Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[heltok]

I keep changing my mind - is it FSD or Optimus that gets the stonk pumped up first?

Imo FSD. V12 will offer a few things:
1. Greatly improved subjective performance, wow factor for a lot of passengers selling both FSD and Teslas
2. Slightly increased take rate and price in US
3. Quicker rollout of FSD outside of US ie China and release of deferred revenue from Europe
4. V12 so far seems like a great leap forward, it might actually be good enough for A->B supervised for most drives and safer than average within a few weeks.
5. Quicker iteration as it's not only a data/training problem.
6. Getting ready for small scale geofenced robotaxi

This will happen this year. Optimus this year will see small scale work on Tesla factory floor. Wallstreet will not get it until they see the product out to some customers in 2025.

 

[Drumheller]

Can you please explain what's been inflated. I bought my first house in the 1980s for16% mortgage.. You could buy CDs paying 10%. And the inflation stayed high into the Reagan administration. I know food is high, but that's due to the greed of the food conglomerates. A 2 liter bottle of soda I drink went from 2.69 to 3.39 in a matter a of few months. But what else is inflated, and I'm not being naive, I'm just trying to understand

I personally know several households that are struggling despite working as much as they can. I have an above average and above median salary in the USA and the difference in my disposable income for the past 4 years is significant

 

[heltok]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750631612033728595

 

[MountainRatMat]

Should quit drinking soda...NFA of course.

Relax everyone....$TSLA will be fine.

What is NFA?

 

[CitizenKane]

It is not only about him, rather about the whole another fake drama. Yes, WE know the details but they spin it anyway they make money.

Now, how many of those January earning calls have we been through? Just look at the whole Tesla now vs even 2019. I take Tesla-now anytime.

It will pass.

What's the fake drama? An analyst's role is to analyse intrinsic value and predict short term movements. Yesterday Dan Ives did just that, and it would seem quite correctly so. Anyone listening to him for short movement advice could have sold at market opening a price about 4% higher that at the end of the day and anyone interested in the long perspective would have heard him saying he still believes Tesla has a lot of interesting long term potential. Hence his price target, considerably above today's stock price.

 

[2daMoon]

What is NFA?

Not Financial Advice?

 

[SmokyPeat]

Trading green in after hours. We're back, baby!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

What is NFA?

Not financial advice

 

[MC3OZ]

Why? People might as well just buy a base Model 3 then. I don't think Tesla would go to all the trouble to create a completely new car, using completely new technology to manufacture and assemble it, just to have it come in a couple thousand dollars less than the Model 3. They could spend much less money to just create a new, smaller battery pack to fit the Model 3 that meets the new IRA guidelines to get a $7500 tax credit. It just wouldn't make sense.

One possible scenario is that Model 3 Highland was an attempt to to building a cheaper Model 3 via de-contenting, and they ended up adding more stuff and making a better car.

The problem with cheap is it looks cheap, and anyone can do cheap, a cheap copy of a cheap car, that is a sure path to low margins.

It is clear to me that a lot of the Tesla team answer questions like engineers, they go straight to "How", and don't linger long on "Why". For an earnings call it dives deep into nerdy engineering stuff at times...

I heard enough to know that what was happening with Gen3 was different to what I expected. Gen3 will be harder to copy and may not involve an army of Optimus robots working on the line... or perhaps the machine that builds the cars is Optimus?

What we can expect from Gen3 is lower cost, but not cheap, not easy to copy, performance, efficiency and value for money that is hard to match, and most importantly higher margins.

Tesla is the exciting roller coaster that occasionally surprises, but leaves you satisfied (and relieved) at the end of the ride.

If people want to ride in the teacups, there are plenty of other car companies around... just don't expect excitement, innovation and good margins.

 

[hobbes]

Good report on PepsiCo semis:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750542026888646964

 

[elasalle]

Life of a Cyber Bull these days

 

[Don TLR]

Times like this its aways good to hear Tasha reminding everyone why they should HODL

 

[jerry33]

In a nutshell - the pain TSLA is going through is for one and one reason only: 4860 did not pan out as expected. It may reach its full expected potential maybe in a year or two or more, but now after 4 years after announcing all the great things, 4680 turned out to be Meh.

- Energy density: they need to fix it. It is subpar. C-
- Charging curve: it is subpar. C-
- Cost: I will give it a B+. I think the cost reductions are panning out which is good

Until they fix 4680 - either energy density or charging curve - TSLA is going to flounder. FSD or not.

The timeline in the presentation was six years. This is only year four.

 

[CitizenKane]

Swedish google is confused, says TSLA trading at 307.58 after hours

 

[jerry33]

I've been hearing that sound for years now...

And every so often it does, but if you don't HODL, then you'll miss it.

 

[Krugerrand]

Can you please explain what's been inflated. I bought my first house in the 1980s for16% mortgage.. You could buy CDs paying 10%. And the inflation stayed high into the Reagan administration. I know food is high, but that's due to the greed of the food conglomerates. A 2 liter bottle of soda I drink went from 2.69 to 3.39 in a matter a of few months. But what else is inflated, and I'm not being naive, I'm just trying to understand

Ok.

How much did you buy the house for in the 80’s?
How much did you make as a wage (per hour or yearly salary - not overtime) in the 80’s?
How much is the house you bought in the 80’s worth today?
How much is your wage (per hour or yearly salary- not overtime today?
How much was a loaf of bread, a gallon of milk, a chocolate bar, a T-bone steak, a dozen eggs, a pound of butter, a pound of flour, a pound of flour, and a pound of coffee in the 80’s?
How much is a loaf of bread, a gallon of milk, a chocolate bar, a T-bone steak, a dozen eggs, a pound of butter, a pound of flour, a pound of flour, and a pound of coffee today?
How much did a gallon of gas cost in the 80’s around the corner from your house?
How much does one cost now in the same neighborhood as your 80’s home?
What was the average cost of a new family sedan/van in the 80’s?
What is the average cost of a new family sedan/van today?
How much did you spend outfitting your kids for a new school year in the 80’s?
How much do parents spend today outfitting their kids for a new school year?
Remind me what was the minimum wage where you lived in the 80’s?
And what is the minimum wage now?

Let me know if you don’t yet see the inflation.

I’ll start us off. My parents bought their first house in the 80’s paying those same kinds of interest rates. They paid $49,000 for a 3 bedroom bungalow.

So, I just looked up the sale price of the same style of bungalow as my parents owned on the very same street - literally just a few doors down from my childhood home - $699,000.

And just for giggles - minimum wage was highest in the 80’s at $3.35/hr and currently stands at $16.55/hr.

Nothing to see here.

 

[jerry33]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750631612033728595

The problem with count down traffic lights (in the U.S.) is that they are not consistent. On the commute I used to have some changed when the count got down to zero, some changed at five or six seconds before, and some changed after the count reached zero. All within 25 miles. Sometime earlier (way earlier) there was a post about how count down traffic lights increased accidents. No wonder with all the inconsistency.

 

[Krugerrand]

Swedish google is confused, says TSLA trading at 307.58 after hours

View attachment 1012254

There’s a lot of Swedish confusion lately.

 

[MountainRatMat]

Didn't drew say they just switched the Model Y to the 4680 CT cells?

My understanding from Drew's comment was that they switched the Model Y 4680 cell line over to producing the 10% higher energy density CT cells that will go in to the CT but I could be mistaken.

 

[scaesare]

In a nutshell - the pain TSLA is going through is for one and one reason only: 4860 did not pan out as expected. It may reach its full expected potential maybe in a year or two or more, but now after 4 years after announcing all the great things, 4680 turned out to be Meh.

- Energy density: they need to fix it. It is subpar. C-
- Charging curve: it is subpar. C-
- Cost: I will give it a B+. I think the cost reductions are panning out which is good

Until they fix 4680 - either energy density or charging curve - TSLA is going to flounder. FSD or not.

(After trading hours diversion from the stock hysteria )

So, any thoughts on what the technical issues with the 4680's are?

Energy density (volumetric): Ther's physically more space for more "jellyroll"... are they having to make the anode or cathode thicker? Are they the same thickness but not performing as well due to cathode efficiency? If either of these is the case, is t a byproduct of the fractured silicon anode? The dry cathode process is producing a subpar component?

Charging curve: Is solely this related to the lesser energy dense cells? Or is it a cooling issue due to the increased volume-to-surface area ratio? Or the thickness of the cell isn't allowing adequate heat to transfer out to the can/cooling ribbon?

Cost (how do we know what this is?): Is this a factor of lower production volume, or number that need scrapping because of production problems (as with the dry electrode process)?

If there's a place that this has been covered, any pointers welcome...