Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

tv show/cartoon(?) in the 80's/90's that talked about a sword whose edge was so thin it would cut your skin before you could even see it

Darkwing Duck?

 

[MartinAustin]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1754259298123657725

Meanwhile, they have restarted the end-of-quarter push on the Model Y! Did Model 3 Highland just tank Model Y demand? /s

 

[Usain]

The less hard code there is the less able they are to tell if training in one area will cause a regression in another without extensive testing in every area.

Then you should sell your stock because if you are right then FSD V12 will never work. It will mean that end-to-end is the wrong path.

 

[heltok]

That's.... not really how that works.

The less hard code there is the less able they are to tell if training in one area will cause a regression in another without extensive testing in every area.

The way Tesla does this is that they unit test their software 1.0 code, but do functional tests for their software 2.0 code. There are videos where Karpathy explains this.

They have a growing test set of thousands of situations where the previous systems have failed or situations they thought were important and they see how the new system performs and see how many of the tests it passes. Whenever they do an update to the system, they make sure the system doesn't regress on these functional tests. Sometimes when they do major architectural changes they will regress on some tests and there will be new discovered failure cases added to the growing number of tests.

 

[dhanson865]

 

[dhanson865]

Meanwhile, they have restarted the end-of-quarter push on the Model Y! Did Model 3 Highland just tank Model Y demand? /s
View attachment 1015394

 

[Knightshade]

Then you should sell your stock because if you are right then FSD V12 will never work. It will mean that end-to-end is the wrong path.

You seem to keep misunderstanding the points people are correcting you on about how any of this works and instead replacing them with arguments nobody ever made to instead be mad about.

Literally nobody said end to end will "never work"

But several folks have corrected your misunderstandings on how training is done, how and why regressions happen, problems causable by overfitting, and a number of other factors you appear to be unware of despite having a thesis you claim is largely based on FSD progress.


Again though there's an entire section of these forums devoted to folks discussing this stuff- given how deeply rooted in FSD progress your investment thesis is you might want to check it out instead of just insisting everyone else is wrong.

 

[Bet TSLA]

The judge in this case really displays bias against massive entrepreneurial success.

View attachment 1015404

Would be nice, but I've tried the tesla.com/tradein page to get the trade-in value of my 2017 Model S with FSD (and FUSC) on 2/3, 2/4 (around mid-day) and just now (after 10PM PST on 2/4). Same result every time. The trade-in value is $20,300 (wow, that's low!) and it says "Includes value of Full Self-Driving" and "This vehicle is eligible for a one-time free supercharging transfer if taking delivery of a new vehicle before March 31, 2024. Terms Apply."

Of course maybe it'll say something different tomorrow.

And, by the way, nowhere can I find any clue as to what "Terms Apply." means.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla Raises Prices on M3+; Chair Powell on 60 Minutes; 30-yr Yields UP | Randy Kirk (4 hrs ago)

Price increases!

Tesla (TSLA) on Sunday raised the U.S. price of its Model 3 Long Range variant, after the EV giant had made several price cuts to start 2024. The Model 3 LR price is now $46,990, an increase of $1,000. Tesla kept the U.S. price of its Real-Wheel Drive version at $38,990.

 

[jamaatta]

Could you run a succesfull taxi service company on Artic Circle with Teslas? No way!? A cost of car maintainance would be gigantic? Hertz, Hertz, Hertz... Teslas would be freezing in winter anyway!?

Well, now we have a positive example for Rovaniemi, Lappland, Finland. Less than three years old taxi company, only Teslas (at the moment 56 cars), growing rapidly.

An original article is in Finnish, but Google Translate helps.

(Edit/correction: only two numbers, both wrong; the company is more like four years old, fleet is now 36.Teslas. I hate Mondays.)

Ex-hävittäjälentäjä loi taksiyhtiön Teslojen varaan, ja sitten hinnat romahtivat – Nyt Harri Pusan yrityksellä on 36 autoa ja radikaali suunnitelma

Miten pohjoisen pakkasissa pärjää kymmenien Teslojen kanssa? Sen tietää Harri Pusa, joka perusti Rovaniemelle taksiyhtiön sähköautojen varaan. Kalusto kasvoi nopeasti, mutta sen arvo romahti, kun Tesla leikkasi rajusti hintoja.

www.talouselama.fi

 

[Artful Dodger]

Lol, Lee "The Tesla Economist" has gone full Greg Wester now on twitter. Kinda comical, watching him toss blame around like a monkey flinging feces at the wall, considering he never learns.

DON'T.BET.ON.OPTIONS.MARGERINE.IS.BAD.FOR.YOU.NOBODY.TO.BLAME.BUTT.YOURSELF

 

[mad474]

Congratulations to your target size!

Would you say that April, 13th is a possible date for a Cybertruck presentation? Timo Schadt made a vague save-the-date announcement.

Danke! Two time windows are currently assumed: first half of March and/or mid-April. As a Cybertruck reservationist from the first day (RN1127XXXXX), I would be happy to receive an occasional hint or invitation from Tesla. If something like this happens, I will be happy to report it if the event is not posted publicly anyway.

From another source: Berlin is also expecting a Cybertruck.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1754200698235805726

Translation: I have just received a personal message that a Cybertruck will also be on display in the lobby of the Gigafactory Berlin.

 

[mad474]

100,000,000 shares? Would you care to come over for dinner?

Unfortunately, only 3 of the 9 digits you mentioned match. Can I still come? Alaska is one of our dream destinations.

 

[Ellec]

Lol, Lee "The Tesla Economist" has gone full Greg Wester now on twitter. Kinda comical, watching him toss blame around like a monkey flinging feces at the wall, considering he never learns.

DON'T.BET.ON.OPTIONS.MARGERINE.IS.BAD.FOR.YOU.NOBODY.TO.BLAME.BUTT.YOURSELF

I haven't been following him, he is very angry at Elon, take it he gambled using leverage or options on Tesla short term. Been there, tried that, it doesn't work. No margin, no leverage, no options, just slowly build a large position and hold for a decade or two while the transformation occurs.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I haven't been following him, he is very angry at Elon...

#71

 

[unk45]

It’s the WSJ alleging that Tesla may be breaching the NASDAQ rules, not I.

That WSJ allegation is based on the whole articles contents attempting to imply that not enough of the tesla independent directors are actually independent (echoing the Delaware judge), and therefore do not meet NASDAQ listing requirements.

And as I said, even if NASDAQ decides this is the case, Tesla would still have ample time following notice from NASDAQ (12 months). I cant see how it is in anyway a threat to being delisted as WSJ notes is an outcome of that hypothetical.

The only way that would happen in this hypothetical situation is if Tesla refused to make any changes to its board, after failing to convince NASDAQ with a counter argument that it’s current board was compliant to listing rules.

“Independent director” means a person other than an officer or an employee of the company or its subsidiaries, or any other individual having a relationship that, in the opinion of the Board, would interfere with the exercise of independent judgment in carrying out the responsibilities of a director.”
NASDAQ definition “ Independent Director”.
Clearly the current Delaware Chancery Court judge in question is unconcerned with NASDAQ rules.

 

[Mengy]

I haven't been following him, he is very angry at Elon, take it he gambled using leverage or options on Tesla short term. Been there, tried that, it doesn't work. No margin, no leverage, no options, just slowly build a large position and hold for a decade or two while the transformation occurs.

Yep, he lost a lot of money for himself and his dad using margin and options on TSLA and ever since he's been anti-Tesla and very emotionally erratic. He also isn't very good at analyzing the company or it's potential, he either misses or ignores very important data and segments.

I stopped following him long ago, he's just lost in anger and not adding value to anyone.

 

[unk45]

Yep, he lost a lot of money for himself and his dad using margin and options on TSLA and ever since he's been anti-Tesla and very emotionally erratic. He also isn't very good at analyzing the company or it's potential, he either misses or ignores very important data and segments.

I stopped following him long ago, he's just lost in anger and not adding value to anyone.

Reportedly quite a few Tesla employees followed similar tactics with similar results. For as long as there ahem been tradable securities there ahem been speculators who lost it all, from tulip mania to even earlier.
Bluntly and sadly, people never seem to learn from the errors of the past.

Even now people here ar blindly walking towards disaster even knowing history. Some people gamble with slot machines too. The slimiest of all are the ones who imagine they can actually emulate the success fo 'the house'. Cannot do that without inside information, even then it's very tricky.

 

[Mengy]

Reportedly quite a few Tesla employees followed similar tactics with similar results. For as long as there ahem been tradable securities there ahem been speculators who lost it all, from tulip mania to even earlier.
Bluntly and sadly, people never seem to learn from the errors of the past.

Even now people here ar blindly walking towards disaster even knowing history. Some people gamble with slot machines too. The slimiest of all are the ones who imagine they can actually emulate the success fo 'the house'. Cannot do that without inside information, even then it's very tricky.

I admit there are times I question myself holding TSLA long. Yes I'm fairly confident TSLA will be worth much more in 5-10 years than it is today, but I also admit I could be wrong about that too. Elon could die suddenly and Tesla could fall apart. The competition might finally arrive and slowly bury Tesla into submission. Optimus might not work out. FSD might never get solved. The Gen3 Tesla could be a failure.

Nothing is guaranteed, investing always has risks even when you are confident in a positive outcome. I doubt the Tesla Economist believed he'd lose it all when he invested his way, maybe my way of simply holding long will be wrong too? Maybe we'll never see $415 per share again and we're all fooling ourselves. I don't think we are, but then I don't have a crystal ball either.

All I can do is act given the information I have before me and make a best educated guess, and for today everything points me towards Tesla becoming the largest company by market cap in the world within a decade, and thus I'm holding. Hopefully I'm not wrong about that.

 

[joh01652]

Would be nice, but I've tried the tesla.com/tradein page to get the trade-in value of my 2017 Model S with FSD (and FUSC) on 2/3, 2/4 (around mid-day) and just now (after 10PM PST on 2/4). Same result every time. The trade-in value is $20,300 (wow, that's low!) and it says "Includes value of Full Self-Driving" and "This vehicle is eligible for a one-time free supercharging transfer if taking delivery of a new vehicle before March 31, 2024. Terms Apply."

Of course maybe it'll say something different tomorrow.

And, by the way, nowhere can I find any clue as to what "Terms Apply." means.

Maybe Terms and Conditions here?: https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/trade-in/trade-in-terms-conditions-gb.pdf?redirect=no

Having traded in my 3 for a Y in 2020, I have to say it was an incredibly easy process. Tesla just requires a few photos of the exterior and interior, and after analyzing them they give a contractual quote so you know what they're going to give you for your trade-in before you sign/pay for the new vehicle.

Reading your trade-in quote, I have to admit I've often wondered who would buy an old S or X when one could just get a new 3 or Y with an 8-year 120,000 warranty, better build quality, faster charging, up-to-date AP/FSD, and no worry of having to pay a hefty out-of-warranty repair bill should the battery take a dump shortly after purchase, for about the same price? I can't say I'd recommend buying a used S or X unless there was a solid warranty and/or the buyer had deep pockets and just really really had to have some vintage Tesla for sentimental reasons.

Also, from Tesla's perspective, once they get an old trade-in, they've got to make sure the vehicle is safe/sound, maybe do some maintenance, clean the vehicle, etc, all of which takes time/money, and then resell it at a profitable price. In any event, I feel like $20,000 is a pretty fair price because I can't imagine there's a lot of people out there willing to pay $20,000+ for an out-of-warranty 7-year-old luxury sedan (not a very utilitarian purchase). In my mind, there are three primary types of buyers: those who can barely afford a $4,000 car at all (so not going to buy a used S), those who can sort of afford (but not really) a $20,000+ car (who probably aren't going to look at an out-of-warranty used S), and those who can just buy whatever car they want whenever and trade it in when a new whiz-bang car catches their fancy (probably not an old out-of-warranty S).