Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[BioSehnsucht]

How many more of Tesla’s top staff is Elon going to poach to work at his own privately owned companies before the Tesla board stops this BS.

Noah may be happy with this move, after all, how many opportunities are there for this sort of position? And there's nothing saying he can't swap back and forth as new projects or the need for his skills dictate. If he's so valuable that "poaching" would be a true concern, then keeping him happy with new challenges so he doesn't just wander off to some other place entirely is a good thing. SpaceX and Tesla share quite a number of employees, and keeping them within this "family" of companies means they're easily tapped when needed, versus if he just left and went someplace entirely different outside these companies.

Without such sharing, we might not have the custom SS for Cybertruck, or it might have taken longer, or not be as good...

 

[Blue horseshoe]

I struggle with this sort of thing:

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How many more of Tesla’s top staff is Elon going to poach to work at his own privately owned companies before the Tesla board stops this BS.

The average Tesla employee often doesn't stay more than two years at Tesla according to some people. There's tons of movement. Your assertions are wildly off the mark. There is regular collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX.

To say he's poaching employees is flat out BS.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Notice how they deftly avoided mentioning the manufacturer or the model in the headlines.

New EV Deemed Total Loss After Battery Replacement Costs More Than Car Itself​

It’s going to take awhile for Hyundai to recover from this. This story is rampant everywhere in Canada. And Hyundai Canada is not taking any proactive action. Dealers can charge what they want for batteries. We are seeing Hyundais like up on our local dealership lot. Especially the i6’s.

 

[EQC_]

Electroman said:
I hoping Tesla does not guide anything more that 2.1M. That is 300K growth. Plenty.

If interest rates come down that number will be easily beat. If it does not then 2.1M will be a struggle.

If they guide that, there definitely won’t be a party at my place in 2024. Less than zero chance. Tell me, if they guide for that what’s the headline? I’ll give you just one guess.

They might as well not guide at all if they’re going to guide that. Headlines will be pretty much the same except everyone and their brother here will be flogging demand problems and I’ll be forced to buy more shares. Do you really want to see me post ‘I told you so’ to all the brothers!?

Tesla ought to try to make the unfair journalists and analysts squirm a little. It would be a bit devious and hilarious for Tesla to make a guidance statement in line with their recent delivery report that grouped the 3/Y in one category, and "Other Models" in another, and just not even predict the "Other" figures (since a lot of that depends on difficult to predict ramps, etc.).

They could use that 2.1M figure, but say:

• "For 2024, we expect to produce and deliver 2.1M Model 3/Y vehicles. We will also continue to increase production and deliveries of Other Models. . "

Just leave it up to all the clever analysts and journalists to try to deal with the winking emoji and attempt to work up a headline without knowing which models or how many units to estimate under "other." Leave a lot of unknowns in there and let them speculate...

 

[wtlloyd]

I struggle with this sort of thing:

How many more of Tesla’s top staff is Elon going to poach to work at his own privately owned companies before the Tesla board stops this BS.

Cross-Pollination :

What is the significance of cross-pollination?

Advantages of cross pollination: The offspring are healthier. The seeds are produced in larger number and are more viable. The seeds develop and germinate properly and grow into better plants.
Is cross-pollination good or bad?
Cross pollination is advantageous because it allows for diversity in the species, as the genetic information of different plants are combined. However, it relies on the existence of pollinators that will travel from plant to plant.

 

[mongo]

I struggle with this sort of thing:

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How many more of Tesla’s top staff is Elon going to poach to work at his own privately owned companies before the Tesla board stops this BS.

What did Noah do at Tesla? Factoryization of a stainless steel vehicle
What skill doesn't Tesla need currently? Factoryization of a stainless steel vehicle
What skill does SpaceX need? Factoryization of a stainless steel vehicle
He's taking his talents to Boca Chica where they'll be best utilized. If Tesla needs help, they know where to find him, just like the metallurgy folk.

 

[NicoV]

I'm not surprised. The Model X is $72,490 after tax credit. It's quite a steal.

Just like the ‘free supercharging transfer’.

 

[NicoV]

Total Model S/X deliveries did come in stronger than expected. Maybe we have Taiwan, China and other Asian countries to thank for that.

Or the free supercharging transfer.
I still think free supercharging will be reintroduced for S/X. It’s much cheaper than lowering the price of those cars.

 

[2daMoon]

I struggle with this sort of thing:

View attachment 1005157

How many more of Tesla’s top staff is Elon going to poach to work at his own privately owned companies before the Tesla board stops this BS.

Oh my goodness!

How many more of SpaceX, Boring, etc. employees are going to contribute to Tesla's success?

Something must be done to halt the sharing of unique and valuable resources between the Musk companies. If they continue like this they will be the only companies left on the planet!

/S​

As I recall, it is a policy with these companies that employees are encouraged to move between them if they want to. That is one of the ADVANTAGES of taking a job with a Musk company.

Heck, even those former Tesla employees offer opportunities, like J.B. and the the recycling business, which will benefit Tesla in the long run.

Clearly, some people are considerably more short-sighted than is Elon.
...and they keep posting just to remind us who they are.

 

[MC3OZ]

It’s going to take awhile for Hyundai to recover from this. This story is rampant everywhere in Canada. And Hyundai Canada is not taking any proactive action. Dealers can charge what they want for batteries. We are seeing Hyundais like up on our local dealership lot. Especially the i6’s.

Sandy Munro commented on this and stated that there probably wasn't a serious issue with the battery. The dealer may be assuming an issue with the battery when there may not be a real issue.

All EVs have shielding to protect the battery built in, it should take a fairly major incident to damage the battery.

 

[MC3OZ]

They did and started making inhouse cells. But that ramp has been .... slow.

IMO 4680 cell production is like reusable rockets, when there is a "perception" that it isn't going well, everyone will criticise it.

When it is finally working well it, will deliver an important strategic advantage, and most will the praise the move.

I'm waiting for an update on the earnings call and I expect some progress.

 

[geometro]

I'm not surprised. The Model X is $72,490 after tax credit. It's quite a steal.

This is confusing to me… if I have <$300k in AGI, why am I spending $72k on a car? Amazing that this happens.

 

[SO16]

This is confusing to me… if I have <$300k in AGI, why am I spending $72k on a car? Amazing that this happens.

People can be retired, have capital gains to cover it and qualify without a high income.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

People can be retired, have capital gains to cover it and qualify without a high income.

Or the "I need to uphold a certain kind of lifestyle to impress everyone" while drowning in debt syndrome.

 

[wipster]

The average Tesla employee often doesn't stay more than two years at Tesla according to some people. There's tons of movement. Your assertions are wildly off the mark. There is regular collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX.

To say he's poaching employees is flat out BS.

I think he forgot the /s as it's obviously referring to the unpaid "poaching" or borrowing of Tesla employees at Twitter/X a few months ago.

 

[wipster]

So why did Tesla deliver over 4,500 more Other Vehicles than they produced in the 4th quarter? Price cuts from existing inventory? Did the ship come in late? Just curious as production exceeds delivery for the entire year...

 

[GhostSkater]

But, I'd wager you did see some Seagulls at the beach.

Indeed, BYD to the moon

 

[ChiefRollo]

What do you think the effect on the stock (all Chinese stocks) would be if China presses on with reunification effort?

 

[ChiefRollo]

People can be retired, have capital gains to cover it and qualify without a high income.

Just curious, what should the % of salary be for the house and the car?

 

[Knightshade]

@Knightshade - I value your contributions to this forum very much - you're a huge plus here

First, thank you for the gracious and kind words- and also the same regarding yourself.

. . . so take this joke the right way.

I always try to!

If I was holding a brainstorming session with the sales and marketing team, I would ask you to exit the room

The brainstorming session would be to answer the following question:
There were 9.6m EVs sold globally in 2023 and we took 1.8m of those sales (19%)
In 2024, there will be 13.3m EVs sold. How do we get 19% of those sales (2.5m units)?
Now Knightshade, please go take a coffee break.

This is why I prefer engineering- not marketing. Where one cares about what can actually be done, not what we want to sound like can be done


The S&P estimate you cite breaks it down by region... interestingly their estimate puts (by far) the largest % growth for 2024 in...the US. Which just practically killed federal EV subsidies with the sourcing changes. They predict a 66.4% YoY increase 23->24... AFAIK '23 estimates are around 1.3M sold in the US, meaning they're calling for about 860,000 more EVs to be sold in 2024 in the US alone.

From whom?

With most legacy pulling BACK on scaling production for 2024 (and GM outright killing the only model it sells that anyone really buys), and even the most optimistic such as yourself calling for Tesla to only increase by about 700k worldwide where are those 860k additional BEVs in the US alone coming from?

Look worldwide though- 9.6M this year- 13.3M next year. That's 3.7 million more EVs that someone needs to make. Again assuming your optimistic 700k for Tesla is right, where do the other 3 million come from? BYD was only 1.6M BEVs this year. Even with 50% YoY growth that only gets you 800k of the 3M you need.


So it's not that I think Tesla is going to lose market share-- it's that I find the idea companies who are NOT Tesla are going to magically make 3 million extra EVs next year to be...unlikely?

And once you accept the 13.3M isn't realistic based on the stated near-term intent of nearly every player who isn't Tesla or BYD, you easily reach the set of math where Tesla doesn't lose market share even when they "only" produce a more realistic 2-2.1M for 2024.

Instead I expect EV sales growth to be lower than S&P seems to suggest-- largely because we're finally reaching the point where it's obvious only a very few companies are serious about increasing the supply of them- and even they have certain constraints around pricing and battery sourcing.



BTW for a contrasting prediction on growth-

Ford halves 2024 electric F-150 production plans on slowing demand

Ford is cutting 2024 production goals in half for its F-150 Lightning EV pickup truck on slowing demand for battery-powered models. Read on.

financialpost.com

They cite UBS predicting 2024 US BEV growth at only 11% (and I'd expect most of that to be Tesla- but that won't get you remotely near 700k extra sales)