Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Rarity]

I see a lot of the CT as design exercises for Lunar or Martian vehicles. Pressurized battery packs, 4 wheel steering, Steer by wire, adaptive steering ratios, adaptive suspension, meteor resistant cabin and mostly planar design where possible. This is very efficient for containerization for the StarShip. The Lunar rovers will have a lot in common with the CT IMO.

Right now the challenge is to finish Optimus and extend capabilities (particularly for low gravity utility). Really understand making batteries. Deliver the promise of StarShip. Explore AI abilities. And find a way for Earthly products to fund the leap into space which is likely to be a new line of very popular vehicles and some not so cheap bots for early adopters (and FSD).

I am sure I have gotten a lot of this wrong and missed some things but this is my thinking. We are entering an age when it is not about exit strategies for venture capital and IPOs. We are entering an age of breathtaking leaps starting with fleets of orbital ships, Lunar colonies and planetary expeditions.

Your post is a little far out there, but not so far as to be unrealistic. SpaceX will be landing on the moon in 2025 or 2026. It will be the uncrewed precursor to the NASA crewed mission in 2026-2028. Tesla will have a great opportunity to get at least Optimus to the moon, if it is ready. A follow up to Starman in the Tesla Roadster. Priceless marketing. The elevator for these missions appears to be inadequate for Cybertruck, but maybe future versions will be Cybertruck-ready.

Much of the human training for lunar missions is being done in a swimming pool in Houston. It is unclear to me what training method Optimus would use. You could imagine some teleoperation from Earth being utilized, if training is not quite ready while the hardware is ready. Round-trip latency to the moon is about 3 seconds, so teleoperation is quite possible, if a bit awkward.

They will attempt to take off from the moon as well. So you could imagine Optimus the prospecting geologist that gathers moon rocks for return to Earth. Or Optimus the ditch digger and regolith concrete pourer that prepares a landing pad for future missions.

 

[2daMoon]

Certainly not true. I clearly remember Elon talking about how they want to take on F150 (and noting that is the largest selling vehicle in US) and recling trucks is an important part of electrification. He even said - if the CT design/looks is too polarizing they will make a "normal" truck that will sell in large numbers to take on F150. This was in some interview / podcast ....

Please, do dig up a reference to support your claim.

If it is more definitive than being some off-hand comment said in jest, I'd be surprised.

 

[GOVA]

My wife and I watched the 3 Equalizer movies this week. 2 on Hulu and 1 on Netflix. Amazed me how many EV advertisements that were pushed to us. I have never seen so many. Not the type I really would want to see from Tesla, but I didnt expect to see so many. Dont know if it is because we are in Florida now.

Which that many EVs did they advertise? Curious. I do have all ads disabled.

 

[30seconds]

The hype that cybertruck ramping and plans were sandbagged and that it would overtake the F150 did not come from Tesla. That hype was generated here in this thread.

At this point, I think the posts about Tesla sandbagging and pushing optimism beyond what Tesla stated are just as bad as the posts from people about how Elon lied, Tesla is doomed, etc.

My opinion is that this thread should aim for facts in both numbers and what was actually said. Elon doesn't sandbag. He's an optimistic, which results in the opposite of sandbaggging.

The S, X, 3 and Y all led their vehicle class because of the leap they all delivered. If the CT wasn't going to be a top seller in its class why prioritize its development?

Right now it seems more like the X. A technological tour de force but with an idiosyncratic design that significantly limits demand.

If the X was released as a more traditional three row SUV it would have absolutely crushed the large lux SUV market.

 

[hobbes]

After 4.5 years of having been heavily restricted in AutoPilot and 2 years after the first DCAS regulations should have been approved, the GRVA has finally approved the DCAS regulation in its first iteration at the end of January 2024. This means that we will finally be able to get FSD beta here in Europe (and the other UNECE countries) in January 2025.

Now, there are some really specific details in the regulations, so in this video I cover what exactly has been approved. Sadly, it is not all good news :-(

 

[woof]

He said this last year:

"My prediction is we will go from an extreme silicon shortage today, to probably a voltage transformer shortage in a year, and then an electricity shortage in a year into two years".

Yeah, we all know he's not great at timing, but he's generally right.

Electricity shortage sounds scary.

I believe these predictions are at the data center level. So the electricity shortage he's predicting here is at at individual data centers, not at your house or city.

In order to increase the AI compute capability in a given location (data center) you need to have the chips. Right now there's a shortage of AI chips, i.e. a silicon shortage (and the corresponding valuation of NVIDA). Once you can get the chips and build a box, you need electricity to power it. As these chips get more powerful, the electrical power needed per rack increases beyond what they were originally designed to handle. Upgrading the transformers can help (high power transformer shortage). And eventually the electric power available from the power companies to the Data Center becomes the limiting factor--thus the predicted electricity shortage--for AI compute--not for charging your car.

--Woof!

 

[EVNow]

Please, do dig up a reference to support your claim.

If it is more definitive than being some off-hand comment said in jest, I'd be surprised.

When I'm completely jobless I'll waste my time doing that - it should be simple enough to search if you are really interested.

BTW, this is the reason a lot of us have stopped posting in this thread. This thread now gets 1/10th of the traffic it used to.

 

[Krugerrand]

The S, X, 3 and Y all led their vehicle class because of the leap they all delivered. If the CT wasn't going to be a top seller in its class why prioritize its development?

Explained by Elon and several people here many times.

Additionally, I’ll point out that the goal of S, X, 3 and Y was NOT to lead their class. The fact they did was a bonus due to them being such fantastic vehicles in their own rights.

You’ve either forgotten what the mission is or been confused by the media, financial analysts, and others spouting off about what’s important to the company.

 

[EVMeister]

When I'm completely jobless I'll waste my time doing that - it should be simple enough to search if you are really interested.

BTW, this is the reason a lot of us have stopped posting in this thread. This thread now gets 1/10th of the traffic it used to.

Elon Musk: Tesla would sell 'normal' pickup if CyberTruck doesn't sell

Musk says Tesla has a backup plan for its CyberTruck. "If nobody wants to buy a weird-looking truck, we'll build a normal truck, no problem."

www.google.com

 

[hobbes]

Anyone have handy the percentage of Tesla sales adds within China (not export) to Tesla’s bottom line profits? If China’s economy falters and dumps through the rest of 2024 wouldn’t that add more pressure on TSLA and hinder any recovery for the SP anytime soon and even depress it more?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750332444547428616

 

[Ellec]

The S, X, 3 and Y all led their vehicle class because of the leap they all delivered. If the CT wasn't going to be a top seller in its class why prioritize its development?

Right now it seems more like the X. A technological tour de force but with an idiosyncratic design that significantly limits demand.

If the X was released as a more traditional three row SUV it would have absolutely crushed the large lux SUV market.

If it "only" sells 250k a year that could add another ~$15-$20 billion in revenue, it's better to have multiple products even if some aren't home runs like 3/Y.

 

[Electroman]

Which that many EVs did they advertise? Curious. I do have all ads disabled.

.. rather how are they selling? in good numbers I would think because, you know it is being aDverTIsed

There is your answer to question on this topic..

 

[aronth5]

Your post is a little far out there, but not so far as to be unrealistic. SpaceX will be landing on the moon in 2025 or 2026. It will be the uncrewed precursor to the NASA crewed mission in 2026-2028. Tesla will have a great opportunity to get at least Optimus to the moon, if it is ready. A follow up to Starman in the Tesla Roadster. Priceless marketing. The elevator for these missions appears to be inadequate for Cybertruck, but maybe future versions will be Cybertruck-ready.

Much of the human training for lunar missions is being done in a swimming pool in Houston. It is unclear to me what training method Optimus would use. You could imagine some teleoperation from Earth being utilized, if training is not quite ready while the hardware is ready. Round-trip latency to the moon is about 3 seconds, so teleoperation is quite possible, if a bit awkward.

They will attempt to take off from the moon as well. So you could imagine Optimus the prospecting geologist that gathers moon rocks for return to Earth. Or Optimus the ditch digger and regolith concrete pourer that prepares a landing pad for future missions.

Average of minus 298F at night and minus 224F daytime on the moon with drastic temperature difference between sun and shade so I highly doubt Optimus without significant changes is ready for the harshness of space. People underestimate how hard space is. Mars is balmy in comparison with an average of -64 at the equator, midday.

 

[jerry33]

Elon Musk: Tesla would sell 'normal' pickup if CyberTruck doesn't sell

Musk says Tesla has a backup plan for its CyberTruck. "If nobody wants to buy a weird-looking truck, we'll build a normal truck, no problem."

www.google.com

It's more likely that future trucks from everyone will mimic the Cybertruck.

 

[2daMoon]

The S, X, 3 and Y all led their vehicle class because of the leap they all delivered. If the CT wasn't going to be a top seller in its class why prioritize its development?

Yes, there's nothing like a four year span from reveal to production to clearly signify Tesla prioritizing its development.

CT was created as a test bed for new technologies and production methods. No paint, tough folded Stainless Steel bodies, 48v nervous system, steer by wire, rear wheel steering, integrated bed cover, aerodynamic shape, and more.

Besides, it was fun. Think of it more like a Roadster than any of the other, more normal models.

 

[FreqFlyer]

The S, X, 3 and Y all led their vehicle class because of the leap they all delivered. If the CT wasn't going to be a top seller in its class why prioritize its development?

Right now it seems more like the X. A technological tour de force but with an idiosyncratic design that significantly limits demand.

If the X was released as a more traditional three row SUV it would have absolutely crushed the large lux SUV market.

If Tesla doesn't the competition will. The Kia EV9 is a demonstration of that and there are at last three more companies bringing three-row EVs to the market.

 

[2daMoon]

When I'm completely jobless I'll waste my time doing that - it should be simple enough to search if you are really interested.

BTW, this is the reason a lot of us have stopped posting in this thread. This thread now gets 1/10th of the traffic it used to.

I'm only interested in facts, rather than merely what you think you remember understanding someone else say. You make a lot of claims like that which others seem to remember differently.

The entire premise of many of your statements never seem to have been fact-checked by you before posting them. Then, you vehemently defend them as if we should just take your word for it.

You respond to others who call your bluff with bluster, but still without any reference that would support what you think you heard vs what many others remember differently.

Maybe you are just one of those people who think they are never wrong.

I'm always ready to accept being wrong, but it is always up to the person making a claim that something was said in a recorded event to show us the goods.

Or, alternatively, you could accept how you might be mistaken, and avoid making claims you can not or will not take the time to validate when questioned.

 

[lascavarian]

The elevator for these missions appears to be inadequate for Cybertruck, but maybe future versions will be Cybertruck-ready.

Agreed, CT proven technology is the key. Lunar rovers may use 4 wheel steering and steer by wire and smaller/lighter 48 v motor tech, AI etc

Although I love SS on the CT, I think coiled SS rolls will be lifted to orbit as a material and the knowledge/skills from CT fabrication will be key to making orbit and the moon a habitable possibility that will excite and accelerate a hopeful future IMO.

 

[Thekiwi]

Re: Dojo

Reminder that Elon says Tesla is like a bunch of different startups. Dojo is one of those start ups.

Startups have a high failure rate, so we shouldn’t be surprised when occasionally one of Tesla’s projects fails.

Not saying Dojo will neccesarily fail, but if it does Tesla will be just fine.

Multiple senior staff of Dojo leaving a few months ago, and Elons comments on the earnings call is enough to be cautious on its chances of success. Plus Nvidia is absolutely executing flawlessly lately and has decades of experience building these as its core mission, pretty tough job trying to catch up to them let alone pass them.

In the end Dojo may end up in a similar state to the Solar Roof, which management previously hyped as a major product that would ramp to 1000+ installs per week, but instead has ended up a low volume premium product that no one would even notice if Tesla stopped offering it. In that light if Dojo ends up as one of teslas multiple FSD training resources alongside NVIDIA data centres etc, it was still worth an attempt.

 

[Rarity]

Multiple senior staff of Dojo leaving a few months ago, and Elons comments on the earnings call is enough to be cautious on its chances of success. Plus Nvidia is absolutely executing flawlessly lately and has decades of experience building these as its core mission, pretty tough job trying to catch up to them let alone pass them.

Senior staff leaving is not necessarily negative, although it may warrant taking a close look to determine. Musk fired the whole top management of Starlink because it was going too slowly. Well, you know the results of that...