Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ellec]

At this point, I think it goes way beyond artificially depressing the SP to buy shares on the cheap. Indeed, I don’t think it’s that at all. I won’t bore people with my conspiracy theory.

My father is really, really, really considering his first EV. It’ll be the last vehicle he buys in this lifetime. As a mechanic his whole life, he’s been having a real hard time undoing decades of ICE knowledge and expertise. I keep having to tell him, ‘Dad, it doesn’t work that way with a Tesla.’ (Absolutely I will not allow him to buy anything but a Tesla.)

As I eluded to recently, I had a several hour conversation (read spirited debate)with him the other day about many things Tesla related that he’d learned by listening/reading news/media and the like.

He’s not a gullible man. He’s not slow witted. He has a healthy amount of skepticism regarding the media, but even with all that I had to set him straight on a few matters.

Now the typical reaction to that is ‘Tesla, needs to do this or that to educate people, rebut the media, yadda, yadda, yadda.’

Meh. It wouldn’t make a significant difference overall. Linking people to Tesla produced information (like their blog, impact reports etc) doesn’t suddenly make people believe. Indeed, they can often think the company is lying because company’s do often lie, so for them ‘what makes Tesla different in that regard?’. In many cases an ‘independent’ source is more believable to them.

*This* has to run its course. The good, the bad, and the ugly of it all. People as a whole have to arrive at the right answer on their own, in their own way, or it means nothing will change, nothing can change for the better of mankind.

I feel despair for Elon, his companies, all the employees, all who are working so very hard to help us all and who are constantly being spit upon. It’s classic good vs evil. I believe the good win this time, though, not without a lot of casualties along the way.

One silver lining is any publicity is good publicity in terms of Tesla brand name recognition, it being constantly in the press means it's a global brand now with the likes of Apple, Coca-Cola etc. Both those companies have had their share of click bait stories over the years.

 

[lafrisbee]

I really hope Tesla does away with price cuts. Most potential buyers are counting on further price reductions and are therefore not buying Tesla cars at the moment. These cars have already got the reputation of fastest depreciation. The Model Y LR went from $63k at the end of 2022 to $45k at the end of 2023. This was a 30% price reduction. If someone doesn't buy a Tesla after the drastic price cuts in 2023, it is not because of price.

You are looking at the wrong thing. Very Very few people buy a product because of a "Drastic price cut."
People buy according to the price/monthly payment. Yes many people bought a Tesla recently that did not buy one earlier because the amount/price became affordable. And had nothing to do with amount of the "Drastic price cuts."
(And yet, I do pay attention to price discounts when buying large ticket items of which I am not knowledgeable. But I consider it because the item because it is now in my "affordable range." I just bought a XR85X90CK. It's just a big 2022 Sony Bravia TV from the Sony employee Store because it originally cost $3000, for employees it is $1200. Outside the store it sells for a little under $2000. The Model is still being released this year.
But "Around a grand" was my price. Some of the other tv's were getting $5000 discounts, and still cost $4000. I did not consider them.)

 

[Knightshade]

That's not the way it works. Learning is cumulative. Just because FSD is better in San Francisco does not make it worse somewhere else.

It might if people drive differently there.

This is one of the reasons driving is a really hard problem.

AI could get great at Go or Chess because every time you sit down the rules are the same. The knight always moves the same way, on every chess board, in every country.

Driving is much more locally different than that. The simplest example is it's legal to turn right on red some places and not others... heck it's legal to turn LEFT on red some places and not others. And those rules can vary not just by state, but even by city, or PART of a city. And there's often not signs making this super clear.

Without hardcoding that's a tough thing to "solve" for a general driving solution. And there's lots of other examples more subtle (differences in road markings, types of intersections, restricted lanes, signage, etc).

To be clear I don't think it's an unsolvable problem, but I DO think it means overfitting to one area CAN make it worse in others.

 

[KBF]

I love how everyone is standing one full parking space away from it. I may not need that pitbull afterall.

Everyone's afraid the sharp edges will cut them... Apparently it's so sharp you'll start bleeding if you get too close. /s

(Woah... Brain flashback to some kind of tv show/cartoon(?) in the 80's/90's that talked about a sword whose edge was so thin it would cut your skin before you could even see it cut you... My brain provides gif flashback/memory things sometimes...)

 

[mongo]

The recent guidance for IRA's modified Alternative Fuel Vehicle Refueling Property Credit (§30C) should mean Superchargers now gets 30% tax credit when installed in non-urban or low-income community areas. The IRS page for the credit links to a mapping tool that shows the newly spotted "IRA" supercharger cabinet in Verdi, NV is in an eligible census tract.

A quick recap of IRA changes to §30C:

• restores credit that expired in 2021
• increases credit from $30k per location to $100k per single item
• 30% credit only for eligible locations (dropping to 6% other locations)
• clarified vehicles that support bi-directional don't disqualify

Have people noticed more upcoming Superchargers in these eligible areas? Does the "single item" change effectively make basically the whole Supercharger cost (e.g., cabinets, stalls/posts, other equipment) eligible for the credit?

I can't find a definition for "single item". However, given previous estimates of $250k for a 4 post Supercharger and the peak item value of $100k/30% = $333k, I'm not sure it matters much (as long as 'point of use' is not so restrictive as to disqualify the cabinets).

Note: the 30% credit requires meeting the prevailing wage and apprenticeship requirements. Given Tesla's educational outreach in Texas, this seems achievable.

 

[jerry33]

The recent guidance for IRA's modified Alternative Fuel Vehicle Refueling Property Credit (§30C) should mean Superchargers now gets 30% tax credit when installed in non-urban or low-income community areas. The IRS page for the credit links to a mapping tool that shows the newly spotted "IRA" supercharger cabinet in Verdi, NV is in an eligible census tract.

A quick recap of IRA changes to §30C:

• restores credit that expired in 2021
• increases credit from $30k per location to $100k per single item
• 30% credit only for eligible locations (dropping to 6% other locations)
• clarified vehicles that support bi-directional don't disqualify

Have people noticed more upcoming Superchargers in these eligible areas? Does the "single item" change effectively make basically the whole Supercharger cost (e.g., cabinets, stalls/posts, other equipment) eligible for the credit?

Looking at the supercharge.info site and selecting only permit and construction there are 496 of which 2 are in Montana, 2 in North Dakota, 3 are in Missouri (but one is in Kansas City), 1 in Oklahoma (in Oklahoma City), 1 in Arkansas, 2 in Utah, 2 in Nevada, 5 in Texas (that aren't in big cities), and perhaps a dozen others in various states. So 18 plus a dozen or two elsewhere out of almost 500. At this time it doesn't appear there is any great push to open up Superchargers in less populous locations.

 

[philw1776]

Regarding Right on Red there's an intersection on75th & Rt64 in Bradenton where a white No Turn on Red LED sign pops up often & under control of crossing guards. It's way up high and nowhere near the traffic lights. Stuff like this and other drivers waving to you indicating you may proceed as I see you will make L5 and Robotaxi revenue $ a LONG way away.
Back to stock issues.

 

[jerry33]

It might if people drive differently there.

This is one of the reasons driving is a really hard problem.

AI could get great at Go or Chess because every time you sit down the rules are the same. The knight always moves the same way, on every chess board, in every country.

Driving is much more locally different than that. The simplest example is it's legal to turn right on red some places and not others... heck it's legal to turn LEFT on red some places and not others. And those rules can vary not just by state, but even by city, or PART of a city. And there's often not signs making this super clear.

Without hardcoding that's a tough thing to "solve" for a general driving solution. And there's lots of other examples more subtle (differences in road markings, types of intersections, restricted lanes, signage, etc).

To be clear I don't think it's an unsolvable problem, but I DO think it means overfitting to one area CAN make it worse in others.

Kind of agree. In Winnipeg the lights are always red, but green arrows (or lights) show in addition to the red lights to indicate when you can go (not just for turn, but for straight ahead as well. I don't know of any other city that does it this way. (It's been years since I've been in Winnipeg, so it's possible it's been changed.)

 

[philw1776]

This link for me at least gave free access to the whole article:

https://www.wsj.com/tech/elon-musk-tesla-money-drugs-board-61af9ac4

Really piling on the scrutiny of the “independent directors” and alleged lack of proper board performance.

- Details incidents where board members were doing illegal drugs with Musk.

- fleshes out more personal and business relationships between the independent directors and Musk.

- Also Larry Ellison and others suggested to Musk that he go into rehab in 2022 after his drug use got worse (timing seems to coincide with his “change” in twitter posting behavior).

- Also introduces the fact that Tesla May be in breach of NASDAQ listing requirements due to lack in the number of independent directors. If they were to receive a breach notice from NASDAQ, Tesla would still have 12 months to rectify the situation before potential delisting.

- identifies two board members who left for dissatisfaction from unsatisfactory board oversight, and their attempts to rectify were rebuffed.

Thumbs down received can be misleading. I rated this post as Informative as I wanted to see what the WSJ millennials were claiming about Tesla, its BOD, etc. Did I buy the FUD, No! But it got me behind the paywall. I read this Forum for information. I do not have to like it and maybe do not give it credence but it is important to know what's being broadcast to segments of the investing and buying public. This Forum can subsequently do a great job evaluating any such posts.

 

[Singuy]

It might if people drive differently there.

This is one of the reasons driving is a really hard problem.

AI could get great at Go or Chess because every time you sit down the rules are the same. The knight always moves the same way, on every chess board, in every country.

Driving is much more locally different than that. The simplest example is it's legal to turn right on red some places and not others... heck it's legal to turn LEFT on red some places and not others. And those rules can vary not just by state, but even by city, or PART of a city. And there's often not signs making this super clear.

Without hardcoding that's a tough thing to "solve" for a general driving solution. And there's lots of other examples more subtle (differences in road markings, types of intersections, restricted lanes, signage, etc).

To be clear I don't think it's an unsolvable problem, but I DO think it means overfitting to one area CAN make it worse in others.

Tesla should be working on a way to crowd source these edge case. Right now V12 is focused on driving behavior, but it could still mean the map lacks detail like which intersection having these special modifiers. I think once they nail the driving behavior down, as in the car can generally drive anywhere like any human, then it's a matter of time to fill in those gaps of information that any human new to the city would lack as well.

 

[AudubonB]

"Tesla opens it's first store in South America, but not in Brazil"
…
in Portuguese, choose your favorite translator.
'The gist is that here in Brazil we're anxious and slightly dismayed to see our nice little neighbor get preference to our huge, automating, raw material plentiful selves. Frankly we are jealous!
Just to ensure that the message is clear to Tesla, BYD is not ignoring us because they now …

Choose? Okay: My favorite translator is @unk45.

 

[SunCatcher]

Everyone's afraid the sharp edges will cut them... Apparently it's so sharp you'll start bleeding if you get too close. /s

(Woah... Brain flashback to some kind of tv show/cartoon(?) in the 80's/90's that talked about a sword whose edge was so thin it would cut your skin before you could even see it cut you... My brain provides gif flashback/memory things sometimes...)

Magnetism. People are so drawn to the Cybertruck when they see it that they subconsciously worry that it might just have some kind of magnetic tractor beam that won't let go. Which in a way is true.
I say this because that's what happened to me.

 

[mad474]

I am beside myself with excitement! Rumor has it that the Cybertruck is coming to Germany, especially to Stuttgart (Tesla delivery center Holzgerlingen, very close by). Unfortunately (for now) only as an exhibit, but still. A great start.

If the rumor turns out to be true, I'll pitch my tent in front of the showroom and be there every day (if my vacation request is approved).

By the way, on the thread topic: Last week I was able to get my stock to my target size, a nice round number. Liquidity therefore close to zero. Now the share price can rise again. Many thanks to the (non-)advisors here in the forum! Hurrah!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1754124475778359471

 

[lascavarian]

That's not the way it works. Learning is cumulative. Just because FSD is better in San Francisco does not make it worse somewhere else.

I don’t think this computes. It will make it different. Maybe not worse but we don’t know in certainty. When you change the training data by the addition of different (rainy) data, you get a different result. That’s why it is done.

Nothing in this process can prevent regression. Over sample in SF will change the FSD experience in St Louis for example. Every time training data evolves results evolve.

The “march of nines” is about choices among various training sets.

Build a training set and do comparisons. The methods may change/improve to minimize regression but in the end there will be a choice.

My viewpoint does not matter. We will get what we get as time marches on. Success is one of the possible outcomes.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

"Tesla opens it's first store in South America, but not in Brazil"

Tesla inaugura sua 1ª loja na América do Sul, mas não é no Brasil

Tesla escolhe país da América do Sul para inaugurar sua primeira loja física no continente; veja onde fica.

multiversonoticias.com.br

in Portuguese, choose your favorite translator.
'The gist is that here in Brazil we're anxious and slightly dismayed to see our nice little neighbor get preference to our huge, automating, raw material plentiful selves. Frankly we are jealous!
Just to ensure that the message is clear to Tesla, BYD is not ignoring us because they now have solar panels, busses, batteries all made here, and soon BYD will open that giant Bahia factory they bought from Ford, after which they will produce large numbers of electric cars.' I did not make quotation marks on this extract since it summarizes TV commentators, press reports and personal comment made to me from interested friends.

When considering that early 2024 results in Europe show ~9% of sales from new countries, mostly small ones, we might expect that might well be true in other places too. Chile is narrow and very long, so Supercharger coverage can be national, North to South with extra coverage for Santiago de Chile, Valparaiso and Concepción, the three significant cities..with ~30 Supercharger locations, or even fewer, especially with a scattering of Destination chargers. Consider also that Chile makes no cars. Then, if the decide to Really do it well, they could ship Tesla Energy products plus cars and a handful of Destination chargers to Isla de Pascoa (Easter Island) where a total Tesla Energy solution would save large amounts of shipping of fossil fuel to that remote picturesque tourist destination.

Without belaboring the specifics of Chile, the inevitable comparisons to many other remote islands show just how easy it can be to solve huge expense problems for fuel imports as well as generating useful income and, in many cases, huge publicity from tourist exposure.

Then, for those who haven't noticed, here is an unexpected prospect:
Just for clarity, here is the Clean Technica version :

All EVs In Ethiopia Now Exempted From VAT, Surtax, & Excise Tax - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! A number of countries in Africa depend on fossil fuel imports to meet their energy requirements in the transport sector. These fossil fuel imports constitute a good chunk of the total import bill, draining...

cleantechnica.com

For those unfamiliar:

Ethiopia travel

Explore Ethiopia holidays and discover the best time and places to visit.

www.lonelyplanet.com

Making a serious effort to supply both Tesla Energy and Auto to Ethiopia would have large benefit, not least by leading Kenya and Tanzania, to name two, to adopt similar policies. As a relevant aside, all of East Africa has been a traditional destination for used cars, and BEV need be no exception. Of course there are LHD and RHD markets, and Singapore, Japan and the UK are all suppliers fo used cars for these markets.

Of course Elon is more familiar than most with South Africa, another much larger opportunity.

Now that European smaller markets are proving successful and Chile is setting the Mercosur stage it seems inevitable that integrated Tesla Energy and automotive moves in much of Africa and many Pacific islands, perhaps starting with Chile and the French islands, where regulation and homologation are already done on the mainland. Tahiti and Bora Bora, like others, would save giant expenses with total electrification.

Check with Larry Ellison for references

Brazil's bigger but Chile's a more favorable market. It's a natural entry point for them.

 

[Tony73]

That's not the way it works. Learning is cumulative. Just because FSD is better in San Francisco does not make it worse somewhere else.

FSD V12 needs more training in rainy areas because it needs more training in rainy areas. Once that happens, V12 will get better at driving in the rain. But that won't make it worse in San Francisco.

If you oversample in a geofenced area, the FSD will get really good at driving in that area. But that won't make it worse anywhere else. And while it is getting good at driving in the geofenced area it will still get better driving other places as more and more training data is used from those other places.

I think we need to understand that geofencing is the only way to get started with a robotaxi service. There are lots of reasons that should be obvious. If you want, we can do a longer discussion.

Eventually, FSD will be good enough everywhere that you can start a robotaxi service anywhere. But that day is far from now and the logistics of such a universal service can not be put into place quickly. It will need to grow organically over a longish period of time.

Or think of this. Uber started out geofenced and it still is as it is not available everywhere. But at the start, it was only available in certain cities. And Uber didn't have to solve FSD. It was geofenced because of logistics. The same will be true when Tesla starts its robotaxi service. You have to start somewhere, not everywhere.

People seem to seriously underestimate the logistical challenge of operating a robotaxi fleet at scale. It will be very difficult and very expensive.

 

[Andy O]

Over sample in SF will change the FSD experience in St Louis for example

I disagree that the experience might be worsened in one of the places. The samples from both cities might include local information that makes the driving better in both places, using the local information.

 

[capster]

Whatever Tesla gives the media they will just do their best to pull apart. And imo it's more important what Tesla does that what they say, if Wallstreet want to leave money on the table that's up to them, in the long run what matters will be the real thing, not the perception.

I am fine with Tesla giving a vague guidance while executing towards 10-20M by 2030, while investing heavily into compute for robotaxi and optimus, while building new mega phacktories, new huge plants in mexico, lithium refining, LFP production etc. If wallstreet cannot see the writing on the wall for 2026-2030 that's their problem...

This

 

[capster]

Someone is pickpocketing him!

Or…

 

[Mardak]

given previous estimates of $250k for a 4 post Supercharger and the peak item value of $100k/30% = $333k

There are much larger Supercharger installations too that could easily reach $100k if it were still capped per location. If we just extrapolate $250k/4-posts to the 2 large California Superchargers under construction, 64 stalls in Upland, CA and 80 stalls (32 + 48 + solar + diner) in Hollywood, CA might have refueling property costs of $4M and $5M respectively and potentially getting a combined $2.7M tax credit instead of limited to the old $60k or $200k if still "per location."

At this time it doesn't appear there is any great push to open up Superchargers in less populous locations.

The eligible locations are quite different from "less populous" locations. The 2 examples above seem to be eligible for the full 30% according to the census tract mapping tool and both are in Greater Los Angeles where 5 miles within Upland includes probably 500k+ people from Rancho Cucamonga and Ontario while 5 miles within Hollywood is 1M+ including Beverly Hills. In fact, Tesla Palo Alto Engineering HQs (both old Deer Creek and new Page Mill) are "non-urban" while nearby Stanford is "low-income" potentially because of college students.