Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Uhm, selling calls and buying puts doesn't liberate any cash though

Right, but he wants security of capital, that's the Puts. But doesn't have the cash to buy them, that's selling the calls. Would have to read the greeks and worksheet to know if its worth it vs just selling the shares now at Market. Again, none of this is advice.

 

[Christine69420]

Really? Mine is terrible for rattles/creaks over bumps, and Tesla seem unable to do anything about it

Well I have had the suspension serviced - some parts replaced. Brake pads. New vipers. Ordinary wear and tear I think.

And once they came to my house since the door would not lock.

Just before it came out of warranty Tesla replaced the rear spoiler which had some rust. And a couple of other nitpicks.

It is more comfy than the Y. But the Y feels quicker. And is more new and modern. I find the Y more noisy than the X.

 

[unk45]

It was even worse than that: retail shareholdes were barred from purchasing $GME but they were allowed to sell it. This broke the back of the short squeeze, since it was clearly an one-sided deal, condoned by both the Market and the SEC. This episode took out hedge fund Melvin Capital, even after a $2.75B cash injection from Citadel and Point72.

Congress responded by holding hearings (which found nothing, changed nothing). The SEC took action against a dozen social media influencers (who in their view were the problem). And thus the system was preserved unchanged. They preserved their unchallenged right to short sell more shares than exist in a company, and ultimately to prevent others from buying while they cover. Supply'n'Demand? That's for the rabble, not the rulers. Dispicable. Literal despots.

Sadly some of us do not understand the reality of naked shorting, legally done. worse some of us don’t understand that even when market makers brake their very, very lenient rules by false reporting, they blame ’computer glitches’ or some such and even if deemed to have violated rules they’re penalized a trivial amount, rarelynexceedingba coulple of hours worth of ill-gotten gains.

As usual the only way to consistently win with TSLA is to HODL. Then reevaluate over five years or so, not much less is reliable.

 

[joh01652]

This afternoon when I read that Tesla is now offering POS US tax credits, I leaped off my chair and drove to the local Tesla store and bought a LR Y. Although I'd seen $5,000 discounts before on LR Y's, today was the first time I saw this on LR Y's with no options. So a great EV at a great price. They're 2023's though, so a lower value if I trade it in on my CT.

FYI Tesla no longer offers existing-customer discounts (I have Tesla solar) or CT discounts.

I also learned that you can't buy a Tesla unless you have a working phone with a Tesla app. The salesman said they cannot use one of their computers, and downloading the app onto my years-old phone that Verizon gave me for free was not successful. So I have to buy a phone to complete the purchase process.

I wonder if next year the IRS will not allow the credit and require customers to repay the $7500 through their income tax payment. Seems plausible to me. Retroactivity like this would be illegal, but who cares.

Do you have a home computer you can use to purchase? I purchased two Teslas with a laptop through my Tesla account, never needed a phone.

It is annoying though to need a phone for things like service--wish I could also schedule service via laptop through the Tesla account. I have a 2016 iphone with a small screen and its not as easy/convenient as a laptop.

 

[mongo]

Do you have a home computer you can use to purchase? I purchased two Teslas with a laptop through my Tesla account, never needed a phone.

It is annoying though to need a phone for things like service--wish I could also schedule service via laptop through the Tesla account. I have a 2016 iphone with a small screen and its not as easy/convenient as a laptop.

How long ago were those purchases?
Website allows ordering, but everything after that gets one redirected to the app. As I understand it, pickup is app based also.
Mobile:

Non-mobile:

 

[joh01652]

How long ago were those purchases?
Website allows ordering, but everything after that gets one redirected to the app. As I understand it, pickup is app based also.
Mobile:
View attachment 1008523
Non-mobile:
View attachment 1008524

Early 2019 and early 2020. A good chance I'll be getting an X this year, and if not this year next year for sure--will probably get a new iphone if everything is forced through the app as my current phone is so old I can't "see" entire webpages because of formatting constraints or something. I'm not a tech savvy person, just guessing. Maybe the problem is just me, ha.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Spread it around is what I would do. My account does not support options. But I sometimes get helpful info on timing my sales from that other thread.

I had some BIG bills/projects due so I decided to sell around recent high and then again around 250-260 (as time was pressing and FUD seemed high). I put limit orders in a bit above current price and wait for a spike, rinse and repeat. This is on UK ISA account with no possibilities of anything more sophisticated.

 

[Tony73]

I was just talking to my friends and they think other companies and especially China will have FSD shortly after Tesla solves it because of corporate espionage. From what I understand is they can’t steal the data to train the AI because Tesla would have that on offline servers? However, could they steal the already trained FSD AI from the Tesla cars and use that software in their cars?

That’s not going to happen in North America or Europe. It’s just not worth the legal ramifications. No serious player in China with global ambitions is going to do that either.

Stealing advanced technology requires a level of competence that is around 90% of the original developer. The number of players with the financial and technical wherewithal to “steal FSD” will be better off hiring Tesla employees and attempting to bridge the gap themselves.

 

[cliff harris]

If you needed to sell a significant amount in the 1 to 3 months window, uncertain for now, what strategy would you guys do? Just sell the amount you need and be done with it? Wait for earnings, with the small possibility of having to sell less shares, or more lol

I would definitely wait a while, after earnings for sure, but I would try to include as much of the cybertruck ramp as possible.
The ramp of the CT seems to be going very well, there have been no big embarrassing failures, no bad reviews, no obvious design problems or recalls. The CT release, and the highland update both seem to have gone surprisingly well, given Tesla's often chaotic history.

I think it takes a while for the implications of highland and CT to be visible to wall st. The stock feels unusually pushed down to me at the moment. I think Q4 earnings will likely be a tad better than expected, but I also suspect this years guidance to be good.
So hard to predict though.

 

[elasalle]

It was posted on the CT forum:
Apparently a relatively easy issue for a SC to fix according to some there, but obviously it should have been caught.

Of course it warrants a headline...It's the most polarizing truck ever. I'm sure electrek was ecstatic to find it and post about it.


View attachment 1008385

https://www.cybertruckownersclub.com/forum/threads/my-cybertruck-is-delivered-today-january-11-non-employee-%F0%9F%91%8D-first-impressions-photos-%F0%9F%93%B8.11364/

UPDATE ON THE PANEL GAP:

Ok, it seems there is a lot of debate regarding the quarter panel gap photo I took yesterday. So I took a few more photos and measured the gap. In my own opinion, I can't really tell unless I put my face into it, I met another forum user today and he agrees that it doesn't look bad at all.
(new pic included, Fredo's article was clickbait)

 

[cliff harris]

TBH the kind of idiots who are constantly yelling PANEL GAPS! about a Tesla are not going to buy one anyway. They are either hardcore ICE cultists, or people who will buy an F150 to 'stick it to Elon'.
I'm not shaking in my boots at the prospects of poor cybertruck sales... no matter how long fred lambert holds his childish grudge against Tesla.

 

[insaneoctane]

The competition is coming...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1746099010845225106

 

[hydro]

TBH the kind of idiots who are constantly yelling PANEL GAPS! about a Tesla are not going to buy one anyway. They are either hardcore ICE cultists, or people who will buy an F150 to 'stick it to Elon'.
I'm not shaking in my boots at the prospects of poor cybertruck sales... no matter how long fred lambert holds his childish grudge against Tesla.

i stopped reading that site a while back Wokism at it's best.

 

[Tony73]

TBH the kind of idiots who are constantly yelling PANEL GAPS! about a Tesla are not going to buy one anyway. They are either hardcore ICE cultists, or people who will buy an F150 to 'stick it to Elon'.
I'm not shaking in my boots at the prospects of poor cybertruck sales... no matter how long fred lambert holds his childish grudge against Tesla.

Both things can be true; People with an agenda yell about panel gaps and Tesla sometimes drops the ball on QC. That car should never have passed final inspection.

 

[LuckyManX]

Since it's the weekend, I'll offer up a helping of positive news that relates to Tesla's initial mission of transitioning to EVs - but specifically addressing EV charging in the U. S. I especially enjoyed the video clip of President Biden actually speaking the word TESLA for the first time! YAY!!!

Pete Buttigieg says 'electric vehicle revolution' is here as White House scrambles to build nationwide charging network with $623 million grant program

... and in my local geography:

Port Angeles gets $2M to install EV chargers

(MODS: feel free to move this post to the charging / infrastructure forum if you feel that is a better location)

CHEERS! (and HODL)

 

[totoro722]

Do you have a home computer you can use to purchase? I purchased two Teslas with a laptop through my Tesla account, never needed a phone.

It is annoying though to need a phone for things like service--wish I could also schedule service via laptop through the Tesla account. I have a 2016 iphone with a small screen and its not as easy/convenient as a laptop.

The app runs on an iPad, which gives you a keyboard and larger screen to see everything. The app does everything on the iPad that it does on a phone. That is how I use my app for the most part.

 

[Rarity]

One small news item over the past week that is interesting is the Palo Alto substation upgrades for which Tesla is splitting the costs with the city and is paying contractors to have the project expedited.

Normally, electricity infrastructure upgrades have a very long lead time. For this project, Tesla will be managing the work and hopes to have it done in April. My guess is that Tesla is in a tremendous hurry in order to bring an AI datacenter on line at its Engineering HQ. Hats off to the city for willing to move so quickly and opportunistically. I think so often about the weaknesses of the West and California in particular in getting things done in the world of atoms. But this process gives me a little bit of hope for the future on that score.

I am also watching out for large Tesla AI datacenters in Austin and Reno. I am unaware of any concrete plans or breaking ground, but I would be surprised not to see it in the near future, given that these locations are where Tesla has the most electricity infrastructure and land availability.

As Palo Alto prepares to upgrade grid, Tesla races to the front of the line

Palo Alto and Tesla are preparing to strike a deal that would allow the car giant to complete a $24-million substation upgrade to aid its new engineering headquarters in Stanford Research Park.

www.paloaltoonline.com

 

[kengchang]

CT AWD VIN assigned. High 700s

 

[LuckyManX]

The app runs on an iPad, which gives you a keyboard and larger screen to see everything. The app does everything on the iPad that it does on a phone. That is how I use my app for the most part.

Thanks for making us aware of the alternative. Sadly, it isn't available for ChromeBooks - yet. I tried to send an email request to the developers via [email protected] but apparently they no longer monitor that addy.

 

[Musskiah]

This is coming from someone who never sold a single share (other than a fraction of one long ago to buy a single share of GME, but we don’t talk about that)

If you needed to sell a significant amount in the 1 to 3 months window, uncertain for now, what strategy would you guys do? Just sell the amount you need and be done with it? Wait for earnings, with the small possibility of having to sell less shares, or more lol

Spread around the sells daily, weekly?

Doesn’t matter much, while it isn’t close to my whole portfolio, it’s a significant amount, maybe 1/4 to 1/3 of it (which honestly isn’t much because I’m a tiny fish)

*NOT ADVICE, JUST THINKING ALOUD*

Historically speaking over the last 5 years, the early Feb thru early Mar timeframe has been a great time to sell TSLA stock or options. We tend to see relative maxima of sort of a few months duration land in this timeframe. One very strong reason for this is that TSLA, being the biggest options play on Wall Street for ohhhhh a decade now, tends to be very heavy in the LEAPS department; the price action gets suppressed until after 3rd week in Jan expiry. Selling in Jan isn't probably the best timing.

Secondly, from a TA perspective: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is entering extremely oversold territory now, and we are below the 200 DMA, and riding the lower Bollinger Band hard. Translation: selling soon isn't probably the best timing.

Lastly, Momma Cathie just backed up the Brinks truck to buy $25M in shares. This is another indication we are probably at a relative minimum, so a good time to buy is probably an indication that it is a poor time to sell.

If I were to sell (NOT ADVICE), I would not sell at all until at least mid Feb to give the SP time to get above the 200DMA (hopefully the 100:50:30[mid-bollinger band]) as well as above 50RSI. If I could wait longer, I may consider it depending on how the setup looks then. If I was getting near the time I had to sell in Feb, I would probably only sell a third of that which I intended, then reevaluate market sentiment and technical indicators at that time. We should have a much better feel after Elon delivers his Tesla talk after the 10k.

Just IMHO...