Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hobbes]

(After trading hours diversion from the stock hysteria )

So, any thoughts on what the technical issues with the 4680's are?

Energy density (volumetric): Ther's physically more space for more "jellyroll"... are they having to make the anode or cathode thicker? Are they the same thickness but not performing as well due to cathode efficiency? If either of these is the case, is t a byproduct of the fractured silicon anode? The dry cathode process is producing a subpar component?

Charging curve: Is solely this related to the lesser energy dense cells? Or is it a cooling issue due to the increased volume-to-surface area ratio? Or the thickness of the cell isn't allowing adequate heat to transfer out to the can/cooling ribbon?

Cost (how do we know what this is?): Is this a factor of lower production volume, or number that need scrapping because of production problems (as with the dry electrode process)?

If there's a place that this has been covered, any pointers welcome...

There was a media report recently that they do buy cathode material (IIRC) from a China supplier (was discussed here). That suggests they have problems with the DBE process for the cathode..

 

[elasalle]

The best wave is no wave-

The best guidance is no guidance-

The shackles are off. Own your own timeline. Tesla has earned their own future.

I like it!

In a way guidance is like the SP and portfolio- when up everyone wants to talk and boast about it, when down they don’t want to talk about it
Human nature…

 

[Buckminster]

HW5 design almost complete. Does that mean on first cars towards the end of 2024? Juniper, Roadster or maybe Semi (extra cameras) intro?

 

[Buckminster]

Bots next year going to factories only?

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750833628148302039

Premarket didn't miss a beat

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Tesla literally said otherwise multiple times- including in the product description of FSD for years.

I know they've said that, multiple times. I still don't believe it

 

[hobbes]

The 50% growth rate was not removed. They only reiterated that in some years it won't be 50%.
Over time their target is still 50% cumulative annual growth rate.
The question was specifically about 2024 and 2025.
View attachment 1012320

They did remove the 50% from the Outlook in the letter.

We are planning to grow production as quickly as possible in alignment with the 50% CAGR target we began guiding to in early 2021. In some years we may grow faster and some we may grow slower, depending on a number of factors. For 2023, we expect to remain ahead of the long-term 50% CAGR with around 1.8 million vehicles for the year.

Our company is currently between two major growth waves: the first one began with the global expansion of the
Model 3/Y platform and the next one we believe will be initiated by the global expansion of the next-generation vehicle platform. In 2024, our vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023, as our teams work on the launch of the next-generation vehicle at Gigafactory Texas. In 2024, the growth rate of deployments and revenue in our Energy Storage business should outpace the Automotive business.

 

[hobbes]

Robotaxi will happen about 4-5 years after FSD can be trusted without a driver, becuase it'll take that long to get through the regulatory environment.

Optimus in the factory can happen as soon as it can safely do one task.

Even though its the same software, robots will happen first because they can control the environment, the risk, and the liability.

IIRC there were other manufacturers that did have robotaxis running already ?!
If Tesla does not insist on "everything, everywhere" it might not take that so long. Kind of depends on the definition of robotaxi.

 

[Mengy]

Sure it is, have you done the math? If we take only last years actuals and exit run rates (N.B. Shanghai Dec '23 wholesale was 93.5K units, or 1.1M annualized) all we need to do is bring up Giga Texas Model Y Production to the existing level of Giga Berlin. Here's the numbers:

View attachment 1012352

Question is, will Tesla want to do it? Of course! They'be already invested 100% of the CapEx required to build this capacity, all they have to do is continue to run it at 2023's 'exit rate' and bring TX up to match Berlin...

and TX is getting 100GWh of 4680 cell capacity by mid-year, already at 25 GWh with just one production line (+2 test lines are extra, installing the 4th line as we speak). Plus, Drew told us YESTERDAY that they are weeks ahead on 4680 production vs needs for CT.

Okay, is it technically possible Tesla could hit 2.58M units in 2024? Sure, it is not an impossibility. However, given current capacities, realistic run rates and ramp rates (particularly for the CT), and Tesla's own guidance for this year to be a lower than normal growth year, I'd rate that possibility at about 2% likelihood.

I guess I was wrong?

 

[cliff harris]

I think people forget that one of the main priorities for highland was to make the car easier (quicker) to build. You cant look at pre-highland model 3 production rates and assume they are set in stone. Its absolutely inconceivable that Tesla would not take the opportunity of Highland/Juniper to increase production efficiency for those lines.
Also worth remembering that Berlin does not make the model 3 yet. The 3 definitely has a market in Europe, but its not helped by having to ship them there from shanghai. I'm sure eventually Tesla will add a 3 line to Berlin. In fact it may have made sense for them to wait until highland was established before doing so?

 

[Cobbler]

.....

He's overrated!

Following the trend instead of predicting it.
A year ago: bearish and afterwards $TSLA
A month ago: bullish and afterwards $TSLA drops
Now he's complaining again.

Is he an investor or a trader?
What a shortsighted nonsense!!

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750852852275143092

 

[Mengy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750852852275143092

Yeah, I have to agree with Gary on this one.

 

[Zero CO2]

I seem to remember all the WS crybabies when apple stopped giving iphone guidance some years back
this is a good move by Tesla I hope they stop giving unit volume forecast going forward ... like apple what will matter is the fleet ...over time services and sw revenue will be the growth engines ...
as we have seen the volume forecasts are used against TSLA throughout the year by MSM

 

[2daMoon]

So what are the machines that make the redwood compact? They are hard to copy.

1. Optimus bots for unboxed?
2. Huge single Mg Thixomolded gigacasting? (tech probably not ready but then again neither is the bot)
3. 3D printing?
4. Kuka alien dreadnought?
5. Huge plastic moldings?
6. Something else?

7. Paint is expensive

 

[The Accountant]

the Chinese are a threat in my opinion

This is a topic I think this forum should spend some time on and would be of value to all of us.

My gut tells me that this will become the next "competition is coming" scare. I don't think it will so easy for China to make a huge impact outside of Asia soon. They will get there but it will take much longer than people think, imo. I had some exposure/experience in China during my career but it would be great to hear from others on this topic.

Here is why I think the Chinese EV expansion outside of Asia will be slower than expected:
1. To reach huge volumes, manufacturing facilities will need to be established in Europe and North America
2. There are currently not many Chinese huge end to end manufacturing facilities outside of Asia (some in North Africa . . Investments starting in Mexico).
3. Mexico will be key to entering the US market and in Mexico the 3rd Party Supply chain is not comparable to China's supply chain. The auto supply chain is there in Mexico but the Chinese companies will need to establish their supply chain and may find that efficiencies are not like China. China's supply chain network is the best in the world.
4. There will be cultural issues. Often Chinese companies will insert Chinese ex-pats in most of the senior management roles whom are not tuned to the local cultural differences and can create mistrust, frustration and poor performance. A friend of mine that works at a Chinese bank in South America tells me that in management meetings, the conversation at times can move to Mandarin. The ex-pats will speak in Mandarin for 10 min then summarize for the locals with 2 sentences.

China can start with exports but I believe to be a huge threat to Tesla they will need to build manufacturing capacity abroad and this will take time and come with some hiccups.

Please others with thoughts . . . chime in.

 

[Stretch2727]

Does anyone know how long it takes Tesla to recoup the cost of building a Supercharger station (on average)? For fully amortized sites, what is the annual revenue per stall? Or some metric? I have no idea if we have any insight into this. At some point, I would hope it would be a nice cash cow. The variability in sites must be high too - some at a slight annual loss and some raking it in big time.

Like you state, I imagine a large variability in profitability for individual sites, but overall Elon has stated their target.

30% Gross Margin and 10% Net Margin.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1510691354623590410

 

[The Accountant]

Does anyone know how long it takes Tesla to recoup the cost of building a Supercharger station (on average)? For fully amortized sites, what is the annual revenue per stall? Or some metric? I have no idea if we have any insight into this. At some point, I would hope it would be a nice cash cow. The variability in sites must be high too - some at a slight annual loss and some raking it in big time.

I don't have revenue projections but on the investment side, I believe we can estimate about $35k per supercharger.
Return on investment obviously depends on utilization.
I stopped at a 40 stall location in Dillion SC and I was the only car charging. This $1.4m investment will take a few years to achieve a payback.
However, the Supercharger at the Florida Mall in Orlando has 16 Superchargers that appear to have a line all the time. I bet the payback is less than a year.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750873931890737442

 

[uscbucsfan]

I don't have revenue projections but on the investment side, I believe we can estimate about $35k per supercharger.
Return on investment obviously depends on utilization.
I stopped at a 40 stall location in Dillion SC and I was the only car charging. This $1.4m investment will take a few years to achieve a payback.
However, the Supercharger at the Florida Mall in Orlando has 16 Superchargers that appear to have a line all the time. I bet the payback is less than a year.

That location in Dillon is odd. It has a ton of SC and almost no usage. I've charged there 6 times and have never seen another car.