Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ChiefRollo]

Tesla and BYD’s continued growth is synonymous with EV growth within the total automotive pie, more at the expense of ICE vehicles and much less from stealing shares among themselves (EV players). How well each does is less important than how well they continue to do as a whole. Learning from each other will make them that much more formidable to the complacent legacy automaker powerhouse.

 

[unk45]

Note to all: I know in my recent posts I may sound like an apologist for China. I am not. I am a realist who recognizes that people who have grown with one type of behavior and encounter one dramatically different almost always think of 'the other' as somehow defective. That is dangerous because feelings of superiority on one part invariably produce non-optimal results.

 

[uscbucsfan]

I see a lot of comments here around how BYD will never be sold in the U.S A. I ASSUME that us because of #China. Is that strictly because of unfair tarrifs (which can always change)? I can't imagine it is more than that, given, you know there was another country in Asia that we didn't like for a long time that has ultimately done very well here...you know...the one that attacked us...drew us into war...ultimately had an atomic bomb dropped on them. Seems like "Chinese cars selling in the U.S." is entirely possible to me...just a matter of when.

There's a 27.5% tariff on Chinese automobiles, plus no tax credit, plus there are some portions of the NDAA that ban the sale of Chinese made chipsets to the Federal Government. Some provisions in the NDAA are interpreted to exclude sellers of components with Chinese chipsets to sell other, non-Chinese products, to the Federal Government. So with electronics, surveillance, and even vehicles, many are completely abstaining from selling any lines with Chinese made chipsets.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Is that strictly because of unfair tarrifs (which can always change)?

Yes, this could change and even turn into a tit for tat game (China/USA). The EV game is where China aims to win all Auto Mfg, and where Tesla is the exception in exchange for the skills and knowledge. BYD will sell in US is my belief - price matters and people have never cared where their pants were produced, sadly.

Anyone watch the recent Game Theory related episode on Veritasium? (Prisoner's Dilema)

In summary, best strategy is always to:
1. Trust
2. Forgive, but...
3. Don't be a push-over (Edit: This is where China is on the EV game IMO)

 

[ChiefRollo]

I've owned a fremont built model S, and a shanghai built model Y. The shanghai car is absolutely light years better built than the fremont one. Anecdotal I know, but I know I'd never buy a fremont built Tesla if a shanghai one was available.

A more relevant perspective would be from the same year same model don’t you think? Absent that evidence, reckless conclusion would simply be foolish at best and and deceptive at worst.

 

[Maarten]

In Norway the EV-percentage in 2023 of sold new cars was 82%.
So, almost 5 out of 6 cars (! ), with Tesla’s share of the market rising from 12.2% to 20.0% (again ).
If this is what the near future of the world will look like, then that would be tremendous.

Tesla extends lead in Norway sales, EVs take 82% market share

Tesla topped Norway's car sales for a third straight year in 2023, extending its lead over rivals despite an ongoing conflict between the U.S. electric vehicle maker and the Nordic region's powerful labour unions. Almost five out of six new cars sold in Norway last year were powered by battery...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[dhanson865]

 

[FreqFlyer]

I've owned a fremont built model S, and a shanghai built model Y. The shanghai car is absolutely light years better built than the fremont one. Anecdotal I know, but I know I'd never buy a fremont built Tesla if a shanghai one was available.

I reading this sentiment on Reddit or even here. Why is that? The tooling is newer at the newer factories?

 

[Electroman]

Rivian Crushed Production Estimates. Why Its Stock Is Dropping.

Shares of electric-vehicle maker Rivian are lower after the company announced strong fourth-quarter production data.

www.marketwatch.com

My Gawd the wording in this article....so different from if this was Tesla.

Look at how the media is spinning this negative news as positive for Rivian.. if you pay them protection money they will write anything. On the other hand if Tesla had a very small miss, even if much smaller than Rivian, the headlines would be much different.

"Will Tesla go bankrupt? if so when?"
"Sales are tanking at Tesla, and this is the reason why"
"Musk's Twitter shenanigans are hurting Tesla. Consumers have rejected Tesla big time".
"Elon's dreams have come crashing. Will SpaceX be next?"
"Poor quality & service are not the only reasons why Tesla sales have crashed. Here are 10 more reasons"

 

[Electroman]

In their top article CNBC doesn't call this a beat in any way and instead claims that Tesla reduced guidance from 2M to 1.8M.

Let me guess.. from Lora Fraudaliny ?

 

[GhostSkater]

BYD is doomed in Brazil, I’ve been trying to leave the beach for 5 hours so far, covered 29 km in that time, and only saw one BYD Dolphin, no demand /s

 

[SOULPEDL]

What's happening on the week of Jan 19th? Check out the Open Interest for that week on Max Pain.
Edit: Earnings are 24th.
Earnings are set for the 30th, right? (Followed by SpaceX and Tesla Presentations... I can't wait!!!)

 

[Drumheller]

I've owned a fremont built model S, and a shanghai built model Y. The shanghai car is absolutely light years better built than the fremont one. Anecdotal I know, but I know I'd never buy a fremont built Tesla if a shanghai one was available.

A more relevant perspective would be from the same year same model don’t you think? Absent that evidence, reckless conclusion would simply be foolish at best and and deceptive at worst.

I own a 2021 Model Y built in Fremont in 2020 and I recently purchased a 2023 Model Y built November 2023 in Fremont. My 2021 has a huge panel misalignment on the passenger side that I can see sitting inside a restaurant while parked some ways out. It also had exposed wiring and poorly installed trim pieces on the inside when I took delivery.

I haven't found a flaw on the 2023. I drove it 36 miles yesterday and have looked it over several times in the past 2 weeks, found nothing amiss. The handling, suspension, and fit and finish all seem much better to me than the old Model y.

 

[EQC_]

"Sales subject to Lease Accounting" seems down substantially, too. Implications for financial results?

Cheers!

Interesting drop in the leasing numbers in 2023...maybe they are shifting some of that into 2024 becaues of that IRA loophole?

If I remember correctly, "business dealings" like leases and sales to other companies get to ignore the manufacturing and component origin pieces of the IRA. So, a leased car with components from China still qualifies somebody for that $7500. Likewise for a car sold to Hertz, Uber, etc....

If that be the case...it will be interesting to see if Tesla's "non-qualified" versions of the Model 3, and maybe even the Model S, suddenly become good/inexpensive lease options, offered inexpensively to Uber drivers, etc. I think there is some hint that some of this may have already begun...

 

[Bouboule]

PREDICTION: FSD will demonstrate Level 4 capabilities on current models, but will not officially be level 4 because of the lack of redundancy of sensors (cameras). Gen 3 will be announced with redundant hardware.

P.S: Steer by wire on Cybertruck is a great example of redundancy that is needed for FSD (Munro video 48min30

)

 

[WolfHero]

I assume they made a mistake. Selling 544 Model X in one month in Taiwan sounds very unlikely (Tesla sells less than 10,000 worldwide during a quarter). 544 Model 3 is much more likely.

Another source from Taiwan also shows 544 Model X. This source has more detailed as it lists it under import luxary SUVs on the right column, left column are sedans where Model S delivered 198

In fact, in this source, it explicitely states that Model 3 only had total 511 delivery for the entire 2023 while it's waiting for Highland refresh. Here isthe list of strictly EV sold in December

1​	Tesla Model Y​	1,054​
2​	Tesla Model X​	544​
3​	Tesla Model S​	198​
4​	Volvo XC40 Recharge​	164​
5​	Ford Mustang Mach-E​	62​
6​	Toyota bZ4X​	58​
7​	Volvo C40 Recharge​	57​
8​	Kia EV6​	52​
8​	Porsche Taycan​	52​
9​	BMW i5​	46​
10​	BMW iX1​	35​
11​	BMW iX​	32​
12​	Luxgen n⁷​	24​
13​	CMC E300​	23​
13​	Hyundai Ioniq 5​	23​
14​	Mercedes-EQ EQE​	17​
15​	Audi Q8 e-tron Sportback​	14​
15​	BMW i4​	14​
15​	Mercedes-EQ EQS​	14​
16​	Mercedes-EQ EQA​	13​
16​	Mercedes-EQ EQB​	13​
16​	Mercedes-EQ EQE SUV​	13​
17​	Hyundai Ioniq 6​	12​
18​	Nissan Leaf​	11​
19​	Mercedes-EQ EQS SUV​	10​
20​	Audi Q8 e-tron​	8​
20​	Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo​	8​
21​	Lexus RZ 450e​	7​
22​	Audi e-tron GT​	6​
22​	Mini Cooper SE​	6​
23​	Subaru Solterra​	4​
24​	Jaguar I-Pace​	3​
25​	BMW i7​	2​
25​	Fiat 500e​	2​
26​	Citroën Ë-C4​	1​
26​	Honda e​	1​
26​	Opel Mokka-e​	1​
26​	Rolls-Royce Spectre​	1​
26​	Volkswagen ID.4​	1​
Total​	​	2,606​

Source: 2023年12月份臺灣汽車市場銷售報告 | U-CAR新聞

 

[EQC_]

In their top article CNBC doesn't call this a beat in any way and instead claims that Tesla reduced guidance from 2M to 1.8M.

Remember when Tesla first officially made that 1.8M prediction (probably in the January 2023 report and earnings call)? And then during the earnings call, Elon mentioned 2M was a stretch goal if everything went right?

I remember a bunch of folks here figuratively shaking their fists and saying Elon's 2M figure would be used against Tesla by the media later.

Since that one event, I don't think Tesla or Elon have brought up 2M again. 1.8M has been reitterated consistently since then. And yet, here we are. Media pulling out that 2M number, just as many here predicted.

Good work TMC'ers! A sad congratulations on knowing how predictably lame the media can be...

 

[Dig deeper]

What's happening on the week of Jan 19th? Check out the Open Interest for that week on Max Pain.
Earnings are set for the 30th, right? (Followed by SpaceX and Tesla Presentations... I can't wait!!!)

View attachment 1005062

Opex.

 

[EQC_]

What's happening on the week of Jan 19th? Check out the Open Interest for that week on Max Pain.
Earnings are set for the 30th, right? (Followed by SpaceX and Tesla Presentations... I can't wait!!!)

View attachment 1005062

I believe earnings are set for the 24th...

BUT: I think some predicted that earnings would be on the 18th. Perhaps that explains bets being set for the 19th...

 

[EVNow]

Pfth, Americans would never buy products made in China. An absurd idea!

China still has no recognizable brands in US - and thats a problem for selling cars. It doesn't matter if 90% of everything we buy is made in China - if they are branded as Apple or Sony or Panasonic or Lenovo ...