Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[larmor]

This $TSLA drop (even though way less violent) then when it went to the low $100's seems way worse i think because the S&P and Nasdaq are ripping higher while we go down daily. Hopefully, this Wednesday brings some clarity, or maybe we go way lower. Short term thinkers get REKT'd . HODL is the way, i hope

Also its Monday.

 

[carterm2]

FSD hardware upgrades.

What is "FSD computer"?

I heard (last nights' X space by Meta) that Tesla has applied for Level 3 and Level 4 autonomy licenses in the US. While searching for proof, I ran across a Tesla site regarding hardware upgrades.

Full Self-Driving Computer Installations | Tesla Support

While no Tesla vehicles are fully autonomous today and require active driver supervision, the FSD computer is capable of delivering intelligent performance and control to enable a new level of safety and autonomy, without impacting cost or range. Learn more about FSD computer installation.

www.tesla.com

"If you purchased Full Self-Driving capability and have Autopilot computer 2.0 or 2.5, you are eligible for a complimentary upgrade to FSD computer. Certain early production vehicles may also receive complimentary camera replacements. A complimentary hardware upgrade is not available for Full Self-Driving capability subscriptions; however, you may be eligible to upgrade at your cost."

It seems to indicate an opportunity to upgrade from Hardware 2.0 or 2.5 ...

Can someone add clarity, I would pay for a Hw4 computer (a few times).

 

[uscbucsfan]

Can someone add clarity, I would pay for a Hw4 computer (a few times).

There is no current or planned path from HW3 or older to HW4.

 

[philw1776]

Why I Am Not Rich and Not a Brilliant Investor... Part 101
Once again to my dismay, my plan was to sell out just my IRA Tesla holdings (no tax hit) Jan 2nd @ 248 figuring that the price would drop below 200 to 180s or 190s and I could buy back in around April, May, whatever. But did I do so? NO!!!
This repeated failure to launch is the story of my investment life and why I do not fly in private jets.

This time I swear (I know, I know) if the price approaches 100 & Elon's still in charge I'll buy 1,000 shares more for my IRA.
Generational Wealth goal. 2030 target.

 

[Cobbler]

Damn. On days like today I wonder if the stock is going to $100 before $300.

Prediction time.
....

My predictions (for entertainment )

the coming weeks/months:

1) Q4 '23 financial results will be a disappointment. Wallstreet and MSM will salivate over this and publish a lot of articles with clickbaity headlines claiming the Tesla bubble has burst!
2) End of Januari: $TSLA dips below $100
3) Februari Elon converts his options into shares. Pays his taxes on the capital gains. He now owns 21% of Tesla
4) March: Delaware judge makes a ruling on the Tornetta vs Musk case
5) New compensation package confirmed by the board. Elon bonuses linked to Tesla achieving market cap of 10 Trillion and gives him the opportunity of owning >28% of Tesla
6) Mid March: Elon tweets cryptic messages about a new model coming. $TSLA recovers back above $200
7) Tesla announces Model 2 presentation date begin April. Built using Optimus robots on the line. Lowest cost model. Hypervolume car
8) Analyst upgrades incoming!
9) April 1st: $TSLA goes above $300 again
10) 24/4/20 Whole Mars on X livestreams coast-to-coast on FSD v12.4
11) Model 2 announced, together with Tesla Van.
12) End of June: FED cuts rates, $TSLA closes above $420 on Elons birthday
13) July: Texas initial production line in testing stage for M2 and RoboTaxi
14) Elon announces birth of a new child.
15) CATL announces high volume of M3P cells, used for Model Y, 3 and 2. Model Y Refresh launched
16) A Youtuber films first crash on FSD 12.5. $TSLA crashes 20% in one day. Black Swan event
17) Tesla added new videoclips, retrains and launches FSD 12.6.
18) August: Panasonic announces first deliveries of their 4680 cells to go into future Tesla models
19) Tesla announces Semi ramp up.
20) September CyberCel v3 released. Smaller Cybertruck announced, goes international. HW5 and Robotaxi Launch.
21) December: Texas pumps out first model 2 cars. $TSLA rockets above $1000!!!!

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I think your second paragraph explains your first paragraph, and that that first paragraph is actually about you, not about ‘people’.

When I hear people talk; friends, strangers, doesn’t matter, I hear a wide range of thoughts and opinions. I don’t hear just things specific to my reality.

Yah maybe. And maybe it’s a regional phenomenen as well. But in talking to folks (or observing conversations on social mecia) about their next EV choice many are waiting until they can get an NACS or even just an adapter for whatever vehicle they are looking at.

We looked briefly at the Lightning. It’s ok. Salesman was knowledgeable. One thing he mentioned is that it will be easier to sell their stock of Mach E’s and lightnings once they can include an NACS adapter. Every potential customer asks about it and sales stall when they tell them it will be at least a few more months. He has a long list of people he is supposed to call as soon as they are available.

Not an expert. Just an observation.

 

[Mengy]

this stock is going down so fast...... its kinda crazy who is selling?

It's earnings week, I expect us to go much lower in after hours Wednesday and then the rest of the week afterwards. My gut feeling is Wall Street will not like the financials nor the guidance for 2024.

As usual, hold onto the bar and enjoy the ride if you can stomach it!

 

[Knightshade]

I heard (last nights' X space by Meta) that Tesla has applied for Level 3 and Level 4 autonomy licenses in the US.

No such thing exists, so I'm pretty sure they didn't apply for imaginary things.

Currently all vehicle automation is regulated at the state, not federal, level. And the vast majority of states that allow it have no "license"-- you just tell the state "Hey my system is Lx, follows all laws, and I'm insured- trust me bro!" and that's it.

While searching for proof, I ran across a Tesla site regarding hardware upgrades.

Full Self-Driving Computer Installations | Tesla Support

While no Tesla vehicles are fully autonomous today and require active driver supervision, the FSD computer is capable of delivering intelligent performance and control to enable a new level of safety and autonomy, without impacting cost or range. Learn more about FSD computer installation.

www.tesla.com

"If you purchased Full Self-Driving capability and have Autopilot computer 2.0 or 2.5, you are eligible for a complimentary upgrade to FSD computer. Certain early production vehicles may also receive complimentary camera replacements. A complimentary hardware upgrade is not available for Full Self-Driving capability subscriptions; however, you may be eligible to upgrade at your cost."

It seems to indicate an opportunity to upgrade from Hardware 2.0 or 2.5 ...

Can someone add clarity, I would pay for a Hw4 computer (a few times).

That upgrades you to HW3 if you have 2.x and bought FSD.

There is no path to upgrade any HW2, 2.5, or 3 car further than 3 right now- and Elon has suggested there never will be.

 

[SOULPEDL]

This $TSLA drop (even though way less violent) then when it went to the low $100's seems way worse i think because the S&P and Nasdaq are ripping higher while we go down daily. Hopefully, this Wednesday brings some clarity, or maybe we go way lower. Short term thinkers get REKT'd . HODL is the way, i hope

Watch the Ball (someday, in the future).

Edit: YMMV

 

[Usain]

Yah maybe. And maybe it’s a regional phenomenen as well. But in talking to folks (or observing conversations on social mecia) about their next EV choice many are waiting until they can get an NACS or even just an adapter for whatever vehicle they are looking at.

We looked briefly at the Lightning. It’s ok. Salesman was knowledgeable. One thing he mentioned is that it will be easier to sell their stock of Mach E’s and lightnings once they can include an NACS adapter. Every potential customer asks about it and sales stall when they tell them it will be at least a few more months. He has a long list of people he is supposed to call as soon as they are available.

Not an expert. Just an observation.

This is as I expected. And it's probably why Ford has drastically cut Lightning production. Their EVs need that NACS plug.

I also expect that for most customers, an adapter is not good enough. They will wait until NACS is built in.

Ford should be able to do well with the Lightning. The Mach E is another story. I don't see how anybody would choose the Mach E over the Tesla MY until the Mach E qualifies for the tax break. The difference in price is huge.

 

[2daMoon]

I'd love to see info-marketing done that leans more to leading viewers toward considering why to buy TSLA as much as why to buy a Tesla.

Material that is chock full of easy to grok charts and graphs for the nerds, the inspirational history of the company's achievements, the bright Tesla future, along with amusing anecdotes regarding competition and mocking FUD in general. They could be factual and hilarious, or at least thought provoking enough to plant the seed in fertile ground. Meme-worthy stuff that spans the spectrum from fantasy to fact, and from comedy to pulling the heart-strings. It could be glorious with the right creative minds behind it.

As long as there is no actual competition for Tesla products there is no need for head-on product advertising. China, sure, advertise. Everywhere else, just do infotainment about all that Tesla has done and is doing, and run them outside the typical MSM channels where they can be picked up and shared.


But, is the time right? I don't know, but there do seem to be more and more internal releases of compelling video lately. That is a start. They are testing the waters.

HODL

 

[Accident]

Bull signal. Cramer wants to remove Tesla from the Magnificent 7:

"Monday On CNBC’s “Squawk On The Street,” Cramer suggested that Tesla should be left out of the index given its recent underperformance.
“Well, I got to tell you, the ‘Super Six’ is so strong, it’s amazing,” Cramer said. “Catch that? ‘Super Six’ because Tesla is no longer.”"

 

[hobbes]

Those are V4 posts with immersed liquid cooled conductors. Cabinets are unchanged. It seems 1000V cabinets will look the same (based on Semi sites).

Sorry mixed up posts and cabinets

 

[Zero CO2]

this is the strangest 2 days away from earnings i can remember since owning TSLA ... very weird

usually SP has run up to earnings....it is very quiet ... tons of FUD...
yet future for Tesla has never looked so bright...

the emotional part of investing never gets easy ...

 

[EQC_]

Yah I can see that. But right now a lot of people are aware of the supercharge advantage including many existing EV owners. There are lots of nice EV’s on the market but would be a bad choice for those who road trip. That goes away once all EV’s can benefit from the Tesla supercharge advantage.

We are leaning away from a Cybertruck now and more to a model X, but there are more and more EV’s in that category, and the model Y as well.

Jmho. Time will tell.

Connecting back to the idea of another EV potentially dethroning the Model Y, and your note here that there are more and more EV's in the category, there's a couple pieces that even many Auto and other journalists/bloggers and analysts don't seem to understand, especially when they write about the competition coming for Tesla:

• The existance of a car model for sale does not mean it can rapidly ramp up production rates.
  • No matter what drives the demand (supercharger access or otherwise), a company producing a car at a rate of 30,000 or even 100,000 per year can't suddenly ramp up by a factor of 10. They're not just running their factory at 10% capacity waiting for demand to kick in...they likely designed that production line and every aspect of their supply chain for their current production volume or slightly higher, and those manufacturers won't just be able to ramp up production by a factor of 10 or more in a year. Probably not two years either.
• Additionally, the other manufacturers seem to be pretty set on having many slightly different models to sell, each addressing some niche of personal taste, rather than putting their manufacturing toward producing one model in high numbers.
  • Spoiler: Description of a couple examples on that...

    • Think about all the different SUV/CUV's that Ford, for example, sells. They aren't looking for big sales numbers of any of them...there's just too many models for that. Their business is based on producing ever more niche vehicles that marketing can push folks toward.
      • Ford's SUV/CUV lineup includes: Escape, Bronco Sport, Bronco, Edge, Explorer, Expedition and Expedition MAX, and also the Mach-E. And each of those models is divided among a bunch of different trim levels, with an assortment of style and other options added on. Sure, each one has a unique appeal...but you have to wonder if manufacturing would be simplified (and costs and prices reduced) and total sales minimally affected if they consolidated things down a bit.
        • Tangential note: I'm convinced the main purpose of advertising in traditional auto is to "help" viewers feel like part of one of these niches. So they "know" if they are more of an Escape person or a Bronco Sport person...or if their personality better fits an Edge or Explorer. While one of those might be slightly more off-road capable than the other (or whatever), for most people the choice is purely one of fashion/style, since the use case for most drivers is the same -- either option will get them to and from the grocery store and work and kids sports events just as successfully...they just look different sitting in the driveway.
    • Think about Toyota -- with the Corolla and Camry, they do actually have pretty darned high volume for individual models (with each of those split among many trim levels, of course). But last I heard, their long-term EV plans are to produce a few million a year spread out over something like 30 models. So, their EV goal is to produce each one at about the 100,000 level.Even Toyota, which does produce the Corolla and Camry in high numbers

    [*]

The Model Y alone is in the ballpark of 1,000,000 per year globally, and increasing -- we know that neither Austin nor Berlin are consistently producing at their full Model Y volume, and we also know the struggles Tesla goes through (battery supplies, etc.) as they ramp production. Everybody else would have similar, or even worse struggles...and they are starting from a smaller base.

I believe VW as a whole sold fewer than 400,000 EV's in 2023 split among several models...so ballpark 100,000 for each.

I can't find global EV-only numbers for Hyundai/Kia, but they also sell several EV models, and I believe their total EV sale are also in that "a few 100K per year" range...so their best seller is probably in the 100,000 ballpark too. Hyundai has also said that they plan to have 30+ EV models during the 2030's -- they aren't going for volume on individual models.

I believe the Mustang Mach-E sold fewer than 100,000 globally in 2023.

It looks like the Ford Lightning sold fewer than 30,000 in 2023.

There are many Chinese manufacturers that I don't know much about, but they also seem to be going for the "multiple model" approach. BYD has a couple models in the 200-300,000 range, but there's no reason to think production of those models would triple in a year or two.

There just isn't an EV model I'm seeing that could realistically approach the production volume in the next couple years to have a chance at outselling the Model Y.... if any vehicle is to outsell the Model Y in 2024, it would have to be a smaller increase to an already big volume seller, so the only remote possibility there is something like the Corolla or F-Series, but I don't think either Toyota or Ford would want to ramp up factories and cut prices to drive those sales numbers.

 

[Musskiah]

this is the strangest 2 days away from earnings i can remember since owning TSLA ... very weird

usually SP has run up to earnings....it is very quiet ... tons of FUD...
yet future for Tesla has never looked so bright...

the emotional part of investing never gets easy ...

It's summer of 2019 all over again...heading into Q2 earnings Cramer was trashing Tesla and FUD was multiplying like a wet Gremlin all over Bloomberg, CNBS, WSJ, Business Insider, Reuters. All it took was 2 quarters for the tide to turn drastically.

 

[Mengy]

this is the strangest 2 days away from earnings i can remember since owning TSLA ... very weird

usually SP has run up to earnings....it is very quiet ... tons of FUD...
yet future for Tesla has never looked so bright...

the emotional part of investing never gets easy ...

The long term future of Tesla is very bright, but the short term future is murky. Falling margins, slow CT production ramp, slow 4680 production ramp, FSD is still in beta, Optimus is years away, Megapacks are scaling but still very early in the S curve ramp, Giga Mexico hasn't really started construction yet and no other new factories underway, no Gen 3 compact in sight yet, the FUD is in full swing and going largely unanswered, and Elon might sell more shares this year to fund X again while he's talking about wanting to own more controlling shares or he'll "potentially" take development away from Tesla.

Not hard to understand why the stock is slowly dying while the rest of the Magnificent 7 blast off to the stars. If we get underwhelming financials or poor guidance at the ER we'll probably be mimicking the Titanic by the end of the week.

On the plus side, buying opportunity!

 

[hobbes]

FSD hardware upgrades.

What is "FSD computer"?

I heard (last nights' X space by Meta) that Tesla has applied for Level 3 and Level 4 autonomy licenses in the US. While searching for proof, I ran across a Tesla site regarding hardware upgrades.

Full Self-Driving Computer Installations | Tesla Support

While no Tesla vehicles are fully autonomous today and require active driver supervision, the FSD computer is capable of delivering intelligent performance and control to enable a new level of safety and autonomy, without impacting cost or range. Learn more about FSD computer installation.

www.tesla.com

"If you purchased Full Self-Driving capability and have Autopilot computer 2.0 or 2.5, you are eligible for a complimentary upgrade to FSD computer. Certain early production vehicles may also receive complimentary camera replacements. A complimentary hardware upgrade is not available for Full Self-Driving capability subscriptions; however, you may be eligible to upgrade at your cost."

It seems to indicate an opportunity to upgrade from Hardware 2.0 or 2.5 ...

Can someone add clarity, I would pay for a Hw4 computer (a few times).

My 2019 Model 3 (bought with FSD package) was upgraded to HW 3.0 at no cost in 2021, as were many others.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Maybe there's a better chart, but I was poking around to find out "Days Inventory" for the various EVs. I believe these are worst ones - six months inventory is common here. Yikes! No wonder the factory slow/shutdowns for EVs. Any more inventory and they'll be selling the 23's in 2025. It's almost as thought a 6-month supply is the cut-off signal for production.

Why Dealers Can't Sell These 10 Electric Cars!

Unveiling the shocking reasons why these electric cars are off the market. Don't miss out on this eye-opening video!

www.toolify.ai

 

[hobbes]

Yah maybe. And maybe it’s a regional phenomenen as well. But in talking to folks (or observing conversations on social mecia) about their next EV choice many are waiting until they can get an NACS or even just an adapter for whatever vehicle they are looking at.

We looked briefly at the Lightning. It’s ok. Salesman was knowledgeable. One thing he mentioned is that it will be easier to sell their stock of Mach E’s and lightnings once they can include an NACS adapter. Every potential customer asks about it and sales stall when they tell them it will be at least a few more months. He has a long list of people he is supposed to call as soon as they are available.

Not an expert. Just an observation.

Haha, NACS was all Elon playing 3D chess to stall competitors sales !