Elon himself told us demand is near infinite but affordability is not.
From 2022 to 2023 total deliveries went up just under 500k and did so almost entirely on the back of large price cuts and increased tax incentives such that the total # of people who can afford a Tesla increased by about that much.
Without those incentives on many models (and in more than just the US- they went away in some other places too)- and without further significant price cuts, I don't see where you get ANOTHER 700k buyers for the same vehicles THIS year with prices HIGHER for many trims/models thanks to the incentives going away... (or say 600-650k depending how fast you think CT ramps this year).
If such buyers in such numbers existed there'd be a much larger backlog, and we'd be back to near 0 days of inventory.
I'm not going to predict number, but naturally, things are a bit more complicated than just a raised or lowered price dictating the delivery number. There are many economic and other factors that come into play.
Part of the increase in sales isn't just an increase in demand, but an increase in supply. Tesla's 2023 prices are more similar to 2021 prices...but obviously Tesla couldn't deliver 1.8 million cars in 2021 because they couldn't produce that many. Likewise, Tesla couldn't have produced 1.8 million cars in 2022, so they couldn't sell that many then either. In 2023, Tesla could produce that many cars, so they did, and those cars sold. In 2024, Tesla should be able to produce more than 1.8 million cars, and one way or another they will find a way to deliver them -- adjusting prices, adding features, advertising, selling in new markets, promoting the point-of-sale rebate, etc.
You'll note that I included "adjusting prices" and not necessarily lowering them. The price adjusts to where the ever-varying supply and demand curves cross.
For example, we know that Tesla delivered more cars in 2022 than they did in 2021, while RAISING prices significantly. A quick google search says that from May 2021 to July 2022, the price of a LR Model Y in the US went UP $15K, and yet sales increased. Similar was true for the Model S, X, and 3 -- big price increases, with increasing sales. During that time, demand outpaced supply enough that Tesla could raise prices AND sell more cars....probably because the industry as a whole was struggling with supply. The other manufacturers (or their dealers) raised prices...but couldn't actually sell more because the supply wasn't there.
There were unique market conditions at the time...but who knows what we could see in 2024, especially with other EV makers deciding to scale back their EV production plans.
Additionally, most households aren't looking to buy a new car every year...and most people aren't as in-tune to Tesla's prices as we are. So, while 2023 price drops made a Tesla "possible" for many households in 2023, there were still many who weren't looking to buy a car, or didn't know Tesla's price drops, or still didn't really know much about Tesla. As we go into 2024, there are now 1.8 million new Tesla cars on the roads, with their drivers talking to their friends about their car. We know that just having more Teslas on the road means more word of mouth and more demand. And maybe we'll see more news cycle about the Model Y being the world-wide #1 seller for all of 2023. Suddenly, there will be more people with Tesla on their radar. Maybe a new group will realize that the most popular car in the world, beating out the Camry, Corolla, and F-150, could be an interesting purchase.
Tesla also has options, tied to the IRA and tax credits, that can increase demand and deliveries. The point-of-sale rebate on eligible cars will bring in a new group of potential buyers. For their non-eligible cars, Tesla can push leases or business sales -- I believe they will in fact qualify for the tax credit when leased or sold to rental/fleet/rideshare companies.
And, of course there is always a possibility that overall conditions make things worse...but I'd like to avoid bringing up such possibilities.
2024 is a whole new year, with whole new market conditions...as always, Tesla's deliveries for the year should end up within a few thousand of their production number...and Tesla will do what they can to price accordingly and match supply with demand.
