Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[larmor]

To play devil's advocate:
- more price cuts
- margin decrease
- low/no guidance
- delay of compact car
- FSD continues to drag
- Elon sells
- Elon tweets
- Elon leaves Tesla
- Elon something something something

etc.

Also, Its Monday or Friday or any weekday after 10 am EST.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Post after post I"m reading doom and gloom. This is bullish because if you all represent the sentiment of investors out there, fewer bets are being made. "They" (house) knows this, they see the well is drying up, and may change direction. (Said my crystal ball)

 

[2daMoon]

Here is a really good SMR view of all the data showing the many aspects of the Green Tidal Wave growing in the EV space. Plenty of charts and analysis from around the globe demonstrating the continuing exponential growth of this sector.

For anyone feeling down over the recent SP movement, this should boost morale knowing we HODLers are riding the big wave.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Here is a really good SMR view of all the data showing the many aspects of the Green Tidal Wave growing in the EV space. Plenty of charts and analysis from around the globe demonstrating the continuing exponential growth of this sector.

For anyone feeling down over the recent SP movement, this should boost morale knowing we HODLers are riding the big wave.

Time heals everything, when it hits, it will be glorious.

 

[Mengy]

I'm with you on this - long term I think they'll kill it still, but I personally don't see much in 2024 to move the stock up

I've been saying for a while now I think 2024 will largely be a "flat" year for the stock. A foundation year where Tesla lays the framework for excellent growth going forward, but financially an underwhelming year.

Factors I think will hold TSLA down in 2024:
- Further price cuts and lowering margins.
- A low guidance year (I'm expecting Tesla to guide for only 2.1 million production in 2024).
- CT ramp will be very slow due to 4680 ramp also being slow. Something like 80K CT's sold in 2024.
- A declining overall auto market will put negative pressure on TSLA by association.
- The economy overall will get worse before it gets better, and the Fed likely won't begin lowering rates until close to year's end.
- Tesla Energy ramp will be nice production wise but financially minor for 2024.
- FSD will probably improve but won't add much financially in 2024.
- No substantial semi production in 2024.

I still think we'll see a lot of positives for Tesla in 2024, I just don't think they'll impact TSLA at all in this year:
- We'll likely see the Gen3 Compact Tesla revealed by year's end, probably within the last two months. (no production until 2025 at the earliest tho)
- Optimus bots will probably begin testing in Tesla factories in 2024.
- Optimus progress will be substantial in 2024, but still remain in prototype phase.
- MY refresh will be super popular, but not a big adder due to existing production lines being close to maxed out.
- More states will get Tesla Insurance in 2024.
- At least one new factory location announced in 2024, possibly two.
- Giga Mexico construction likely to begin in 2024.


These are just me expectations for 2024, I certainly don't have a crystal ball or anything. I personally doubt TSLA crosses over $300 in 2024, maybe towards the EoY we get close to there again. I do think we'll cross the ATH again of $415 in 2025 though.

 

[Drax7]

As the Spartan ephors once told Phillip II.... If.

I expect FSD to be less iffy all the time.

Chat GPT and Bard can write me a love letter in the style of Hemingway
or Fitzgerald in 20 seconds of less. Writing seems a lot tougher than driving
my car to the supermarket.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I expect FSD to be less iffy all the time.

Tesla FSD Team's new stated goal!

 

[Paul_SF]

I expect FSD to be less iffy all the time.

Chat GPT and Bard can write me a love letter in the style of Hemingway
or Fitzgerald in 20 seconds of less. Writing seems a lot tougher than driving
my car to the supermarket.

obviously is not, as you can get multiple LLMs to write that but no software to 100% drive your car to the supermarket. yet.

 

[Knightshade]

obviously is not, as you can get multiple LLMs to write that but no software to 100% drive your car to the supermarket. yet.

Plus the LLMs still hallucinate fake things all the time-- FSD doing that would be...bad.

 

[CHGolferJim]

I've been saying for a while now I think 2024 will largely be a "flat" year for the stock. A foundation year where Tesla lays the framework for excellent growth going forward, but financially an underwhelming year.

Factors I think will hold TSLA down in 2024:
- Further price cuts and lowering margins.
- A low guidance year (I'm expecting Tesla to guide for only 2.1 million production in 2024).
- CT ramp will be very slow due to 4680 ramp also being slow. Something like 80K CT's sold in 2024.
- A declining overall auto market will put negative pressure on TSLA by association.
- The economy overall will get worse before it gets better, and the Fed likely won't begin lowering rates until close to year's end.
- Tesla Energy ramp will be nice production wise but financially minor for 2024.
- FSD will probably improve but won't add much financially in 2024.
- No substantial semi production in 2024.

I still think we'll see a lot of positives for Tesla in 2024, I just don't think they'll impact TSLA at all in this year:
- We'll likely see the Gen3 Compact Tesla revealed by year's end, probably within the last two months. (no production until 2025 at the earliest tho)
- Optimus bots will probably begin testing in Tesla factories in 2024.
- Optimus progress will be substantial in 2024, but still remain in prototype phase.
- MY refresh will be super popular, but not a big adder due to existing production lines being close to maxed out.
- More states will get Tesla Insurance in 2024.
- At least one new factory location announced in 2024, possibly two.
- Giga Mexico construction likely to begin in 2024.


These are just me expectations for 2024, I certainly don't have a crystal ball or anything. I personally doubt TSLA crosses over $300 in 2024, maybe towards the EoY we get close to there again. I do think we'll cross the ATH again of $415 in 2025 though.

Largely agree, to me if WS ever begins to move from the “prove it to me first“ mentality, there would be a step up. Suppose such a change will be gradual, and granted the divergence from our convictions provides great opportunity. Perhaps 2025 is when it will kick in.

 

[gtrplyr1]

Really considering liquidating most of my position, I’ve lost well into 7 figures from the highs and I see lower margins and more Elon issues on the horizon.

It’s been an amazing run but this company is run by a mental patient and I don’t have any faith in him short term. Teslas long term is bright but I fear a lot of pain in the next 2 years.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Really considering liquidating most of my position, I’ve lost well into 7 figures from the highs and I see lower margins and more Elon issues on the horizon.

It’s been an amazing run but this company is run by a mental patient and I don’t have any faith in him short term. Teslas long term is bright but I fear a lot of pain in the next 2 years.

Follow your convictions. Please

 

[Krugerrand]

Really considering liquidating most of my position, I’ve lost well into 7 figures from the highs and I see lower margins and more Elon issues on the horizon.

It’s been an amazing run but this company is run by a mental patient and I don’t have any faith in him short term. Teslas long term is bright but I fear a lot of pain in the next 2 years.

You should definitely do it.

Who’s next?

 

[Drax7]

Plus the LLMs still hallucinate fake things all the time-- FSD doing that would be...bad.

hallucinating by believing green is red, or 65mph is actually 165 mph,
or drive means reverse. You are on to something.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Maybe the absence of reasons for the stock to go down may move it up. I see no big negatives in 2024:
- The Model Y Juniper refresh should be less impactful on the production (compared to Highland)
- No-one expects a giant Cybertruck ramp.
On the other hand, there may be lots of small positive things:
- The price decreases may be (more than) compensated by material costs going down (I saw a post yesterday showing battery materials being down +3% in december 2023 alone)
- Ongoing ramp of utility scale storage
- Maybe a new halo car (Roadster)
- Giant subsidies (certainly in Europe) for upgrading old supercharger sites to V4, with the corresponding extra usage by non-Tesla cars.
- Being on the steep part of the S-curve in many countries.

Pictures of an Optimus "horde" would make a stir.

 

[Mengy]

Really considering liquidating most of my position, I’ve lost well into 7 figures from the highs and I see lower margins and more Elon issues on the horizon.

It’s been an amazing run but this company is run by a mental patient and I don’t have any faith in him short term. Teslas long term is bright but I fear a lot of pain in the next 2 years.

If there is one thing I've learned in my decades of investing experience, it is this:

Everyone needs to invest how they are comfortable with, and not everyone can HODL successfully. Personally, my conviction in Tesla becoming a massively much more valuable company years from now is strong enough for me to ride the roller coaster. I'm willing to hold on during the dips to see the new highs. If you don't want to then VOO is always a very nice alternative.

The problem with selling with the intention to buy back in later on is....no one can predict the future with perfect timing. I never thought TSLA would moon in late 2019 but it did, and luckily I was already prepared for it. I don't want to miss the next TSLA moon shot, it is coming.

 

[hobbes]

Really considering liquidating most of my position, I’ve lost well into 7 figures from the highs and I see lower margins and more Elon issues on the horizon.

It’s been an amazing run but this company is run by a mental patient and I don’t have any faith in him short term. Teslas long term is bright but I fear a lot of pain in the next 2 years.

If you think things will be better in 2 years, you should be keeping most of your position until then (if personal circumstances allow).

 

[aubreymcfato]

Really considering liquidating most of my position, I’ve lost well into 7 figures from the highs and I see lower margins and more Elon issues on the horizon.

It’s been an amazing run but this company is run by a mental patient and I don’t have any faith in him short term. Teslas long term is bright but I fear a lot of pain in the next 2 years.

I've been very, very critical of Musk in the last few years, but mainly for all the things unrelated to Tesla.
I don't think he's being a bad CEO of Tesla: at least, my critiques are always for omission and not commission, meaning I really wish he spent more time working his ass off on the Semi instead of trolling on X.
I still think Tesla is a great company, and will be even if Musk decides to leave (which I don't think he'll do).
He'll still be a bit of a liability (especially short-term), but not for Tesla-related decisions, IMHO.

 

[2daMoon]

Really considering liquidating most of my position, I’ve lost well into 7 figures from the highs and I see lower margins and more Elon issues on the horizon.

It’s been an amazing run but this company is run by a mental patient and I don’t have any faith in him short term. Teslas long term is bright but I fear a lot of pain in the next 2 years.

Any excuse is a good excuse. Right?

Out of curiosity, where would you put it instead?

 

[30seconds]

I’m not sure we will see Gen3 announcement until the end of the year.

Given BYD / Chinese capabilities there will likely be a Gen3 clone on the market within 12 months from announcement. Tesla needs to be much closer to production before laying out the road for the competition.