Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Electroman]

Repeat after me: "Price cuts are GOOD"

A price cut is simply a reflection of two things:

- where the market is today (no. of consumers with the required buying power).
- Tesla getting more efficient in supply chain and manufacturing

Short terms pressures on margins and such are not something to lose sleep over. Tesla should be singularly focused on reducing the price - Yes I said that - while keeping an acceptable margin. And keep increasing Superchargers and Service Centers. That is the playbook for this year and next.

 

[hobbes]

I've been very, very critical of Musk in the last few years, but mainly for all the things unrelated to Tesla.
I don't think he's being a bad CEO of Tesla: at least, my critiques are always for omission and not commission, meaning I really wish he spent more time working his ass off on the Semi instead of trolling on X.
I still think Tesla is a great company, and will be even if Musk decides to leave (which I don't think he'll do).
He'll still be a bit of a liability (especially short-term), but not for Tesla-related decisions, IMHO.

With regard to Elon staying at Tesla or not: While watching the electrified podcast (thanks for some of you mentioning it as a replacement for Tesla Daily), I realized that the discussion about Elon´s new incentive package going on makes it more likely he will be staying for another 10 years or so (assuming he and the board agree on one, which I believe).

 

[aubreymcfato]

I’m not sure we will see Gen3 announcement until the end of the year.

Given BYD / Chinese capabilities there will likely be a Gen3 clone on the market within 12 months from announcement. Tesla needs to be much closer to production before laying out the road for the competition.

Especially because it seems Chinese competition is dipping its toes in Gigacastings... (I follow this account on X and it's very informative)

https://twitter.com/lucagrecoita

 

[gtrplyr1]

Any excuse is a good excuse. Right?

Out of curiosity, where would you put it instead?

Not sure. Probably AAPl, which will never have the kind of monumental gains TSLA is capable of but then again I don't have to wake up every day and worry.

I reached my 12 Million goal about 2 years ago when TSLA was at ATH, I'm kicking myself for not following my initial plan and selling at that point and putting the money into a safe diversified, boring portfolio that would give me 6-8% a year.

It's tough to watch this happen and I'm probably just getting TSLA fatigue. I still think it's a great company with the best products but the stock and the company have been pretty disconnected.

Upcoming earnings with possible lower margins could spell a lot of trouble for the stock, then again, we just took a pretty big haircut since the beginning of the year so that might be baked in. Any decision on my part involves a lot of possible taxes so I'm trying to really think this through.

 

[hitchhiker]

obviously is not, as you can get multiple LLMs to write that but no software to 100% drive your car to the supermarket. yet.

but you can get several LLMs to write about that trip to the supermarket.

 

[mad474]

Since I can't contribute anything really intelligent or more informative here at the moment, I just wanted to let you people know that I have bought a total of 110 shares within the last 7 days, most recently 60 shares today at an average price of EUR 193 (~ USD 210). And if it continues like this, I'll be really rich afterwards. Embarrassing for such a green-ecological sock! (/s)

 

[hobbes]

Survey of Grünheide residents on Giga Berlin expansion for logistics area (freight station, logistics, storage, kindergarten; this is not about the factory expansion itself where trees already have been cut) started this week. Outcome is not legally binding, but likely to significantly influence the decision.

Tesla Gigafactory Grünheide: Bürgerbefragung zu Erweiterung – wann Ergebnis feststeht

In Grünheide ist die Bürgerbefragung zur umstrittenen Erweiterung der Gigafactory von Tesla gestartet. Woher Einwohner die Unterlagen bekommen und wann das Ergebnis feststeht.

www-moz-de.translate.goog

 

[2daMoon]

Repeat after me: "Price cuts are GOOD"

A price cut is simply a reflection of two things:

- where the market is today (no. of consumers with the required buying power).
- Tesla getting more efficient in supply chain and manufacturing

Short terms pressures on margins and such are not something to lose sleep over. Tesla should be singularly focused on reducing the price - Yes I said that - while keeping an acceptable margin. And keep increasing Superchargers and Service Centers. That is the playbook for this year and next.

To put it more succinctly,

it is all but a part of the (Master) plan.​

Constantly amazed by people misunderstanding this, as Elon told the world well over a decade ago that this is exactly what Tesla intends to do. STILL, analysts and investors postulate upon how Tesla consistently lowering prices is a sign of weakness, rather than realize how it is actually a sign of dominance when you do exactly what you said you were gonna do year after year after year.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Plus the LLMs still hallucinate fake things all the time-- FSD doing that would be...bad.

I learned why LLMs hallucinate (assuming I actually get it). I'm only posting this bc I had the same concerns for FSD. Plus, I was curious why/how LLMs made stuff up, especially when I saw it with my own eyes. I even shared some of that BS on this forum, lol it was so convincing too.

Spoiler: To Tell the Truth

Since LLMs are told to pick ONLY the next word, sometimes they make a poor choice (conflicting info) and this sets up the problem. It is then forced, word by word, to select words that aren't so likely. It literally corners itself into a lie by using false information out there. No surprise - the data is literally the Internet and it's full of it.

With FSD, as long as the training data is clean, this should not happen. As much as some people want us to believe FSD goes rogue, there is no reason for it to hit that one tree if 99.999% of the users do not hit the tree. The "liars", in our little FSD world, do not have successful outcomes - they do not "get away with it" like on the internet. The tree hits back and it's obviously not useful for the training set.

Distant objects can look like a stop sign - if you can call that a hallucination, maybe. Like this Burger King sign. The vehicle response proceeded cautiously slowing to 24 mph, but then resumed once it got a little closer. It does not stop. Further, this same problem is now gone just up the street from me.

One could say FSD is getting "less iffy" over time.

 

[2daMoon]

Not sure. Probably AAPl, which will never have the kind of monumental gains TSLA is capable of but then again I don't have to wake up every day and worry.

I reached my 12 Million goal about 2 years ago when TSLA was at ATH, I'm kicking myself for not following my initial plan and selling at that point and putting the money into a safe diversified, boring portfolio that would give me 6-8% a year.

It's tough to watch this happen and I'm probably just getting TSLA fatigue. I still think it's a great company with the best products but the stock and the company have been pretty disconnected.

Upcoming earnings with possible lower margins could spell a lot of trouble for the stock, then again, we just took a pretty big haircut since the beginning of the year so that might be baked in. Any decision on my part involves a lot of possible taxes so I'm trying to really think this through.

You might find some consolation in leaving a comfortable portion of the portfolio in TSLA, then work diligently at forgetting it is there for five years or so.

Focus your involvement in watching the other investments instead, and avoid the drama if that is what you are losing sleep over.

Edit: Obligatory disclaimer - Never take anything I utter as financial advice.

 

[Hiline]

Repeat after me: "Price cuts are GOOD"

A price cut is simply a reflection of two things:

- where the market is today (no. of consumers with the required buying power).
- Tesla getting more efficient in supply chain and manufacturing

Short terms pressures on margins and such are not something to lose sleep over. Tesla should be singularly focused on reducing the price - Yes I said that - while keeping an acceptable margin. And keep increasing Superchargers and Service Centers. That is the playbook for this year and next.

Yeah just bad for the short term stock price, the obsession over which somehow became predominant in this thread in the last 6 months or so.

The same Model Y Long Range that was selling at $49k in the US in September is selling at $45k now. This does not reflect an overnight improvement in manufacturing efficiency.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Really considering liquidating most of my position, I’ve lost well into 7 figures from the highs and I see lower margins and more Elon issues on the horizon.

It’s been an amazing run but this company is run by a mental patient and I don’t have any faith in him short term. Teslas long term is bright but I fear a lot of pain in the next 2 years.

REALLY Bullish (for me... not poking at you, it's a thing, for me). The floor could still drop out with the Macro, but as I always say, "Where else ya gonna park your money?" We all lost money, every situation's unique. But if my bet's correct, you're really gonna be bummed.

Also, all this talk about TSLA having a flat year in 2024 - these people are using stronger drugs than I am.

 

[Mengy]

To put it more succinctly,

it is all but a part of the (Master) plan.​

Constantly amazed by people misunderstanding this, as Elon told the world well over a decade ago that this is exactly what Tesla intends to do. STILL, analysts and investors postulate upon how Tesla consistently lowering prices is a sign of weakness, rather than realize how it is actually a sign of dominance when you do exactly what you said you were gonna do year after year after year.

Price cuts are good for Tesla but bad for TSLA as it hurts earnings. I think a lot of investors are disappointed with this realization.

 

[mongo]

Yeah just bad for the short term stock price, the obsession over which somehow became predominant in this thread in the last 6 months or so.

The same Model Y Long Range that was selling at $49k in the US in September is selling at $45k now. This does not reflect an overnight improvement in manufacturing efficiency.

Huh?

Are you looking at price with expected savings and/ or tax credit?

 

[Drumheller]

TSLA is Wall Street's plaything to pull money from gamblers using the options market. This week is strong evidence of that.

Desire TSLA to rise? Then find a way to shift the options' targets to a higher strike. It is the driving force for TSLA for 2 years.

 

[GOVA]

Really considering liquidating most of my position, I’ve lost well into 7 figures from the highs and I see lower margins and more Elon issues on the horizon.

It’s been an amazing run but this company is run by a mental patient and I don’t have any faith in him short term. Teslas long term is bright but I fear a lot of pain in the next 2 years.

Another one bites the dust
And another one gone, and another one gone

 

[Paul_SF]

Huh?
View attachment 1010408

Are you looking at price with expected savings and/ or tax credit?

check inventory... they list cars not built/new, with 5k discounts.... this will happen.

 

[Paul_SF]

Tesla should announce they are ready to sell DOJOs for anyone to put in their AI centers this year. the stock will triple overnight, future is in chip design obviously..... (1/2 /s)

 

[cliff harris]

For anyone struggling with despair over the SP.
I remember a bunch of times in the past when the company or elon seemed to be a real let down. For me the big ones were:
The pedo guy thing
The first production numbers for the model 3 (as i recall it was laughably lower than expected)
Buying bitcoin
Its NOT EASY being a HODLer of Tesla stock. I have multiple friends who tried to copy my strategy, bought the stock, then sold at a loss. One has done this multiple times, much to my despair. I have never sold a notable amount of the stock, and havent sold a single share in years now.

Over the years I have learned that Tesla is a company that converts faith and patience into huge piles of money for the investors. However, it takes a lot of both to get the conversion to happen! The hardest times are the ones where it seems like nothing is happening. Where is the cybertruck ramp? the 4680 ramp? the semi? where is FSD12? where is actually smart summon?

With Tesla it often does not rain, but it does pour. There is no FSD in China or Europe, and no smart summon, or even autopark. Once FSD12 goes full release, I suspect we will see all of those things in quick succession, maybe even within a single quarter. At the same time, optimus progress will be accelerating.

So stay strong, hold your stock, dont let wall st win by getting you to sell when we are on the verge of a ton of great stuff. In a few months, when cybertruck ramp is visible, Highland M3s are on US roads, and we have an FSD update (or several), this dip in the stock will feel like a distant memory. I suspect there will be another bear attack after earnings, but as usual, the thing to watch is the SP a month after earnings, not during the call or next day. Too easy to manipulate.

 

[Mengy]

Also, all this talk about TSLA having a flat year in 2024 - these people are using stronger drugs than I am.

Why is it funny, do you think it will be a down year instead?