1. Going all in the 4680 battery production, when the risk was that if you can’t mass produce them quick enough it will add to the battery shortage.
It would have been better to increase capacity of the 2170s until you are certain the 4680s will be produced in sufficient numbers.
How was Tesla supposed to convince Panasonic to invest more into 2170 manufacturing and how quickly would Panasonic have been able to implement that?
How would delaying 4680 (via less focus and priority), assuming they were able to ramp a 3rd party 2170 manufacturer, be beneficial over the medium term? Stopgap measures to accelerate timing can become long term hindrances.
2. Not focussing on designing the smaller cheaper vehicle earlier.
Elon was all into the next generation auto vehicle and Franz had to convince him to produce the conventional vehicle by saying that the same design can be used for the robo taxi.
The facts are you have a limit of how many vehicles you can sell which cost a minimum of $40,000.
A smaller vehicle costing $25-30,000 can sell by the millions a year.
So by not focusing on this straight after the Y has been a major mistake.
Which is it? Did they not work on the conventional lower cost vehicle in parallel, or did they?
What new manufacturing processes and technologies were needed to achieve the $25k price point vehicle?
Does it require Tesla made cells at $45/kWh IRA credit, no markup, reduced shipping, and 4680 form factor (structural pack)? What about casting machines? Aluminum or magnesium? 48V or 16V?
See also lack of cells assumption from point #1.
3. Ramping up the semi earlier. I understand time was needed to put the semi through its paces but it could have gone faster by producing more for different customers to use and then gradually increasing the production, adapting to any problems reported by customers.
Dealing with multiple customer doesn't make testing faster. Each one needs charging infrastructure and letting one lead can have business benefits. Tesla had been doing internal testing for long before the initial reveal presentation.
Semi is now using Cybertruck inverters, what other tech needed to be developed and tested to enable a mass production semi?
See also point 1 on lack of cell supply.
4. Not planning to produce other vehicles that sell in significant numbers such as a van.
Based on some 3rd party firm estimates, Tesla is working on other vehicles. Roadster and Cybertruck were leak free until reveal.
If #1 holds, more models would not increase sales anyway.
5. Not doing targeted advertising. Once upon a time word of mouth was enough but now production exceeds supply. Plenty of people have no idea about how good EVs are, targeted advertising will increase sales but Elon has an ideological aversion to it.
If production exceeds demand while sales have also increased sequentially, then they are not short on cell production (at this price point).
As a result the next couple of years will be slow in terms of vehicle growth even allowing for the cybertruck sales.
True, ramps take time, but there is a lot which should be running in year 1 which means near volume in year 2:
Cybertruck with be two shifts soon
Semi is getting a factory
$25k line is being installed at Austin
Cathode plant is almost fully dried in
First four 4680 lines are in commissioning with four more coming this year
Lithium refinery construction is in process
The only other aspect which is a positive is how quickly they can ramp up battery’s for storage as that is one area where demand exceeds supply.
How are they ramping cells for energy, but unable to to for vehicles? $25k car could also use LFP.
The main factor impacting on the share price will be the slow growth rate for selling vehicles overall.
Limited by production ramp(s), or are you referring to total global vehicle sales which is inconsequential when the pure EV portion is a small fraction of the total?
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