Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

Feels like Xmas morning, waiting to open presents. Will I get a new bike, or a sweater and socks?

Id take sweater and socks over lumps of coal.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Not sure if related, but if Project Redwood has anything to do with Redwood Material, the only association that I can make is for an EV priced at or below 25k is the fact that the battery pack and the car itself would be highly recyclable.

Or, if "Project Redwood" has anything to do with JB Straubel, I can associate that he's next in line for CEO...

Cheers to the Recyclers!

 

[philw1776]

I'm probably not the first person to realize this, and late buy...
During the twitter purchase and elon stock sale, there was much unhappiness here (justified) that was due to it being apparent that Elon was happy to reduce his interest in Tesla to buy a social media company.
The fact that he is now openly saying he wants more Tesla stock might be an extremely good sign. He sees the future of Tesla as bigger and more interesting than that of X.
This is a good thing.
I don't think elon will sell any more TSLA. He may even sell some spacex if he needs cash. He may also start buying TSLA. It could happen at any time.

I note that you just said MAY but I strongly disagree. Musk will not risk diluting his SpaceX control position. It's a core value that he needs to control SpaceX independent of anyone(s) else. SpaceX makes risky mars focused investments where others or their stock inheritors may not share the vision.

 

[FreqFlyer]

https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1750024350269346228?s=20

Tesla tears down the competition just like any other carmaker. To some here it be hearsay. To me its reassuring Tesla keeps tabs on the competition and humble enough to learn from them (who knows how many thousands of Model 3s have been torn apart by automakers).

 

[M|S|M MYP]

https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1750024350269346228?s=20

Tesla tears down the competition just like any other carmaker. To some here it be hearsay. To me its reassuring Tesla keeps tabs on the competition and humble enough to learn from them (who knows how many thousands of Model 3s have been torn apart by automakers).

Always good to know what your competition is up to. Tesla tears it down, (maybe laughs at it) and makes it 100 times better

 

[RubberToe]

Speaking of Russ Mitchell, he has an article in the LA Times today about the abysmal state of public EV charging in California:

Broken chargers, lax oversight: How California's troubled EV charging stations threaten emission goals

Why are so many California EV charging stations broken? Lax state oversight of state subsidies is one big reason.

www.latimes.com

Tesla gets a mention, with a heaping plate full of FUD too:

Distressed by the state of the public charger system, automobile companies have struck agreements with Tesla to use its Superchargers. The details are yet to be announced. No word on what percentage of Tesla chargers non-Tesla cars will be able to use, how much it will cost, or how Tesla will handle an influx of non-Tesla cars.

 

[SOULPEDL]

MMD is back!

 

[Artful Dodger]

I note that you just said MAY but I strongly disagree. Musk will not risk diluting his SpaceX control position. It's a core value that he needs to control SpaceX independent of anyone(s) else. SpaceX makes risky mars focused investments where others or their stock inheritors may not share the vision.

SpaceX is a privately-owned company, and has a different share structure. Elon own's ~45% of SpaceX common shares, but owns ~65% of SpaceX voting shares. He's not taking his hand off the SpaceX rudder anytime soon, even if he does takes some cash off the deck to increase his TSLA holdings.

 

[unk45]

https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1750024350269346228?s=20

Tesla tears down the competition just like any other carmaker. To some here it be hearsay. To me its reassuring Tesla keeps tabs on the competition and humble enough to learn from them (who knows how many thousands of Model 3s have been torn apart by automakers).

Keep in mind that Sandy Munro and several others make a living doing competitive teardowns. Several of us have, IIRC, participated directly or indirectly in such efforts. I recall while doing a project for one US OEM that I had the chance to participate in a track drive of several competitors vehicles prior to their teardowns. Whether it is productive tends to relate to the desire of the OEM to learn. In the specific case I saw, they were primarily seeking to evaluate Tier One and Two suppliers, so the teardowns were not, in that case, oriented towards direct OEM improvement. I thought that was a trifle shortsighted but commenting would have been seriously out of my scope.

It did not keep them from going bankrupt not much later. They were reformed, top management sort of changed but they remain not very admirable. The shareholders were wiped out.

Tesla, I am sure, really uses teardowns to learn. I suspect the Tesla types don't use theirs for joyrides before the teardowns.

 

[Atomsla]

Keep in mind that Sandy Munro and several others make a living doing competitive teardowns. Several of us have, IIRC, participated directly or indirectly in such efforts. I recall while doing a project for one US OEM that I had the chance to participate in a track drive of several competitors vehicles prior to their teardowns. Whether it is productive tends to relate to the desire of the OEM to learn. In the specific case I saw, they were primarily seeking to evaluate Tier One and Two suppliers, so the teardowns were not, in that case, oriented towards direct OEM improvement. I thought that was a trifle shortsighted but commenting would have been seriously out of my scope.

It did not keep them from going bankrupt not much later. They were reformed, top management sort of changed but they remain not very admirable. The shareholders were wiped out.

Tesla, I am sure, really uses teardowns to learn. I suspect the Tesla types don't use theirs for joyrides before the teardowns.

To the bolded part: I know this is far from reality at most companies, but offering up good feedback should never be out of anyones scope.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Tesla, its not just Honda's production (wonder how many times Tesla took the Marysville plant tour, and vice versa), but what Honda does with the platform. Every Honda product that has debuted after the present 11 gen Civic is or will ride on the Civic platform. Even higher margin Acuras are riding on a heavily engineered Civic platform with DWB suspensions.

https://www.kbb.com/best-cars/top-10-25-best-selling-cars-trucks-suvs/

The Civic sales pays for the platform worldwide multiple times over worldwide and the other products are just gravy.

Doesn't hurt that Tesla's lead product Engineer Lars worked at American Honda. He knows the engineering and cost savings behind platform sharing.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Just for the timestamp... Morning Open Interest. Lots at 225.

 

[scaesare]

Always good to know what your competition is up to. Tesla tears it down, (maybe laughs at it) and makes it 100 times better

Hehe, I was going to say: "And learn what mistakes to avoid...."

 

[jkirkwood001]

Or, if "Project Redwood" has anything to do with JB Straubel, I can associate that he's next in line for CEO...

Cheers to the Recyclers!

Interesting to imagine what Elon backing away from operations would do to the SP in the short- and medium- term.

It's not obvious to me, but I'm sure others will chime in, as usual, with "there's zero % chance that the share price will go up because..." or "down because...". Like the future of TSLA year-by-year has been predictable for the last 10 years.

 

[Singuy]

Or Tesla buys Redwood, and makes JB still in charge of Redwood (Model Q/2)

or it's another code name that doesn't exist like highland.

 

[elasalle]

or it's another code name that doesn't exist like highland.

or Elon had been away from Tesla for too long to know the inside jokes
(per Twitter, it was seen in release notes or something like that, IIRC ..)

 

[EQC_]

https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1750024350269346228?s=20

Tesla tears down the competition just like any other carmaker. To some here it be hearsay. To me its reassuring Tesla keeps tabs on the competition and humble enough to learn from them (who knows how many thousands of Model 3s have been torn apart by automakers).

I'm antsy for a truly practical 7-8 seater from Tesla. Something that can actually compete on practicality and versatility with a minivan. A van or perhaps a uniquely practical full size SUV...maybe there's some hope from something on the Cybertruck platform.

It's not even a matter of a tear-down...but I hope folks at Tesla that can drive decisions are driving around and living with a minivan and their family so they can realize how Tesla vehicles don't get close to certain aspects of that mark yet.

I've got the 7-seat Y, and it's good for certain things with the family and dog. The X (at a big price step up) would offer a little more. But neither really gets close to a modern not-so-minivan when it comes to hauling people, and being able to reconfigure, stow, or remove seats for people- and cargo-flexibility. And I think they all still come with a spare tire and jack kit that stashes somewhere inside (a personal security blanket that I would value).

 

[uscbucsfan]

I'm antsy for a truly practical 7-8 seater from Tesla. Something that can actually compete on practicality and versatility with a minivan. A van or perhaps a uniquely practical full size SUV...maybe there's some hope from something on the Cybertruck platform.

It's not even a matter of a tear-down...but I hope folks at Tesla that can drive decisions are driving around and living with a minivan and their family so they can realize how Tesla vehicles don't get close to certain aspects of that mark yet.

I've got the 7-seat Y, and it's good for certain things with the family and dog. The X (at a big price step up) would offer a little more. But neither really gets close to a modern not-so-minivan when it comes to hauling people, and being able to reconfigure, stow, or remove seats for people- and cargo-flexibility. And I think they all still come with a spare tire and jack kit that stashes somewhere inside (a personal security blanket that I would value).

We know of 2 vehicles coming in the next 2-4 years and that's not one of them.

The minivan market is pretty small currently. As an investor, that's way down the list of products I'd like to see Tesla deliver unless they also use that platform for a work van in the future.

 

[Singuy]

BYD moves fast and Panasonic is dead slow ... liklely represents overall China vs Japan

Yes, but unlike the Japanese, Chinese are known to cut corners and things explode. Byd is pretty well know for fires in China.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Jittery nerves with the troops today...

Cheers to the Longs!