their lowest priced cars not to be able to take advantage of a $7,500 deduction at point of sale, even if the new configuration cost more!

Tesla must have something up their sleeve and I'd bet we'll know soon... in two weeks!

Change it to what? There's simply no more US made 2170s or 4680s available to put in them....and no US made LFPs at all.

Some have suggested Tesla expected to be further ahead on 4680 advancement and output by now, freeing up 2170s currently going into Ys... but since they're not it wouldn't make sense for Tesla to move their 2170s from higher priced cars to lower priced ones if they had nothing to put in the higher priced ones and willing customers to buy them.

 

[wipster]

Change it to what? There's simply no more US made 2170s or 4680s available to put in them....and no US made LFPs at all.

Some have suggested Tesla expected to be further ahead on 4680 advancement and output by now, freeing up 2170s currently going into Ys... but since they're not it wouldn't make sense for Tesla to move their 2170s from higher priced cars to lower priced ones if they had nothing to put in the higher priced ones and willing customers to buy them.

Well you answered my question!

 

[MP3Mike]

When does the tax credit become a point of sale deduction? Does that immediately come off the quoted price from Tesla? Not sure how that is going to work.

Dan

Tesla hasn't even announced that they are going to support it yet...

 

[JustSaying]

For anyone with a library, the book is free, regardless of format. Of course you may have to wait a bit, but if you haven't read it yet that's obviously not a problem.

Also try the free libby app it has both Audible and Kindle type loans free with a library card

Libby

All over the world, local libraries offer millions of ebooks and audiobooks. You can borrow them — for free, instantly — with a library card and Libby: the award-winning, much-loved app for libraries.

libbyapp.com

 

[hooty]

The BYD seagull is definitely cheap, but comparing its safety ratings on the euroncap site is interesting. Its not catastrophic by any means, but its definitely noticeably worse than the model Y. It also charges at 40kw... which kinda sucks.
I do hope the model 2 is announced in 2024. It would be worrying to go another year and let vehicles like the MG4 and Seagull get too established as entry level EVs.
Knowing Tesla, they are taking their time but will then come out with something game-changing.

Disagree - BYD R&D is working away at sodium-ion battery tech, which is rumoured to go in the Seagull - will make it a step down tier cheaper again.
FYI, Dolphin is 5 star cash rated (less than half the price of Model Y). If Seagull isn't 5 star, not difficult to upgrade.

 

[Paul_SF]

So is availability the only real reason Tesla chose not to change the battery configurations on the 3's? As @mongo and others have said many times, they've known about this for quite a while. It just doesn't seem logical for their lowest priced cars not to be able to take advantage of a $7,500 deduction at point of sale, even if the new configuration cost more!

Tesla must have something up their sleeve and I'd bet we'll know soon... in two weeks!

Maybe they will completely stop making M3 LR/SR in US, and make only M3P? Especially with the Gen3 coming makes no sense to have the 3 anymore in US. Most people want the Y now and even more will want the Gen3.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla hasn't even announced that they are going to support it yet...

Treasury says 7,400 dealers have signed up for electric vehicle tax credit | thehill.com (2023-12-29)

"The Treasury Department told reporters later Friday evening that Ford and Tesla have also submitted eligible VINs.​

​

"While the department expects more automakers to submit VINs in the weeks ahead, “VINs not yet provided by manufacturers and available in IRS Energy Credits Online are not eligible vehicles as of January 1, 2024.”​

​

"It said “eligibility cannot be determined retroactively—that is, sales of ineligible vehicles cannot become sales of eligible vehicles if VINs for such vehicles are submitted in the future.”​

​

"In the case of vehicles that enter service on Jan. 1 or later, Treasury recommended that buyers planning to claim or transfer a new or used tax credit make sure they obtain a copy of the time-of-sale report."​

So I expect Tesla will have all the approvals in place before CT customer deliveries begin this month.

Cheers!

 

[MC3OZ]

Maybe they will completely stop making M3 LR/SR in US, and make only M3P? Especially with the Gen3 coming makes no sense to have the 3 anymore in US. Most people want the Y now and even more will want the Gen3.

Tesla Model Y Seeing Twice As Many Sales As Tesla Model 3 — How Will This Change? - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! As the saying goes, “the only constant in this world is change.” The Tesla Model 3 was once king of the hill in the EV world. Even for years before the first Model 3 ... [continued]

cleantechnica.com

According to focus2move, Tesla Model Y’s sales total in the first 4 months of the year increased 77.2% year over year. It had 336,753 unit sales in 2023. The second best selling model was the Toyota Corolla at 325,984. The Tesla Model 3 was way down below at 180,839 miles. According to that data, the Model Y is seeing almost twice as many sales as the Model 3.

Comparing the Model 3 to the Model Y is a bit tough on the 3, the Y is just about the most popular car of any type worldwide, and easily the highest selling EV.

In most tables I have seen Model Y is number 1 but Model 3 is typically No 3 or 4.

if the M3P is higher margin then priority should obviously be given to making that trim.

Make M3 LR/SR with the rest of the Fremont M3 capacity and export any cars that will not sell in the US market.

It makes little sense to build M3 production in Mexico if Fremont can supply all of the Americas. M3 has shipped from Fremont to the Asia Pacific before, and typically ships to Canada.

Like @wipster, I think this problem is only temporary, Tesla will be trying to find a way of allowing all M3 trims to qualify. Temporary could be all of Q1, sometimes a quick solution isn't possible.

 

[Electroman]

Good prediction by this Xposter...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1741908964646732111

Chinese electric automaker BYD is about to outsell Tesla this year. Here's how it's winning the race against Elon Musk.

China's BYD is almost certain to sell more electric cars worldwide in the final quarter of 2023 and take pole position over Tesla for the first time.

www.businessinsider.com

Tesla about to lose crown to China's BYD startup: Here's where Elon Musk went wrong

 

[Artful Dodger]

James Stephenson turns an epic meme into an instant classic "Who's Hatin' Hard?" episode:

NHTSA Asleep At The Wheel | James Stephenson videos (2024-01-01)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla about to lose crown to China's BYD startup: Here's where Elon Musk went wrong | businessinsider

Ooh, epic take-down by businessinsider. Next they should do Apple vs Nokia. /s

 

[mongo]

So I expect Tesla will have all the approvals in place before CT customer deliveries begin this month.

Cheers!

Foundation series likely won't qualify due to coming from factory at >$80k with options.

 

[mongo]

Tesla hasn't even announced that they are going to support it yet...

Tesla must register on the IRS site for buyers to get any form of credit. At that point, it's only a little more effort to register for advanced payments (credit transfer).

Would be shocking for Tesla to not take the second step.

 

[AudubonB]

(No: I do NOT know what "XYSXRS" stands for, but am all ears as to your ideas. And it's a good thing the CT is "colorless", as we've reached the end of acceptable hues within Tesla's limited palette )

Hold the press:

I need to shuffle our cars. I must be the last on TMC to see that obviously, the vehicles spell out:

SXXY SR

 

[WolfHero]

Taiwan's December sales numbers are out:

1.Toyota Corolla Cross，3587
2.Honda CR-V，2133
3.Toyota RAV4，2092
4.Toyota Townace，1723
5.Toyota Altis，1519
6.Toyota Yaris Cross，1509
7.MG HS，1160
8.Tesla Model Y，1054
9.Mitsubishi Veryca，853
10.Ford Focus，762
11.Toyota Vios，758
12.Nissan Kicks，745
13.Honda HR-V，732
14.Lexus NX，732
15.Volvo XC40，661
16.VW Tiguan，621
17.M.Benz GLC，617
18.Honda Fit，554
19.Tesla Model X，544
20.Mazda CX-5，543
20.CMC Zinger，543

Source: 台灣 12 月新車銷售破 4.3 萬輛！8 款車賣破千輛 - 自由電子報汽車頻道

 

[Dan Detweiler]

The way that it has worked for me, twice, is that it is a credit against taxes owed. It is not an issue of what you paid for the car. It is simply a credit against taxes that you owe or have paid during the year. I.e., If you do not owe taxes equal to or more than the credit, you do not get the full benefit from the credit.

I thought that the EV tax credit towards taxes owed (as you point out) was being replaced with a point of sale discount that could be realized immediately. Am I way off on that?

Dan