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Project Redwood (Compact Crossover)
- Thread starter Buckminster
- Start date
I am leaning towards having the reveal and reservations closer to the start of production... so reveal in January 2025, if production is starting June 2025.
The extra cash from reservations will come in handy in January 2025 because the last phase of getting ready for volume production is often when a lot of the expensive equipment is installed. And money might also be needed for Mexico..
I thought the southern extension at Austin was just for office space, but according to Joe T there is paint shop equipment staged there, and that might be for the new compact. For low volume trail production they could hand paint the panels or just leave them unpainted.
So while June 2025 is later than I would like, it probably makes sense looking at construction happening at Austin.,
The other reason it makes sense is the lag on getting parts from suppliers, 12-18 months seems to be what it takes. Most probably there is a process of testing and evaluating small batches of parts in advance, before an official sign off on volume orders.
I don't think they can take reservations without a reveal and specs, it takes a lot of time and effort to make a few cars for a reveal.. and then test cars are easy to spot..
By June 2025 I would expect Cybertruck and Model Y at Austin to be close to fully ramped, 4680 cell production a lot closer to fully ramped.
They probably want to time things so Mexico starts production 6-12 months after Austin... I think that means Mexico construction needs to start soon.
I agree reveal it closer to when folk can buy one, especially to avoid osbourning the Model Y. I think though a reveal late this year makes sense and production starting in 2025. If it's a smaller crossover using all the latest design and architectures from Y/CyberTruck and a more efficient production process at a good price (below $35k) then it will outsell every car and take Tesla to the next level.
ChooseFreedom
Member
So Tesla has been breaking down Honda Civics to learn how to make cars more efficiently and cost effective. One would think they'd have done something like this way before now. But I guess better late than never. (probably have to a lesser extent)
Elon's cryptic comments hinted at design cues from the CyberTruck. And they're calling this model a "compact crossover".
I was thinking the new model would be more hatchback-like. But sounds more like it being a Mazda CX-30/Honda HRV kind of footprint.
So if they stay with the current naming format, by size, we have the Model X, Model Y, and this seems to fit as the Model Z.
But the question we'll all be waiting to get an answer to will be, How many design cues from the CyberTruck? Are they going to shrink the CT, cut the bed, cover it for a small cargo area? Or will it be more of a smaller Y?
From a simplistic, cost effective, mass appeal, standpoint, I have to think it's gotta lean toward a refreshed Y-type exterior look.
Elon said the "revolution in manufacturing that will be represented by that car will blow people’s minds." And we knew they were doing some cutting edge manufacturing techniques in order to make this vehicle cheap enough to move the needle. But the aesthetic design is going to be just as important if Tesla wants to truly shock the car industry, and appeal to the masses. A beautiful vehicle, around $25k.
Guess we'll find out in about a year.
Elon's cryptic comments hinted at design cues from the CyberTruck. And they're calling this model a "compact crossover".
I was thinking the new model would be more hatchback-like. But sounds more like it being a Mazda CX-30/Honda HRV kind of footprint.
So if they stay with the current naming format, by size, we have the Model X, Model Y, and this seems to fit as the Model Z.
But the question we'll all be waiting to get an answer to will be, How many design cues from the CyberTruck? Are they going to shrink the CT, cut the bed, cover it for a small cargo area? Or will it be more of a smaller Y?
From a simplistic, cost effective, mass appeal, standpoint, I have to think it's gotta lean toward a refreshed Y-type exterior look.
Elon said the "revolution in manufacturing that will be represented by that car will blow people’s minds." And we knew they were doing some cutting edge manufacturing techniques in order to make this vehicle cheap enough to move the needle. But the aesthetic design is going to be just as important if Tesla wants to truly shock the car industry, and appeal to the masses. A beautiful vehicle, around $25k.
Guess we'll find out in about a year.
That may not be a great indicator if they are going unboxed with Optimus.
Krugerrand
Meow
What an odd statement of assumption to make.
Nowhere was any date stated by Tesla, a former Tesla employee, or even a media outlet when a breakdown of a Civic did or did not happen. Yet you made an assumption that it didn’t happen in an appropriate time period!?
More guesses and assumptions based on unconfirmed rumor from a media outlet known to be biased, incomplete with their information, often missing context, and many times blatantly lying, and what you defined as cryptic comments.
What? Anyone paying attention knows the vehicles were named to spell the word sexy and had nothing to do with the size of the vehicle.
Question(s). And no ‘we’ aren’t waiting for those answers. YOU might be waiting.
What I’m waiting for is people to learn a little patience, for people to stop making assumptions, for people to stop taking the media at any word they spout, and for people to stop stating opinions as though they are facts. Obviously, I will die unsatisfied on all front.
Appears to be be rumors at this point but not surprising if intentionally leaked given today's earning report and TSLA/EV challenges. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.
Elon responded favorably to the CT inspired econo car concept. There could be some minor cues taken otherwise so far CT production has been likened to digging a grave and for many it's more of a freak show and not visually appealing.
ChooseFreedom
Member
Wow grumpy cat, you must be fun at parties.
Of course all of this is speculation.
Just having some fun with some harmless thought experiments. Do we really need to disclaimer all of our posts on here?
Give me a break.
Yeah, the first 4 vehicles were named to spell S3XY. So what. It's already spelled. That's done. Can't add to it.
Now, it just so happens that the 2 SUV-like vehicles in the lineup are X & Y, so a speculative guess could lead one to lean toward Z if this new vehicle is a smaller SUV/crossover? Am I making some claim that Model Z will definitely be the name? No, I am not.
I've also called it the Model 2 and Mini Y in previous posts. It'll probably end up being something completely different. Who cares?
Project Redwood refers to the whole project, not just the car.
Why am I even wasting my time validating my opinions? Yours obviously differ from mine. That's ok. You don't see me attacking them.
Moving on.
ChooseFreedom
Member
The CT is polarizing. Kind of a love-hate situation. That's fine for a niche product.
But for the new supposedly "affordable" econo car for the masses, you don't want that. It needs to appeal to as many as possible.
It takes time to change public opinions. And if the CT was a first attempt at that, it has a long way to go. People need time to get used to seeing them more in person. So IMO, you don't rush that design into the new model next year.
There are plenty of aspects from the CT that could go in the new one, like steer-by-wire, 24Volt tech, for examples. The things that aren't in the aesthetic design. But just from a marketing perspective, making the new vehicle look anything like the CT I feel would be a mistake.
The CT doesn't have the global appeal. It's too big for many Asian and Euro urban cities. So most of those consumers won't even see CT's in person. That can put a perceived social negative on the CT, as it can seen as a western culture excess vehicle.
Do you really want to try to sell a vehicle to those consumers that looks like something they might already hate? No.
The 3 & Y are big sellers in those markets. If it ain't broke, don't try to fix it. Make the new car look similar to what's already selling well.
The moment Tesla tries to outthink themselves by looking at, say BYD, and tries to differentiate themselves with a CT-looking car, they've lost. BYD is copying Tesla. They are the follower. Don't adjust what you're doing just for the sake of being different. You're already different and in the lead. You have a decade head start. So what if they outsell you one quarter. What else do they do better than you? The numbers will even out, and Tesla's advantages will show over time. If anything, it's the "American car company" persona that's hurting sales in those markets. Why make it worse with a CT-looking car?
navguy12
Active Member
Elon just stated on the call that production would start H2 next year. He also said towards the end of the year.
Tesla are building major bespoke machines that will build the vehicle!
Tesla are building major bespoke machines that will build the vehicle!
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Paint for the Gen3 car is interesting...
I imagine parts to be painted are travelling on a belt similar to an airport luggage carousel, or a Sushi-train.
When considering the vertical space needed for painting it may be as little as 3 feet or 1 metre, They might need a similar space above for maintenance access so left's just call it... 6 feet or 2 metres all up.
My point here is they could vertically stack painting in say 5 different colors at the same time very easily...
The next consideration is the inside face (facing down on the belt), flipping the panels over during the painting process is a hassle. Normally the whole car is dipped in (zinc) rust proofing,,., There are also kinds of metal sheets that go on roofs that are rust resistant, (aluminium is one option). if there is a lightweight rust-proof metal sheet that can be used for the panel for around the same cost as painting the panel with rust proofing, then painting the inside face can be skipped and no paint can be an option, perhaps the cheapest option.
Of course this paint shop isn't something Tesla can buy "off-the-shelf", they would need to design and build it.
I imagine parts to be painted are travelling on a belt similar to an airport luggage carousel, or a Sushi-train.
When considering the vertical space needed for painting it may be as little as 3 feet or 1 metre, They might need a similar space above for maintenance access so left's just call it... 6 feet or 2 metres all up.
My point here is they could vertically stack painting in say 5 different colors at the same time very easily...
The next consideration is the inside face (facing down on the belt), flipping the panels over during the painting process is a hassle. Normally the whole car is dipped in (zinc) rust proofing,,., There are also kinds of metal sheets that go on roofs that are rust resistant, (aluminium is one option). if there is a lightweight rust-proof metal sheet that can be used for the panel for around the same cost as painting the panel with rust proofing, then painting the inside face can be skipped and no paint can be an option, perhaps the cheapest option.
Of course this paint shop isn't something Tesla can buy "off-the-shelf", they would need to design and build it.
I think he also said it was a typical Elon optimistic start date so no guarantees.
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