Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

Out of curiosity, do people here think TSLA short sellers use TA for guidance in some way? If not, what do they use to decide when to short and when to buy back? Like any market timers they need to time the market correctly twice.

They seem to pay only passing attention to Tesla’s fundamentals and, presumably, those on the Street ignore the vomit of FUD they themselves help give their pliant "journalists" to spew.

Obviously, it would easier to defeat them if we know what they watched, so they likely try to mask that.

Genuinely curious just how blind they’re flying.

Isn't it the Hedge Funds and MMs decide the SP and so know when to short and when to cover. I suspect retail shorts just short when there is lots of shorting going on. When there are enough retail shorts, then the HFs and MMs raise the SP and rake in the loot.

 

[2daMoon]

Out of curiosity, do people here think TSLA short sellers use TA for guidance in some way? If not, what do they use to decide when to short and when to buy back? Like any market timers they need to time the market correctly twice.

They seem to pay only passing attention to Tesla’s fundamentals and, presumably, those on the Street ignore the vomit of FUD they themselves help give their pliant "journalists" to spew.

Obviously, it would easier to defeat them if we know what they watched, so they likely try to mask that.

Genuinely curious just how blind they’re flying.

Perhaps the Shorties collaborate, meeting in a secret lair, while also experimenting with sharks that have had lasers mounted on their heads, as they plot world destruction.

 

[Speedr117]

New CNBS low:

GM to release plug-in hybrid vehicles, backtracking on product plans​

• General Motors is changing its product lineup strategy to include plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, CEO Mary Barra told investors Tuesday.
• Barra did not disclose specific details of the plans other than that plug-in hybrids will be rolled out on select vehicles in North America to assist in meeting more stringent federal fuel economy regulations.
• GM led the way in plug-in electric vehicles with the Chevrolet Volt during the 2010s. The company discontinued the vehicle in early 2019, citing demand and cost concerns.

So GM really did lead...

 

[hitchhiker]

So GM really did lead...

...right into the ground.

 

[Puma2020]

As if we needed to ramp up any more CT demand...

Tesla Cybertruck high-speed session shows need for Track Mode

After a day at the track, one thing was evident -- Tesla should consider releasing a dedicated Track Mode feature for the Cybertruck.

www.teslarati.com

Reasonable article. CT is not perfect (yet) but it is fun to drive on or off the track.

 

[ggr]

Mod: Notwithstanding that some people thanked the mods, the discussion about the delivery problem video has gone way too far, and descended into acrimony. It's now a banned subject for the time being. --ggr

 

[Electroman]

Nice, but I think it’s a pretty safe bet that most people do not have a setup like yours.
My 2023 LG G3 OLED tries to connect more than 20.000 times in a month to servers on the internet that collect data.
But enough, let’s keep things on investing in this thread.
Just wanted to make people aware that TV producing companies sell your data.

Interesting.. I had no idea..

 

[hobbes]

R&D stayed at 4% of revenue and SG&A stayed at 5% of revenue.
R&D spend is loosely linked to vehicle production. Do you expect it will see decreases in 2024 due to Cybertruck entering production along with the 4680 lines, and increases due to NN investment and unboxed process development? Is Nvidia compute CapEx, but not Dojo? Is the power bill for NN training R&D or SG&A.

@The Accountant ´s post you replied to ("lower per car") and yours ("same per revenue") regarding R&D and SG&A spending are both true because ASP declined, correct? So you are not contradicting each other here?

 

[The Accountant]

@The Accountant ´s post you replied to ("lower per car") and yours ("same per revenue") regarding R&D and SG&A spending are both true because ASP declined, correct? So you are not contradicting each other here?

Yes that's right, both are true.

 

[mongo]

@The Accountant ´s post you replied to ("lower per car") and yours ("same per revenue") regarding R&D and SG&A spending are both true because ASP declined, correct? So you are not contradicting each other here?

Yah, lower because vehicle sales increased and no disagreement, just adding context.

 

[hobbes]

OK - the person in control is ready to let Tesla run !!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1752358277541757137

And Elon doesn´t seem to mind, replied "Thanks" on X..
Playing nice with Wall street this time

 

[EQC_]

Or even send those paper 'recall' notices on cheaper paper. /

I've gotten paper recall notices on other cars, but never gotten one from Tesla. I assumed they didn't send them out, since normally the software issue is solved before the recall is even made official. Are other folks actually getting recall notices from Tesla in the mail? (I got my Model Y in December 2021, so I think I've been through at least one software-related recall notice).

 

[jerry33]

I've gotten paper recall notices on other cars, but never gotten one from Tesla. I assumed they didn't send them out, since normally the software issue is solved before the recall is even made official. Are other folks actually getting recall notices from Tesla in the mail? (I got my Model Y in December 2021, so I think I've been through at least one software-related recall notice).

I think I recall a paper notice for the airbag deployment recall. That was for the 2013 and every car manufacturer had recalls for airbags during that time. However, there was also a paper manual with the 2013, so it likely isn't relevant today.

 

[2daMoon]

I think I recall a paper notice for the airbag deployment recall. That was for the 2013 and every car manufacturer had recalls for airbags during that time. However, there was also a paper manual with the 2013, so it likely isn't relevant today.

I heard a rumor that all future Tesla recall notices will be printed on the remaining supply of premium toilet paper that has now been replaced with institutional TP in a recent cost-cutting measure.

 

[EQC_]

Unboxed doesn't require multu-unit paint-matching. They could paint the panels and door at the same time and track them afterwards to feed to final assembly so they reunite on the same vehicle. However, that is more of a logistics pain.
Early 2020 Model Y in Pearl White showed signs that Tesla was not tracking simultaneously painted pieces.

Unboxing does require a frame attachment/ bonding system that can be done without damaging already installed paint and accessories.

I think part of the "trick" is not paint-matching parts that don't really need it. So, really only the doors, fenders, hood, trunk lid, and bumpers need paint...and those could be done at the same time and kept together, as you note. But the structural parts of the car that are usually hidden won't need to match in color.

On most cars today, for example, the door frame that is only visible when the doors are open are also paint-matched. Likewise with parts under the hood and inside the trunk. If I remember correctly from the presentation about the Unboxed process, the "normal" way of doing things is basically building the entire car structure with doors attached...painting everything (frame/structure, outer panels, doors, etc.), then taking off the doors (and perhaps trunk lid and hood) to continue with assembly...and then re-attaching the doors at the end. All of the "extra paint" goes away with the unboxed process.

Relatedly, on the Cybertruck, the exterior panels are stainless, and I believe the visible parts of the door frames when the doors are opened are black. Looks perfectly fine visually; it is obvious it's not supposed to match. But it's interesting that the non-visible parts are coated (black, probably for corosion resistance on the structural-steel door frames and pillars), and not matched to the body at all.

If the unboxed process does something similar, with the not-normally-visible parts being left unpainted or just coated some default color for protection, then that's a large piece that doesn't need to be matched back up or tracked with the set. Paint only the visible exterior panels that need paint, batch them for matching and track, and all the stuff that doesn't need to match gets some cheaper/simpler coating and doesn't need to be tracked and matched.

Potentially related side note: I remember there were stories about Tesla having issues painting more and more cars in Fremont because air quality standars limited how much paint could be used. Soon after, every Tesla came with an all-glass roof -- that is a whole bunch of surface area that doesn't need paint anymore. I feel like the limits from the regulation motivated them...and in the end, it's probably a better product with simpler manufacturing. Painting even less of the car in the Unboxed process seems like another leap in that direction.

Or, perhaps the Unboxed process means every car will look like a Harlequin Golf. Every panel a different color, on purpose, so nothing needs to match .

 

[mongo]

I've gotten paper recall notices on other cars, but never gotten one from Tesla. I assumed they didn't send them out, since normally the software issue is solved before the recall is even made official. Are other folks actually getting recall notices from Tesla in the mail? (I got my Model Y in December 2021, so I think I've been through at least one software-related recall notice).

I *think* Tesla fixes the defect via OTA before the time when they must send notification letters. As a result, by the time the letters do need to be sent, the population that still has the defect is small. Thus, unless there is a hardware issue or you have no connectivity, you won't get any recall notices.

 

[hobbes]

Matrix high beams working finally! (Video from Spain)

https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaModel3/comments/1aeih19

 

[mongo]

I think part of the "trick" is not paint-matching parts that don't really need it. So, really only the doors, fenders, hood, trunk lid, and bumpers need paint...and those could be done at the same time and kept together, as you note. But the structural parts of the car that are usually hidden won't need to match in color. On most cars today, for example, the door frame that is only visible when the doors are open are also paint-matched. Perhaps this goes away with the Unboxed process. Similarly, on the Cybertruck, the exterior panels are stainless, and I believe the visible parts of the door frames when the doors are opened are black. Looks perfectly fine visually. It's obvious not supposed to match. If the unboxed process does something similar, with the not-normally-visible parts being left unpainted or just coated some default color for protection, then that's a large piece that doesn't need to be matched back up or tracked with the set.

Or, perhaps the Unboxed process means every car will look like a Harlequin Golf. Every panel a different color, on purpose, so nothing needs to match .

Yeah, although some of those hidden parts are connected to the visible parts. Side panels are also the fenders, front and rear may not need color matched paint since those are bumper covers and hood/ trunk deck.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I see your point for traditional fixed manufacturing lines and there will be some of that.

Outside the box thinking focuses exactly on hands. Imagine tasks reduced to hand functions. AI moves among bots delivering as many hands as required for each task. Complete flexibility by the second.

Bots work in twins, trips or quads to deliver the necessary hand tasks with complete positional flexibility. We have to be open to such opportunities and how bots can open possibilities largely unthinkable by traditional approaches.

It’s gona be fun!

I’m struggling with the idea that lightweight bots with 5x the moving parts of a kuka, plus batteries, are a step forward. If the kuka *can* do it, or an even simpler machine with even fewer parts can do it, those machines *should* do it. Longer life. Less maint. Less traffic in the corridors.

(Bot’s advantage is hot swapability. Problem? Off to bot hospital, staffed by bots. Perhaps somebody who has worked with one armed heavy robots can comment on mean time between fail. I don’t carry spare tyres these days. Hasn’t burned me yet. The odds allow that, touch wood.)

Only where the kuka can’t, it’s a bot job. Where the bot can’t, it’s a human job, until such time as the bot can.

For making Semis or Megapacks I’d have no reservations. Bots galore. But with next Gen they have to make millions at high cadence, the higher the better, so it feels worth the effort to build specialised machines.

Thought exercise. Will a home (w yard) with a future bot have a dishwasher? A washing machine? A drier? No, yes, no, says my intuition. Could be wrong. Only certainty is that things will change.

 

[MP3Mike]

I *think* Tesla fixes the defect via OTA before the time when they must send notification letters. As a result, by the time the letters do need to be sent, the population that still has the defect is small. Thus, unless there is a hardware issue or you have no connectivity, you won't get any recall notices.

I think NHTSA changed the rules "recently" and paper notices are now required to be sent for all recalls. Even if they have already been resolved before the notice is sent out.

For the recent AP recall I think the notices are supposed to go out about February 10th, so we will know for sure shortly after that. (Though I don't think the recall has been satisfied for AP1 vehicles yet. And maybe not AP2/2.5 vehicles, as the latest SB says this: