I think they will be a lot smaller by the time they fail.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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I think they will be a lot smaller by the time they fail.
Well, 4680 are simply a form factor. Tesla buys cells from suppliers, from Panasonic, LG, CATL and even BYD. I, for one, worry (a bit) about BYD in Europe, it seems they bought a lot of RoRo ships to flood the European market.
We'll see how it goes, but China is definitely not stading idle on the battery and EV side.
I'm with you on this - long term I think they'll kill it still, but I personally don't see much in 2024 to move the stock up - of course Wally Street might decide to let it rip for their own purposes and to wipe out various option traders, but from the Tesla, fundamentals side, it doesn't look great to me
All that being said, I am looking too build back up to my previous TSLA position, around 10k shares, but rather than buying big lots of 1000x, 2000x, as I have done in the past, I'm more inclined to grow my cash pile in the short term, up to a specific goal I have in mind, then start buying weekly TSLA off the options profits I make
This seems like a lower-risk strategy going forwards and I have an 18 month estimate for achieving that, adding around 100x TSLA weekly
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Just to be clear, there's no new info in this patent document. There's some new claims to the method of manufacture, but the original disclosure, with all the same figures and identical description was published in October 2015 (US 2015/0303481- Maxwell Technologies Inc). The subject patent is a divisional of the Maxwell application. The Divisional itself was published in July 2020. So new patent claims but no new info. This patent attempts to claim the method using slightly different terms. The original patent has claims to the product in addition to method claims. Still cool though
these things will only be profitable if they come around 5000$ and if you let them work as a co-bot. where the last handeling is done by a human. So there can be more focus on hospitality and less on running around.
Maybe the absence of reasons for the stock to go down may move it up. I see no big negatives in 2024:
- The Model Y Juniper refresh should be less impactful on the production (compared to Highland)
- No-one expects a giant Cybertruck ramp.
On the other hand, there may be lots of small positive things:
- The price decreases may be (more than) compensated by material costs going down (I saw a post yesterday showing battery materials being down +3% in december 2023 alone)
- Ongoing ramp of utility scale storage
- Maybe a new halo car (Roadster)
- Giant subsidies (certainly in Europe) for upgrading old supercharger sites to V4, with the corresponding extra usage by non-Tesla cars.
- Being on the steep part of the S-curve in many countries.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
One potential positive for margins in 2024:
Not expecting too much magic for FSD v12.1.1, but if end-to-end really does bring some significant improvements to smoothness and reduction in unnecessary braking with v12 builds—even if not perfect—we could start seeing significant uptake in FSD revenue this year.
For all cars, this is near 100% GM. And the other benefit is that many cars in the existing fleet could buy it or subscribe, which again is nearly 100% additional margin.
This could have a significant impact on Tesla’s auto margins. Imagine 15% of Tesla’s vehicles instantly tripling or quadrupling their profits.
FSD doesn’t need to be autonomous to have an impact on valuations. A dramatic-enough improvement some time in v12 in just usability could yield a 500 or more basis point improvement in auto margins.
And if it gets that good, then the chance of other OEMs licensing the tech improves greatly as well.
The expected general drop in interest rates this year should help with demand and margins too.
Let’s also not forget the continued energy ramp, which analysts continue to not properly factor into their estimates.
Not expecting too much magic for FSD v12.1.1, but if end-to-end really does bring some significant improvements to smoothness and reduction in unnecessary braking with v12 builds—even if not perfect—we could start seeing significant uptake in FSD revenue this year.
For all cars, this is near 100% GM. And the other benefit is that many cars in the existing fleet could buy it or subscribe, which again is nearly 100% additional margin.
This could have a significant impact on Tesla’s auto margins. Imagine 15% of Tesla’s vehicles instantly tripling or quadrupling their profits.
FSD doesn’t need to be autonomous to have an impact on valuations. A dramatic-enough improvement some time in v12 in just usability could yield a 500 or more basis point improvement in auto margins.
And if it gets that good, then the chance of other OEMs licensing the tech improves greatly as well.
The expected general drop in interest rates this year should help with demand and margins too.
Let’s also not forget the continued energy ramp, which analysts continue to not properly factor into their estimates.
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I still can't wrap my head around why, between all the years it could lift off, TSLA "chose" 2020. It's an irrational stock to say the least.
So maybe a uneventful year like 2024 is the right one ;-).
To play devil's advocate:
- more price cuts
- margin decrease
- low/no guidance
- delay of compact car
- FSD continues to drag
- Elon sells
- Elon tweets
- Elon leaves Tesla
- Elon something something something
etc.
Add: 4680 failing to ramp up
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
That's crazy talk. If that were to even be possible, Tesla would have to have been accumulating "in-tunnel" driving data somewhere for over a year... oh, wait.
The Accountant
Active Member
The consecutive string of Free Cash Flow began with Q2 2020 and with that came consistent profits leading to S&P 500 entry and a stock split.
I think what happened in 2020 was the realization that Tesla turned the corner and was going to make it (not go bankrupt) along with interest rates dropping.
What is about to happen now is the realization that EVs are unstoppable (as the EV market continues to grow) and that Tesla and one Chinese auto maker are going to take much market share. With the Great OEM Pause of 2023, the competition
Also, Tesla's Energy business will sneak up on Tesla bears . . . .alone justifying a significant portion of Tesla's market cap.
FSD, AI, Robotics will be Realization III and IV.
The key of course is access to batteries. Tesla needs to execute well here.
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considering the logic you quote these two points seem, on the surface, to be valid, but they are at best misleading.
Cinese OEM’s are quite definitely almost obsessed with foreign OEM’s. Why? Quoting a single example, SAIC:
SAIC Plans To Establish EV Manufacturing Site In Europe
State-owned Chinese automaker SAIC says it plans to build a manufacturing site in Europe. SAIC also works with GM and VW to build cars for the Chinese market.
insideevs.com
BYD began by producing batteries for cellular phones but now supplies batteries for Mercedes Benz, Toyota and, of course, Tesla:
The point of these two links is to illustrate how myopic Western views have been. Not just these things but also BYD electric busses in major cities, delivered with charging and support infrastructure. A gigantic difference between Chinese approach and Western approach is the core fact that in the late 1970’s China had virtually no electrical grid, poor infrastructure in every respect. When I first went to China officially, in 1978, there were almost no hotels, the official guest house in which I stayed had electricity, from a creaky ancient generator, and almost no motorized traffic in Beijing. Thirty years later they had a state-of-the-art high voltage electrical grid, a monorail with ~400kph from the city to a modern airport.
That paragraph is to illustrate that the Chinese are doing the same all over the second and third world. Few even see it happening. Smart, well-informed Brazilians, for example, think the Chinese are not leading in EV infrastructure. For sure, They have not yet installed mass chargers. They have been building the national electrical structure to support not only BEVs but also mass deployment of solar and wind power plus renovation and modernization of hydroelectric too. Most of that is invisible to almost everyone:
For those who know Brazil, note that Belo Monte is finally getting Chinese support:
This Brazil-centric post is intended to illustrate what is now, and has been for years, happening, much of it under the Belt and Road global infrastructure context.
All of us need to understand that Tesla is, and has been, both a motive force and a benficiary of these developments. As all this has been happening much of the world has protested, claiming industrial espionage and unfair competition. I am old enough to remember such assertions about West Germany first, then Japan next, then South Korea, now China. Each of those deployed every advantage they could find to develop quickly and improve quality of life.
Tesla is one of a tiny number of US based companies that really understands these issues, influenced by Elon’s childhood in South Africa and many other Tesla executives whose backgrounds were from India and other places. Their common denominator is a compulsive dedication to the corporate mission.
Yes, Tesla will send Tesla Energy first, build Superchargers and deliver vehicles. No, we are not likely to hear details soon. After all, the investment community simply cannot imagine the future. They cannot even understand the present.
Just in case we are missing the reality. India, Indonesia, Brazil and many others are coming. Exactly what each will look like we cannot know.
There is one blatantly obvious clue; Starlink! Building a true global information access system harkens back to State Grid.
I don't disagree, of course, but 2020 will be remembered in history as the as the year of the pandemic. Maybe we forget (it's an interesting psychological phenomenon...) but those were unprecedented uncertain times. I live in Italy and I was lock down in my own home for *months*. Nothing of sort has happened in centuries, on a global scale.
So, while I agree with you on fundamentals, macro was incredibly *weird*.
Johann Koeber
Happy Owner
In my immediate neighborhood there are Taycans, Volvo, BMWs plus a Fiat 500E and a couple Peugeot e208. Those are there ones I've noticed. The eight L2 chargers in my favorite shopping center are full nearly all the time with those models and some others. There are BYD, JAC and a few other Chinese ones appearing, but their stores are seeing traffic every time i pass them.
My Volvo dealer is thrilled with their lineup, and thus far they still seem to be the sales leader.
Indeed, it's time for Tesla (sorry for really bad CHAdeMo pun. FWIW, all the Leaf's and i3's seem to have evaporated after their early start.
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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Dillon Loomis does a good job collecting information to debunk the CNPost FUD on 4680s:
Tesla Expands 4680 Capacity | Electrified with Dillion Loomis (Jan 18, 2024)
Supporting info from Austin Drone pilot Joe Tegtmeyer, who told us 2 weeks ago to expect a switch in cathode materials at Giga Texas. Yesterday he reported a single-day record for 4680 cell production.
Cheers to the Longs!
Tesla Expands 4680 Capacity | Electrified with Dillion Loomis (Jan 18, 2024)
Supporting info from Austin Drone pilot Joe Tegtmeyer, who told us 2 weeks ago to expect a switch in cathode materials at Giga Texas. Yesterday he reported a single-day record for 4680 cell production.
Cheers to the Longs!
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It won't be this year sadly. Lathrop has not scaled up production from 20 GWh annual run rate it has been at for the most of the year. Meaning average quarterly amount "delivered" can only be 5 GWh, which only 25% higher than what was recognized in Q3. Since there is big delay between production and recognition, there isn't going to be any uptick from that 5 GWh in any quarter of 2024 even if Lathrop or Shanghai start higher production in Q1/Q2.
While margins will improve, at these levels the gross profit contribution of Energy is small. Maybe half a billion in gross profit?
Increasing gross profit a few hundred million per quarter (maybe $0.1 in EPS at best) is definitely nice, but not going to shock the market.
Again maybe later this year when the market realizes Tesla Energy will have those same high margins with 3X in revenues coming in 2025 will for EPS revisions upwards. Don't see it happening now.
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